NIE 53-54: THE OUTLOOK FOR AFGHANISTAN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79R01012A004400030017-4
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 9
• Document Creation Date: December 27, 2016
• Document Release Date: January 8, 2013
• Sequence Number: 17
• Publication Date: July 28, 1954
• Content Type: MEMO

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NOW/
mss'
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
28 July 1954
P.REMORANDUtNN Fs.: Mr. Allan Evans (Om)
Colonel W. H. Hennig, USA (G-2)
Captain B. E. Wiggins USP1 (ONI)
Colonel William S. Boyd, USAF (AF'OI17-2B2 )
Captain Ray Nalpasss, USr1 (JIG)
SUBJECT s NIE 53- 54 s The Outlook for Afghanistan
1. The attached terms of reference, indicating the allo-
cations of production responsibility, were agreed on at the
mating of the IAC representatives on 28 July.
2. It is requested that contributions be received In
this office by the close of business on 27 August.
PAUL A. BOREL
Deputy Assistant Director
National, Estimates
Distribution "Bet
DOCUMENT NO.
NO CHANGE IN CLASS. i
^ DECLASSIFIED
CLASS. CHANGED TO: TS S C
NEXT REVIEW DATE:
AUTH: HR 70-2
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CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
195k
28 Juli
SMJAM: TMO e ME-0 53-54: ]' -F
AFGZMSTAI
To a tea uts in Aft se's inte l aftalzs
w:d e i relations. over t h e nezt f e w years t b s elal f
to (1) 1- i3o . t z a Intoutions with res et
t &f sal and (2) the effects on Afttanistan of Western-
spmwred c to to st he the Middle. East, 4 Sovlat re-
acetic ursro.
~I$ A. Goc. , Briefly, what the pbysieal teris-
Defe e
tics c Aft sue? have those c r ia& to
a ji. its military political significame In 1d
'fps
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OIR
B. . io ?%. tiea1e What the socialp ie3 .o , and
political a teristios of the population? ,t Is the
=twee basis of Guth ity of the gave at? Wbat
are the i .ei l olitici fogies in a stag? Mat
. the relations the tribes and the central amramnt?
C. Econwic. ief3y, wbat mre t principal economic
ebameteristles of Aftbauistan? Wbat are the nature
of its. f igg trade patters and the extent its
deVsdwca on fs i ? To amt ant is
gbanist depamLent on sib aid and iumst at for
viability?
xl Sm '" D. ML tarye To t are the strength w1d ea i .t es the
e eese & E. In eat, that is Aftbmisftn's sent and potential
012
ategic ro]a in the pwor stile bet en the
C st floc and the West?
11Q AFGHMSTAXOS RM& 33 w' A
O A.. iefly, vhet vs been the amain lines of Afgbomistan's
deval ut as an i ,e oat state? did it acqW"
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its c t bo ies, 1itle1 y and et c
c sits ? W t In& m its t ditio 1 role vLsa
a- .s psi and the ? Raw va g .a 8 s
i3t gists and fatan=tloml position n affected
slaw Word War 171 by (I) the British vith&v-aml
ften the s be tin9at smA the ere t1 of a and
it j. and (2) the a ma of the rr stt g
ti n the t Bloc and the hest t i
Af&suistaWs Ywe position iu 'w id airs?
&w bave the s O actors : .acted Aftbanistan's out-
look f i ;o cyl its political and economic
situation?
fl D Ic DEVEMEMM
IMMM
A. ; i?$ l .tica1Q . Ems' ill is the at political
system? it are the prospects for,neriaas e 1 e
to the pmeent g t bye (1) c r waimrs t
ruling, graV; (2) the tribes;- (3Y s ei its?
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B. conic a c. am the chief econa and fiscal probes
of AfgbanisiAm? 5=30 29 at all& are tine likely to be
wt? t is the probable extent of Mgbanist=Os can-
tinuing de a on' outside tie and aid? What
the 3rdbable tter of Its future f i trade? Mat
Is the outlook for eewmade l nt, Including tbe
ppospects for the FeUmad Walley poject?
t is the esent PjA tive state ist xne a
rele i with ftkistm? What is the baclWound a eswt
ate the ,l to ist issue? What is the outlw* for
a eettlemat? Wbat is the se Vrtiv
Policy In the c?ntroersy? Zw'wou2d - relti
be fly to be affected by a settlemat, of the d1spute? by
of d f8d1we to reach a solution? To what a Bnt are
interests or policies of other nations Involved in the
contw rsy? That Is the l fort (1) economic
Pak-Afgban rel tie ; and (2) cloy political ties, Includirng possible
union?
