SOVIET - CIA

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP90-00965R000605160002-5
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: K
• Document Page Count: 1
• Document Creation Date: December 27, 2016
• Document Release Date: April 10, 2013
• Sequence Number: 2
• Publication Date: February 21, 1985
• Content Type: OPEN SOURCE

Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/10: CIA-RDP90-009658000605160002-5
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21 February 1985
S OV I ET,~C IA-.~~,
~~BY CHAEL POSNER
ITT-AK~TTT~T~r~n~~i'~~-
The CIA, apparently contradicting Defense Secretary Casspar Weinberger,
said in testimony made public today that the Soviet Union halved the rate of
growth in its defense spending starting in 1977.
"Before 1976, growth in total defense spending had averaged about four to
five per cent per year; after 1976, the rate of increase in spending dropped
appreciably, to about two per cent a year," the Central Intelligence
Agency said.
The testimony by Deputy CIA Director Robert bates was given last November
~ 21 to a congressional economic subcommittee and was made ublic to
William Proxmire. - p day by Sen.
Proxmire, a Wisconsin Democrat, commented that "it is time for Washington to
take official notice that Soviet military procuremeazt has been. stagnant for the
past seven years and to stop acting Like nothing has changed."
Gates' testimony appeared to conflict sharply with Weinberger, who has said
repeatedly that a Soviet military build-up has proceeded unabated since the
1970s.
The Pentagon and CIA have been engaged in a running battle over Soviet
defense spending rate's, and Gates said in his testimony that the intelligence
agency was confident of its analysis.
Ibis analysis went through 1983, and he said that since then the CIA had
"noted evidence of some acceleration in.the rate of increase in defense
spending,"
Gates estimated that Moscow spends 13 or 14 per cent of the country's Gross
National Product on defense, The United States spends about seven per cent of
the American GNP, which is much larger that the Soviet Union's.
The Soviet economy pulled out of a decline in 1983, Gates said, growing about
a three per cent, but growth slowed to two per cent in 1984 because of a poor
harvest.
He said the agency was forcasting that "the upswing in-GNP growth could
continue far another year or two."
Although defense spending growth slowed sharply for seven years, Gates said
the Soviet defense establishment managed to continue modernizing and improve its
military.
During that time, he said, the Soviets purchased 1,100 intercontinental
ballistic missiles, more than 700 sea-launched ballistic missiles, 300 bombers
anct 5,000 fighters.
"Despite the sca7.e of the ongoing Soviet defenae programs, the growth of
spending did slow," Gates said.
"The main source of slower growth in defense spending was a stagnation in
spending for military. procurement after 197b," he said,
Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/10: CIA-RDP90-009658000605160002-5