IL-76 CANDID: STATUS AND OUTLOOK FOR THE SOVIETS MAJOR TRANSPORT AIRCRAFT PROGRAM

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP90T01298R000300250001-4
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 26
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: November 9, 2009
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: December 1, 1985
• Content Type: REPORT

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Tnn Qarraf
Intelligence
IL-76 Candid: Status and
Outlook for the Soviets'
Major Transport Aircraft
Program
A Research Paper
NOT f lICRO LMED
0 o #o, Copee . - -----
F@r Data Entry ?niy
NGA Review Completed
Top Secret
IA 85-10062JX
December 1985
COPY 43
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Program
IL-76 Candid: Status and
Outlook for the Soviets'
Major Transport Aircraft
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Office of Soviet Analysis, and
lice of Scientific and Weapons Re-
search, contributed to this report.
Comments and queries are welcome and may be
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IA 85-10062JX
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Major Transport Aircraft Program
IL-76 Candid: Status and Outlook for the Soviets'
Summary The Soviet IL-76 transport aircraft-codenamed Candid by NATO-
Inforuintion available forms the backbone of the Soviets' military air transport assets and
as q/-/ December 1985 will continue to do so into the next century. It is similar in mission
inns used in this
report. and design to the US C-141 but can carry a greater payload, althou h
to a lesser n
25X1
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states throughout the world.
The IL-76s assigned to the military are replacing the older and less ca-
pable AN-12 aircraft in Soviet Military Transportation Aviation, the
Soviet equivalent of the US Military Airlift Command. By 1992, we
project that all military AN-12s will have been replaced by IL-76s,
providing Soviet Military Transport Aviation with a fleet of some 440
of these aircraft. (By comparison, some 285 C-141 s were produced for
the US military.) The primary mission of the aircraft is to provide the
airlift for Soviet airborne forces. Compared to the capabilities of an
AN-12, an IL-76 can carry a greater variety of equipment, can carry
over twice the weight, and can carry that weight twice as far at a third
higher speed. These capabilities enable the Soviet airborne forces and
their equipment to be delivered and resupplied, without refueling, to
almost all of Europe, North Africa, and the Middle East. The IL-76
also increases the Soviets' ability to conduct massive airlifts to client
AWACS variant and an in-flight refueling tanker vari-
ant of the IL-76 began
cause of the growing Soviet need for these special-pur-
pose aircra t, we estimate they will produce at least another 25
AWACS and 70 to 80 more tankers. The AWACS variant provides the
Soviets with a sophisticated radar capable of tracking low-flying tar-
gets and directing Soviet fighters to intercept them. The AWACS is
the only IL-76 with an in-flight refueling capability and will probably
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ers as well.
be refueled by IL-76 tankers. IL-76 tankers will probably be produced
in sufficient numbers to support strategic bombers and tactical fight-
to be 60 aircraft per year, and our analysis
Based on our estimate of the Soviets' requirements for IL-76 aircraft,
we believe they will probably produce 280 to 330 more aircraft, mak-
ing a total production run of 750 to 800. The Soviet military will con-
tinue to receive most of these aircraft. We estimate current production
indicates that this figure is at or very near the peak of pro-
continue to be produced.
