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ON FILE USDA RELEASE
INSTRUCTIONS APPLY
Economic Intelligence Weekly
Secret
CIA No. 8138/74
14 August 1974
Copy N2 179
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Secret
ECONOMIC INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY
14 August 1974
25X1
Agricultural Prices Move Up; Prices of most US farm
commodities have strengthened in the wake of crop losses
and low world stocks. F------](See page 4.)
appears willing.
In India, improved rains have checked deterioration in the
fall grain crop. Normal rains during the next two months
are still needed. New Delhi is banking on another Soviet
grain loan to help meet its food needs. Moscow now
Bang!adesh officials continue to dramatize the severity of
recent floods to support pleas for additional foreign
assistance. Even if damage from the now receding waters
proves only moderate, food stocks provide little safety
margin.
USSR: Dimmer Grain Prospects; Dry weather in July has
lowered our estimate of Soviet grain output from 205
million to slightly under 200 million tons.
(See page 1.)
25X1
SovietOff icials, after dragging their heels, now agree that a
US agricultural team can tour the spring wheat areas in late
August.
China: Unfavorable Harvest Prospects; Scheduled grain
imports for FY 1975 already are up 20% above FY 1974.
(See page 2.)
Canada: New Beef Restrictions; Recently announced
quotas pose problems for US and Australian producers.
(See page 3.)
political events. The Italians have resumed dollar sales,
averaging $50 million a day, to support the lira. Gold was
fixed at $152.25 an ounce in London Monday, down
slightly for the week.
25X1
25X6
Australia's Labor Government has been given broad
powers over mineral and energy development policies
under a bill passed last week by the joint session of the
Australian Parliament. The legislation-rejected on three
previous votes-is designed to further the government's
policy of promoting Australian ownership and control of
its natural resources. Canberra's toughening attitude
toward foreign investment has already resulted in a sharp
decline in new investment in the mining industry.
Saudi Arabia has initiated a program to spread its rapidly
mounting oil wealth among its 6 million people.
(See page 7.)
In Europe, the dollar strengthened last week, rising
between 0.5% and 1.5% against the world's major
currencies. Only minimal dollar intervention was neces-
sary to smooth out the markets in the face of last week's
Copper Prices in London reached a yearly low of 82 cents
a pound on Friday. Japanese copper sales boosted LME
copper stocks to a yearly high of over 50,001) tons. Prices
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Secret
are likely to start back up in view of the continuing copper
strike by some US firms and reports that Japanese sales
have ended. Lead and zinc prices remained steady durin
the week.
The Dominican Republic, by applying for membership in
the International Bauxite Association, hopes to strength-
an its drive for increased taxes and royalties on its own
bauxite exports. (See page 7.)
A Reynolds Metal Company Subsidiary in Guyana is
awaiting action by the government following a breakdown
in negotiations over a proposed tax increase on bauxite,
similar to the Jamaican formula. A cabinet meeting was to
convene on Tuesday to discuss the possible introduction
of legislation to impose Guyana's demands.
PUBLICATIONS OF INTEREST
Chile: The Junta Struggles for Economic Recovery (See
page 8.)
Recant Data Concerning Internal Economic Activities
(See page A-1.)
Recent Data Concerning External Economic Activities
(See page A-2.)
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ON FILE USDA RELEASE
INSTRUCTIONS APPLY
USSR: DIMMER GRAIN PROSPECTS
Because of dry weather in July, we have reduced our estimate of the 1974
Soviet grain crop from 205 million tons to slightly less than 200 million tons.
Even though the expected crop would represent the second largest in history, it
would barely meet rising requirements.
Crop Progress
Rainfall - by far the most important short-run determinant of grain output -
was abundant over most of the grain area from mid-April through June, promising
a harvest even larger than the plan target of 205.6 million tons. In July, weather
conditions turned sour in a large part of the grain belt. West of the Urals, with
the start of the harvest, rains were heavy and accompanied by strong winds. East
of the Urals, the rains failed over a wide area at a time when the grain had reached
the critical heading stage. In the first half of July, scant rainfall and very high
temperatures prevailed over about 10 million hectares of grain in Tselinograd and
Pavlodar Oblasts in Kazakhstan and in Altay Kray in West Siberia.
