BI-WEEKLY WARNING SUPPORT

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP91B00776R000300020013-3
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 7
• Document Creation Date: December 23, 2016
• Document Release Date: April 15, 2014
• Sequence Number: 13
• Publication Date: July 28, 1987
• Content Type: MEMO

Declassified in Part- Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2014/04/15: CIA-RDP91B00776R000300020013-3
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The Director of Central Intelligence
Washington, DC. 20505
National Intelligence Council
NIC #03116-87
28 July 1987
MEMORANDUM FOR: Director of Central Intelligence
Deputy Director of Central Intelligence
FROM: John J. Bird
National Intelligence Officer for Warning
SUBJECT: Bi-Weekly Warning Support
1. Attached is my bi-weekly warning review list, which is intended to
keep true warning issues in sight during periods when current events do not
necessarily require continual reporting. The effort is a joint one, taking
into account the views of other NIOs as well as community perceptions
developed during regular warning meetings.
2. I would be pleased to provide you with amplification of any item.
Attachment
As stated
Classificd SECRET upon removal of Attachment
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John J. Bird
Skro&NER
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EAST ASIA
NI 01W
28 July 1987
NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA: Critical Juncture
Although President Chun's acceptance of his party's package of reform
proposals has defused the immediate political crisis in South Korea,
provisions in the new draft constitution--which would restrict voter
eligibility and effectively ban Kim Dae Jung from running for the
presidency--are obstacles that could lead to an impasse in negotiations to
establish ground rules for a presidential election late this year. If a
stalemate develops, the opposition may demand that the Chun government be
replaced by what Kim Dae Jung recently described as "an interim nonpartisan
governing cabinet." Should the government reject this demand and the
opposition resort to street demonstrations, a breakdown in public order could
result in the imposition of martial law in South Korea and increased tensions
with the North.
PHILIPPINES: Tiger by the Tail
Recent statements by a New People's Army spokesman, threatening US
personnel in the Philippines, reflects a change in the communist NPA's
longstanding policy against targeting Americans and may presage future
attacks against US interests. Meanwhile, Aquino's recent signing of an
executive order enacting her highly controversial agrarian reform program--a
program whose success is imperative to stem the communist insurgency, but
whose implementation will provoke extensive discontent from wealthy and
influential elites--will generate considerable opposition from the new
Congress and further polarize right and left wing forces in the Philippines.
NEAR EAST/SOUTH ASIA
AFGHANISTAN/PAKISTAN/USSR: Mounting Soviet Pressure
New Soviet diplomatic initiatives and increasingly aggressive Soviet
bombing and airspace violations of Pakistani territory are maintaining
pressure on Zia to stop providing aid to the Afghan resistance and to reach
an accommodation with Moscow. The recent resurgence of violent opposition in
Pakistan may provide opportunities for greater Soviet leverage and might
induce Zia to seek further aid and reassurance from the US.
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EGYPT: Prospects for Instability
In the face of economic deterioration and continued activity by religious
activists, President Mubarak will be hard-pressed to maintain control during
implementation of the newest IMF program. There are already indications that
Mubarak is unwilling to take the necessary steps needed to implement the
gradual economic restructuring required to prevent a future cutoff of IMF
funds. If Mubarak fails to adequately address Egypt's growing economic
crisis, extensive protests and labor strife could erupt, undermining
Mubarak's hold on the presidency.
INDIA/CHINA: Risk of Confrontation
Chinese initiatives since mid-July to defuse the border issue and New
Delhi's conciliatory actions have helped ease tensions along the Sino-Indian
border. India's inclusion, however, of the disputed area into a new state,
and domestic focus on the situation, will make it difficult for Gandhi to
compromise during the next round of border talks scheduled for November.
Should Gandhi not compromise, the level of tension could result in new
military confrontations before the end of this year.
INDIA/PAKISTAN: Continued Uncertainty and Nuclear Weapons
Islamabad already has the
capability to produce a nuclear weapon within a few days to a few weeks. The
Pakistani nuclear program enjoys widespread domestic support, and external
pressures against the nuclear program are not likely to dissuade Pakistan
from assembling a nuclear weapon over the long term. This appears to have
triggered another Indian reassessment of its nuclear weapons options that
will further fuel tensions in the subcontinent. Nb/Warning notes that we
should be prepared for the eventuality of a weapons test in the subcontinent.
