DCI WORLDWIDE BRIEFING: STATUS AND OUTLOOK FOR THE IRAN-IRAQ WAR

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85T00287R001300330001-3
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 4
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 2, 2010
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: January 20, 1983
• Content Type: REPORT

Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/08/02: CIA-RDP85T00287R001300330001-3
DCI Worldwide Briefing
20 January 1983
Status and Outlook for the Iran-Iraq War
Overview
Iraq continues to pursue diplomatic initiatives which could
lead to a cease-fire in the Gulf; while Khomeini has turned aside
all suggestions for a negotiated settlement. Iraq will be
careful to calibrate any attacks against Iranian oil exports with
its diplomatic initiatives. We expect the ground war, on the
other hand, to remain stalemated at least through the winter.
Iraqi Diplomatic Initiatives
Iraq will delay any dramatic escalation of its air strikes
in the Gulf until current diplomatic initiatives have run their
course. In mid January, Baghdad indicated that it would delay
striking Iranian oil exports for several weeks to allow Japan to
broker a deal with Iran. Iraq would agree not to bomb the huge
Japanese-built petrochemical complex near the Iranian port at
Bandar-e Khomeini if Japan can convince Iran to allow Iraqi oil
exports through the Gulf. The Japanese doubt that Iran will
agree; we share this view. We also think Iraq is willing to
allow more than a few weeks for the Japanese effort to succeed.
Iraq also is engaged in a diplomatic campaign to convince
the West to curtailing arms supplies to Iran. Baghdad also wants
Western oil companies not to purchase Iranian oil. Iraq hopes
that, if both Iran's arms supplies and revenues are substantially
curtailed, Tehran will be forced to end the war.
In case these diplomatic initiatives are unsuccessful, Iraq
also is arranging the construction of oil pipelines through Saudi
Arabia and Jordan. If Iraq is able either to export oil through
the Gulf or, more likely, to build pipelines through Saudi Arabia
or Jordan, it will significanlty alleviate its economic
problems. If this effort were successful, we believe Baghdad
would be unlikely to escalate its air attacks in the Gulf.
SECRET
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.Iraqi Military Preparations
Should its diplomatic initiatives fail, Iraq recently has
taken steps to strengthen its military capability to strike
Iranian oil exports in the Gulf. During the past several weeks
Iraq has increased its air and missile forces near the Persian
its Super Etendard aircraft from northern Iraq to an airfield
near the Gulf in mid January. In early January Baghdad made
major personnel changes in its Army and Air Force to put more
aggressive commanders in key positions. The military also has
drafted operational directives for 1984 calling for increased
attacks on Iranian oil production and export facilities.
Iranian Military Preparations
Iran also recently has made moves which suggest it will step
up air activity against Iraq. In late 1983 Iran appointed a new,
more aggressive commander for its Air Force. Subsequently,
Iranian aircraft have carried out two air raids on targets inside
Iraqi, the first Iranian air raids inside Iraq in over a year.
With only about 70 operational fighter aircraft remaining,
however, Iran cannot afford heavy aircraft losses. Iraq has
about 450 operational aircraft and is in a much better position
to sustain major air losses.
Iran also continues to seek equipment which could be used to
close the Strait of Hormuz; including naval mines from Italy,
maintenance help from Turkey for Iran's Harpoon antiship
missiles, and Exocet antiship missiles through a private Austrian
There has been no major redeployment of Iranian air and
naval units to the Strait of Hormuz. We believe that Iran has
the capability to close the Strait of Hormuz if faced with
oppositon only from the Persian Gulf states, but could not keep
the Strait closed against Western forces. Iran normally has one
squadron of F-4 fighter aircraft, three destroyers, and four
frigates at Bandar Abbas on the Strait. Iran has naval mines
from North Korea and is capable of conducting sabotage, commando
raids, or air attacks against Gulf oil facilities.
Outlook
The ground war likely will remain quiet until this spring,
and, even then, Iran is unlikely to achieve a major
breakthrough. Iraq simply has too great a margin of superiority
in conventional military equipment. The Iraqis are trying to
achieve their objectives--increased revenues and an end to the
war--through diplomacy. Baghdad will calibrate its military
moves to its assessment of the diplomatic situation. If it
senses a deadlock in efforts to increase its oil exports either
through the Gulf or through Saudi Arabia and Jordan then we
believe Iraq will escalate its strikes in the Gulf.
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Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/08/02 : CIA-RDP85T00287R001300330001-3
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/08/02 : CIA-RDP85T00287R001300330001-3
SUBJECT: DCI Worldwide Briefing
Status and Outlook for the Iran-Iraq War
NESA M 84-10038
Distribution:
Orig - DCI
1 - DDCI
1 - DCI/SA/IA
1 - EXEC REGISTRY
1 - DDI
1 - NIO/NESA
1 - C/PES
1 - D/NESA
2 - NESA/PPS
4 - CPAS/CMD/CB
1 - NESA/PG
2 - NESA/PG/I
ORIG:NESA/PG/I
(20Jan84)
3
SECRET
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/08/02 : CIA-RDP85T00287R001300330001-3
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/08/02 : CIA-RDP85T00287R001300330001-3
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/08/02 : CIA-RDP85T00287R001300330001-3