MOZAMBIQUE EXAMPLE

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP98-00244R000300210056-0
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 1
• Document Creation Date: December 27, 2016
• Document Release Date: April 27, 2012
• Sequence Number: 56
• Publication Date: February 27, 1987
• Content Type: MISC

Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/04/27: CIA-RDP98-00244R000300210056-0
NI0/Africa
27 February 1987
Mozambique Example
On 21 April 1986, Assistant Secretary of Defense Armitage requested an
update of a 1985 SNIE on Mozambique and indicated several areas of concern,
most notably the possibility of increased Soviet/Cuban involvement. The
DDCI responded in a memo noting that a Memorandum to Holders of the
Mozambique SNIE would be undertaken which would encompass the concerns posed
by Mr. Armitage.
Memorandum to Holders of SNIE 72.3-85: Mozambique: Short-Term
Prospects was published in June 1986.
This Estimate produced as policy-relevant conclusions the following:
President Machel would probably remain in power over the next 12 months, he
was reluctant to call for Cuban troops, Soviet support would remain about
the same, US and Western influence would likely decline over the next year
as Machel increasingly turned to Soviet allies to shore up his regime, and
the Mozambique government was somewhat disappointed in the magnitude of
Western economic aid.
There was no serious attempt by policymakers to affect the conclusions,
although the AF Bureau in State was unhappy with the assessment of RENAMO as
a growing movement with wide popular support in central Mozambique.
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/04/27: CIA-RDP98-00244R000300210056-0