ECONOMIC INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85T00875R001500150047-5
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 19
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: September 28, 2009
• Sequence Number: 47
• Publication Date: October 30, 1974
• Content Type: REPORT

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Secret
Economic Intelligence Weekly
Secret
CIA No. 8226/74
30 October 1974
Copy N? 414
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ECONOMIC INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY
Developed Countries: Industrial Slump Deepens; Output
in seven leading countries has weakened progressively in
1974, with no upturn in sight. see page 1.)
future requests.
The EC Agreement to float a Community loan of $3 billion
to help finance oil bills is only a token gesture toward
meeting members' financial needs. Further EC loans
require the unanimous approval of the Council, as well as
parliamentary approval in a number of member states,
including West Germany. Bonn will look closely at any
in the industrialized West.1
West Germany registered an $18 billion trade surplus in
the first nine months of this year. For the entire year the
trade surplus will probably exceed $23 billion, the largest
World Food Conference: Colliding Views: The most
controversial proposals involve the setting up of global
grain reserves. ~~ee page 4.)
World Rice Prospects Tighten; An appreciable increase in
production is hardly likely in 1974/75. see
page 10.)
India: Search for Grain Continues: New Delhi now has
arranged for 5 million of the 6 million tons of minimum
imports needed for the government distribution system in
FY 1975.Oseepage 10.)
i
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USSR: New Round of Grain Purchases; The Soviets have
bought more than 5 million tons of grain for delivery in
FY 1975 and reportedly are still In the market. F_
see page 7.)
Eastern Europe: Harvest Held Up; Heavy rains have
slowed harvesting in Czechoslovakia, Hungary, and Yugo-
slavia. see page 10.)
The Dollar continued to decline againzt most major
currencies last week. Indications that short-term dollar
interest rates would continue to decline remain the major
factor in the downward trend. European joint float
currencies gained from 0.5% to nearly 1% against the
dollar. The Swisj franc, buoyed by the lifting last Monday
of the interest ban on foreign deposits, gained more than
1%.
Iron Ore Exporters to Organize; India, Algeria, and
Venezuela are ringleaders in an effort to boost ore prices.
see page 11.)
25X1
Copper Prices on the LME ranged between 59.8 and 61.4
cents a pound last week in a lackluster market. Weekend
news from the United States of lower prime interest rates
more than offset the negative influence of higher LME
stocks, however, and copper opened this week at 63.2
cents a pound. The price of tin rebounded from its low of
$3.07 a pound last week to $3.29 on Monday. Zinc and
lead prices held steady at 36.5 cents and 24.2 cents a
pound, respectively.
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DEVELOPING COUNTRIES hard currency countries and is having minimal impact on
25X1
Kuwait: Oil Revenue and Investment Flows In 1974; The USSR: Diesel Truck Plant Postponed; The rescheduling of
mounting oil revenues will be invested largely in the construction of the Krasnoyarsk plant will cut sales of US
United States as the Eurodollar market is loaded up with automobile-making equipment. see page
petrodollars. see page 6.) 11.)
January with a capital of $200 million.
African Countries now are receiving Arab funds to assist
them in meeting higher oil costs. Uganda, Tanzania, and
Liberia have signed agreements enabling them to begin
using credits from an Arab Fund for Africa, set up in
25X1
India: The Foodgrain Outlook Through 1985 (See page
25X1 12.)
COMMUNIST COUNTRIES
Canton Fair Attendance Lags; As a result of economic
problems at home and disappointment with the spring
fair, foreign businessmen have come to Canton in fewer Recent Data Concerning Internal Economic Activities
numbers this fall. F--~see page 11.) (See page A-1.)
Soviet Fears of Inflation Groundless; The worldwide Recent Data Concerning External Economic Activities
inflation so far has helped the Soviet trade balance with (See page A-2.)
ii
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DEVELOPED COUNTRIES: INDUSTRIAL SLUMP DEEPENS
Industrial growth in the seven leading developed countries has weakened
progressively in 1974. In August, for the first time in four years, their combined
monthly output fell below the year-earlier level.
? The downturn is most pronounced in Japan, where industrial output was
3% lower in July and August than a year earlier.
? After showing no growth for many months, West German output has
now slipped below the 1973 level.
? British production also is down compared with 1973, though not so much
in recent months -is in the first half, when oil and coal were in short
supply.
