TRANSCRIPT OF DDI REMARKS TO THE SECURITY AFFAIRS SUPPORT ASSOCIATION

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP99-01448R000301300004-8
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: K
• Document Page Count: 15
• Document Creation Date: December 23, 2016
• Document Release Date: May 22, 2013
• Sequence Number: 4
• Publication Date: November 13, 1984
• Content Type: MISC

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TRANSCRIPT OF
DDI REMARKS TO THE
SECURITY AFFAIRS SUPPORT ASSOCIATION
13 NOVEMBER 1984
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I'd like to thank you very much for the invitation to stand in
for John. I bring you greetings from Bill Casey, the Director of
Central Intelligence, and John McMahon. I could be secretive beyond
what John has said about why John McMahon couldn't come, but unfor-
tunately, thanks to the newspapers you know everything we are doing
and a great deal we are not. We have now reached the path where I
find that I can read highly accurate reconnaissance schedules in the
WASHINGTON POST before I see them on my desk, so there aren't many
secrets we have to protect any longer it seems. I'm very glad to be
here with you tonight. I must say that after the drive out from San
Francisco this evening, I'm kind of glad to be anywhere tonight.
Speaking to you on software is particularly inappropriate for
me, as a specialist in Russian studies and an historian. But I am
no stranger to inappropriate things. When I was on the NSC staff
during one administration that shall remain nameless, I was present
when the President of Italy attended a state dinner in his honor.
And inappropriately, the entire White House was decorated with
thousands of yellow chrysanthemums, the Italian flower of death. I
was present when inappropriately at a state dinner for German
Chancellor of Schmidt, a visit where the principal topic of
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conversation had been offset for our troops in Europe, where the
after-dinner entertainment was Joel Grey singing highlights from
Cabaret, and ending in his great finale with he song "Money, Money,
Money."
Speaking to you on software is hard for me, but I am no
stranger to hard assignments. I am one of the few still-living
Americans who have the opportunity to tell a President of the United
States before addressing several thousand people that his fly was
undone. Anyone who works for me and ever says that something is
Just too hard I tell them, "Tell me about it.
Speaking to you about software Strikes me as potentially
embarrassing. But I'm no stranger to embarrassment. I remember one
presidential trip I was on where the President had a private meeting
with Pope Paul VI at the Vatican. Henry Kissinger was determined
that the then Secretary of Defense Melvin Laird would not attend the
meeting, it seemed to Kissinger entirely that the Secretary of War_
(i) as it were should attend the meeting of the Pontiff. So he kept it
a secret, the timing of the meeting. And while the President was
meeting privately with the Pope and the rest of us were waiting for
the general audience to follow, who should come striding down one of
the corridors of the Vatican quarter but Melvin Laird smoking an
enormous cigar. Kissinger was irate that Laird had found out about
the meeting, but told him that obviously now that he was there he
could clearly attend the general audience but for God sake, Mel, put
out the cigar. So Laird tapped out his cigar and put it in his
pocket. The meeting between the Pontiff and the President soon
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broke and we went in for the general audience and there were two
rows of chairs facing a small table at which he Pope sat. Laird and
Kissinger sat on the back row, Laird on the end. We were several
minutes into the meeting and Kissinger looked over because he heard
this kind of patting going on. He didn't think it was Laird's heart
palpitating, and he looked over and there was a little wisp of smoke
coming out of Laird's pocket. He looked back and was paying
attention to the Pope and the next thing he saw and heard was this
enormous clapping and these billows of smoke coming out of Laird's
pocket. While, the rest of us couldn't see what was going on in the
back row, we heard this slapping noise going on and thought that we
were being cued to applaud. So we all broke into spontaneous
applause. Well literally, God only knows what the Pape thought
mfroviK VE
seeing the American Secretary of Defense:meeting himself and the
entire party applauding the fact. So I am no stranger to
embarrassment. So granted that my talking to you about software is
inappropriate, difficult, and potentially embarrassing to use the
saw, my job here is to speak and yours is to listen and with any
luck we'll finish it about the same time.
This past summer, the Security Affairs Support Association
became a professional organization, that is a change that allows
government employees to seek membership. This confirms the goal for
which this organization has been well known, to create an organiza-
tion in which the security affairs interests of government and
industry can find common meeting ground to discuss issues of mutual
concern. This arrangement makes good sense, because it takes
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advantage of the talents, capabilities, and initiatives in both
private and in government. We all know that neither has monopoly on
brains or talent and certainly not money.
