SENIOR REVIEW PANEL REVIEW OF ESTIMATES

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP88B00443R001604220027-1
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 8
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: February 26, 2010
• Sequence Number: 27
• Publication Date: September 17, 1984
• Content Type: MEMO

Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/02/26 :CIA-RDP88B00443R001604220027-1
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Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/02/26 :CIA-RDP88B00443R001604220027-1
17 September 1984
N07E FOR: Chuck Briggs
FROM: DCI
I)p~tECTf;Si OF CENTRAL I~GENCE
I think each Member of the two
Intelligence Committees should get this
information.
You determine whether it should be
mailed or how it should be handled so
that it will get to each of them
individually as they wind up this session.
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/02/26 :CIA-RDP88B00443R001604220027-1
' ~ SECRET NOFORN
The Director of Central Intelligence
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MEMORANDUM FOR: The President
17 September-1984
SUBJECT: Senior Review Panel Review of Estimates
The Intelli ence C or Review Panel com os
Ambassador retired Gener
former Assistant Secretary of State for Economic Affairs
and a distinguished scientist.
I'd like to share with you its recently completed evaluation of 46
intelligence estimates produced during the first six months of 1982 and those
of 1983. They found that 1982-83 estimative production was of extremely
high quality in forecast validity and policymaker utility.
They further stated that 1982 and 1983 production would--in their
experience--have met most policymaker needs in timeliness, policy issue
relevance, analytical quality, readability, and estimative dgment.
Overall, as policymaking support, the Panel said it would regard two-thirds
to three-quarters of the papers as "superior to outstanding," with the
percentage rising as one moves from 1982 to 1983.
They cited one failed estimate, one produced in June of 1982 which
predicted Iran's victory over Iraq.
During the years 1981-84, we will have completed 274 National Intelligence
Estimates compared with ,~24 during the years 1971-80. I attach a tabulation
indicating the areas'in which the increases have been most marked--Soviet
political and military, Latin America, Middle East, East Asia, nuclear
proliferation, global resources, narcotics, and B/C warfare.
In case you want to glance through subjects addressed in estimates over
this period, I also attach a list of National Estimate titles.
Attachments
SECRET NOfORN
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/02/26 :CIA-RDP88B00443R001604220027-1
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 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/02/26 :CIA-RDP88B00443R001604220027-1
? SECRET NOFORN
The Director of Central Intelligence
Washington, D. C 20505
17 September 1984
MEMORANDUM FOR: The Vice President
SUBJECT: Senior Review Panel Review of Estimates
The Intelligence Community has a Senior Review Panel comaosed of fo
I'd like to share with you its recently completed evaluation of 46
intelligence estimates produced during the first six months of 1982 and those
of 1983. They found that 1982-83 estimative production was of extremely
high quality in forecast validity and policymaker utility.
They further stated that 1982 and 1983 production would--in their
experience--have met most policymaker needs in timeliness, policy issue
relevance, analytical quality, readability, and estimative j dgment.
Overall, as policymaking support, the Panel said it would re~`ard two-thirds
to three-quarters of the papers as "superior to outstanding," with the
percentage rising as one moves from 1982 to 1983.
They cited one failed estimate, one produced in June of 1982 which
predicted Iran's victory over Iraq.
During the years 1981-84, we will have completed 274 National Intelligence
Estimates compared with 124 during the ye,,~ 1977-80. I attach a tabulation
indicating the areas in which the increases have been most marked--Soviet
political and military, Latin America, Middle East, East Asia, nuclear
proliferation, global resources, narcotics, and B/C warfare.
In case you want to glance through subjects addressed in estimates over
this period, I also attach a list of National Est mite titles.
Ambassador retired Gener
former Ass s an ecretary o tate for Economic Affairs
and a distinguished scientist.
Attachments
SECRET NOFORN
Casey
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/02/26 :CIA-RDP88B00443R001604220027-1
25X1
25X1
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/02/26 :CIA-RDP88B00443R001604220027-1
? SECRET NOFORN ?
The Director of Central Intelligence
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