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CURRENT INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY

Document Type: 
CREST [1]
Collection: 
General CIA Records [2]
Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 
CIA-RDP79-00927A000100200001-0
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RIPPUB
Original Classification: 
S
Document Page Count: 
20
Document Creation Date: 
December 15, 2016
Document Release Date: 
April 15, 2004
Sequence Number: 
1
Case Number: 
Publication Date: 
October 16, 1953
Content Type: 
REPORT
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25X1 F~ease 2004/06/24 :CIA-RDP79-00927A1~10~~9~01~, `~ ~~ OCI NO. q~56 16 Qctober 1953 CURRENT INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY c ~~,~ftiT r~o. ~~ Ci~~;LP~.S:~!rlcD ~~ P.cXT i~cVIFVJ ~~1TE: ~~ f~EVIEWER:.~ CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY OFFICE OF CURRENT It`JTELLIGENCE RET 25X1 25X1 SEC* STATE review(s) completed. Approved For Release 2004/06/24 :CIA-RDP79-00927A000100200001-0 Approved For Ruse 2004/06/24: CIA-RDP79-00927AOOi~`00200001-0 This material contains information affecting the Natipnal Aefer~se of the Unit~,d States within the meaning of the espionage laws, Title 18, USC, Secs. 793 and 794, the transm;issipn or revelation of which in any manner to an unauthorized person is prphibited by law. Approved For Release 2004/06/24: CIA-RDP79-00927A000100200001-0 Approved For Rel~e 2004/06/24 ? ,~~~'79-00927AOOQ~~,p0200001-0 SUMMARY OF ~IJNTENTS THE SOVIET WORLD P e . P . Page 4 YUGOSLAV REACTION TO THE AMERICArt-BRITISH ANNOUNCEMENT ON TRIESTE . . P P ? Page 6 . P . , Yugoslavia?s violent reaction to the American- British decision on Trieste is intended to delay with- drawal of Allied troops from Zone A. Belgrade would prefer to-use diplomatic means tc~ avoid a showdown but has committed itself to military action .should Italian troops enter Zone A. PROSPECTS FOR SETTLING .THE SAAR QUESTION P P Page 8 Forthcoming French-German negotiations for a Saar settlement, which is a prerequisite for French ratifi- cation of EDC, will take place in the context of the more favorable diplomatic situation produced by the ;6 September West German election? FISHING DISPUTE.OBSTRUCTS NORMAL .JAPANESE-KOREAN. RELATIONS P ? P P ? . Page 10 ? ? . ? P P P ? Renewed efforts to regularize Japanese-Korean re- lations, following the recent South Korean seizures of Japanese fishing vessels, offer little prospect of success because of mutual unwilli~igness to make con- cessionsP (SEE MAP) NEW SATELLITE APPROACH TO CHRONIC AGRICULTURAL PROBLEMS ? ? P Page 13 P 9 P P 9 O 6 P O P O In an effort to raise agricultural production which has not yet reached prewar level, the Eastern European governments in recent months have introduced new agri- cultural policies including increased state aid to peasants and substantial material incentives. 25X1 Approved For Release 2004/06/24: CIA-RDP79-00927A000100200001-0 Approved For Release 2004/06/24: CIA-RDP79-00927A000100200001-0 SECRET ARABS .DEMAND HIGHER OIL ROYALTIES a e o e e e Page 15 The Western oil industry in the Middle East is faced with another round of Arab dem~~nds for higher revenueso (SEE MAP) SPECIAL ARTICLE, ANALYSIS OF THE PURGES IN THE USSR's E RGIAN REPUBLIC a e 4 o a a o o Page lg The nature of the purges in Georgia since T951 suggests that Beria was held personally responsible for the Georgian political situationo Then purges therefore shed some light on the changing fortunes of Beria throughout this periodo Approved For Release 2004/06/24: CIA-RDP79-00927A000100200001-0 Approved For Rise 2004/06/24~~f~a79-00927A0~"00200001-0 25X1 The Soviet Union's demand that the UN Security Council try again to set up an international administration-for the .Free Territory of Trieste, together with. the 12 .October Soviet note, represents an attempt to capitalize. on the dispute in the hope of thwarting a Trieste settlement and to maintain the pose of upholding peace treaties, The Soviet note did not mention Yugoslavia, and Ambassador. Bohlen believes that the Kremlin. is being careful to avoid the appearance of supporting the Yugoslav position. The Soviet maneuvers may be intended to create suspicions in Allied quar- ters regarding Soviet-Yugoslav relations. Yugoslav UN dele- gates, however, reportedly had attempted to dissuade Vyshinsky from making the proposal at this time, A Pravda editorial of 12 