INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM: PROSPECTS FOR VIOLENCE DURING THE US PRESIDENTIAL INAUGURATION

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85T01058R000303650001-9
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 6
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: April 12, 2010
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: January 3, 1985
• Content Type: MEMO

')cv-I
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/04/12 : CIA-RDP85T01058R000303650001-9
365
3 JAN 1P.9-5
SUBJECT: International Terrorism: Prospects for Violence
During the US Presidential Inauguration 25X1
1. The attached memorandum represents our current
assessment of the foreign terrorist threat to the Presidential
inauguration and related events during the 18-21 Januar 1984
period. This assessment,
concludes that while the potentia threat cannot be dismissed,
there is no information at this time to indicate that foreign
groups intend to target US inaugural activities.
25X1
2bAl
2. This memorandum was prepared by analysts from the
Terrorism/Narcotics Analysis Divison. 25X1
3. Your questions and comments on this memorandum are
welcome and may be addressed to the Chief, Terrorism Analysis
Branch, OGI on
25X1
25X1
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/04/12 : CIA-RDP85T01058R000303650001-9
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/04/12 : CIA-RDP85T01058R000303650001-9
SUBJECT: International Terrorism: Prospects for Violence During
the US Presidential Inauguration GI M 85-10004
OGI/TNAD/TAR,I
31 December 84)
Distribution:
1 - Mr. Edward V. Hickey Jr. , White House
1 - Capt. Gary Marenna, Anacostia Annex
1 - SA/DDCI
1 - ExDir
1 - DDI
1 - ADDI
1 - DDI Registry
1 - DDI/PES
1 - CPAS/ISS
1 - NIO/WE
1 - D/OGI, D D/ OG I
8 - OGI/PG/Ch
1 - DDO/CPN/0
1 - OGI/TNAD/Ch
1 - OGI/TNAD/TA/Ch
1 -
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/04/12 : CIA-RDP85T01058R000303650001-9
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/04/12 : CIA-RDP85TO1058R000303650001-9
International Terrorism: Prospects for Violence During
the US Presidential Inauguration
The 21 January public swearing in and attendant events
surrounding the inauguration of President Reagan will present an
inviting opportunity for politically malcontented foreigners bent
on violence to air their grievances on an international stage
while simultaneously striking a blow at the United States or
visiting foreign dignitaries. This report assesses the
likelihood that organized foreign terrorist groups might attempt
to use this occasion to launch an attack on individuals or
facilities involved in the ceremonies. our focus is nrincina1Iv
on the ma 'or groups
whose prior behavior has indicated a willingness or
desire to targetIUS interests or foreigners present or residin
in this county.
Current Threat Level
At the present time, we have no indication
that any foreign terrorist group or state patron or terrorism
contemplating either initiating an incident at the inaugural
25X1
2bAl
25X1
25X1
ceremonies or instigating one by sympathizers or agents already
in the United States. The Intelligence Community nevertheless
continues to monitor the situation very closely.
lAttacks by foreign terrorist groups represent only one of a
number of possible types of potential threats of violence to the
inauguration. Attacks by groups with no foreign ties as well as
by assorted "crazies" acting on their own initiative are at least
as likely if not more so. To the extent such sources of trouble
are susceptible to prior detection, they would fall under the
purview of Federal and local police agencies.
GI M 85-10004
January 1985
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/04/12 : CIA-RDP85TO1058R000303650001-9
11 "I
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/04/12 : CIA-RDP85T01058R000303650001-9
Although terrorist attacks against US interests and
personnel worldwide have remained at high levels since the late
1970s and recent casualties have been unprecedently high,
terrorist incidents occurring in the United States have actually
declined over the past three years. Thirteen terrorist acts
occurred in the United States this year--compared with 31 in 1983
and 51 in 1982. [none of these was committed by foreign
terrorists. Although the reasons for this are not entirely
clear, we suspect they relate in large part to the fact that
foreign terrorists with the greatest incentive to target this
country find it easier and more appropriate to do so near their
home bases. During the 1984 Summer Olympics held in Los Angeles,
for example, no foreign terrorist group attempted to mount an
attack against the participants, despite some prior concerns to
Regardless of these present indications concerning terrorist
operations, we cannot dismiss the potential for terrorist
violence at the inauguration because the United States is
vulnerable. A determined foreign terrorist would have minor
difficulty gaining entry to the United States given the openness
of our society and the ease of entry across our borders. A
committed terrorist--of the kind we are now encountering in
Lebanon--willing to lay down his or her life in the attempt could
cause considerable damage, at the same time requiring little
support from co-conspirators or accomplices. The inauguration--
like the Olympics--is a high profile activity that occurs
infrequently, and the Reagan administration has earned particular
enmity from some of the most virulent practitioners of terror
To the extent that foreign groups pose a threat to the
inauguration, trouble is most likely to come from state-sponsored
terrorists who want to harm either US officials or foreign exiles
present in the United States and from separatist/irredentist
groups who want to strike at foreign diplomats. Some foreign
terrorist groups--the Red Army Faction, radical Shia groups that
use the name Islamic Jihad, the Italian Red Brigades--are
virulently anti-US and kill Americans, but their activities have
been confined to their specific regions overseas and there is no
reason to suspect they will target the inauguration. However, a
self-styled copycat inspired by sensationalist terrorist acts
abroad might try to mount an attack during the inauguration as a
gesture of sympathy for foreign guerrillas and without any
support from outside the country. Unfortunately, this type of
action is rarely susceptible to intelligence detection and any
State Sponsored Terrorism
Among those countries using terrorism as a foreign policy
tool are Iran, Libya, and Cuba. Iran's immense hostility towards
the United States and demonstrated capabilities and willingness
to launch high casualty attacks make it the greatest potential
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/04/12 : CIA-RDP85T01058R000303650001-9
 7FYI
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/04/12 : CIA-RDP85TO1058R000303650001-9
? I I
threat to inspire or direct an attack against the inauguration.
