SUMMARY OF CIA RESEARCH STUDY: THE ARAB WORLD IN THE 1980'S

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: Library of Congress
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): LOC-HAK-73-6-15-8
• Release Decision: RIFLIM
• Original Classification: C
• Document Page Count: 2
• Document Creation Date: January 11, 2017
• Document Release Date: November 23, 2010
• Sequence Number: 15
• Publication Date: June 21, 1975
• Content Type: MEMO

No Objection to Declassification in Full 2010/11/23: LOC-HAK-73-6-15-8
1P B. Oaky memo "- retyped as
Memo to President:21 Jun 75:wh
Ad-
INFORMATION
CONFIDENTIAL
MEMORANDUM FOR: THE PRESIDENT
FROM: HENRY A. KISSINGER
SUBJECT: Su unary of CIA Research Study:
The Arab World in the 1980's
The attached CIA memorandum (Tab A) examines the further trends in
Arab world (from Morocco and Algeria in the West to Saudi Arabia and
Iraq in the East). It concludes that the wave of extreme ideology and
emotionalism may have passed. This wave characterized the hyper-
nationalist period from the end of World War II when many Arab countries
became independent until roughly 1970 when changes of leadership in
Egypt, Syria and Iraq introduced a new look. Since then, the importance
of ideology and particular political systems has diminished with a con-
comitant rise in pragmatism and concentration on social and economic
development. One aspect of this new approach has been a sharp reduction
in intra-Arab rivalries; another has been a greater Arab willingness to
consider a realistic settlement with Israel. Libya and Iraq are notable
exceptions., while Saudi Arabia and Egypt are identified as the most
influential Arab countries for the next decade.
The CIA study expects thiefavorable trend to continue but postulates
four broad ranges of contingencies which will be critical in determining
the evolution of the Arab world over the next decade or so, any one of
which could throw the area back into another period of tumult and volatility:
A. The course of the Arab-Israeli dispute toward settlement
or another round of hostilities: the latter would tend to radicalize
Arab regimes.
B. The evolution of relations between the Arab oil producers
and their principal customers in the industralized world: a
confrontation caused by either side could lead to a boycott and
eventual military action against the producers with a radical,
anti US swing by the Arabs.
Egypt or Saudi Arabia.
C. Internal stability (or disruption) in principal Arab countries --
particularly in Egypt and Saudi Arabia -- and to a lesser degree in
others as well: the greatest threat is a radical coup in either
~F'A'/T: ~TT,Y"~7~'f/TT A T
Vi No Objection to Declassification in Full 2010/11/23: LOC-HAK-73-6-15-8
 No Objection to Declassification in Full 2010/11/23: LOC-HAK-73-6-15-8
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D. Developments in the relations of the Arab Persian Gulf
States and non-Arab Irarn a potential for power struggle eucists
among the major powers (Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Iran) while the
wealth, newness and small size of the others makes them vulnerable
to internal upheaval, all of which could impact on the politics and
oil policies of this vital area.
The overall conclusions of the study are very sound, although it to
uneven in spots, treats some problems too lightly (e. g. the strength
of Algerian and OPEC economic ideology), and others too simplistically
(e. g. Arab-Israeli scenarios). The four contingencies are clearly the
points on which our principal attention and energies should be focussed
in the years ahead, since they will be the major determinants in whether
or not vital US Interests in the Middle East will be further advanced or
badly damaged.
CONFIDENTIAL
No Objection to Declassification in Full 2010/11/23: LOC-HAK-73-6-15-8
CON "1DENTlAL