Approved For Release 2011/05/10: CIA-RDP97-0077OR000100410001-7
Directorate of
Economic & Energy
Indicators
DI EEI 86-015
18 July 1986
Approved For Release 2011/05/10: CIA-RDP97-0077OR000100410001-7
J_
Approved For Release 2011/05/10: CIA-RDP97-0077OR000100410001-7
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Approved For Release 2011/05/10: CIA-RDP97-0077OR000100410001-7
Approved For Release 2011/05/10: CIA-RDP97-0077OR000100410001-7
Economic & Energy
Indicators
Industrial Production
Gross National Product
Consumer Prices
Money Supply
Unemployment Rate
Foreign Trade
Current Account Balance
Export Prices in US $
Import Prices in US $
Exchange Rate Trends
Money Market Rates
Agricultural Prices
Industrial Materials Prices
World Crude Oil Production, Excluding Natural Gas Liquids 8
Big Seven: Inland Oil Consumption 9
Big Seven: Crude Oil Imports 9
Crude Oil Prices 10
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Percent change from previous period
seasonally adjusted at an annual rate
Percent change from previous period
seasonally adjusted at an annual rate
Percent change from previous period
seasonally adjusted at an annual rate
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Money Supply, M-1 a
Percent change from previous period
seasonally adjusted at an annual rate
a Based on amounts in national currency units.
b Including MI-A and M1-B.
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United States b
Exports
233.5
212.3
200.7
217.6
213.3
52.4
Imports
261.0
244.0
258.0
325.7
345.3
89.2
92.9
32.0
28.8
30.3
Balance
-27.5
-31.6
-57.4
-108.1
-132.0
-36.8
Japan
Exports
149.6
138.2
145.4
168.1
173.9
47.2
48.1
15.8
16.7
17.6
Imports
129.5
119.6
114.0
124.1
118.0
30.3
30.2
9.4
9.7
9.1
Balance
20.1
18.6
31.4
44.0
55.9
16.8
17.9
6.4
7.0
8.5
West Germany
Exports
175.4
176.4
169.5
171.9
184.3
51.3
55.0
17.4
21.8
17.6
Imports c
163.4
155.3
152.9
153.1
158.9
43.8
45.0
14.2
17.2
14.4
Balance
11.9
21.1
16.6
18.8
25.3
7.5
10.1
3.2
4.6
3.2
France
Exports
106.3
96.4
95.1
97.5
101.9
28.8
30.4
9.9
9.9
9.7
Imports
115.6
110.5
101.0
100.3
104.5
29.2
30.3
10.2
10.6
10.0
Balance
-9.3
-14.0
-5.9
-2.8
-2.6
-0.4
0.1
-0.4
-0.7
-0.3
United Kingdom
Exports
102.5
97.1
92.1
93.6
100.9
27.3
26.2
8.4
9.1
8.9
Imports
94.6
93.1
93.7
99.3
103.5
27.6
28.3
10.2
9.5
9.9
Balance
7.9
4.0
-1.6
-5.7
-2.5
-0.3
-2.0
-1.8
-0.4
-1.0
Italy
Exports
75.4
73.9
72.8
73.5
78.8
22.5
23.4
7.7
8.2
8.1
Imports
91.2
86.7
80.6
84.4
90.8
26.1
26.5
8.5
8.2
7.9
Balance
-15.9
-12.8
-7.9
-10.9
-11.9
-3.6
-3.1
-0.8
0
0.2
Canada
Exports
70.5
68.5
73.7
86.5
88.0
22.5
21.6
6.7
7.4
7.0
Imports
64.4
54.1
59.3
70.6
75.7
19.6
19.8
5.8
6.6
6.4
Balance
6.1
14.4
14.4
15.9
12.3
2.9
1.8
1.0
0.8
0.6
a Seasonally adjusted.
b Imports are customs values.
Imports are c.i.f.
a Seasonally adjusted; converted to US dollars at current market
rates of exchange.