October addressed itself to re- cent sugg-es'~i'ons from the West that Soviet fear of attack might be relieved by some kind of nonaggression pact, Ignoring the proposals advanced by Churchill, Adenauer and the French UN delegate, Pravda centered its attack on "utterances by a number of leading~me cans to the effect that NATO might allegedly become 'a guarantee of security' for all European states, in- cluding the USSR." This treatment suggests that Moscow is anxious to avoid even an exchange of views on a nonaggression commit- ment since it would inevitably raise-such explosive issues as permanent frontiers, and Soviet domination of Eastern Europe,' and would even challenge the alleged Communist apprehensions of the outside world's aggressive intentions. Pravda's reaction appeared to hint that, in the event of an ac u~al ~iestern offer of a security pact, the Soviet leaders would demand the dissolution of NATO and American withdrawal from overseas. bases before they would seriously consider such an arrangement. After the failure of repeated Communist attempts to induce .the UN to reconsider on the composition of the Korean political conference, Chou En-lai on 10 Octolber accepted the United States' proposals for a meeting to discuss time and place for the con- ference to be held, 4 SECRET Approved For Release 2004/06/24: CIA-RDP79-00927A000100200001-0 Approved For Rese 2004/06/24~~~a79-00927A06~00200001-0 The only modification of Chou's position of 13 September is the dropping of the demand that Chinese and North Korean representatives be invited to conduct "point negotiations" at the UN General Assembly. H~,s current statement waters down, but does not withdraw, the earlier demand for settlement of the composition question before discussing the time and place. Chows statement was probably timed to give new life to Western hopes that Moscow's professed interest in reducing in- ternational tension through negoti;~.tions is genuine. The Con-- munists-still appear to see a greater gain for the immediate future in exploiting the actual an~i potential differences of opinion between the United States sand other UN members on pro- cedural questions than by negotiat:Lng on substantive issues. 5 .SECRET 25X1 Approved For Release 2004/06/24: CIA-RDP79-00927A000100200001-0 Approved For Release 2004/06/246E,C~$~bP79-00927A0100200001-0 25X1 YUGOSLAV REACTION TO THE AMERICAN-BRITISH ANNOUNCEMENT ON TRIESTE Yugoslavia's violent reaction to the Anglo-American decision to turn over the administration of Zane A of Trieste to Italy is intended to delay withdrawal of Allied troops from the zone. Belgrade would prefer to use diplomatic means to avoid a showdown, but has committed-itself to military action should. Italian troops enter `Lone A. In his speeches of 10 and 11 October, Tito emphasized that Yugoslavia would consider the entrance of Italian troops into Zone A as an act of aggression, and warned that Yugoslav forces would march into the zone the moment such a move was attempted, The Yugoslavs have reportedly sent one marine and one paratroop unit to .Zone B, and have reinforced the areas bordering the Free Territory and Italy with one infantry and elements. of one tank division. The Yugoslav assistant military. attache in Rome told an American official that three additional divisions, one naval and one air unit had been ordered to .positions along the Yugoslav-zonal boundary. By closing the zonal boundaries Yugoslavia has ,prevented confirmation of strength increases in Zone B, but observations by American officials tend to supp~~rt reports that reinforcements -have been moved into the border ar~aas. It is possible that Yugo- slavia intends merely to stage a military demonstration designed to-give added force to its diplomatic moves, However, the move- ment of troops into the immediate vicinity of the Italian border would heighten tension in that are;, and increase Yugoslavia's capabilities for attack should Belrade decide to resort to force. Belgrade has attempted by thr~:ats and diplomatic maneuvers to farce the United States and Gre;~,t Britain to choose between a four-.power conference for reconsideration of the 8 October- demarche on Trieste, or a United Nations debate on the dispute as a "threat to the peace," JustijPying its action on grounds that the United States and Great Britain have violated the Italian Peace Treaty of 1947 and oj~fered.a "concession to Italian