NIE 11-7-85: THE FUTURE OF SOVIET SCIENCES CONCEPT PAPER

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP92T00277R000200110001-2
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 8
• Document Creation Date: December 27, 2016
• Document Release Date: December 6, 2011
• Sequence Number: 1
• Content Type: MISC

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NIE 11-7-85: The Future of Soviet Sciences
Concept Paper
Science provides the understanding from which technology can be
developed, thus a knowledge of the status and future of Soviet scientific
research, their resources for conducting such research, and the
organization and policy directing this research can give an early
indication of potential technologies of the future. Soviet ideology has
stressed the importance of scientific research and much emphasis has been
placed on education and facilities for such research. One recognizes that
it is impossible from an assessment of Soviet science to project precisely
the technologies which will be developed and the weapon systems which would
be based on these technologies. An assessment of Soviet science, however,
would establish a base upon which future technology assessments and
estimates could rest. Having such a base should provide much needed
information for those who are attempting to assess emerging technology and
other technology developments in the Soviet Union.
In addition many policymakers and others recognize the need for
information about the future of Soviet science for prudent policy decisions
related to US scientific funding and research decisions. Policymakers
would include the President's Science Advisor, the Director of the National
Science Foundation and those DoD persons responsible for 6.1 and 6.2
research.
A National Intelligence Estimate on Soviet science must address the
governmental policies driving scientific research. The criteria used by
the Soviet government to establish future research directions must be
discerned, as well as which scientific disciplines are now, and will in the
future, be receiving the greatest emphasis and support. The Estimate must
also evaluate the quality and level-of-effort of current scientific
research in the Soviet Union. Such an evaluation would include an
assessment of the status of current research, resources for conducting such
research, and the effectiveness of the organizational structure which
manages this research. It is, furthermore, important to understand how the
results of basic science make their way into new Soviet technology.
The influence of foreign scientists and scientific research on the
Soviets will be addressed and will include any apparent policy decisions
related to exploitation of Western efforts. The extent to which Soviet
science and scientists are used for political/propaganda purposes will be
assessed. The importance of international meetings, scientific exchanges
and foreign scientific journals to Soviet research will be discussed. The
need for foreign scientific instrumentation in research laboratories will
also be assessed.
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The Estimate must project what the quality and extent of Soviet
scientific research is likely to be in the 1990s. Such a forecast would
depend heavily on the education being provided today to the pool of
future scientists, and would follow from an analysis of the interaction
between projected government policies, organizational research
management, and projected availability of facilities, equipment, and
personnel. The effects of demographic trends on the scientific personnel
and research will be addressed. Finally, and most importantly, the
impact on the Soviet Union and the United States in the 1990s of the
current and projected Soviet scientific effort will be assessed. A
section identifying the intelligence gaps encountered in preparing this
estimate will be included at the end.
This NIE will concentrate on a limited number of specific scientific
areas where potential applications seem likely but each area will include
as much breadth as possible. To make the estimate manageable, the number
of fields will probably be limited to no more than ten even though
ideally an NIE might include all potentially significant areas of
science. It seems reasonable that there be a follow-on estimate with
additional fields of science to complement the first one so that over a
period of time our understanding of the quality of scientific work being
done by the Soviets and a projection of this work into the future could
be build up. The importance of understanding Soviet efforts in the
Social Sciences and how these efforts might shape Soviet ideology and
approach to scientific and political activities is recognized but will
not be included in the scope of this study.
During the past decade or so, there has been only a limited amount of
work done by the Intelligence Community to assess Soviet science. At the
National-level, there has not been in recent times an NIE or similar
report on this subject. Because Soviet science has not been an area of
attention by the Intelligence Community for such a long time, the
expertise and data necessary to prepare this estimate do not reside
primarily in the Intelligence Community. The bulk of the information
needed is available only from external persons, mainly those in US
academia, national laboratories, and industry and possibly West European
academia who have over the years become intimately familiar with the work
done in their fields of science by the Soviets. In addition, these
individuals have probably had significant contacts with their counterpart
Soviet scientists and have visited their research facilities on frequent
occasions. The knowledge of such individuals built up from contact with
Soviet counterparts over a period of years should enable them to be
critically important sources of information necessary to prepare the
estimate. Any classified information available from the Intelligence
Community will be used to complete the information base.
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To obtain the external information in a highly creditable manner, it
is necessary that the scientists be interviewed by persons who are highly
respected in the US scientific community. An internationally known
physicist cleared at the Secret leve-1 will join with a senior scientist
from the Intelligence Community personally to interview in depth the
necessary number of scientists who would provide the information needed
for the estimate. A more junior person would round out the team and
would be responsible for preparation of the draft. The senior persons
would be responsible for the quality control of the information received
and the quality of the draft estimate itself.
It is planned that the estimate be classified at the Secret level and
be submitted to NFIB for approval during the second quarter of FY 1985.