? Industrial growth rates in France and Canada, while holding up better,
have nonetheless weakened.
Rapid inflation, tight crt:dlt, and depressed confidence have hurt production
of both consumer items and capital goods. Sales of consumer durables, especially
automobiles, have been hit particularly hard. Unemployment in Western Europe
has risen more than 15% above the average level of 1973.
Production almost certainly will remain in the doldrums well into 1975.
Consumer demand will weaken further as unemployment edges up. Business
investment will lose strength with the shrinking of profits. Industrial exports are
vulnerable because of the worldwide economic slowdown.
of businessmen think inventories are abnormally high.
50% since January and a recent survey in France shows that a growing number
example, the ratio of inventories to shipments of finished goods has jumped by
Even if the countries soon switch to expansionary policies, industrial
production will remain depressed because of the swollen inventories. In Japan, for
Note: Comments and queries regarding the Economic Intelligence Weekly are welcomed. They may be directed
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Developed Countries: Percent Change in Industrial Growth Rates*
Average Annual
Growth 1967-72
^ Growth July-August 1974'
------ 7.1
5.2
--- 29
1o
F-1
'Figures for January-June and July-August show the change from the comparable period in 1973.
"Estimated.
m_-__-------5.4
4.5
LI
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Developed Countries: Recent Industrial Performance*
Percent Change From Same Month in 1973
L JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG
'Included are Canada, France, Italy, Japan, United Kingdom, United States, and West Germany.
Figures for individual countries are weighted by industrial output in 1973, valued at 1971 prices
and converted to dollars at average 1973 exchange rates.
564491 10.74
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WORLD FOOD CONFERENCE: COLLIDING VIEWS
The UN World Food Conference convenes next week in Rome in an
atmosphere of insecurity about world food supplies and contention over what
should be done.
Global grain production has fallen for the second time in three years, and
stocks have been drawn down to a post-WWII low. High prices for grain and
fertilizers are beggaring the LDCs. Mounting food deficits are forecast for the
developing countries. These developments induced the UN General Assembly last
December to take up the US suggestion for a global food conference.
Preparatory sessions brought general agreement that the Conference should
focus on three major issues:
? boosting food production in developing countries,
? developing programs to improve nutrition, and
? devising a World Food Security scheme that includes grain stocks for
emergency use, for regular food aid programs, and for shortfalls in ex-
port availabilities.
Grain Reserve Proposals
Success of the Conference will depend largely on how highly controversial
proposals on food security are resolved. FAO Director General Addeke Boerma
of the Netherlands has proposed a coordinated system of nationally owned reserve
stocks of grain in developed and developing countries. An international group would
decide on release of these stocks to mitigate serious food shortages and help stabilize
prices.
The United States has floated a proposal that stresses availability of supplies
rather than price stabilization; calls for participation by the USSR, which is not
an FAO member; sharply limits the number of countries that will initially negotiate
on the scheme; and provides for a governing body such as the international Wheat
Council, which operates outside the framework of FAO.
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The US proposal has evoked several criticisms:
? LDCs believe that they will not be properly represented in a small forum,
? several observers say it is unrealistic to expect the USSR to participate,
11111d
? the EC and Japan want more emphasis on price stabilization.
The Conference probably will approve some compromise between the two
proposals. Regardless of the nature of the compromise, two or three years of good
crops will be needed before world grain reserves would be sufficient to appreciably
enhance world food security.
Food Aid Programs
The LDCs - with some support from the EC - will push hard for multiyear
food-aid programs for the most needy countries. The US
government, though
sympathetic to the concept, cannot commit funds for long-term programs under
normal budget procedures. Major grain producers have reservations about providing
10 million tons of grain annually tender an international food-aid program, as
Boerma has proposed.
Other Measures
Various proposals aimed at boosting food production and improving nutrition
in the developing countries will require more money than is now available through
international organizations. In support of new programs, the Secretary-General of
the Conference, Sayed A. Marei of Egypt, is lobbying for an annual agricultural
development fund of $1 billion, financed equally by developed countries and the
oil producers. The Rind would be administered by a World Food Coi.incil, a followup
group proposed by Marei to carry out Conference recommendations.