We estimate that the hot and dry conditions resulted in a loss of about
8 million tons of grain, primarily spring wheat. Citing widespread weather
difficulties, Deputy Minister of Agriculture B. Runov told a group of USDA
officials last week that this year's harvest would be "only average."
By early August the harvest rate was substantially below last year's level. If
nothing else, the wet and lodged crop west of the Urals will reduce the milling
quality of the wheat. Reduced quality will especially hurt because we estimate
that far less wheat will be produced this year - 85 million tons, compared with
110 million tons in 1973.
Outlook for Imports
The reduced output would fall at the lower end of the range of estimated
Soviet domestic requirements and export commitments - 198 million to 211
million tons. The regime has the option of drawing down carryover stocks of 20
million to 30 million tons - an option made possible by the record harvest of
1973. At this stage, the milling quality of the carryover wheat is the key to
Note: Comments and queries regarding the .Economic Intelligence Weekly are welcomed.
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prospects for Soviet imports in FY 1975. Another factor in Moscow's attitude
toward grain imports is price. A number of Soviet agricultural officials have hinted
over the past few years that corn and soybeans might be bought to support the
livestock program if prices were right. But prices are still high on the world
market - and presumably will stay up if US harvest prospects do not improve.
China's 1974 grain crop appears unlikely to reach the record 250 million tons
harvested last year. Even if the weather were unusually favorable for the rest of
the year, the chances of output increasing as fast as population - by 2%, or
5 million tons - are small.
Early-harvested grain crops - which normally account for 40% of gain
output - were poor because of drought in the north and unseasonable frost in
the south. Erratic spring rains, together with unusually low temperatures, have
forced changes in acreage patterns that will adversely affect fall-harvested crops.
Furthermore, the growth of domestic fertilizer production has slowed, and deliveries
from Japan - China's major source of imported fertilizer - have been cut back.
Grain imports, meanwhile, are increasing. Contracts for delivery of 9.6 million
tons of grain in FY 1975 -- 20% more than in FY 1974 - have already been
Chinese Imports of Grain
Mi
llion Tons
FY 1974
FY 19751
Wheat Corn
Total
Wheat
Corn
Total
Total 5.9 2.1
8.0
9.0
0.6
9.6
United States 3.1 1.7
4.8
2.7
0.1
2.8
Canada 1.6 ....
1.6
4.0
....
4.0
Australia. 1.2 ....
1.2
1.6
....
1.6
Argentina .... 0.3
0.3
0.5
0.6
1.1
Other .... ....
....
0.2
....
0.2
2
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signed, and more purchases are likely. The US share of these purchases has declined
as a result of Peking's dissatisfaction with US corn and of its deliberate policy
of diversifying sources of supply. In the past year, China has concluded three-year
agreements with Canada, Australia, and Argentina to provide more than 4 million
tons of grain annually through 1976.
The long-term program to end dependence on imported grain and chemical
fertilizers - a program built around the purchase of 13 urea fertilizer complexes -
will not help until near the end of the decade. In the interim, Chinese agricultural
producL.n and the need for foreign grain will remain sensitive to weather
conditions.
Canadian quotas on beef and
cattle imports threaten to hurt US and
Australian sales and intensify market
disruptions caused by EC and Jap-
anese import bans. The quotas follow
soon after Ottawa lifted the ban on
imports from the United States-
imposed because of possible contami-
nation by DES, a growth hormone in
cattle feed.
The quotas, instituted as part of a
program to protect Canadian pro-
ducers, are for one year beginning 12
August. They restrict total imports to
the 1969-73 average-126 million
pounds of fresh and frozen beef and
veal and 83,000 head of cattle, other
than young animals bought for feed-
ing.
