IRAQ -- LIKELY INCREASED USE OF CHEMICAL WARFARE

Document Type:

CREST [1]

Collection:

General CIA Records [2]

Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST):

CIA-RDP90M00551R001901160124-6

Release Decision:

RIPPUB

Original Classification:

Document Page Count:

Document Creation Date:

December 27, 2016

Document Release Date:

March 12, 2013

Sequence Number:

124

Case Number:

Publication Date:

April 28, 1988

Content Type:

MEMO

File:

Attachment	Size
CIA-RDP90M00551R001901160124-6.pdf [3]	83.6 KB

Body:

Declassified in Part -Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/03/12 :CIA-RDP90M005518001901160124-6 IC STAFF Routing Slip TC: ACTION COORD INFO EO/ICS D/ICS DD/ICS DD/RE EA-D/ICS SA-D/ICS SA-D/ICS-EP REO COMIREX SIGINT HUMINT MASINT IPC PBO PPO CCISCMO IHC RDCO LL SECRETARIAT ADMIN REGISTRY Y ~~,~ SUSPENSE: Date REMARKS: Declassified in Part -Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/03/12 :CIA-RDP90M005518001901160124-6 25X1 Declassified in Part -Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/03/12 :CIA-RDP90M005518001901160124-6 Next 1 Page(s) In Document Denied Q Declassified in Part -Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/03/12 :CIA-RDP90M005518001901160124-6 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/03/12 :CIA-RDP90M005518001901160124-6 c ire r i N'ashingion. D.C. ?0>0~ National Intelligence Council h1E~10RANDUh1 FOR: Director of Central Intelligence Deputy Director of Central Intelligence FROM: .Charles E. Allen National Intelligence Officer for Warning 28 April .1988 SU6JECT: -Iraq -- Likely Increased Use of Chemical Warfare 1. Attached is a warning brief on the likelihood that Iraq will escalate -its use of chemical weapons.- Evidence is growing that Iraqi use of chemical agents contributed significantly to Baghdad's recent victory at Al Faar. Iraq, moreover, is already shifting its forces to two a~~eas along the front with Iran where we believe it again will likely make heavy use of chemical wea-pons. 2. One -area of concern that must be further- assessed. The chances are small -but growing-that Iran or Iraq will initiate chemical attacks on the other's cities, and that the victimized country ~?~ill retaliate in kind. The already extensive battlefield use of chemical munitions in the Iran-Iraq war and the muted world response reduces the prospective international political costs of such attacks. This combined with the increasingly mundane "war of the cities"-- -now numbering over 200 total missile strikes -- is another step toward unrestricted attacks on population centers. The US Embassy in Baghdad clearly is not prepared to deal with this potential (emergency) threat. 3. The attached brief was coordinated with NIOs Einsel and Webster, but the responsibility for. the judgments rests ti~ith the NI0 for Warning. Attachment As Stated CL BY SIGNER DECL OADR Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/03/12 :CIA-RDP90M005518001901160124-6 Declassified in Part -Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/03/12 :CIA-RDP90M005518001901160124-6 Q Next 1 Page(s) In Document Denied Declassified in Part -Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/03/12 :CIA-RDP90M005518001901160124-6