uction. We expect this peak rate to be maintained for only a year or
two longer before production begins to taper off. The decline will
probably he caused by diminishing requirements for standard IL-76s,
increasing production of the more complex AWACS and tanker vari-
ants, and the beginning of major component production for the new
heavy transport aircraft, the AN- 124. We estimate that about three to
five AWACS and about six to eight tankers will be produced each year
until Soviet requirements for these variants are satisfied. We expect
that civil and export models, as well as additional variants, will also
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Contents
Summary
IL-76 Performance and Capability
Military Aircraft
Civil (Aeroflot) Aircraft
Export Aircraft
Electronic Support
B. Special-Purpose IL-76s
Page
5 25X1
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Scope Note This paper presents a comprehensive discussion of the Soviet IL-76
Candid transport aircraft program. It describes the capabilities of this
aircraft, discusses its primary role as a military transport, and address-
es the more recent development of AWACS and in-flight refueling
25X1 variants
projections are made of IL-76 requirements
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IL-76 Candid: Status and Outlook
for the Soviets' Major Transport
Aircraft Program fl
As the Soviets rebuilt and expanded their econo-
my and military forces in the decades following
World War II, the need arose for larger and more
capable transport aircraft. Transports were needed
that would be large enough to carry construction
equipment and supplies to growing communities
and resource exploration sites in the Soviet Far
East and Siberia, and to move Soviet airborne
troops and their equipment to potential conflict
sites beyond the homeland borders. The inspira-
tion for an aircraft to fulfill this role came during
the early 1960s with the development of the US
Lockheed C-141 Starlifter. This new US aircraft
stimulated Soviet interest in a new transport, and
and general appearance to the C- 141 and incorpo-
rated many of its design features. Some features,
however, were altered to conform to Soviet pro-
duction capabilities or to better satisfy Soviet user
requirements. Five prototype aircraft, designated
IL-76 by the Soviets and Candid by NATO, were
built between 1969 and late 1972. The first of
these had its initial flight in late 1970 and was
The Soviets have invested heavily in
resources that appear de ica ted to a
aircraft has performed satisfactorily and will prob-
ably fulfill most of the Soviets' military transport
requirements and many civil requirements into
the 21st century. Two variants of the IL-76, an
AWACS and an in-flight refueling tanker, have
only recently entered series production; it is un-
likely that the military requirements for these air-
craft will be satisfied until the early 1990s. F_
long production run of the IL-76. Apparently the
IL-76 Performance and Capability
requirements for the IL-76 specified that the air-
craft be capable of transporting a 40-ton payload
over 5,000 kilometers in not more than six and a
half hours. These requirements established the ba-
sic structural and fuel weights of the IL-76 and, in
fact, were among the advertised performance char-
acteristics given by the Soviets during the initial
display of the aircraft at Paris in 1971. At that
time the new director of the Ilyushin OKB, Gen-
rikh Novozhilov, announced that the IL-76 was a 25X1
military transport with a secondary role as a civil
bulk cargo carrier.
IL-76s are produced for both military and civil
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The military IL-76 has a tail-gun 25X1
turret
Other di erences between military and civil air-
craft, however, are probably minimal. All IL-76s,
with the probable exception of AWACS variants,
are equipped with an integral loading ramp and
can load and unload cargo without much airfield
support equipment. This capability and the under-
carriage, designed for rough field use, enable both
the military and civil IL-76 to use many of the un-
improved airstrips found in remote areas of the
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of personnel or paratroops.
have reinforced cargo floors for heavy equipment
and pressurized cargo compartments for transport
compares them with those of the C-141
In appearance and size the IL-76 is much like its
US counterpart, the C-141 (figure 1). While the
Ilyushin Design Bureau obviously borrowed heavi-
ly from the Lockheed C-141, they did not simply
copy it. The IL-76 fuselage diameter is greater
than that of the C-141 to accommodate wider
equipment; its landing gear is heavier for rough
field use; and it can carry a larger payload, al-
though to a lesser range. Table 2 lists the known
characteristics and capacities of the IL-76 and
190,000 kilograms
Candids initially were designated IL-76 and had a
maximum takeoff weight of 157,000 kilograms.
Later Candids-IL-76T and IL-76M-have maxi-
mum takeoff weights of 170,000 kilograms, with
the weight increase due to a larger fuel capacity.
The early IL-76s are now being retrofitted to have
the 170,000-kilogram gross weight and increased
fuel load. Within the last few years, two additional
types of Candids have entered production-the
IL-76TD and IL-76MD. These newer variants re-
portedly have an additional increase in fuel capac-
ity and a heavier maximum takeoff weight of
East.
