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The Director of Central Intelligence
Washington, D.C. 20505
National Intelligence Council
NIC NO. 04980-84
29 August 1984
MEMORANDUM FOR: Director of Central Intelligence
Deputy Director of Central Intelligence
FROM: George Kolt
National Intelligence Officer for Europe
SUBJECT: Follow-on to the 28 August NSC Meeting on Poland
1. After the meeting I spoke with Paula Dobriansky, the NSC
staffer on Poland. She expects that in a week or so State will send
her its evaluation of how complete and reasonable the amnesty has
been. She then plans to circulate it to the Agencies for comment
before having it forwarded to Mr. McFarlane and the President for a
final decision.
2. Paula also expressed hope that other Agencies, primarily State,
would pick up Mr. McFarlane's suggestion at the meeting to devise a
more comprehensive approach to Poland than just a step-by-step removal
of sanctions. I told her that our thoughts ran along similar lines and
suggested that this might be a good discussion item between you and Mr.
McFarlane. I recommend that you put it on the agenda for your next
meeting with Mr. McFarlane. To that end I have slightly revised the
paper I gave you on Monday the 27th dealing with "possible elements of
a more comprehensive US approach towards Poland." You may also want to
discuss it with Secretary Shultz.
Attachment:
Talking Points
eorge Kolt
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MEMORANDUM FOR: DCI
DDCI
FROM: NIO/EUR
NIC No. 04980-84
29 August 1984
SUBJECT: Follow-on to the 28 August NSC Meeting on Poland
Distribution:
1 - DC I
1 - DDCI
1 - SA/IA
1 - ER
1 - C/NIC
1 - VC/NIC
1 - NIO/E
1 - D/EURA
1 - DC/EURA/EE
1 - NIO/EUR (chrono)
1 - NIO/EUR (sub)
NIO/EUR/GKOLT
(29AUG84)
SECRETI
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Proposed DCI Talking Points
Possible Elements of a More Comprehensive
US Approach toward Poland
You mentioned at the NSC meeting that the USG should think
beyond the IMF issue and devise a strategy which takes us
further. I agree with you.
While we observe whether Jaruzelski frees all political
prisoners and how he implements the amnesty we should devise a
more comprehensive package.
Our interrelated objectives should be to push Poland toward
greater pluralism, economic efficiency, and financial recovery.
The political elements of a more comprehensive package could
include some Polish political reforms such as:
- The permission to create new trade unions apart from
either Solidarity or the government trade unions.
Parliamentary elections with broadened non-party
participation.
Recreation of autonomous cultural organs like the
Writers' and Journalists' unions.
Its economic elements could include:
Widened scope for the Polonia enterprises (small private
enterprises in Poland owned and financed by Western
businessmen usually of Polish descent) and encouragement
of Western involvement with them.
The introduction of workers' participation in the
management of enterprises, along the lines being worked
out before the imposition of martial law.
If the Church fund for agriculture works out, increased
Western private and governmental support for it as well
as discussions about its expansion to cover small private
service enterprises.
Its financial elements could include:
- The development of a financial repayment package among
Western official and private creditors (with rescheduling
and the recycling of some repayment along the lines of
the Yugoslavia package.)
Again granting Poland MFN status.
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The Director of Central Intelligence
Washington, D.C. 20505
National Intelligence Council
Poland and the IMF
NIC No. 04924-84
27 August 1984
AN.E2S 70-S"I
MEMORANDUM FOR: Director of Central Intelligence
Deputy Director of Central Intelligence
FROM: George Kolt
National Intelligence Officer for Europe
SUBJECT: Update Talking Points for 28 August NSC Meeting on
1. We have now received the promised issues papers for the NSC meeting
and they turn out to be not a joint but separate State and Treasury papers
(Tab B).
2. As expected, the underlying assumption in the State paper is that
US approval of the resumption of IMF negotiations over Polish membership is
just a matter of time. Thus the last paragraph states that "once we have
determined that the amnesty decision has been completely and reasonably
implemented . . . ", we should inform our Allies, Poland, and the public
that the IMF negotiations may start. A draft press statement to that
effect is attached. Unfortunately for State, events in Poland over the
weekend have not gone in a positive direction. As of Friday it seemed that
only two prisoners (Lis and Mierzejewski) might face charges that would
exempt them from the amnesty. Now the Polish government has anounced that
630 prisoners have been freed but that 22 were still being held on charges
not affected by the amnesty. State also downplays the warnings that have
already been issued to some recently released prisoners and the possibility
of rearrests. State's paper therefore is too optimistic.