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e l m A. What a e e n t Soviet ob jecti s w i t h sp to
Dof ense
camm~ ]Y68 Aftbmistan a what policies is Ube USSR faUmrlm-
to hie the3 What a the nature a oWble ivas
of recent cis In this policy? , SS at all,, doss
it dl er k ran. iet policy tows rd. other
nw4ammmist
ast> tes in the Middle its South is $ emd e eLmvhare an
the met be ders? what extent does the l e ,~
c'. ett to do soy.. In At stern's 1vbwml affairs?
o '
Defense
C s
11e e has been the Aftban rectiou to ree et std
repyacting Af sr ? To what extent spy such steps
have resulted fz-an b ? lxdtlstiva?, Wbat Is the t
a extent AftarAst ? s v w i ,tles to met
ss s and : due nts? Wbat are r ? s tmaty
obligations tmm-d t h e W-.hW and h o w d o they effect A
vul ilttes?
C. What factors we ly to d n met polite toward
Defense
Cady wnt;s AftbanistmA In the next few y s? To.what, extent is
Soviat policy likely to be det and by Western defer
effo is in area and to vbat . extent by otber considerations?
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I V
OM
fe
Cate
D. W Wk. deve, s mi&t ie the meets to sue a e
active polio Bith 'eft to ' ,sun? 's
met eeisi to - Stet irfl st ,
TAMt M oeh Ids d the be 1y to ? Mat
t rr1ti omits, fr s the Stet Poift: Of "eV,
lmducemnts as against Zj3UMq V~ it ocaiti?
Mat f 17 -CUM Sovftt ess s a to take? Mder
what eirc t ee, If , might the UM de-oida to to
lltt iseti s s Afghanistan? Wbat w,Y the
. Uke4-zltum of i nts In the fief tech c3.
esiet , CMM=ft1 ti a$, ee e aid., EdUt a
diipl tic t? s? ishet extent in. whet ?s
WOUM Soviet i s s / sees ba. 1111191Y to'
examad Soviet i e i,a Afghwdstan? What watad be
the _ - 1e effects of s h de 1 s on . o s
fWaIgn 1ioo and d stir sittntionY
OI
DeZensa
wI I
A. Wbat ftors datermim t? s attitude @ad POSY
tozard the West?,t is the ester of Af st& s
Cents went aid
'os eti e on the West f
c reea, ee ?e arid, and technical essistan e? Nov
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 does this C e VitIi its d u1e a on the O WT ? To
w t =tent is Soviet i> u polio Wooly to
affect Mgtwalatanls c eiab amd di l tic j9olioy
tord the West? What Is the outlook. fc 1wreased
~d Este ix estwnt in 4 as ?
La Wbat 1-0 the Vmsent and prospective attitude of
Defense
Afghanistan to' FWes n-s o ed defense eff''ts
in the V Addle Mist mnd South Asia? Tot t extent U
Af s? likely to want sedation with the Turk-
Pek eat? w would it be likel to require
the West In return for Jo ? To what extent would
it W-Im Soviet disco a l affect its deeisiou
of sooiation with the Ttrek-Phtk k ?
viz 4 PMA'VIW-.,
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A. Mufta. Wbat is the ewA* osVecti extent et
X W i s l a nao in AT S? What afoot Is this
likely to have on Afghan relatims: (1) with T6kistmA
with the TS- (3) with the West?
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B. :_? Tat is the plant sh prospective uUate c
.
a stays?s relations vi1th In, i is , the
outlook ruing the Fa3xm3d inters dispute?
O C. Turkey. t is the present and IIWOOP-setive- state of
Cents Afgd&njgtan's ref i with Turkey? Is Turkish
icL ,ti In Westpria-sponsored rrgi l defenm
nts likely to affect Turkish Wluemi iie e
re1ti the Afgbanlst4a?
Do To cwt. extent do WOmolstau0s o and do
psi it to s,zsoci ,te itself with other die, sues
e tk b? ian bloc In inter ti i affairs?
84
S?
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