The range and payload capabilities of the IL-76 25X1
are greatly superior to most Soviet cargo transport
aircraft. Only the old AN-22 (Cock) and the newly
designed AN- 124 (Condor), not yet in production,
can lift more cargo and carry it farther. There are
more than six times as many IL-76s as there are
AN-22s available for airlift operations. The IL-76
force is thus the primary vehicle for air transport
and enables the Soviet airborne forces and their
equipment to be delivered and resupplied to al-
most all of Europe, North Africa, and the Middle
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Figure 1
Soviet IL-76 and US C-141 Transports
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Table 2
Aircraft Characteristics and Capacities
IL-76T and
IL-76M C-141B
IL-76T and
IL-76M C-141B
Length (exclu-
ding ramp)
19.7
27.7
Wing span
50.5
48.8
Wing area
(square meters)
329
300
Wing sweep
(degrees)
27
27
Ramp Slope
(degrees)
10
15
Manufacturer
Soloviyev
Pratt and
Whitney
Maximum takeoff
(kilograms)
I70,000d
I55,600b
D-30KP
(four)
TF 33-P-7
(four)
No payload
(kilograms)
IL-76T:
82,000d
IL-76M:
86,000d
65,500
Thrust rating
(kilograms)
12,000
9,530
Maximum payload
(kilograms)
40,0004
42,900b
Specific fuel
consumption at
takeoff (kilogram/
kilogram/hour)
.50-.55
.56
Maximum fuel
(kilograms)
84,500d
69,600
Cruise speed
(kilometers/hour)
750-800
750-785
Crew
5 to 7
4 (plus 4
alternate)
Cruise altitude
(kilometers)
10-13
10-12.5
Range with
maximum payload
(kilometers)
IL-76T
4,400
IL-76M
4,000a
4,600b
Note: Undefined measurements are in meters.
'The IL-76TD and MD variants have roughly a 1,700-kilo-
meter greater range.
bThis number is fora G4oad factor of 2.25. At a 2.5 G-load
factor the range would change to 5,100 kilometers and the take-
off distance to 1,800 meters. Takeoff weight would decrease
to 146,600 kilograms and payload to 33,700 kilograms.
`Calculated at sea level, with maximum weight, to clear a
15-meter height at end of runway.
dThe IL-76TD and MD variants have a maximum takeoff
weight of 190,000 kilograms. Maximum fuel weight is esti-
mated to be 90,500 kilograms and maximum payload at
least 50,000 kilograms. Maximum landing weight may also
have increased. The operating weight when empty is proba-
bly somewhat greater than that of the IL-76 and IL-76M.
'Capacity is 225 people if the plane has a double-deck con-
figuration.
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Soviet and US Production:
Major Differences in Philosophy
The IL-76 production rates, while fairly representa-
tive of Soviet aircraft production, are dissimilar to
the rates.found in a profit-oriented market such as
the US industry. Contrasting the IL- 76 and its US
lookalike, the C-141, reveals some of the major dif-
ferences in production philosophy.-
IL- 76
? 470 built between 1974 and late 1985; average 39
per year.
? Overall number likely to increase by 65 percent as
production continues into the 1990s.
C- 141
? 285 built between 1963 and 1965; average 95 per
year.
? 270 of the original C-14/s were modified between
1979 and 1982 to extend their role life.
The number of IL- 76s built by the Soviets in the
first nine years of production is similar to the num-
ber of C-141s built by the US in three years. The US
manufacturers, responding to USAir Force pro-
curement allowances for these three years, began a
high-volume, mass production program. In con-
trast, the Soviets-working with long-term central
planning cycles, quota systems, parts supply diff-
culties, and antiquated manufacturing machin-
ery-have opted for a long and steady production
run.