This country is unique in the ways in which government and
private industry work together. In our work we have long depended-
on you and the companies you represent and many others to build
large technical collection systems and design and build computer
hardware and software. Beyond this, however, we also have depended
on your expertise and your facility to help us understand and fore-
cast Soviet weapons systems. More recently we are turning ever more
frequently to the private sector for assistance on a broad range of
other areas. From new technologies to international economic
problems to scores of other subjects covering more than fifty dif-
ferent things. Just this year more than 1,200 CIA analysts attended
more than 500 conferences, many of which are sponsored by your com-
panies and others in the private sector.
In the U.S. we rely on combination of patriotism and profit
motive to make our system work. And I believe the evidence suggests
that the system serves us well. New technological devices, new an-
alytical techniques that enable us to understand growing threats to
U.S. and its people are based on asynergistic nature of private
Industry and government.
I could cite several examples to support my contention that our
system of private and public developments work well. Our achieve-
ments in space certainly prove point--and our ability to
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create new and more effective defense systems also requires close
working relations between public and private sector. There is
little question that developments in computer world count as well.
As we enter era of fifth generation computers, we recognize that
maintaining our lead over our Japanese and European allies, and over
the Soviets would not be possible without close cooperation between
government and industry. It is clear that U.S. is not in this race
alone any more. The NEW YORK TIMES recently claimed we could look
back and see others running. But we're still out in front of the
pack, and we certainly ought to stay that way.
Before addressing the major subject of your conference, and of
my presumed talk on Agency software, I would like to give you
briefly a more general picture of where we've been and where we're
going. The last four years have seen remarkable growth in the
Intelligence Community's budget. Our increases have on the order of
15-20 percent a year. Now while this now leveling off, it has en-
abled us to restore many of the capabilities that we lost in 1970s.
These funds have allowed us to bring on board operations officers,
analysts, technical specialists, and support personnel.
Speaking very narrowly of my own organization the Directorate
of Intelligence, our reorganization three years ago undertaken, by
the way, by John McMahon, my predecessor, to integrate our analytic
disciplines has created a quantum jump in both and the quality of
analytic products we can deliver to policymakers. Our analysis has
taken on a new dimension because political, economic, and military
analysts--and analysts from other disciplines as well--are working
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together to create a multifaceted approach to problems. For the
last four years, we in CIA for the first time have developed and
implemented a comprehensive research program covering a staggering
number of countries and issues. We devote now about half our
resources to the Soviet Union, from its economic and political
problems to its military strength, future weapons programs and
strategic intents. The other half of our efforts and it represents
a significant change in intelligence sources and allocations is
focused on problems as diverse as terrorism, narcotics, political
Instability in key countries, international energy and resource
development, nuclear non-proliferation, the gray arms market,
technology transfer, forecasting food supplies, tracking wars and
insurgencies worldwide, monitoring Soviet compliance with arms
control agreements, scientific and technical developments worldwide,
and many more. We produced more than 800 major research assessments
last year, along with our current intelligence. More importantly,
the dedicated research effort is establishing once again the strong
base of information, data, analysis, and expertise to support the
policy process.
The production of national estimates and the speed with which
we are producing them has also increased. Estimates can sometimes
be the source of controversy, you can read about most of them in the
newspapers, but we are making an effort to provide decision makers
with the message they have to have--not necessarily the message they
want to hear. I can report to you that in recent years, thanks
primarily to the efforts of Bill Casey, a spirit of real cooperation
and mutual respect perhaps unique in the history of the Intelligence
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Community has developed among the principals of the intelligence
agencies. One reason for this has been a strong effort to insure
that all hypothesis and alternative scenarios and conclusions are
heard and reported to the policymakers. Those agencies that dis-
agree with the minority view spell out their differences in esti-
mate. And we no longer relegate those minorities views to
them but they are embodied in the full text of the estimate. We
make tough calls, calls which are sometimes painful for policy-
makers. But we are meeting our commitment to provide the best
judgment without partisan flavor or political taint.
On collection side, progress also has been made. We have
rebuilt our human intelligence capability after severe cuts of the
last administration. In fact, the rebuilding began when President
Carter realized that White House could not operate without good
sources of information. While the young people we are hiring today
lack some of language capability and area knowledge we would like,
still they are remarkably sharp and demonstrate a talent and a drive
that gives us confidence in our future capabilities. Indeed I would
say that sometimes their skills are awesome.
