EVALUATION OF EVIDENCE CONCERNING SOVIET ICBM FLIGHT TESTS

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP98-00979R000400530001-9
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 6
• Document Creation Date: December 23, 2016
• Document Release Date: May 14, 2013
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: September 18, 1957
• Content Type: SNIE

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SNIE 11-8-57
18 September 1957
SPECIAL
NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE ESTIMATE
NUMBER 1.1-8-57
EVALUATION OF EVIDENCE CONCERNING SOVIET
ICBM FLIGHT TESTS
Submitted. by the
DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE
The following intelligence organizations participated in the prepa-
ration of this estimate: The Central Intelligence Agency and the
intelligence organizations of the ;Departments of State, the Army,
the Navy, the Air Force, The Joint .Staff, and the- Atomic Energy
Commission.
Concurred .in by. the
INTELLIGENCE ADVISORY COMMITTEE
on 18 September 1957. Concurring were the. Special Assistant, In-
telligence, Department of State; the Assistant Chief of . Staff, Intelli-
gence; Department of the Army; the Director of Naval Intelligence;
the Assistant Chief of Staff, Intelligence, USAF; the Deputy Director
for Intelligence, The Joint" Staff; and the Atomic Energy Commission
Representative to the IAC. The Assistant Director, Federal Bureau
of Investigation, abstained, the subject being outside of his jurisdic-
tion.
TQCRE 50X1
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Copy No.
18 September 195-7
SNIE 11-8-57
EVALUATION OF EVIDENCE CONCERNING SOVIET
ICBM FLIGHT TESTS -
CONCLUSIONS
1. The `USSR has probably flight-tested two intercon-
tinental ballistic missile (ICBM) vehicles, the first on 21
August 1957 and the second on 7 September 1957.
2. We believe the USSR has the capability to perform
such tests, activities on the 50X1
new Tyura Tam-Klyuchi range 50X1
supports the Soviet statements concerning ICBM flight tests.
We have no evidence as to the range, accuracy, or character
of the vehicles fired, apart from that in the Soviet statements
and that which may be inferred from the 3,500-nautical-mile
length of the test range.
DISCUSSION
3. The USSR is known to have flight-tested at least 275
ballistic missiles to ranges of about 75, 150, 300, 650 and
950 nautical miles on the Kapustin Yar range since mid-1953,
including seven tests to a range of approximately 950 nautical
miles since 22 June 1957, and two probable multistage tests in
May 1957. The USSR has acquired considerable ballistic mis-
sile experience from this extensive test program, and probably
has flight-tested ICBM components. This base of acquired tech-
nical knowledge and the high probability that the USSR has at-
tached a very high priority to the ICBM leads us to estimate that
the USSR is now capable of initiating an ICBM flight-test program.
4. Construction activity began in mid-1955 on a new bal-
listic missile test range of about 3,500 nautical miles length
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between Tyura am and IGvuchi (see Map).
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is range was approaching 50X1
operational readiness in the spring of 1957, and we believe
that by mid-August 1957 it could have supported limited
missile flight testing.
5. Since the late spring of 1957, both Tyura Tam and
Klyuchi have been involved in
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activity.
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tivity detected on the new range was
sufficient to indi
cat
e
that missile flight tests could have occurred 50X1
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6. On 26 August 1957, the official Soviet news agency,
TASS, stated that "a super long-distance intercontinental
multistage ballistic rocket was launched a few days ago The
tests of the rocket were successful.... The rocket flew at a
very high, unprecedented altitude, covering a huge distance....
The rocket landed in the target area." On 9 September 1957,
Khrushchev told Edouard Daladier in Yalta that on 7 -September
he had personally witnessed the second successful trial of an
intercontinental missile. While the TASS announcement may
have been timed for maximum propaganda effect, past Soviet
statements of this type have generally been based on actual
performance or assured capability.
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J-___-]
TOP SECRE
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Kapustin Yar
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Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/05/14: CIA-RDP98-00979R000400530001-9
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/05/14: CIA-RDP98-00979R000400530001-9