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The increasing output of IL-76s over the past de-
cade can be represented graphically by means of a
"learning curve." In a mass production program
for complex items such as an aircraft, administra-
tive, delivery, and assembly procedures should be-
come more efficient over time, reducing the effort
and cost of later units. This movement toward in-
creased efficiency can be plotted and used to de-
scribe and predict production output at various
points during a production program. The increase
in output of IL-76s since 1974 shows such a trend
towards increased efficiency and correlates with a
76-percent learning curve (that is, only 76 percent
of the time is needed to produce the 200th plane as
was needed to produce the 100th plane).
Figure 2
IL-76 Production, 1973.85
Number of Aircraft
601
(he increase in output since
that time is adequately explained as a function of
the learning curve. A later section of this paper
will return to these factors and the potential they
have in helping predict future IL-76 output.
Number of Aircraft
500
f
0l / 1 ' r r 1 r r r 1 r 1
1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985
oU
1973
I . 1 r r
11977 1 1979 1981 1983 1985
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Deployment
During the first two and a half years of produc-
tion, all IL-76s (about 35 aircraft) were delivered
to the Soviet military. Since then, allocations of
newly produced IL-76s have gone to other custom-
ers as well as the military, and the allocation ratios
have remained fairly constant throughout the pro-
duction run. About 70 percent have gone to the
military, 11 percent to Soviet civil aviation (Aero-
flot), 12 percent have been exported, and 7 percent
have been modified for special roles. Of those IL-
76s modified for special roles, two variants-an
AWACS and a refueling tanker-have recently
been developed into production models, but only a
25X1 few have been produced so far
al.
The IL-
76 has been a reliable aircraft, and at least ninety-
eight percent of those produced are still operation-
Military Aircraft
The primary customer for IL-76s has been Soviet
Military Transport Aviation (Voyenno-Transport-
naya Aviatsiya-VTA), the Soviet equivalent of
the US Military Airlift Command (MAC). By late
1985, we estimate 330 military IL-76s had been
produced
The Impact of IL-76s on Soviet
Airborne Forces
The IL- 76 brings capabilities to Soviet military
transport service that are significantly greater than
those of the AN-12. An individual IL-76 holds,
roughly, twice as much cargo as theAN-12 and can
carry it twice as far at a third higher speed. For the
VTA, the principal user, the IL- 76 offers many im-
provements over the AN- 12. A regiment ofIL-76s
can carry about 560, 000 kilograms (50 percent of
its maximum payload) up to a distance of 6,500 ki-
lometers in a single airlift. (The IL- 76 TD and MD
variants can travel over 7,500 kilometers with the
same weight.) An AN-12 regiment is able to move
only about 350,000 kilograms (50 percent of its
maximum load) a distance of 3,300 kilometers. In
an airborne role, compared to the AN-12, the IL-76
can:
? Carry three rather than two BMD armored per-
sonnel carriers.
? Carry 125 rather than 60 paratroopers.
? Carry its passengers in a pressurized cabin,
rather than requiring individual oxygen sup-
plies because of unpressurized cabins.
Concurrent with the upgrading of the VTA with IL-
76s, there has been a modernization of the Soviet
airborne forces. They are being equipped with larg-
er numbers of new, air-transportable weapons and
vehicles, which require the greater lift capability of
the IL-76 regiments.
76 regiment, however, is roughly double that of an
AN-12 regiment. f
The replacement of AN-12s with IL-76s has not
been on a one-for-one basis. An AN- 12 regiment,
comprising 33 to 36 aircraft, is being replaced by a
regiment of 28 IL-76s.4 The lift capability of an IL-
The principal mission of the VTA (and thus of the
IL-76) is to provide airlift support to the Soviet
Airborne Forces. Additional missions include
transport of nuclear weapons, logistic support for
Soviet military forces, transport abroad of eco-
nomic and military assistance cargoes, and occa-
sional airlift assistance for Soviet civilian indus-
tries. IL-76s have participated in all major Soviet
airlift exercises and operations since 1979. Of par-
ticular importance was the December 1979 airlift
of Soviet airborne and ground forces into Afghani-
stan. About 70 IL-76s participated in this three-
day operation.
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 Export Aircraft
Since 1978 the Soviets have exported 56 IL-76s.