Canada is a major foreign market
for US beef and cattle, accounting for
$148 million in sales in 1973-50% of
US beef exports and 80% of cattle
exports. The US quota will be about
18 million pounds of fresh and frozen
beef and veal and all 83,000 head of
cattle. The quota and the short-lived
DES import ban are expected to
reduce US beef and cattle exports to
Canada this year to about 60% of the
1973 level.
Canadian Imports
of Cattle and Beef and Veal
3
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Australia's quota of 47 million pounds ends its hopes for a sizable rise in
deliveries to Canada. Australia had previously been stung when Japan, a major
customer, prohibited beef imports through 1974. These developments could
stimulate increased Australian exports to the United States and put pressure on beef
prices later this year. New Zealand, the third largest beef exporter to Canada, has a
quota 27% above its beef and veal sales to Canada in 1973.
AGRICULTURAL PRICES MOVE UP
Prices of most US farm commodities entering international trade have
strengthened following several months of decline from record highs. Low world
stocks, withholding of commodities by farmers, and speculative buying prompted
by adverse weather are contributing to the pressure on supplies.
Price increases since early June for wheat, corn, and soybeans reflect mainly
market reaction to dry weather and crop losses in the United States and Canada.
Prices will remain sensitive to crop production announcements, to developments
in world livestock markets, and to Asian and Soviet import requirements.
Booming demand for sugar in the face of tight supplies has intensified pressure
on prices. Free market prices for raw sugar have almost doubled since January
to a record high of about 30 cents per pound. Because of low world stocks, buyers
are jittery about harvest prospects and are making precautionary purchases.
Cotton prices, in contrast, have continued to decline since last winter's high
of 80 cents per pound. This decline reflects forecasts of increased world production
in 1974/75, importers' decisions to draw down their large stocks, and a depressed
consumer market for textiles in most developed countries.
4
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Secret
AGRICULTURAL PRICES
WHEAT
o
Jul Jul
1972 73 74
SUGAR
SOYBEANS
o L
Jul 1972 73 74
Lo-_1------ __ .-- t ..
Jul Jul
FOOD INDEX*
O
O
0 200
100 1._ l ?
Jul 1972 73 74
This Is a compiled index by the Economist
for 16 food commodities which enter
international trade. Commodities are
weighted by 3-year moving averages
of Imports Into industralized countries.
Frices in US $)
COMMODITiES 12 Aug Week Ago Month Ago Yeai Ago
Wheat-Kansas City #2 Hard Winter (bushel)
4.21
4.33
4.37
5.19
Corn-Chicago #2 Yellow (bushel)
3.43
3.52
3.22
3.38
Soybeins-Chicago #1 Yellow (bushel)
7.69
6.30
6.37
10.59
Sugar-World Raw New York #11 (pound)
0.2980
0.2925
0.2400
0.0905
Cotton-Memphis 1'/i'o' (pound)
0.51 c0
0.5375
0.5395
0.6275
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Saudi Arabia: People to Share in Oil Wealth
The Saudi council of ministers has decided on a series of actions to lower
the cost of living and spread oil income among the people. Government salaries,
including the military, are due for a substantial boost, to the benefit of a half
million people. The price of domestic fue! will be reduced to the lowest level
in the world; gasoline is already pegged at 28 cents per gallon. Housing will be
subsidized; all Saudis will be eligible for interest-free, 15-year loans covering 70%
of the cost. Electricity rates will be halved. Up to now, most of the 6 million
Saudis have had little opportunity to share in their country's rapidly mounting
wealth.
Dominican Republic to Join Bauxite Group
Santo Domingo has formally applied for membership in the International
Bauxite Association, made up of seven bauxite-producing countries which account
for 84% of US bauxite and alumina supplies. The Dominican Republic, the source
of 4.5% of US supplies, hopes to strengthen its position in its current negotiation
with an Alcoa subsidiary for increased taxes and royalties. At the same time,
membership in the group will bring pressure on Santo Domingo to hold oat in
the negotiate m for no less than the Jamaican tax increase formula. The move thus
may complicate US efforts to persuade the government to restrain its demands.