Such a fund, strongly favored by the LDCs and China, may be established
in spite of opposition from a number of developed countries. Chances are good
that OPEC countries would agree to match funds obtained from the developed
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KUWAIT: OIL REVENUE AND INVESTMENT FLOWS IN 1974
Kuwaiti oil receipts will exceed $6 billion in the second half of 1974, or
rive times first-half revenues. The current account surplus will jump to an estimated
$5.8 billion, compared with less than $1 billion in the first half. Whereas Kuwait
has traditionally invested in the United Kingdom, much of its new surplus funds
are moving in increasing volume to the United States,
Kuwait: Estimated Oil Receipts, 1974
Billion US $
Total
1st Qtr
0.5
2d Qtr
0.7
3d Qtr
3.5
4th Qtr
2.6
Total
7.3
Receipts, excluding retro-
active payments
0.5
0.7
1.3
1.8
4.3
Retroactive payments
....
....
2.2
0.8
3.0
The dramatic increase in second-half oil receipts reflects traditional lags in
payments for equity oil and delayed company payments for government-owned
oil. Royalties and taxes are generally paid at the end of the month following the
calendar quarter the oil is lifted. Thus, the impact of the January price increase
was not reflected until April's payments. Concessionaires were also allowed to delay
payment on participation oil because of uncertainties surrounding the timing and
terms of the final agreement. A $1.9 billion lump sum retroactive payment was
made during July. Regular payments for participation oil began in September, with
the remaining retroactive payments apparently being distributed through the rest
of the year.
Kuwait: Provisional Balance of Payments, 1974
Estimated First Half
Projected Second Half
Export receipts
1,500
6,400
Oil
1,200
6,100
Non-oil
300
300
Import payments (f.o.b.)
700
800
Trade balance
800
5,600
Net services
100
200
Currer.,t account balancel
900
5,800
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Kuwait should have little problem managing its growing wealth. Its investment
institutions and financial managers are the most sophisticated in the Middle East.
The bulk of the funds will be handled by the Minister of Finance with three
public-private investment companies -- the Kuwait lnvestmcnt Company, the
Kuwait Foreign Trading Contracting and Investment Company, and the Kuwait
International Investment Company -- also playing an active role.
At the beginning of 1974, a substantial part of official reserves and private
holdings consisted of sterling assets. This concentration reflected longstanding
economic and political ties with the United Kingdom, the continuing influence
of British financial experts and institutions, and the high proportion of oil revrnues
received in sterling. Kuwait is now following a more diversified investment policy.
Kuwaiti investment in the United States is soaring. By the end of the third
quarter, it topped $2 billion, more than three times the value at the end of the
second quarter. Continuing concern over the ability of the Eurodollar market to
absorb additional petrodollars will probably ensure a substantia! flow of Kuwaiti
funds into the United States during the present quarter.
USSR: NEW ROUND OF GRAIN PURCHASES
In the past month, the Soviet Union has purchased more than 5 million tons
of wheat and corn for delivery in FY 1975 and reportedly is still in the market.
This amount - together with the 850,000 tons carrying over from the preceding
fiscal year - compares with 12-1/2 million tons imported in FY 1974 and 24
million tons in FY 1973.
USSR: New Grain Purchases for Delivery in FY 1975
Thousand Tons
Supplier
Wheat
Corn
Total
3,425
1,905
United States
1,200
1,000
Australia
1,000
Argentina
625
855
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The Soviets began the new round of buying in mid-September in Argentina --
moving in early October to the United States, where they were frustrated in buying
all the corn that they wanted. They subsequently have bou^,ht wheat from Australia
and are rumored to be closing additional grain deals with Canada, Thailand, France,
and Sweden.
The purchases began just as the grain harvest in the USSR was ending. The
harvest was slowed by poor weather, with the corn crop apparently below
expectations. Unofficial Soviet estimates of t! total crop have ranged from 190
million to 210 million tons. Our estimate is 195 million tons, 5 million to 15
million short of domestic requirements and export commitments.
SOVIET FEARS OF INFLATION GROUNDLESS
Recently expressed Soviet concern over the impact of double-digit world
inflation on the Soviet economy is unfounded, given the high degree of
self-sufficiency and central control.
As part of the widening exchange of views under detente, Soviet economists
have recently been more open in expressing their concern over the negative impact
that global inflation might have on the USSR. At a joint US-USSR symposium
in September, several Soviet speakers departed from the traditional view that
inflatioij is a "capitalist malady," presenting little or no danger to Communist states.