expansionism,'' which poses a direct threat to the- national se- curity of Yugoslavia, Belgrade on ]L2 October brought the issue to the UN's attention. The Yugoslav note to the United Nations, however, expressed the hope that action by the international body might be obviated by an elimination of the "rising danger- ous situation" through direct negotiations with Yugoslavia, the United States, Great Britain, and ]Italy, Approved For Release 2004/06/24: CIA-RDP79-00927A000100200001-0 Approved For Re`se 2004/06/24~E9~79-00927AOE=1Q?100200001-0 2.5X1 Concurrent Yugoslav notes to the United States and Great Britain emphasized that there would be no object to the suggested four-,power .conference unless action on the American-British de- cision was in the meantime delayed. By taking this action, Belgrade hoped at least to delay f;he withdrawal of American- British forces from Zone A, and ,possibly to win a more favorable settlement.. Despite Tito's assurances that neither East nor West will be allowed to exploit the ,pressured which have been brought against him as a result of his firm attitude on Trieste, Yugo- slavia's ,present ,position is highly vulnerable to Soviet di- visive tactics. Anticipating the ,possibility that his belliger- ent attitude might affect Yugoslavia's relations with the West. 'and lead to a.cut in Western assistance, Tito has ,publicly taken the .position that "we cannot sell our country for this aid." The-USSR has already entered the dispute by protesting against the unilateral decision of the United States and Britain and demanding that the United Nati~~ns .proceed with the estab- lishment of a Free Territory of Trieste according to the terms of the Italian Peace Treaty of 194'7. This Soviet proposal is entirely unacceptable to the count~~ies directly concerned with the problem, and will only confuse the issue further, Belgrade has assumed a stand i"rom which it will have great difficulty retreating, Commitmeni;s have been made which the Yugoslavs will find impossible to ~.gnore and damaging to with- draw, and Tito has raised the stakes by allowing. the issue to .assume the ,pro,portions of a contest; involving national honor and the ,prestige of his ,party and government . Under the circumstances, Tito cannot easily afford to lose his gamble. If he is unable to win, a more favorable settlement of the Trieste issue or at least effect some change in the American-British solution and thus save face, the passibility that he will choose- to take military action cannot be excluded. The concensus among Allied officials in Trieste is that Tito is sincere in-his threats, and will not tolerate the entrance of Italian troops into Zone A under present circumstances, SECRET Approved For Release 2004/06/24: CIA-RDP79-00927A000100200001-0 Approved For Ruse 200 ~ I ~ - 7A00~00200001-0 PROSPL~CTS FOR SETTLING TI~:~ SAAp, QUESTION .Forthcoming French-German negotiations for a Saar settlement, which is a prerequis:tte for French ratification of EDC, will take place in~the context of the more favorable diplomatic situation produced by the C September West German election. There are still some ~tnatty problems to be re- solved, however, including the pE~rmanence of any proposed solution, the issue of economic eights, and the question of "free elections." Talks between Chancellor AdE~nauer and Foreign Minister Bidault art scheduled to follow i:he preliminary conversations expected to begin on 15 October. Premier Laniel has indicated that he also intends shortly to take a hand in the negotia- tions. Both sides have expressed-confidence that an early agreement can be reached. 25X1 At present the French seem to be waiting for Adenauer to follow up his hint of detailed .plans for a comprehensive settlement, for which the most likely basis is the "~uropeaniza- tion" concept developed by him anal former foreign minister Schuman in 1952 and recently recommended in the van der Goes report to the Council of Europe. The main difficulty will be to devise a formula which will meet France's demand for a definitive solution and at the same time be indefinite enough to overcome German fears that it could be used as a precedent for an eastern .border settlement in any peace treaty negotia- tions. As defined in the Council of Europe report,- under ":Euro- peanization" the Saar would become '':~uropean territory" guaranteed by France, Germany, Britain, and the United States. The