7
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Secret
Publication of Interest
Chile: The Junta Struggles for Economic Recovery
(ER IM 74-10, August 1974,
The memorandum describes the efforts of Chile's military junta (a) to restore
economic order, (b) to deal with an inflation that will exceed 300% in 1974, (c)
to increase agricultural and copper production, and (d) to return Chile to a market
economy. GDP will probably grow 6%-7% this year, and Chile's international
payments position will be the best since 1970, as a result of record copper earnings.
Full economic recovery and stabilization, however, appear to be several years away.
a
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INTERNAL ECONOMIC INDICATORS
GNP'
Censlunl Market Prices
Average Annual
Growth Rate Since
Wl(LESAI.E PrtlClis
Average Annual
Industrial
Growth note Since
Latest
Percent Change
Iran) Previous 1 Year Previous
Percent Chang-0
Latest from Previous 1 Year 3 Months
Ouerter
Ouster 1970 Eorher ouster
Month Month 1970 Earlier Earlier
United States
7411
I -0,3 1
3.8
-1,1
-1.2
United States
Jul 74
2.7
9.3
25.1
34.2
Japan
741
-5.0
-3.6
-18.6
Japan
Jun 74
1.3
11.2
35.3
11.2
West Germany
74 I
1.2
1.5
5.0
West Germany
Jun 74
0.2
7.0
13.1
10.3
France
73 IV
1.8
5.7
7.3
France
Jun 74
-1.0
12.8
34.3
13.0
United Kingdom
74 I
- 3.5
- 4,4
-13.3
United Kingdom
Jun 74
1,3
10.9
24.2
25.4
Italy
73 IV
1.9
5.3
7,7
Italy
May 74
0.7
14,5
43.0
35.0
Canada
741
1.7
3.0
7.0
Canada
May 74
0.8
11,2
23.5
30.4
Average Annual
Growth Rate Since
Average Annual
Growth Rate Since
Percent Change
Percent Change
Latest from Previous
t Year 3 Months
Latest from Previous I Year 3 Months
Month Month
1970 Eorher Earlier"
Month Month 1910 Earlier Earlier
United States
Jun 74
0
4.6
- 0.1
2.4
Unit
ed States
Jul, 74
1.0
0.1
11.1
11.7
Japan
Jun 74
-2.5
6.8
-0.9
-7.1
Jap
an
May 74
0.3
11.3
23.1
15.7
West Germany
May 74
1.1
3.5
0
-0.7
Wes
t German
y
Jun 74
0.4
6.3
6.9
6.5
France
May 74
2.4
8.1
2.4
-1.1
Fran
ce
Jun 74
1.1
8.0
13.8
16,9
United Kingdom
May 74
-1.1
2.2
0.2
22.4
Unit
ed Kingdo
m
May 74
1.4
10.5
16.0
25.3
Italy
Jun 74
5.7
5.8
6.5
3.9
Italy
Jun 74
1.3
9.5
16.6
16.9
Canada
May 14
- 0.5
6.2
2.6
2.5
Can
ada
Jun 74
1.3
6.5
11.4
15.5
RE.TAII. SALES*
Current Prices Average Annual
Growth Rate Since
Average Annual
Growth Rate Since
Percent Change
Latest from Previous 1 Year 3 Months
Percent Change
Latest from Previous I Year 3 Months
Month Month 1970 Earlier Earlier"
Month Morih 1970 Earlier Earlier
United States
Jul 74
4.2
10.2
8.4
14.6
Unit
ed States
Jul 74
-0.1
6.7
5,4
9.5
Japan
Mar74
-4.8
11.1
6.6
-1.8
Japa
n
Apr 74
-t).6
17.4
10.5
16.7
West Germany
Mar74
-1.3
8.2
5.6
14.6
Wes
t German
y
Apr74
C3
9.1
0.4
9.5
France
Apr 74
-3.1
6.1
15.0