They pointed out that the need to import grain at high world prices strains the
Soviet policy of keeping retail prices for basic food products at fixed levels. They
noted also that increasing subsidies are required to cover differences between the
import and domestic prices of machinery and equipment.
This concern over world inflation stems largely from their realization of the
deepening interdependence among the world's economies. The past isolation of
the USSR is being breached by rising commercial intercourse with the West - trade
was up 59Io in 1973 -- and by long-:enn pressures to align domestic prices with
costs, including costs of imports. Purchases of Western equipment and technology --
especially for the chemical and electronics industries - have increased sharply.
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Furthermore, fulfillment of Soviet plans to increase the supply of meat depends
on the availability of large supplies of foreign grain in years of poor harvests.
Effects Exaggerated
We feel that these economists overstate the effects of global inflation on the
USSR. As a huge continental economy with tremendous natural resources, the
USSR can satisfy most of its needs internally. The worldwide inflation thus affects
the prices of only a small fraction of the machinery being introduced into industry
and the grain going to the consumer.
Indeed, the inflation so far has proved to be a net advantage to the USSR.
The prices of major Soviet exports -- gold, oil, and other primary products- - have
risen even more sharply than import prices. The Soviets are now enjoying a
turnaround in their hard currency balance of trade - from a deficit of $1.75 billion
in 1973 to a surplus of between $1 billion and $1.5 billion in 1974. This advantage
may be eroded by future inflation, however, as the prices of manufactures are
continuing to rise rapidly while the worldwide downturn in economic activity is
depressing the prices of some raw materials.
The world inflation is having minimal impact on internal Soviet budgetary
and economic affairs. Central control over foreign trade, foreign exchange, and
budgetary subsidies insulates the domestic economy from much of the impact of
international price movements. Nonetheless, some inflationary pressure does occur
in the USSR as wage increases typically outstrip the availability of consumer goods.
The extra rubles have been absorbed partly by growing savings deposits and partly
by hidden and overt increases in prices. Hidden increases often take the form of
eliminating the less expensive product lines. Sales of meat and consumer durables
have been particularly susceptible to this form of "creeping inflation."
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World Rice Prospects Tighten
An appreciable increase in the world rice crop in 1974/75 is not in the cards,
because of unfavorable weather, particularly in Asia, where 90% of the rice is grown.
This recent conclusion by the UK Commonwealth Secretariat is consistent with
a current USDA forecast of a 1% decrea.e in the world rice crop from the 1973/74
record of 3 10 million tons. Another record crop is needed to rebuild world stocks
depleted by the Asian drought of 1972. Reduced world supplies and sharply
increased demand for US rice have resulted in ! 5% rise in US export prices.
(Unclassified)
Arrangements since mid-September push scheduled FY 1975 grain imports
to 5 million tons compared with the 6 million tons needed to keep the
government's grain distribution system operating at a barely acceptable level. Recent
developments:
? The EC is to provide I million tons of wheat, including 300,000 tons
as aid.
? The United States has authorized negotiations for 300,000 tons of wheat
under PL-480.
? US traders have sold 500,000 tons of American wheat.
? New Delhi has sufficient foreign exchange to purchase an additional one
million tons or more of grain 25X1
Eastern Europe: Harvest Held Up
Early last week, heavy rain caused flooding in parts of Czechoslovakia,
Hungary, and Yugoslavia - further slowing an already late harvest. Although the
rains slackened by the end of the week, more flooding is likely in the three countries
and possibly in parts of Poland too. The area forecast predicts rain two days out
of three through the end of next week. In a last-ditch effort to beat the coming
frosts, all available labor has been pushed into the harvest of corn, sugar beets,
and potatoes. 25X1
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Canton Fair Attendance Lags
businesemen of the importance of most-favored-nation status for US-China trade.
At the recently opened fall Canton Fair, prices are generally lower, more
Chinese goods are available, and negotiations are proceeding more expeditiously
than at the 1974 spring fair. As a result of economic problems at home and
disappointment with the spring fair, however, foreign businessmen have been
arriving in Canton in fewer numbers and with limited buying power. The US
contingent is about the same size as at the spring fair and again is largely made
up of import firms. Several major US firms including Burroughs, 3M, Coca-Cola,
and Kodak are exploring the long-term trade potential with China. The Chinese
have reiterated their interest in doing business with US firms, while reminding
Iron Ore Exporters to Organize
Approximately 16 nations, which account for 40% of world iron ore
production and 75% of exports, will meet in Geneva next week to form an
organization to boost prices. India, Algeria, and Venezuela - leading proponents
of the organization - want ore prices to keep abreast of recent large increases
in steel prices. They favor the use of production and export quotas. Canada,
Sweden, and Australia are undecided on joining such an organization; they take
a comparatively moderate stand on questions of pricing and access to mineral
resources. Brazil, investing heavily to expand iron ore exports, prefers a
nongovernmental organization to avoid confrontation with importing countries.