The 30,000-50,000 Iranian students currently residing in the
United States form a pool from which Tehran can recruit potential
terrorists, eliminating the need to introduce agents into this
country. Rut Iran typically has chosen to attack the United
States abroad, and the FBI reports that their investigations into
alleged Iranian threats within the United States show that none
can currently be corroborated or substantiated. Iranian
activities in the United States have been limited primarily to
arms procurement and intelligence collection on opponents of the
Khomeini regime, and infighting between pro- and anti-Khomeini
groups appears to have hampered plans by Iran to increase its
subversive activities. Still, Iranian-inspired Shias may act
independently of Tehran, and even against Tehran's wishes.
Libya appears, at present, to represent a less serious
threat, but the large number of Libyan students residing in the
United States in theory could function as a terrorist
infrastructure. To date, Libyan operations in this country have
been targeted at dissident Libyan exiles and not Americans.
Although Qadhafi has repeatedly denounced the United States in
harsh and provocative terms, none of the 25 Libyan-backed
terrorist acts around the world this year were directed against
the United States. The most recent Libyan activities indicate
that Oadhafi probably will continue to target Libyan dissidents
in the United States, rather than Americans. It is important to
remember, however, that although Qadhafi apparently has been
deterred in the past from striking at the United States out of
fear of reprisal, he has been brazen in his willingness to target
Although Cuba supports terrorists and insurgents throughout
Latin America and probably still provides Puerto Rican
separatists with some funding and guidance, Castro appears wary
of initiating anti-American terrorism in which his hand could be
detected, particularly within the continental United States. So
far this year, Puerto Rican terrorists have limited their
activities to the island, possibly in keeping with Castro's
concern that the Reagan administration remains willing to take
direct action in the Caribbean as demonstrated in Grenada. We
see no reason why the Cubans would change their posture. We
cannot rule out the possibli.ty, however, that Puerto Rican groups
might initiate action on their own--although as of this writing,
the FBI has no intellicienee information to suggest that they are
Separatist/Irredentist Groups
Separatist or irredentist groups, many of which have large
support networks in the United States, also present reason for
some concern. As was underscored at the Olympics, however, most
such groups are unwilling to alienate their large, ethnic
support-bases by engaging in terrorist acts. Moreover, none of
those groups views the United States as a target; instead, they
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/04/12 : CIA-RDP85TO1058R000303650001-9
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/04/12 : CIA-RDP85T01058R000303650001-9
focus their efforts on their traditional foreign foes, be they
Turks, Israelis, Yugoslavs, or others. The greatest potential
threat to the inauguration emanating from separatist groups comes
from the two major Armenian terrorist groups--the leftwing
Armenian Secret Army for the Liberation of Armenia and the
rightwing Justice Commandos of the Armenian Genocide. Although
neither group directly targets Americans, their determination to
kill Turkish officials could prove dangerous not only for
official Turkish representatives but also to any non-Turkish
bystanders who might be in the line of fire. Both groups have
been inactive in the United States since the assassination of two
Turkish Consuls General in 1982. ideological infighting,
reorganization, and the arrest and prosecution of their members
may have reduced their capabilities to stage an attack during the
inauguration.
Attacks from other separatist/irredentist organizations that
sometimes operate in the United States seem even less likely.
Like the Armenians, the Croatians in the United States have been
quiet since 1982 and appear to be in disarray after the arrests
of several key members. Because Croatian terrorists target
Yugoslav personnel and interests and have not engaged directly in
anti-American violence, the probability of their staging an
incident during the inauguration is low. While most Palestinian
groups in the United States still appear to be maintaining
Arafat's 1974 ban on terrorism outside Israel and the occupied
territories, the Palestine Liberation organization's internal
feuding could threaten continued adherence to the ban. In 1983,
for example, the FBI thwarted a scheme by some Palestine
Liberation organization members to assault a member of an
opposing PLO faction. Nevertheless, the PLO derives some support
from the Arab-American community and would he reluctant to
undertake actions here that might jeopardize that support.
Maverick Palestinian groups outside the PLO, such as the Abu
Nidal group, have attacked US targets overseas in 1984, but there
is no indication that they have the capability to launch attacks
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/04/12 : CIA-RDP85T01058R000303650001-9