territory would have politica~~. autonomy under a European commissioner for external affairs and defense, and a Saar delegation would. be admitted to the assembly of the EDC and the Coal-Steel Community. The existing economic union between France and the Saar would be reel;iced by a 5C3-year treaty of "economic cooperation.." Reaction to these recommendations has been fairly favorable ,in the Saar,, somewhat less favorable in the French government, and thus far cool among West German officials. France has indicated that it will not accept a treaty of "economic cooperation" without a guarantee that the French- Saar customs and currency union will continue until a similar Approved For Release 2004/06/24: CIA-RDP79-00927A000100200001-0 Approved For Reese 200 `~ - ~ - 7AOOQ1.00200001-0 25X1 integrated European union is established. In return, the French might agree to offer Germany some special trading status within the framework of the French-Saar customs union. Moreover, they might also approve some other recommendations of the Council's report, including that for a trilateral convention protecting German culture in the Saar. The method of submitting t~o the Saarlanders for approval .any agreement evolving from French-German talks is also unresolved. The Germans, for whom the Saar question is primarily political rather than economic, have maintained that the political rights of pro-German groups in the Saar should be recognized immediately and that any French-German solution should be submitted to a."freely elected" Saar bandtag. -The .French have steadfastly insisted that a popular referendum, limited to acceptance or rejection of the solution, should precede "free elections." ?Although the German stand ~~n this point was supposedly softened last spring ,, Adenauer :raised it again shortly after his electoral victory. He may, however, be imerely attempting; to establish a strong bargainin;; position in order to ensure obtaining a solution which would satisfy Bundestag sentiment.. Aside from rightist opposition to political separation of the Saar, the Bundestag can be expected to demand that any settlement eliminating future r~aunion with Germany must be conditioned firmly on European :integration. Some Christian Democratic leaders are demanding; that-any agreement be subject to revision within ten years and that it be reviewed whenever a peace treaty is negotiated. Some leaders of the minor coalition parties have threatened to leave the government should Adenauer go "too far" in concessions to France. Although the French would most probably refuse to write any provision along these lines into an agreement, Adenauer might be able to secure Bundestag approval of a solution by arguing that such a condition was implicit though not explicit. The Saarlanders,,most of whom accept their present political separation from Germany, continually press the French for more autonomy and therefore will probably not be reluctant to become citizens of the first "European territory.?' 9 SECRET Approved For Release 2004/06/24: CIA-RDP79-00927A000100200001-0 Approved For lease 2 - 927A'~0100200001-0 FISHING DISPUTE OBSTRUCTS NORMAL JAPANESE-KOREAN RELATIONS Renewed efforts to regularize Japanese-Korean relations, .following the recent increase in South Korean seizures of Japanese fishing vessels, offer litl;Ie prospect of success because of mutual unwillingness to make concessions. A basic .Japanese feeling of superiority and the traditional Korean , suspicion of Japan prejudice any attempt to establish normal relations, 25X1 The impasse over fishing righter and property claims caused a recess in July of-the intermittent; negotiations for an over-all settlement which had begun in OctobE~r 1951, This impasse nulli- fied the progress toward agreements on ,such problems as the status. of Korean residents in Japan, a basic treaty, and Korean claims to vessels formerly of Korean registry. President Rhee responded to the suspension of the UN Sea Defense Zone in late August by ordering the South Korean navy to exclude Japanese fishing craft from international waters within the unilaterally imposed "Rhee line" (see map, p. 12). This action directly contravened earlier. UN Command directives. The Korean seizure of Japanese fishing vessels, including an official fisheries patrol boat, provoked a strong popular reaction in Japan spearheaded by politically influential fishing interests. Despite powerful sentiment in the Japanese cabinet for retaliatory moves,. including expulsion of the Korean minis- ter and use of naval craft to protect Japanese .fishing boats, action was postponed in an effort to avoid embarrassing the United States or causing an open break with South Korea. Japan on 24 September proposed that bilateral negotiations be resumed, with priority to be given the fisheries issue, The Japanese ,would have preferred to discuss only the fishing ques- tion, but in deference to President Rhee's insistence on simul- taneous treatment of all issues, they proposed full-scale talks. The new talks began on 6 October. 