IRAN/IRAQ/GULF ARAB STATES: Full Speed Ahead
In response to the reflagging of Kuwait's tankers, Iran is preparing
contingency plans to launch terrorist attacks against US targets both within
the Persian Gulf and in other regions. In addition, Tehran may now judge the
benefits of launching an unconventional attack--using plausible
denial--against American interests as outweighing the risks of retaliation
from more direct forms of confrontation. Continued Iranian and Iraqi attacks
on neutral shipping--done deliberately or through errors in target
acquisition and discrimination--could result in an attack on an American or
Soviet combatant on escort duty.
Additionally, there
would be serious repercussions in the region should Iran carry out its plans
to occupy Kuwait's Bubiyan Island.
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IRAN/IRAQ: Internal Developments
Political stakes in the war are high. The potential for sudden collapse
of either government is out of proportion to actual or likely military
results. Military and civilian opposition to Husayn continues. Meanwhile,
in Iran, Khomeini seems to have lost some control over the power struggle
among his successors, and his death could lead to major instability within
the post-Khomeini government.
KURDS/TURKEY/IRAQ/IRAN: Kurdish Rebellion
Continued Iranian support and manipulation of the Kurds, coupled with
increasing Iranian-assisted insurgent activity in the Kirkuk oil region, are
drawing Turkey closer to the conflict in the region.
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I Tehran's continued support of the Kurds is rapidly straining
Turkish-Iranian relations.
SYRIA: Internal Struggle
Assad's poor health could leave him incapacitated at any time. In the
absence of a named successor, with new pressures in Lebanon, and with an
ever-deteriorating economic situation, the chances of a sudden change of
government remain.
TUNISIA: Increasing Instability
Bourguiba's campaign to suppress all political opposition is escalating
with crackdowns on Islamic fundamentalists. Far from ensuring smooth
succession, however, the regime's efforts are drastically increasing
discontent and ensuring chaos, uncertainty and confusion when the succession
crisis comes. The Libyan threat almost certainly, will increase in the
post-Bourguiba period, and Algeria too seems poised to influence the
succession struggle.
WESTERN EUROPE
BERLIN/USSR/GERMANY: New Initiatives?
The Soviets and East Germans are continuing to probe Allied unity on arms
negotiations and sensitive Berlin issues. Proposals for easing military
confrontation in Europe and reducing the risks of surprise attack are
designed to undercut the credibility of traditional NATO and pro-US policies
and hasten the trend toward independent European accommodations with Moscow.
During this anniversary year of Berlin, further Soviet probes designed to
challenge the status of Berlin are likely.
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GREECE/TURKEY/CYPRUS: Troubled Waters
Tensions in the Aegean continue. Implementation of Greek plans to deploy
two armored brigades in northern Greece to Thrace would be perceived by
Turkey as a provocative act. Military developments in Cyprus provide further
flashpoints for conflict. A significant increase in the number of Turkish
tanks on Cyprus and
are further irritants that could trigger
confrontation. Each side apparently believes the US can prevent war--an
attitude that may encourage recklessness and lack of restraint, which could
trigger sudden confrontation through miscalculation and escalation.
MALTA/LIBYA: Warming Relations
The Maltese government--which wrested control from the pro-Libyan
opposition party in May--may be debating accepting Libyan rewards for
honoring bilateral agreements reached formerly by the Labor Government.
US/USSR: Unfriendly Skies
Soviet fighter reactions to US reconnaissance missions have doubled since
the May landing in Moscow of a West German Cessna. Moreover, Soviet aircraft
on several occasions have deliberately violated flight safety procedures,
approaching to within one foot of a US aircraft or crossing directly in front
of a reconnaissance platform. While the Soviet reactions do not signal a
greater military threat per se, their current tactics increase the potential
for a US-Soviet air incident. Czech and East German forces also have
heightened their air defense posture, but to a lesser extent.
LATIN AMERICA
CHILE: Intransigence
Pinochet appears more determined than ever to maneuver to remain in power
beyond 1989. It appears he is now planning to carry out a major reshuffle of
the army and force his critics into early retirement. Pinochet's actions to
maintain control may precipitate a new crisis of confidence over his
leadership within the armed forces and fuel momentum for decisive change
before 1989.