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Terms of Reference
I. Key Judgments
Main findings of the Estimate with emphasis on the estimated health of
Soviet science in the 1990s and its impact on the United States.
II. Introduction and Background
Importance of scientific research to the Soviets.
Base for and impact on military technology, economic development, and
political prestige.
Soviet ideology and historical support of science.
Successes in science.
Scope of Estimate.
III. Environment for Soviet Scientific Research
This section will discuss the environment in which the Soviet scientist
works and the support which he receives. It will elaborate on those aspects
of the environment which enhance his potential and those which detract from it.
A. Policy
What is the policy toward:
directing scientific research? What criteria are used to
establish future research directions?
support of basic vs applied research?
support of theoretical vs experimental research?
demand for scientific research related to military support?
scientists who are party members vs those who aren't?
scientific contact with non-Soviet scientists?
exploitation of Western scientific research efforts?
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-- use of Soviet science and scientists for political/propaganda
purposes?
-- assimilation of non-Russian scientists.
B. Organization and Management
What are the principal features of the organization of Soviet
scientific research?
What is the general management style of Soviet scientific
research?
What are the effectiveness and efficiency of the organizations
and management of Soviet sciences?
How do basic scientific results actually get incorporated into
new technologies?
What are the political factors associated with the management of
Soviet sciences? How important is party loyalty or membership?
Now does the Soviet military influence the selection of projects
and research management?
C. Resources
What is the extent of the financial resources allocated to
science?
What is the quality and availability of:
equipment such as particle accelerators and nuclear research
reactors?
instrumentation (e.g., computers)? How does the quality and
availability of instrumentation affect research?
logistic support for scientists?
junior scientists and technicians who serve in a supporting
role?
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IV. Education of the Soviet Scientist
In order to estimate the quality of the mature Soviet scientist in
the 1990s, it is important to know the quality of education that is
being received today by the science students within the Soviet Union.
Emphasis in this section will be placed on the quality of
instrumentation and equipment used by students as well as the quality of
instruction and the scope and depth of subjects being taught in both
undergraduate and graduate education. This topic is a critical one to
address in estimating the future of Soviet sciences.
What is the quality, depth, and breadth of scientific education
at the undergraduate level?
What is the depth, breadth, and quality of scientific education
at the graduate level?
What is the quality and availability of equipment for scientific
education?
How is the quantity of scientists to be educated determined?
Is the quantity of scientists adequate to support a significant
research program?
V. The Soviet Scientist
This section will address the quality of the Soviet senior scientist
today and the approximate number of such persons. It is sometimes
asserted that senior Soviet scientists are the equivalent of the best
foreign scientists but the quality of the secondary scientists is
significantly lower than the quality of their foreign equivalents. This
point will be examined in some detail.
What is the quality and quantity of senior Soviet scientists?
How do they compare with their foreign counterparts?
What is the breadth of senior Soviet scientists?
What is the quality and quantity of secondary Soviet scientists?
How do they compare with their foreign counterparts?
What motivates the Soviet scientist?
What does it take to succeed in the Soviet scientific
establishment?
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What is the attitude of Soviet scientists toward foreign science
and scientists?
To what extent do Soviet scientists exploit foreign scientific
research?
What is the interaction of Soviet scientists with engineers who
develop technology, both civilian and military?
To what extent are Soviet scientists used as advisors to the
Soviet military establishment?
VI. Soviet Scientific Research
Soviet scientific research is a critical element and an estimate
will be made of how it compares today with equivalent research
elsewhere. Areas which are emphasized by the Soviets will be identified
and strengths and weaknesses will be discussed. To this end, several
leading scientists (primarily US) who are familiar with Soviet
scientific research will be interviewed in each of approximately ten
major scientific fields. This information will be cross-checked and
supplemented by available classified information.
What is the scope of Soviet scientific research?
What are areas of emphasis and reasons for it?
How successful is the research?
What are areas of strength and the likely impact?
What are areas of weakness and the likely impact?
What is the quality and quantity of Soviet research compared
with that done elsewhere?
To what extent does Soviet scientific research support military
developments?
VII. Future of Soviet Sciences
The real heart of this NIE is an estimate of the quality of Soviet
scientific research in the 1990s. In particular, the impact that Soviet
scientific research will have on the future military technology program
will be of special interest.
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What is the quality of scientific education likely to be in the
1990s?
What are the direction-and trend in Soviet scientific research?
What is the estimated quality and scope of:
-- Soviet scientific research in the 1990s compared with those
of today?
-- Soviet scientific research in the 1990s compared with those
expected in the West during that same period?
What is the estimated quality and availability of:
-- Soviet scientists in the 1990s compared with those of study?
-- Soviet scientists in the 1990s compared with those expected
in the West during that same period?
What impact will demographic trends in the Soviet Union have on
their future research effort?
What may be the impact on the Soviet Union and the United States
in the 1990s of the current and projected Soviet scientific research
effort?
VIII. Intelligence Gaps
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