10 SECRET 25X1 Approved For Release 2004/06/24: CIA-RDP79-00927A000100200001-0 Approved For Ruse 2004/06/24$$~~~p79-00927AOq~10020000~~~ The initial meeting produced n~~ visible sign of a new basis for a settlement. Subsequent talks apparently have convinced the Japanese that South Korea genuinely fears Japanese compe- tition against its poorly equipped :fishing fleet and that Korea will not accept Japan's proposal to settle the fisheries problem by a conservation agreement. The Japanese feel the. Koreans will insist on "reserved areas" as a minimum demand. While Japan cannot formally recognize such areaa,-the implication that it might "voluntarily".refrain from fishing in them may offer limited.-room for nego nation. .The Japanese feel, however, th~~t the conference may quickly reach an impasse over their request that Korea return captured vessels, permit the dispatch of a mission to Pusan to assist the detained fishermen, and suspend seis,ures to create a favorable atmosphere for the negotiations. Even if-Korea rejects this request, Japan probably will not break off the discussions unless internal political pressure ter public opinion forces it. Rhee's attitude toward Japan i~c more vindictive than objective, and a solution of over-a].1 Japanese-Korean issues while Rhee remains. in power is doubtful. Over and-above his life-long anti-Japanese bias, he genuinely fears that the Japanese, with their superior equipment, might eventually monopolize fishing in the waters off Korea. He also believes that aggressiveness on the fisheries question may enable him to extract concessions from Japan on other issues where his bargain- ing position is weaker. Neither of the two governments is likely to make the sub- stantial and politically unpopular concessions necessary for a rapprochement. Since a request for American intervention would probably follow a breakdown of the negotiations, the possibility of the United States being involved increases as the situation is prolonged. SECRET Approved For Release 2004/06/24: CIA-RDP79-00927A000100200001-0 Approved For Rise 2004/06/24 :CIA-RDP79-00927AOQ~00200001-0 -~ .-; U. S. S. R. J HOKKAIDO JAPAN - ~O RE A U N Sea pefense Zone o ~,,... , : _ _ Demarcation Line C81e Approved For Release 2004/06/24 :CIA-RDP79-00927A000100200001-0 Approved For Ruse 200 NEW SATELLITE APPROACH TO CHRONIC AGRICULTURAL P:~,OBLEMS In an effort to raise agricultural praduction,which has not yet reached prewar levels, the Eastf;rn European governments in recent months have ..introduced new agricultural policies including increased state aid to peasants and substantial material incen- tives. Agricultural production since the war has suffered from emphasis on heavy industry and from the peasants' low morale and resistance to collectivization. 25X1 The first of these-new policies was announced in East- Germany in June, and by mid-September all the Satellites had followed. suit in varying degrees. In Hungary, Rumania and Albania,concessions have been more extensive than in Poland and Czechoslovakia, possibly because of fear of peasant resistance to this year's crop collection program.. Farmers in the first three countries have been promised additional equipment and consumer, goods, their debts and quota arrears caused by the natural.clisasters of 1952 have been canceled, and taxes and quotas on future crops have been reduced. In Poland, Czechoslovakia, and East Germany, agricultural investments will be increased and debts in arrears will be canceled or payments postponed, In Czechoslovakia and Hungary increased credits are to be extended, largely for the purchase of fertilizer, and higher prices are to be paid to the peasants for some crops. Substantially lower delivery quotas were decreed in East Germany, where the agricultural Iabor~ shortage has been aggravated by the flow of people from the countryside to industry and by defection to the YYest, Similar reductions are to apply to both private and collective farmers in a11?of Eastern Europe, although concessions to collective farmers-are more extensive, Announcements of the new policies were accompanied by assur- ances of the voluntary nature of collectivization and emphasis on the need for consolidation and cautious expansion of the col- lectives.