5.5
Fran
ce
Feb 74
-0.3
11.9
9.0
14.9
United Kingdom
Mar 74
1.3
12.0
9.4
6.5
Unit
ed Kingdo
m
Jun 74
- 0.6
8.1
0.8
8.3
Italy
Dec 13
3.1
17.2
25.5
47.1
Italy
Dec 73
2.6
21.2
17.9
22.1
Canada
May 74
5.1
12.4
18.2
17.7
Cana
da
Jun 74
-2.0
13.0
11.2
21.2
1 Year 3 Months I Month
Representative Rates Latest Date Earlier Earlier Earlier
United States
Dealer-placed finance paper
Aug 7
11.43
8.50
9.00
9.00
Japan
Call money
Jul 31
13.25
7.50
12.00
12.63
West Germany
Interbank loans(3Months)
Aug 7
9.44
15.08
8.70
9.10
France
Call money
Jul 31
13.50
8.75
12.88
14.25
ll
'S
d
d
United Kingdom
Sterling interbank loan (3 ma)
Aug 7
13.08
11.75
13.29
13.27
easona
y a
juste
.
"Average for latest 3 months compared
Canada
Finance paper
Aug 7
11.63
7.50
11.15
11.05
with average for previous 3 months.
Euro-Dollars
Three-month deposits
Aug 7
13.60
11.50
11.74
13.91
14 August 1974
Office of Economic Research/CIA
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IXi'I UIS"
I,o.b.
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EXTERNAL ECONOMIC INDICATORS
EXPORT PRICES
United States
Japan
West Germany
France
United Kingdom
Italy
Canada
IMP(1 PT S"
1.011.
United States
Japan
West Germany
France
United Kingdom
Italy
Canada
TRADE 13AI.ANCE"
United States
Japan
West Germany
France
United Kingdom
Italy
Canada
Million US $
Million US $ 1074 1013
Jun 74 8,357 40,008 32,110
Jun 74 4,841 24,020 10,890
Jun 74 0,320 42,780 29,813
Jun 74 4,058 22,210 10,918
Jut, 74 3,215 17,040 13,013
Jun 74 2,270 13,285 9,401
May 74 2,802 12,812 10,077
Percent
change
46.1
47,5
43.5
31.3
25.2
41.3
27.1
Percent
Chango
41.8
84.6
30.8
47.2
49.3
61.8
32.3
Jun 74
Jun 74
Jun 74
!-in 74
Jun 74
Jun 74
May 74
moron us S
Million US $ 1914 1973
8,022 40,871 33,068
4,649 26,195 14,190
4,844 30,517 23,330
4,137 23,995 16,303
4,333 23,145 15,498
2,817 17,271 10,872
2,635 12,196 9,220
Million US $ 1974 1973
Jun 74 I -265 -263 I -948
Jun 74 1 -8 I -1,575 , 2,501
Jun 74
Jun 74
Jun 74
Jun 74
May 74
1,476
-81
-1.119
-547
167
12,280
-1,779
-6,100
-3,986
616
6,483
815
- 1,885
-1,271
858
Change
B85
-4,075
5,785
-2,395
-4,215
-2,714
-240
BASIC BALANCE`"
Current and Long-Term-Capital Transactions
Latest Period Cumulative (Million US $I
United States'
Japan
West Germany
France
United Kingdom
Italy
Canada
Million US $ 1973 1972
741 2,065 2,065 -1,006
Jun 74 -1,206 -8,420 -4,373
Apr 74 860 3,253 917
73 IV -431 -2,471 -369
73 IV -1,394 -3,164 -1,954
7311 -336 639 971
741 -195 -195 -191
United States
Japan
West Germany
France
United Kingdom
Italy
Canada
End of Billion US S Jun 1970 Earlier
Jun 74 14.9 14.5 12.9
Jul 74 13.2 4.1 15.2
Jun 74 34.2 8.8 32.3
Jun 74 8.2 4.4 11.6
Jun 74 6.7 2.8 7.0
Jun 74 5.3 4.7 6.0
Jul 74 6.0 4.3 5.8
'Seasonally adjusted.