USSR: Diesel Truck Plant Postponed
The heavy diesel truck plant planned for Krasnoyarsk in 1976-80 has been
rescheduled for 1981-85
~ The postponement will slash Soviet purchases
of US automotive equipment in 1976-80 -- formerly expected to total several
hundred million dollars. The delay probably is especially disappointing to General
Motors, which has made several proposals for the Krasnoyarsk project during the
past three years.
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Publication of Interest*
India: The Foodgrain Outlook Through 1985
(ER RP 74-22, October 1974,
The Indian government has the resources to implement agricultural policies
that would promote self-sufficiency in foodgrains by 1985. In the past, however,
New Delhf has usually adopted short-term crash programs, which run out of steam
with the first good harvests. If current agricultural policies continue, by 1985 the
gap between production and demand will fall between 8 million and 14 million
tons.
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INTERNAL ECONOMI, INDICATORS
GNP'
Avera
Constant M
e An
ual
rk
t P
i
WHOLESAI.E PRICES
g
n
a
e
r
ces
Growth Hale Since
Industrial
Average Annual
Growth R
l
s
Pereentchangu
o
e
ince
Latest from Previous I Year Previous
Gantlet Quarter 1970 Earlier Guenter
United States 74111 -0
7 3
2
3
2
Latest
Merrill
Percent Change
Iran) Previous I Year 3 Months
Month 1970 Earlier Earlier
.
.
-
.
-2.0
United States
Sop 74
I 0
8 1 9
8 27
9 26
5
Japan
7411
0.0
5.7
-3,3
2.4
Japan
Sap 74
.
0.1
.
11.1
.
30
7
.
9
5
West Germany
74 11
- 0.7
3.1
1.1
- 2.9
West Germany
Sop 74
0.3
9
6
.
7
14
.
7
3
France
73 IV
1.7
-3.6
6.0
7.0
France
Aug 74
-0.7
.
12.4
.
30.3
.
-2
5
United Kingdom
741
-3.6
1.9
-4.4
-13.3
United Kingdom
Sep 74
1.5
11.5
25
7
.
19
9
Italy
731V
1.0
3.7
5.3
7.7
Italy
Jul 74
2.5
18.3
.
47.1
.
24.2
Canada
7411
0
5.7
4,9
Canada
Jul 74
2.0
11.2
24.6
12.2
Average Annual
Growth Rate Since
Average Annual
Growth R
Si
t
Percent Change
a
e
nce
Latest barn Previous 1 Year 3 Months
Percenl Change
L
f
Month Month 1970 Earlier Earlier"
United Stat
0
S
3
74
4
atest
rom Previous I Year 3 Months
Merrill Month 1970 Earlier Earlier
es
ep
.
1
1
.0
-1.0
I -0.2
Uni
ted State
s
Sep 74
1.1
6
6 12
1 13
7
Japan
Sep 74
0.2
-6.9
-13,5
Jap
an
Sep 74
1.6
.
11
7
.
23
8
.
19
1
West Germany
Aug 74
0
-3.8
-7,9
We
st Germa
ny
Sep 74
0.3
.
8
1
.
7
3
.
2
9
France
Aug 74
0
4.1
12.4
Fra
nce
Aug 74
0.8
.
8
2
,
14
5
.
13
4
United Kingdom
Aug 74
1.2
1.2
7,5
Uni
ted Kingd
om
Sep 74
1.1
.
10.4
.
17.1
.
8
7
Italy
Aug 74
-4.8
-0.6
0
Ital
y
Aug 74
2
1
10.3
20.5
.
28
9
Canada
Jul 74
-0.8
1.9
-5.6
Can
ada
Sep 74
.
0.6
8.7
10.9
.