Exports include both the military and civil ver-
sions. As of late 1985, five countries had received
IL-76s:
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aOne aircraft is registered for Iraqi government use.
IL-76 sales to all of these countries are continu-
inu
Civil (Aeroflot) Aircraft
About 52 IL-76s have been delivered to Soviet civ-
il aviation (Aeroflot) since 1976. Aeroflot's share
of IL-76 production has averaged about five air-
craft per year.
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hose.'
transfer 40 metric tons of fuel and then return to
base. We estimate the fuel transfer rate for this sys-
tem to be at least 1,500 kilograms per minute per
IL-76 tankers may be produced each year.
IL-76 tankers will not be as difficult or time con-
suming to produce as the AWACS. Some extra
steps will be required to install the pods and inter-
nal plumbing. These operations, however, should
not be too difficult to implement on the existing
assembly line; by 1987 we believe that six to eight
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By adding a fleet of IL-76 tankers, the Soviets will
greatly enhance their ability to conduct missions
of long distance or long duration. Two fighter-size
aircraft can refuel simultaneously from the under-
wing pods. Larger aircraft will likely be refueled
singly from the aft fuselage station. The IL-76
tanker appears to use the basic military version
and, because of the advantages of higher gross
weight and fuel load, will probably be produced
with an IL-76MD airframe. Based upon this as-
sumption, we believe the IL-76 tanker will proba-
bly have over 100 metric tons of fuel at takeoff.
After flying a distance of 2,800 kilometers, it could
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The Soviet civil version of the IL-76 undergoes de-
pot-level repair at the Moscow-Bykovo Repair
Base, a major Aeroflot repair facility.
With their growing fleet of IL-76s, the Soviets re-
quire dedicated repair facilities to keep these air-
craft in service. Inspections, maintenance, repairs,
and replacement of parts and systems are handled
through regimented and predetermined schedules.
A part is inspected and serviced at regular inter-
vals, but once it has reached its safety service life-
time, it is replaced automatically (usually at a time
far before it would be replaced in the US system).
Aging aircraft also will require structural repairs or
major maintenance that cannot be performed at
the deployment bases. Thus, depot-level repair
and overhaul facilities are needed for the IL-76.F-
Most work at Moscow-Bykovo is
done on intact airframes, and much of it is done in
the open. This, we believe, is typical of depot-level
repair functionsF _J 25X1
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In order to fulfill estimated user requirements, the
Soviets will have to keep the IL-76 in production
until the early 1990s. By late 1985 some 470 IL-76
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aircraft had been produced. We project that at
least another 300 will need to be produced to meet
Soviet requirements (table 4). The VTA will con-
tinue to receive the largest share of production.
percent of IL-76 production allotted to Aeroflot
and for export will probably continue at about the
same rate as in recent years, or slightly lower. The
requirements for these customers, however, are
less defined. Once the military requirements for
IL-76s are more nearly satisfied, the Soviets may
try to expand their export market and perhaps add
more aircraft to their civil fleet. If so, the produc-
tion run could extend beyond our projections.
Based upon our perception of Soviet requirements
and their ability to series-produce special-purpose
aircraft, we believe that the Soviets may field at
least 30 AWACS and 75 to 85 tankers. We also be-
lieve the Soviets will continue to modify some
newly produced IL-76s for special roles. In the late
1980s IL-76 output will probably begin to decline
as VTA requirements are fulfilled and as produc-
tion of the more complex IL-76s-AWACS, tank-
25X1 ers, and electronic support aircraft-increases.F-
Throughout the first dozen years, increases in IL-
76 production could reliably be correlated to nor-
mal progression along a 76-percent production
learning curve
aircraft per year.
Dwindling
Soviet requirements for the standard IL-76 and
production of the more complex variants will
probably cause the learning curve projection to
correspondingly level off. Peak production, there-
fore, for the IL-76 is probably occurring now, with
the rate unlikely to be much greater than about 60
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