"Converted Into US dollars at current market rates of exchange,
14August 1974
Change
3,071
-4,047
2,336
-2,102
-1,210
-332
-4
3 Months
Earlier
14.6
12.7
32.9
8.1
6.4
6.7
6.2
United States
Japan
West Germany
Franco
United Kingdom
Italy
Canada
EXPORT PRICES
National Currency
United States
Japan
West Germany
France
United Kingdom
Italy
Canada
IMPORT PRICES
National Currency
United States
Japan
West Germany
France
United Kingdom
Italy
Canada
Percent Chungu-
Lutest from Previous
Month Mantle
Jun 74 I 3.1 1
Jun 74
Mny74
Mar 74
Mar 74
Jan 74
Apr 74
0.9
4.4
0.2
7.2
-1.2
3.2
1970
11.0
17.1
16.1
13.1
11.0
10.0
14.8
Average Annual
Growth Rate Since
Pncon Chongo
Latest train Previous
Month Month 1970
Jun 74 3.1 11.8
Jun 74 2.7 10.2
May 74 1.6 4.7
Mar 74 3.4 8.8
Mar 74 4.2
Jon74 4.9
Apr 74 2.7
Percent Change
Latest from Previous
Month Month
Jun 74 i 0 I
Jun 74
May 74
Mar 74
Mar 74
Jan 74
Apr 74
2.3
2.9
5.9
6.4
10.8
-1.5
EXCHANGE RATES Spot Rate
As of 9 Aug 74
JapanlYen)
West Germany 1Martk)cho
France (Franc) (Food
United Kingdom Sterringl
Italy (Liral
Canada loaner)
US S
Per Unit
0.0033
0.3865
0.2107
2.3720
0.0015
1.0238
Dec 86
19.75
53.74
4.36
-15.00
-4.18
10.99
1970
18.5
17.7
6.5
14.2
20.9
19.6
9.9
18 Dec
1971
1.76
24.56
7.01
-8.97
-10.81
2.61
19 Mar
1973
-13.12
9.15
- 4.40
-3.62
-13.33
2.62
United States
Japan
West Germany
France
United Kingdom
Italy
Canada
Dec 86
-15.03
9.89
30.33
-17.76
-34.51
-25.90
8.25
Average Annual
Growth !Iola Since
I Year 3 Months
Earlier Earlier
i 28.0 , 14.7
36.1
30.6
12.8
19.4
19.1
43.0
29.7
96.7
8.7
49.6
9,8
/8.7
1 Your
Earlier
28.0
44.5
14.9
20.2
26.4
31.3
38.2
11.8
10.9
12.5
3 Months
Earlier
14.7
30.6
23.1
32.7
44.5
52.2
82.0
Average Annual
Growth Rate Since
1 Year
Earlier
47.8
83.2
25,5
52.1
60.9
65.5
27.8
18 Dec
1971
-5.76
-3.63
13.38
-4.38
-20.33
-24.57
1.65
19 Mar
1973
0.81
-15.43
8.36
-6.83
-5.96
-17.86
3.29
3 Moths
Earlier
34.8
27.7
16.5
177.0
107.4
125.4
57.1
2 Aug
1974
-0.54
- 0.57
- 1.36
-0.52
-0.71
0.10
2 Aug
1974
0.27
-0.44
-0.04
-0.93
-0-20
-0.17
0.30
"'Weighting is based on each listed country's trod, with 18 other industrialized
countries to reflect the competitive impact of exchange-rate variations
among the major currencies.
Approved For Release 2009/09/29: CIA-RDP85T00875RO01500150035-8