CIA received more than 250,000 inquiries about employment last
year Our recruiters are meeting receptive audiences on college
campuses these days for the most part. And it is interesting to
note that there appears to be renewed interest in government service
more general
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On the technical side, investments in new overhead systems are
beginning to pay off. This means a tremendous increase in the
quality and precision of intelligence information we can collect.
It also means that the volume of data will substantially increase.
This suggests that we must begin to invest in processing systems to
match our capability in collecting raw data. But beyond this' n
many ways, in my view, we are better prepared to process and use
information from existing and new overhead systems than we are
growing human source reporting and most daunting of all the tidal
wave of increasingly vital overtly-available information, particu-
larly in the scientific and technical arenas. It is then our need
to avoid being overwhelmed by this volume of information from all
sources where developments in computers, software, and other new
technologies really must help us.
As I indicated at the outset, this is a very tough audience for
me as student of Russian history to address on software, since most
of you are experienced professionals and are well versed not only in
sophisticated computer techniques, but you know a good deal about
intelligence applications as well. But like many managers in
industry and government I am learning quickly. I'd like to make a
few brief remarks about the present state of our computer activity
and where we are headed.
First, and I suppose, partly as an element of self confession,
let me amplify just for a moment on a problem I mentioned lightly
which is in my opinion actually a serious one. A serious problem
for both American industry and government and that is the computer
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illiterate senior manager. To tell the truth, and I don't think I'm
telling you any new truth, decisions on hundreds of millions of
dollars in computers and ADP equipment are made by managers who
hardly a mainframe from a Mack truck. What do we do? Too often we
turn to the computer specialist in our own organization who think
narrowly and protect turf and for whom larger scale planning, net-
working, and experimenting is an anathema. And so we waste money on
inadequate systems that can't talk to each other and meet only
today's narrow views. It seems to me that an imperative talent not
just for we in the Intelligence Community, but in industry as well
and your probably the one exception, is to bring senior managers
into the computer age and to enable them to know enough to use
effectively experts who can be giving sensible, broad-ranging,
future-oriented decisions and guidance.
Now let me turn to CIA specifically. The major problem in the
use of computers at CIA revolve around compartmentation and secu-
rity. Unlike organizations of similar size in the private sector,
we have to have a system that operates on a need-to-know basis, and
that may involve only handful of people. We must protect at the
same time against "hackers" from the outside the possibility of
"moles" from the inside. This is a major reason why we have spent
so much time and money developing our own software--we have found
that many private sector applications are not sufficiently stringent
or secure for our purposes. We also realize that, from the perspec-
tive of private industry, the costs of developing a package for
government that has no other application often is not profitable.
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The CIA is now operating five major computer systems, all using
the same general architecture, but each almost completely indepen-
dent of the other. We have system for analysts, one for operations,
one for administration, one for physical and personnel security, and
one for processing and analyzing data from technical collection.
Each of our systems use similar but distinct software applications,?
all developed in house. For example, our administrative system,
includes electronic mail. We had to develop software that would
allow access based on individual clearance and need to know. A
system that is impervious to serious efforts at penetration as well
as idle curiosity.
In contrast though, some of our needs not so unique. The
agency is moving away from reliance on huge main-frame systems to
increasing use of computer networks and even self-contained personal
computers. We envision systems where many professionals will rely
on personal computers for much manipulation of data, and where
standard forms of software--spread sheets or word processing
0 programs--can be bought over the counter. This will allow us to
shift from software designed by ADP professionals for other, if you
will forgive me, "computer freaks" to systems that are more user
friendly. Indeed, the use of personal computers may create new
security problems for us--we may have to not only guard against
analysts taking their papers home with them but also their floppy
discs.
We have high hopes that the fifth generation of computers--and
developments in Artificial Intelligence--will have great application
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at CIA. We will rely on Al in expert systems applications to enable
us to detect indicator anomalies for warning, to synthesize combina-
tions of data for analysis, to scan mail to pick out critical mes-
sages, or to pick out gaps in our knowledge. Applications of Al in
processing huge quantities of raw data without having to translate
raw data into standardized formats as we now do should help separate
the wheat from the chaff, especially in SIGINT and imagery.