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Percent change from previous period
at an annual rate
Japan
5.5
-6.4
-2.4
0.2
-0.6
111.0
-5.7
48.1
West Germany
-14.9
-2.8
-3.2
-7.1
0
60.5
32.7
0.1
20.3
France
-12.0
-5.5
-4.8
-2.9
2.5
34.7
28.0
United Kingdom
NA
NA
-6.2
-5.1
2.3
-16.0
26.4
6.0
9.1
Italy
-7.8
-3.0
-4.4
-5.2
-0.3
Percent change from previous period
at an annual rate
United States
5.3
-2.0
-3.7
1.7
-2.4
-9.2
-29.6
-6.8
-2.4
Japan
3.6
-7.4
-5.0
-2.8
-4.3
46.8
-66.7
-59.0
West Germany
-8.6
-4.7
-5.2
-4.8
-1.5
12.7
-2.5
-23.5
-7.9
France
-7.8
-7.2
-7.0
-3.8
-0.3
19.7
16.9
United Kingdom
NA
NA
-5.7
-4.5
0.5
-2.0
26.2
-3.6
3.9
Italy
1.0
-5.3
-6.6
-3.7
-1.0
Canada
8.7
-1.1
0.6
1.0
-2.1
6.5
0
21.1
-2.6
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Percent change from previous period
at an annual rate
10.5
10.6
5.8
9.1
6.3
-17.8
-20.3
-4.5
-13.7
9.3
-5.7
10.4
6.2
6.8
26.8
26.2
22.1
81.8
-2.1
7.0
5.8
1.0
1.7
8.5
4.0
2.7
11.3
5.1
-6.1
-4.7
-2.1
2.7
5.8
2.0
-31.1
-3.1
2.5
--2.1
-5.0
-2.5
2.0
-26.0
2.5
38.0
11.8
-9.2
--5.1
-1.6
-3.1
-3.8
5.5
4.2
-0.1
9.3
Canada
0.3
0.2
2.3
-2.3
-3.6
-13.1
-5.6
11.2
6.2
Dollar Cost of Foreign Currency
2.7
-12.9
4.6
0
-0.3
32.2
33.4
22.8
42.8
-2.2
-24.6
-7.2
-5.2
-11.5
-3.3
31.3
26.1
3.7
19.5
-1.0
-28.7
-20.8
-15.9
-14.7
-2.7
29.7
23.7
-39.1
15.7
-2.8
United Kingdom
-13.2
-13.4
-13.3
-11.9
-3.0
1.7
40.3
28.7
19.3
-7.7
Italy
-32.8
-18.8
-12.3
-15.6
-8.6
30.1
26.2
-4.7
18.8
-2.0
Canada
-2.5
-2.9
0.1
-5.1
-5.4
-6.9
4.1
13.1
6.4
-13.1
United States
90-day certificates of
deposit, secondary market
Japan
loans and discounts
(2 months)
West Germany
interbank loans
(3 months)
France
interbank money market
(3 months)
United Kingdom
sterling interbank loans
(3 months)
Italy
Milan interbank loans
(3 months)
Canada
finance paper (3 months)
Eurodollars
3-month deposits
1st Qtr 2nd Qtr Apr May Jun
7.79 7.23 NA 6.66 6.52 6.38 NA 6.12 5.98 NA
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Bananas
Fresh imported,
(Total world, $ per metric ton)
Beef (Q per pound)
Australia
(Boneless beef,
f.o.b. US Ports)
United States
(Wholesale steer beef,
midwest markets)
Cocoa (0 per pound)
89.8
74.3
92.1
106.2
98.7
95.7
84.9
81.4
81.4
Coffee ($ per pound)
1.28
1.40
1.32
1.44
1.43
2.01
1.92
1.77
1.51
Corn
(US #3 yellow,
c.i.f. Rotterdam, $ per metric ton)
150
123
148
150
125
116
113
117
118
Cotton
(World Cotton Prices, "A"
index, c.i.f. Osaka, US 0/lb.)
Palm Oil
(United Kingdom 5% bulk,
c.i.f., S per metric ton)
571
445
502
730
501
289
242
237
244
US (No. 2, milled,
4% c.i.f. Rotterdam)
632
481
514
514
484
453
440
323
293
Thai SWR
(100% grade B
c.i.f. Rotterdam)
Soybeans
(US #2 yellow,
c.i.f. Rotterdam, $ per metric ton)
Soybean Oil
(Dutch, f.o.b. ex-mill,
$ per metric ton)
507
447
527
727
571
407
349
343
351
Soybean Meal
(US, c.i.f. Rotterdam
$ per metric ton)
252
219
238
197
157
188
187
184
181
Sugar
(World raw cane, f.o.b.
Caribbean Ports, spot prices ? per pound)
Tea
Average Auction (London)
(Q per pound)
91.0
89.9
105.2
156.6
90.0
86.4
91.3
85.9
79.7
Wheat
(US #2. DNS
c.i.f. Rotterdam, $ per metric ton)
210
187
183
182
169
172
172
163
140
a The food index is compiled by The Economist for 14 food commodities which enter international trade. Commodities are weighted by 3-
year moving averages of imports into industrialized countries.
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Chrome Ore
(South Africa chemical
grade, $ per metric ton)
Copper a (bar, ? per pound)
79.0
67.1
72.0
62.4
64.5
64.5
65.0
64.4
64.1
Gold ($ per troy ounce)
460.0
375.5
424.4
360.0
317.2
342.6
339.9
342.6
342.5
Lead a (? per pound)
32.9
24.7
19.3
20.0
17.7
16.7
16.8
17.0
19.0
Manganese Ore
(48% Mn, $ per long ton)
82.1
79.9
Nickel ($ per pound)
Cathode major producer
3.5
3.2
LME Cash
2.7
2.2
Metals week,
New York dealers' price
Tungsten Ore
(contained metal,
$ per metric ton)
US Steel
(finished steel, composite,
$ per long ton)
Lumber Index 95 84
(1980=100)
Industrial Materials Index r 85 71
(1980= 100)
a Approximates world market price frequently used by major world
producers and traders, although only small quantities of these
metals are actually traded on the LME. As of February 1986 tin
prices from the Penang market.
b S-type styrene, US export price.