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HAITI: Storm Warning
A new round of anti-government protests in Haiti erupted this weekend,
tensions remain high, and the overall situation continues to deteriorate.
Renewed street violence and acts of anti-Americanism are likely to continue
and could endanger the safety of US citizens. Namphy's private contention
that Haiti needs a return of strongman rule, attempts by extremists to derail
the elections, plus massive pressures on the government of a country whose
unemployment rate exceeds 50 percent, may imperil the presidential elections
that are scheduled for November.
JAMAICA: Hard Times Aid Manley
Political tensions continue, and economic woes are deepening. As
national elections approach, Manley's chances of winning the election are
good, provided his health holds.
MEXICO: Future Crisis?
Acute economic problems, austerity measures, and corruption will continue
to generate widespread popular and business dissatisfaction and prompt
sporadic civil disturbances, especially in the northern states.
NICARAGUA/HONDURAS: Continuation of Hostilities
Nicaragua continues to maintain a limited presence inside Honduran border
regions, thereby keeping pressure on the Honduran government to restrict
rebel activities. Honduras is likely to seek concessions and further
reassurances of support from the US, as Managua steps up activities in border
regions. Nb/Warning notes that the potential for Sandinista forces inside
Honduras to fire on US military personnel continues.
PANAMA: Political Crisis
Opposition to Noriega's rule continues, and another round of
anti-government violence could erupt at any time. If Noriega feels
threatened, he probably will employ the Defense forces more forcefully than
he did last month and may install a military junta or reinstitute a state of
emergency. Noriega has already laid the groundwork for a demagogic campaign
against an alleged US conspiracy to oust him. As the crisis evolves, there
will be an ever increasing risk that Noriega will target US interests in
Panama for subversion.
SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
ANGOLA: Prospects for Clash with South Africa
The risk of direct South African-Cuban clashes appears to be growing, as
the Angolan government continues its measured two-front offensive against
UNITA positions in southeast Angola. Should the South Africans view UNITA as
being seriously threatened and intervene in the conflict, Cuban contingency
plan5 call for retaliatory
airstrikes against South African airbases in Namibia, thus increasing the
chances for escalation.
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SOUTH AFRICA/FRONTLINE STATES: Confrontation
Conservative electoral gains and deep divisions within the Afrikanner
community have revealed increased domestic polarization that has further
undermined the influence of moderate blacks and whites who seek compromise.
In extending the emergency decree to a quasi-permanent condition and stifling
legitimate dissent the government has acknowledged its authority can be
perpetuated only by force. Externally Pretoria's increasingly coercive
measures against the Frontline States afford greater opportunities for both
the West and the East to capitalize on the Frontline States' heightened sense
of vulnerability.
SUDAN/ETHIOPIA: State of Emergency
Prime Minister Sadiq faces increasing challenges to his authority as
demonstrations in Khartoum increase, the economy worsens, and military
reversals in the South continue. These developments, plus reductions in US
aid, will encourage senior military officers to overthrow the civilian
government.
SOVIET UNION/EASTERN EUROPE
EASTERN EUROPE: Under Pressure
Dissent is increasing throughout much of Eastern Europe. To various
degrees, the present governments are under new pressures:
Growing economic and political problems, coupled with Gorbachev's
glasnost campaign, have had unsettling effects on the aging East
European leaderships. Prospective succession dilemmas, particularly
in Hungary and Czechoslovakia, are adding to the potential for
instability. In Hungary, strikes and demonstrations will grow as
the impact of recent economic austerity measures are felt.
Pressures also are great in Romania, where the continuing debt and
liquidity crises have exacerbated already abject living conditions.
As conditions worsen, the Soviets will be in a position to exert
even more pressure than before.
USSR: Massive Need for Hard Currency
The Soviets face substantial reductions in hard currency earning from oil
this year at a time of increasing need for imports for modernization. Moscow
increasingly will: rely on Western credit markets; squeeze oil supplied to
Eastern Europe to try to barter it on the international market; sell more
gold; and try to promote new exports--arms, vehicles, metals, and shipping
services--at bargain prices to gain needed hard currency.
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