HANOI'S INTENTIONS DURING THE DRY SEASON

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: Library of Congress
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): LOC-HAK-558-12-20-7
• Release Decision: RIFLIM
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 2
• Document Creation Date: January 11, 2017
• Document Release Date: September 9, 2010
• Sequence Number: 20
• Publication Date: December 31, 1971
• Content Type: MEMO

No Objection to Declassification in Full 2012/08/30: LOC-HAK-558-12-20-7
IP
?Sgega-VH-C#14T-4UNS-GODIE--WORD? INFORMATIGN
December 31, 1911
MEMORANDUM FOR:
FRO1,11
SUBJECT:
ON-FILE NSC RELEASE
INSTRUCTIONS APPLY
HENRY A. KISSINGER
TOM LATIMER
Hanoi's Intentions During the Dry Season
NSA Review Completed
A pattern of troop deployment is occurring on the part of the Vietnamese
communists reminiscent of certain campaigns agaiast tb,e French in the
1950.s. Since early OctOber 1971, an estimated 54.000 North Vietnamese
troops have been pot into the infiltration pipeline. Of that total some
rt. 000 ars destined for base areas in the ceatral highlaads and another
23, COO are moving toward Cambodia or the souther* *re* of South Vietnam.
In addition, there is good evidence that the communists *re preparing to
launch major attacks in the aorthernmost provinces of South Vietnam,
probably by mid-February. Cornzimusications involviag the North Viet-
namese 301Ith Division which is still inside North Vietnam, iadicate that
it may be absut to deploy into the northernmost province of South Vietnam,
Chiang Tri. Intercepted communications also suggest that the North Viet-
namese 320th and 3243 Divisions are also about to deploy from North
Vietnam to South Vietaam. The 324B Division may be going to MR Tri-
Thien-Hue in the northern two provinces while the 32011: may be headed
further south to the B-3 Front are* in the central highlands.
We have alreedy seen the kick-off of tht North Vietnamese dry *WOOS
campaign in the Plaine des Jerrea and their effort to drive Laotiaa forces
offthe Bolovens. They may even intend to threaten the Mekong River town
of Pakse.
? In Cambodia, although communist initiated actioa has slacked
off lately, there art signs that they may initiate additional
attacks in the Tonle Tech region 200n.
Waging simultaneous campaigns in Laos, Cambodia and Vietnam is an old
Viet Minh tactic. In 1954, prior to the Dien Bien Phu battle, Vo Ngwyea
Glop seat his forces into Laos and down into Cambodia, both to draw. French
attention aad troops away from the major battlefield in Vietnams and also to
-fflECRIEV-C9NT-A4145-6013.1
No Objection to Declassification in Full 2012/08/30: LOC-HAK-558-12-20-7
No Objection to Declassification in Full 2012/08/30: LOC-HAK-558-12-20-7
5X9N417 Wrap. to-f.Migairg.nti)
strengthen the party's band in both those countris a. reviler, in 1951.
Giap stood and fought against the French at Hoe Binh while his guerrillas
slipped behind French lines and gained control over large areas of the Red
River delta. Finally, there was the 1162 battle at Kb. Sash which tied
down a large number of U.S. Marines while the Tet offensive was mounted
against urban centers throughout South Vietnam.
In short, we may be seeing the preparations for yet another multi-pranged
Vietnamese communist military &ow of strength. if that is the case, we
can expect further attacks in northern and southern Laos, more action by
the communists in Cambodia and renewed offensive activity in South Vit-
particularly in the central highlands and northern Military Region I.
The timing for suck offensives is awybody's guess. My own is that Hanoi
will try to stage as impressive display of military power prior to the Presi-
dent's trip to Peking.
? They probably do not count on toppling the Laotian or Cambodian
Governments with this upcoming offensive, let alone the Saigon
government but they may well believe that they can demonstrate
to the Chinese that they are in a "winning position" and are
justified in holding out for maximum terms for a negotiated end
to the war.
-- They may also haile that a maximum possible result of the
offensive would be to whip up American public pressure on
President Nixon to settle the war on Ifauoias terms.
SZCRET/CONTANS CODEWORp
TL:nra:12/ 31/71
No Objection to Declassification in Full 2012/08/30: LOC-HAK-558-12-20-7