Quoted on New York market.
d Average of No. I heavy melting steel scrap and No. 2 bundles
delivered to consumers at Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, and Chicago.
e This index is compiled by using the average of 10 types of lumber
whose prices are regarded as bellwethers of US lumber construction
costs.
rThe industrial materials index is compiled by The Economist for
18 raw materials which enter international trade. Commodities are
weighted by 3-year moving averages of imports into industrialized
countries.
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World Crude Oil Production
Excluding Natural Gas Liquids
World
55,837
53,092
52,633
53,691
53,356
54,044
54,709
53,693
53,520
Non-Communist countries
41,602
38,810
38,228
39,257
38,692
39,758
40,423
39,407
39,181
Developed countries
12,886
13,276
13,864
14,302
14,730
15,022
15,070
14,872
13,949
United States
8,572
8,658
8,680
8,735
8,933
8,898
8,934
8,821
8,791
Canada
1,285
1,270
1,356
1,411
1,457
1,480
1,480
1,480
1,300
United Kingdom
1,811
2,094
2,299
2,535
2,533
2,711
2,699
2,699
2,554
Norway
501
518
614
700
785
856
870
860
319
Other
717
736
915
921
1,022
1,077
1,087
1,012
985
Non-OPEC LDCs
6,036
6,633
6,823
7,515
7,845
7,556
7,393
7,605
7,712
Mexico
2,321
2,746
2,666
2,746
2,733
2,376
2,400
2,219
2,358
Egypt
598
665
689
827
874
758
600
800
760
Other
3,117
3,222
3,468
3,942
4,238
4,422
4,393
4,586
4,594
OPEC
22,680
18,901
17,541
17,440
16,117
17,180
17,960
16,930
17,520
Algeria
803
701
699
638
645
602
550
600
600
Ecuador
211
211
236
253
280
275
220
300
300
Gabon
151
154
157
152
153
160
160
150
160
Indonesia
1,604
1,324
1,385
1,466
1,235
1,223
1,300
1,175
1,215
Iran
1,381
2,282
2,492
2,187
2,258
1,890
2,200
1,800
2,000
Iraq
993
972
922
1,203
1,437
1,732
1,880
1,650
1,500
Kuwait b
947
663
881
912
862
1,169
1,100
1,400
1,400
Libya
1,137
1,183
1,076
1,073
1,069
1,000
1,000
900
900
Neutral Zone
370
317
390
410
355
276
300
230
240
Nigeria
1,445
1,298
1,241
1,393
1,464
1,417
1,400
1,550
1,650
Qatar
405
328
295
399
302
352
300
350
180
Saudi Arabia b
9,625
6,327
4,867
4,444
3,290
4,256
4,600
4,000
4,600
UAE
1,500
1,248
1,119
1,097
1,146
1,287
1,400
1,305
1,255
Venezuela
2,108
1,893
1,781
1,813
1,621
1,541
1,550
1,520
1,520
Communist countries
14,235
14,282
14,405
14,434
14,664
14,286
14,286
14,286
14,339
USSR
11,800
11,830
11,864
11,728
11,749
11,350
11,350
11,350
11,390
China
2,024
2,042
2,121
2,286
2,496
2,496
2,496
2,496
2,496
Other
411
410
420
420
419
440
440
440
453
a Preliminary.
b Excluding Neutral Zone production, which is shown separately.
Production is shared equally between Saudi Arabia and Kuwait.
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Big Seven: Inland Oil Consumption
United States a
16,058
15,296
15,184
15,708
15,697
15,923
16,056
16,188
15,833
15,843
Japan
4,444
4,204
4,193
4,349
4,121
4,661
5,005
4,532
3,949
West Germany
2,120
2,024
2,009
2,012
2,060
2,096
2,406
2,141
France
1,744
1,632
1,594
1,531
1,493
1,626
2,009
1,525
1,679
1,222
United Kingdom
1,325
1,345
1,290
1,624
1,402
1,286
1,485
1,482
Italy b
1,705
1,618
1,594
1,513
1,516
1,718
1,855
1,535
1,495
Canada
1,617
1,454
1,354
1,348
1,344
1,346
1,374
1,183
1,239
a Including bunkers, refinery fuel, and losses.
b Principal products only prior to 1981.
Big Seven: Crude Oil Imports
United States
4,406
3,488
3,329
3,402
3,216
3,329
2,993
3,000
3,701
4,085
Japan
3,919
3,657
3,567
3,664
3,377
3,126
4,273
3,673
West Germany
1,591
1,451
1,307
1,335
1,284
1,321
1,225
1,429
France
1,804
1,596
1,429
1,395
1,476
1,430
1,420
1,380
1,608
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. .
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OPEC Average a 30.87 34.50 33.63 29.31 28.70 28.14 28.09 28.08 28.07 28.11
(Official Sales Price)
a F.o.b. prices set by the government for direct sales and, in most cases, for the producing company buy-back oil. Weighted by the volume
of production.
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Average Crude Oil Sales Prices
i .I I