Al should do some things for us that will enhance our ability
to support the policymaker. More sophisticated simulation and
modeling techniques will increase our ability to predict alternative
outcomes of future events. AT should help analysts compare dis-
similar forms of data--imagery, SIGINT, regular text--without having
to put everything a in standard format. Al might help us package
our inputs to the policy process in more usable forms to meet
consumer needs, and Al may help shorten the production cycle.
Another application might involve accessing more data on a real time
basis, especially in crisis. So, it appears that we are only
beginning to tap the potential of the next computer generation.
Frankly, progress in area of Al, in our view, is likely to be
painfully slow. Promises of quick advances with practical applica-
tions should be treated with some skepticism. We understand the
reasoning process that experts use to generate judgments, but much
Is "intuitional," especially when dealing with softer data. I can't
tell you how many contractors have come to me trying to sell me a
system that will enable me flawlessly to predict the next
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action of the Soviet leadership. Until we can understand more about
the intuitional process works, it seems to me, it will be difficult
to write "expert systems software" that can duplicate what analysts
do. Despite these problems, Al offers much promise, and we will
look to the research and industrial communities for advances in
these areas.
On the operations side, we hope to move toward a paper-free or
almost paper-free environment. This especially important in pro-
tecting overseas systems, although I might add that judging from the
newspapers it would leave a number of Iranians unemployed who are
still trying to keep together the papers that went through the
shredder in 1979. A similar system on production side may enable us
to develop a high-quality product to key consumers without going
through the printing process. And frankly, I believe this outcome
is nearer than virtually any policymaker believes at this point.
You obviously can understand how much better off we would be if we
could keep all printed material out of the hands of policymakers in
Congress.
CIA, like many private firms our size, is suffering great
software applications backlog. Just as in the private sector, we
have too few programmers and too many jobs. Our present back-log
probably amounts to perhaps as much as some 400 man-years.
Clearly we should be working together to develop more effective
and efficient programming methods. One way to solve the problem
involves more end-user programming, and this will become more
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practical as we move away from large central systems to desk-top
machinery. We will also be aided in the future by the fact that a
new generation of employees is increasingly computer-literate. New
professionals are running about 50 percent computer literacy, thanks
I suppose to video games and presence of computers in high schools
and colleges. We've even gotten our most senior officers to begin
using computers--we've all had to take some training and learn some
simple computer language so that we can communicate with each other
without having to meet in Executive Dining Room. Of course, senior
officials are no more above pranks than anyone else, I received an
0 anonymous electronic mail message a couple weeks ago on my terminal
indicating that the Director had decided that my services were no
longer required, to please be gone by 5 o'clock.
In terms of Intelligence Community, we have developed several
ways of working together, although much of our software has been
developed on an internal agency basis. The Community does try to
share ideas, information, and technology, including software where_
possible, although we do have to maintain compartmentation. Air
Force and DIA have developed modular architecture called MAXI for
sharing intelligence and processing messages for analysts.
Eventually, the Community will have some 33 facilities for such
sharing--15 of these are now on line. Shared SAFE systems between
CIA and DIA are now completing Phase I which permits shared message
retrieval capability. Phase II will take us into 1987-88 time frame.
The Intelligence Community is also sponsoring the Community
Information Retrieval System. If successful, this will bring
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together processing assets from five networks at DIA, NSA, Air
Force, CIA, and NPIC. Major difficulty involves security and
standardization problems. The Community is also working toward
developments in Artificial Intelligence. CIA's Dr. Phil Eckman
chairs the Artificial Intelligence Steering Group--with membership
from a dozen agencies and federal components. Because of costs
associated with Al, we want to avoid duplication of effort and
circulate information about the subject. CIA will sponsor its third
annual Community-wide symposium in March of 1985. This will bring
together members of Intelligence Community and private industry to
exchange ideas of mutual benefit.
ADP now consumes a substantial portion of CIA's resources and
space. We're now well along in construction of new headquarters
facility to accommodate people displaced by computers. '-'10ur ex-
perience is probably typical of organizations our size, and our aim
Is to stabilize ADP costs and perhaps even drive them down One way
to do this is to push the state of art in selected critical areas _
and not wait for it to catch up with our needs. This brings me back
to theme I raised at the beginning of my remarks. The synergistic
nature of relations between intelligence organizations and private
Industry should boost the speed--although I hope not the cost--of
solving software problems.
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