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3. Treasury's paper concentrates on the financial situation and
reveals considerable concern over the reactivation of Poland's
application. It evinces doubt that Poland would provide the required
data or implement fully IMF membership obligations; shows unease about
increasing East European participation in the IMF; and notes the
Congressionally-required Treasury certification that IMF membership
would provide, inter alia, a basis for correcting a new member's balance
of payments problems and for advancing market-oriented forces. Treasury
wryly comments that "implementation of this legislataive requirement for
Poland could pose serious problems."
4. Except for an update on the prisoner situation (as shown in the
Attachment and already inserted in your book) your talking points do not
seem to require modification. The talking points on the political
situation are more comprehensive and balanced than State's analysis.
Those on the financial situation overlap slightly with Treasury's on
Poland's position vis-a-vis IMF and on the likely course of the
application process but provide much more detailed financial data on
Poland's current situation and on possible implications of IMF
membership.
George Kolt
Attachment
a/s
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Update to DCI Talking Points
for
28 August NSC Meeting on Poland and IMF
On Page 2, change the second and third bullets (starting with "according
to . . . " and ending with ". . . . . about them") to read:
According to Polish government figures the number-of political
prisoners in July 1984 stood at 652. Over the weekend the
government announced that it has freed 630 but that 22 were
still being held on charges not affected by the amnesty.
Cardinal Glemp has also stated publicly that 630 have been
freed. But, so far, we have no church or other independent
assessment of the exact numbers remaining in jail.
The number 22 presumably includes the pPominent Solidarity
leader Lis and an associate (Mierzejewski) who were arrested
some three months ago and may be charged with treason -- a
charge that would exempt them from the amnesty. According to
the government, the charges against the rest of the 22 are
criminal in nature and are therefore not covered by the
amnesty. But, according to our Embassy, the government is
still talking to the church at least about Lis and his
associate.
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Rer. rks
EXECUTIVE SECRETARIAT
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t- - 4'YSTEM II
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Executive Registry
7052
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Secretary
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to the Un#ed States
United N4Itions
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Executive Secretariat
JOULWAN
: e Chairman
=:4F Membershtip, August 28 IS)
be held on Tuesday,
)inet Roomy to review our
-it of Poland's recent
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Executi e
SSeecrr ttory
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NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL
WASHINGTON. D.C. 2050
August 21, 1984
4'YSTEM II
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E,,cc!uti';c Registry
7052
MEMORANDUM- FOR MR. DONALD GREGG
Assistant to the Vice President
for National Security Affairs
COLONEL R. J. AFFOURTIT
Executive Secretary
Department of Defense
DR: ALTON KEEL
Associate Director for National
-- = Security Affairs---
-MR----THOMAS B. CORMACK
MRS. HELEN ROBBINS
Executive Secretary
--Central Intelligence Agency
THE HONORABLE HARVEY FELDMAN
Washington Representative to the Una+ted States
Representative to the United N+'tions
_Db~iArtment of State
MR. DENNIS WHITFIELD
Office of the U.S. Trade Representaliive
Winder Building
----- MS ~ -TERE SA COLL-NS ' - - -
Chief, Secretariat Staff, Executive Secretariat
U.S. Information- Agency
BRIGADIER GENERAL GEORGE JOULWAN
-----Executive Assistant to the. Chairman
Joint Chiefs of Staff
NSC'Meeting on Poland's IMF Membersi$iip, August 28 IS)
A National--Security council meeting will be held oln Tuesday,
Auugust 28, 1984, at 11:00 a.m. in the Cabinet Room, to review our
.~~ pqsitLOn on Polish IMF membership in light of Poland's recent
i_vited (S) +
Robert M. Kimmitt
Executive Secretary
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Executive Assistant to the Secretary
z~.-- Department of Commerce
Office of Management and Budget
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SUBJECT: (Optional)
Follow-on to the 28 August NSC Meeting on Poland
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NIO for Europe
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