- In Hungary, however, Premier Nagy's 4 July speech. prom- ising that members could leave collectives at-the end of the harvest was interpreted by many peasants as signaling the abandon- ment of collectivization. Many prega~^ed to withdraw immediately, thereby endangering the harvest and causing confusion and poor morale in local party cadres. Approved For Release 2004/06/24: CIA-RDP79-00927A000100200001-0 Approved For Ree 2004/06/24 :~itt'.RD~79-00927AOOq,~0200001-0 Since then, the Hungarian regime ha.s restricted the right to withdraw from collectives by discriminatory measures and by threatening peasants with severe penalties, Leaders in other Satellites have carefully avoided promising peasants permission to withdraw. 25X1 These new Satellite policies represent an adaptation to local conditions of recent concessions made in the USSR in order to promote greater agricultural production, The chief difference between the Soviet and Satellite policies is that the Soviet con- cessions are aimed at getting increased production from collect- ivized peasants-while in the Satellites, where private farms are still responsible for considerably more than half of the agricul- tural production, concessions are being made not only to the collectivized-sector, but also to 'the independent peasants, and in some cases at the expense of thE; collectivization program, The new policy also places emphasis. on raising-the low level of mechanization which has handicapaped agriculture in Eastern Europeo Since the domestic .industry is.unable to fulfill the need for implements, the Soviet Union hays made commitments to aid Czech agricultural mechanization and pos~;ibly other Satellites as well. However, a 29 September decree of t;he Supreme Soviet stated that the USSR would place orders for sorr~e types of agricultural equip- ment with the People's Democracies< It seems unlikely that Satel- lite agriculture will receive substantial aid from the Soviet Jnion, The lack of consumer goods in rural areas and the policy of discrimination between private and collective farms will continue to handicap agricultural production. In late September and early October the governments of Hungary, Poland, and Czechoslovakia began to complain that despite a good harvest, deliveries to the state were lagging, This lag was partially caused by the peasants' belief that additional concessions would be made and by their reluctance, in view of past currency reforms and forced loans, to surrender their crops until more consumer goods become available, The governments have stressed that no new concessions are con- templated, and in Hungary laggards were threatened with a ten percent increase in quotas4 The new policies, therefore, are not adequate to salve the acute Eastern European agricultural problem, Food shortages and peasant resistance can be expected i~o continue, Approved For Release 2004/06/24: CIA-RDP79-00927A000100200001-0 Approved Felease 2004/0~~~i~-RDP79-009000100200001-0 ARABS DEMAND HIGHER OIL. ROYALTIES. The Western oil industry in the Middle East is faced with another round of Arab demands four higher oil revenues. Saudi Arabia is currently challenging the justice of the pricing arrangements under which it makes a 50-50 .split of the profits with the Arabian American. Oil Company (ARAMCO). Negotiations are Scheduled to be reo~~ened on 8 November and judging by the past, Saudi Arabia will try to reinforce its position with crippling restrictions on-the operations of the company if it px?oves too stubborn (sere map p. 1?) . In the end, however, ARAMCO will. probably yield, thus permitting the first inroads on the ~~0-50 principle which the, company hopefully introduced into Mid'~dle East oil operations in .1950. Eventually the Arabs may demand successively higher percentages of the revenues. Any Saudi gains will set new goals for the other oil- producing states -- Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar and Bahrein -- which oUtained 50-50 agreements shortly after Saudi Arabia. ? The Saudi negotiations will in part set the pace for Leb,- anon and Syria, where a new aspect oi' the. problem is being raised. Jealous of their rich oil-producing neighbors, the states with transit pipelines argue that"Arab oil" should be more equitably shared among all F~rabs. While this argu- ment promises to figure prominently i.n intra-Arab politics and finance, its present impact is felt in demands that the pipeline companies share the "profit:c" realized by shipping ail thx^ough pipelines rather than by tanker through the Suez Canal, The companies stoutly insist that such a principle is not applicable to a transport industry and that the present fixed-fee arrangement should prevail. They are the objects of press campaigns in both Lebanon and ;>yria. Lebanon still refuses to ratify a 1952 agreement with Iraq Petroleum and demands the renegotiation of a 1952 agree- ment with TAPLINE, ARAMCO?s pipeline company. The Beirut gov- ernment says-that it cannot accept these agreements because they were signed by the late, discredited Khoury regime. The compan~.es cite the Lebanese actions ~~s exemplifying the indus- try's need for. long-term security and protection from unilateral denunciation of agreements. 15 SECRET 25X1 Approved For Release 2004/06/24: CIA-RDP79-00927A000100200001-0 Approved For Fuse 2YA4/A6/~~~~~BR79 A~,27A1~100200001-0 In Syria, President Shishakli is expected soon to reopen long-pending negotiations with Ir.ac~ Petroleum with a "share the profits" demand calling for $2F~,000,000 annually rather than the current $4,720,000. He ha.s suggested that Syria receive 49 percent and Iraq Petroleum 51 percent of the sav- ings effected by pipeline as against tanker shipment. These negotiations are partly coordinated with the Lebanese and are closely watched by Jordan and Egypt. Astride the Suez Canal, Egypt may emerge from the current Anglo-Egyptian nego- tiations as a dominant factor in setting tanker rates and thus would be in a position to make common cause with the transit states vis-a-vis either the producing states or the pipeline companies, The Arab League's recently established Petroleum Commit- tee has recommended that the Arab countries take over the production and distribution of oil in order to prevent leak- age to Israel and also that steps be taken to prevent the Western powers from fixing prices without ,prior consultation with the producing states. Rivalry among the Arab states may eventually force the producing states to~make favorable loans or grants to the transit states. In the coming negotiations, however, the Arab states will be united against the companies in unremit- ting pressure .for a greater share of the profits. 16 SECRET 25X1 Approved For Release 2004/06/24: CIA-RDP79-00927A000100200001-0 Approved For Release 2004/06/24 :CIA-RDP79-00927A000100200001-0 t! ~ r . 2W SOa~.,.::..,;l~s ,^r~'-nebd__.._.~5"Kp !! 'l5am L6r3a ~ L U ~C' ~ ~' ~S ~ ~~1~ ~`;F,"a~i~:,~U ~~t~~~~~ ~* r~i~~. 7F L~;s ~ -~ ,~,,a CRUDE PRODUCTION ANNUAL .....16,00.000 ?? EGTPT ...... __. . 'Q~7.1 . ................10.600.000 no . _ _ _ . _ ..... _. 1A0,690,000 .. 4,773.810.000 bW~ w..,oiy 11MKEY ... ....... ......1]9.000 ~ __ " ~ TOTAL -..__. ....779.00].700 bbls. INDDIf FAST - ~ ncealC:OY I'ADA(1TY 1711 %~ ~~ ~//.ry~ V I"/rn/~,,; ~a S y ~~~~ \ M/ll~~lir ' L1A1LY.. _lssano ulh. oe< aav %.. ~ ', RED \~ ?3 v ~m - .. .. ~ ?~ -- :!@.~ ., .. .. woo wQ"?` NWajb~ 19AQ _. __.-0.300 10.969.000 bbh. ~., ~ // ~~ ..;.~,~ ` rota.- ...... _,-,~.~ bGs. vg ~ rab+~ d pss~ I\ 27A000100200001 0 31U14 Approved Release ~nndinB~R.~fE_Rnp~a_OOA000100200001-0 ANALYSIS OF THE PURGES I2d THE USSR'S GEORGIAN REPUBL:[C The purges and counterpurges in the Georgian Republic over the past two years were apparently touched off by Stalin's strong personal interest in his native republic's affairs and perhaps by some degree of high-level political maneuvering against Beriao The 1951-1952 purges in the republic's party and gover nment administration suggested that Stalin held Beria personally responsible for the degreE~ of corruption which had developed there? -The April 1953 developments showed that with Stalin out o~ the way, Beria-was proceeding with a free hand to return many of his earlier followers to power, In the latest purge, last September, Beria's associates were again ousted, and it appeared that henceforth Georgian- affairs