9.7
RETAIL SALES'
Current Prices Average Annual
Growth Hale Since
Average Annual
Growth Rate Since
Percent Change
r.' :? from Previous I Year 3 Months
M
Percent Change
latest from Previous
I Year 3 M
h
onth Month 1970 Earlier Earlier"
Se
74
U
it
d St
Month Month
ont
s
1970 Earlier E
l
n
e
ates
p
-1.2
9.7
8.6
17.8
Unit
ed State
s
Sep 74
0.1
5
8
ar
ier
5
8 2
2
Japan
May 74
I 4.7
13.0
15.9
-1.7
Jap
an
Jun 74
1.6
.
17.9
.
15.7
.
17
6
West Germany
Jun 74
-1.5
7.7
2.0
1.5
Wes
t German
y
Aug 74
0.8
9
1
9
6
.
10
9
France
May 74
6.2
8.5
18.1
1.3
Fran
ce
Jun 74
1.3
.
12.7
.
10.7
.
15
6
United Kingdom
Jun 74
3.3
11.9
14.7
8.3
Unit
ed Kingd
om
Sep 74
-0.4
8.5
2.4
.
5
1
Italy
Apr 74
0.9
17.4
27
0
34
0
.
.
.
Italy
Jan 74
0.1
20.7
22.7
22
5
Canada
Aug 74
2.7
12.9
19.4
24.9
Can
ada
Aug 74
-0.7
12.3
7.3
.
0
1Year 3 Months I Month
Representative Rates Latest Date Earlier Earlier Earlier
United States
Dealer-placed finance paper
Oct 23
1 9.38
7.75
11.45
1 10.93
Japan
Call money
Oct 9
12.50
8.75
12.90
13.00
West Germany
Interbank loans(3Months)
Oct 23
9.70
14.31
9.20
9.48
France
Call money
Oct 9
13.13
11.13
14.00
13.75
United Kingdom
Sterling interbank loan (3 nest
Oct 23
11.49
.12.63
13.39
11.76
'Saaonally adjusted.
Canada
Finance paper
O
t 23
10
85
8
97
11
53
"Averego for latest 3 months compared
c
.
.
.
11.19
with average for previous 3 month
Euro-Dollars
Three-month deposits
Oct 23
i0-65
9.58
13.31
11.60
s.
30 October 1974
Office of Economic Research/CIA
Note: US data provided by US government agencies
Approved For Release 2009/09/29: CIA-RDP85T00875RO01500150047-5
 Approved For Release 2009/09/29: CIA-RDP85T00875RO01500150047-5
EXTERNAL ECONOMIC INDICATORS
EXPORTS"
f.o.b.
United States
Japan
W,st Germany
France
United Kingdom
Italy
Canada
Million US $
Sop 14 8,280
Sep 74 4,402
Sep 74 1,247
Sup 74 4,015
Sop 74 3,205
Aug 74 2,404
Aug 74 2,871
IMPORTS"
United States
Japan
West Germany
France
United Kingdom
Italy
Canada
Million US $
1974 1973
71,5751 50,428
38,867
65,851
34,313
26,698
19,028
21,021
26,706
48,743
26,657
21,148
13,533
10,329
Portent
change
41.9
50.6
35.1
28.7
26.2
40.0
28.7
Million US $ 1974
Sep 74 8,520 73,922
Sep 74 4,087 39,483
Sup 74 5,433 47,852
Sop 74 4,229 37,386
Sep 74 4,174 35,643
Aug 74 3,173 24,337
Aug 74 2,880 2C 590
TRADE BALANCE
f.o.b./f.o.b.
Japan
West Germany
France
United Kingdom
Italy
Canada
Million US $ 1974
Sep 74
Sep 74
Sep 74
Sep 74
Sep 74
Aug 74
Aug 74
1973 Chmhuu
50,491 49.4
22,737 73.6
37,050 29.2
25,006 46.0
24,341 46.4
15,140 60.7
14,884 38.3
1973
-63
3,059
11,692
1,051
-3,193
-1,607
1,445
405
1,814
-214
-879
-709
11
-626
17,999
-3,073
-8,945
-5,311
432
-2,284
-3.684
6,300
-4,125
-5.752
-3,704
-1,014
BASIC BALANCE-
Current and Lon? 7orm?Capital Transactions
latest Period Cumulative (Million US S)
United States ?