would be run by Khrushchev, the party first secretary in Moscow, who would not be influenced by national tieso Beria rose~to national prominence during the 1930's through police and party work in the Caucasus, In 1938 he left his post. as .first secretary of the Georgian party to become head of the NKVD, but it was assumed that he retained great influence over party affairs in his. native republics In 1951-52, however, top Georgian party and government leaders, many of them Beria pro- teges, were replaced on charges of corruption and leniency toward the growth of local as opposed to Soviet nationalismv Many .characteristics of these purges suggest that they were to Beria's disadvantage, and it is significant ghat Soviet press coverage of the period often attributed the house-cleaning to Stalin's personal instructions o. In April of this year, following Stalin's death, the 1951- 52 purges were dramatically exposed as a provocative plot to discredit loyal party cadres and incii;e feelings of national hatred4 All three party secretaries and nine members of the 13-man burg were removedo This was followed by an extensive replacement of the republic's ministei?ial personnelo Three men who had been arrested in the 1951-52 shake-ups were exonerated and given key positions in the new gover nmento This reversal closely resembled the reversal of the doctors .plot on 4 Aprilo In fact, the alleged ringleaders of the two 25X1 Approved For Release 2004/06/24: CIA-RDP79-00927A000100200001-0 Approvec~ir Relea - -00~7A0 25X1 .plots were linked together in the Georgian press as being ,partners in crime. Both reversals, clearly repudiating actions taken during Stalin's lifetime which had appeared to reflect un- favorably on Beria, probably resulted from the increase in Beria's pawer and freedom of action after Stalin's death, Members of the new leadership elected in April were pointed- ly described in the ,press as "men trained under the best son of Georgia and Stalin's companion, Lavrenti Beria," and analysis of their careers supports this statement. Of the 13 members of the newly elected buro, six including th~~ first secretary had served ,previously on the 1938 buro headed by Berta. Two other members of this group, V, M, Bakradze, the chairman of the Council of Ministers, and V. G. Dekanozo~r, the MVD minister, had had particularly long associations with Beria. Bakradze was second secretary of thE~ Georgian Central Com- mittee under Beria from 1934 to 19370 DE~kanozov's career also began in Georgia, where he worked in the secret police under Beria from-1921 to 1931. HP was apparent;Iy one. of-the few Georgians Beria. brought with-him to Moscow in 1938. These appointments once again gave Fteria control over .Georgian affairs. Following his downfall. in July, however, virtually all of these Long-time associates were replaced: A party plenum on 20 Septemb:r noted that the Georgian party buro and Council of Ministers had failed to fulfill the July decree of the all-Union central committee of the party, the decree which ousted Berta from his party and government .posts, The first secretary of the party was replaced and a new central com- mittee buro elected from which all of Beria's earlier appointees to ,party ,posts were absent. Subsequent decrees removed-the chairman and key members of the Council of Ministers, Signifi- cantly, the plenum was attended by all-Union party secretary N, N, Shatalin, who was probably sent from Moscow to assure that the reorganization would be thorougho The new leadership is composed primarily of Georgians who .played no major role in the ,political maneuverings of the last two years< The first secretary, V, T. Mzhavanadze, although a native of Georgia, gained his party exper~.ence in the Ukraine, It appears that the Kremlin, in ap,pointin~; such officials, is attempting to neutralize the bitter factionalism of the last two yearso With the exodus of Stalin and Beria, it is unlikely that Georgian Iocal politics will again be used) by top Soviet leaders in their ,personal maneuverings for ,power. Instead of being con- trolled by an influential native son in Moscow, Georgia will be relegated ?o the position of the other Soviet r.erublics,whose .party affairs are on the whole uniformly and impersonally directed by the all-Union secretariato Approved For Release 2004/06/24: CIA-RDP79-00927A000100200001-0

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