Japan
West Germany
France
United Kingdom
Italy
Canada
74 II
Sep 74
Aug 74
73 IV
74 I
74 I
74 I
Million US $ 1974 1973 Change
-2.740 -954 -2,164 1,210
160 -9,099 -8,674 -2.425
-424 4,558 5,817 -1.259
475 N.A. -2,472 NA.
84 84 -1,033 1,117
- 2,037 - 2,037 975 -3,012
-195 -195 -228 33
United States
Japan
West Germany
France
United Kingdom
Italy
Canada
I Year
End of Billion US S Jun 1970 Earlier
Sep 74 15.9 14.5 12.9
Sep 74 13.2 4.1 14.8
Sep 74 32.8 F.8 35.3
Sep 74 8.6 4.4 11.2
Sep 74 7.2 2.8 6.4
Jun 74 5.3 4.7 6.0
Sep 74 5.8 4.3 5.7
'Seasonally adjusted.
''Converted Into US dollars at current market rates of exchange.
3 Months
Earlier
14.9
13.4
34.2
8.2
6.7
6.7
6.1
EXPORT PRICES
113 S
United States
Japan
West Germany
France
United Kingdom
Italy
Canada
Percent Chnng9i
Latest front Previous
Merrill Month
Sop 74 0.7
Sep 74 0.5
Aug 74 -0.6
Jun 74 2.5
Jul 74 1.7
May74 1,9
May 74 1.4
Average Annual
Grawlh Rate Since
1 Year 3 Months
1970 Earlier Earlier
12.8 29.9 30.7
15.9 23.8 -1.3
14.8 13.4 -3.3
14.7 11.5 33.5
13.5 25.4 30.4
13.6 30.8 74.1
14.7 43.2 55.2
EXPORT PRICES
National Currency
United States
Japan
West Germany
France
United Kingdom
Italy
Canada
Ion cent Clmnga
Latest n Previous
Sop 74
Sep 74
Aug 74
Jun 74
Jul 74
May 74
May 74
IMPORT PRICES
National Currency
United States
Japan
West Germany
France
United Kingdom
Italy
Canada
0.7
-0.4
2.0
3.3
1.6
1.3
0.7
Percent Change
Latest Iron Previous
Month Month
Sep 74
Sep 74
Aug 74
Jun 74
Jul 74
May 74
May 74
-0.2
-0.5
3.1
0.0
0.4
0.3
4.7
EXCHANGE RATES Spot Rate
As of 25 Oct 74
Japan(Yenl
sche
West Germany (Marrk)
France (Franc) (Pound
United Kingdom Swing)
Italy (Loa)
Canada (Dollar)
US S
Per Unit
0.0033
0.3887
0.2127
2.3330
0.0015
1.0168
Dec 00
20.70
54.6 1
5.35
-16.40
-6.25
10.23
1970
12.0
11.0
5.8
11.1
13.6
13.9
12.2
1970
10.8
7.5
15.6
21.3
25.5
11.0
Average Annual
Gruwlh Rote Since
I Year
Earlier
29.9
39.7
22.6
28.5
33.3
40.2
37.3
3 Months
Earlier
30.7
23.8
24.8
42.5
29.6
52.3
44,7
Average Annual
Growth Rate Since
I Year
Earlier
54.3
75.6
35.3
61.5
57.1
85.5
30.4
3 Months
Earlier
22.0
4.3
23.0
37.0
17.9
45.3
62.8
18 Dec
1971
2.56
25.27
8.02
-10.46
-12.13
1.90
19 Mar
1973
-12.44
9.77
-3.49
-5.20
-15.20
1.91
18 Oct
1974
-0.30
0.05
0.57
0.02
0.33
-0.11
TRADE-WEIGHTED EXCHANGE RATES".
United States
Japan
West Germany
France
United Kingdom
Italy
Canada
Dec 00
-14.47
12.35
31.12
-16.63
-35,;7
-28.45
7.78
18 Dec
1971
-5.19
-1.16
14.11
-3.27
-21.21
-27.08
1.18
19 Mar
1973
1.40
-12.97
9.07
-5.73
-6.78
-20.13
2.82
10 act
197n
-0.U2
-0.36
-0.33
0.28
-0.18
0.06
-0.13
'''Weighting is based on each listed country's trade with 16 other industrialized
countries to reflect the competitive impact of exchange-rate variations
among the major currencies.
Approved For Release 2009/09/29: CIA-RDP85T00875RO01500150047-5