INTELLIGENCE REPORT OF GROWING DIFFICULTIES IN NORTH VIETNAM

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: Library of Congress
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): LOC-HAK-25-3-33-4
• Release Decision: RIFLIM
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 2
• Document Creation Date: January 11, 2017
• Document Release Date: August 31, 2010
• Sequence Number: 33
• Content Type: MEMO

No Objection to Declassification in Full 2010/10/04: LOC-HAK-25-3-33-4
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ThE PR.1.611)
HENRY A. i.:12)6 NGER
Inteiligence li.eport of Growing
13.ifficu1ties in North Vietnam
i? 7
Ac rding to an unevaluated intelligence report from Jur military attache in
Paris, the North Vietaarnese population is demoralized, and the Politburo is
in "disarray" and convinced that the war must end this yter. The information,
summarised below was obtained by a private French soarce ,contact with a
North Vietnamese who recently returned from tiart0i. We have been unable to
deterraine the cluatact's level 4 access to inside information within North Viet -
81.111, but he has reported tor fieverai years. :-.;orne of his reports have been
on the k en aationat side, but others have checked Init.
Popular Attitudes: The contact reported that the North Vietnamese psi1atri
is demoralised and "ready to explode". Hunaan reserves zire taxed to the
LTA Xirat1211 and are limited while rationing is more extenalve than in '968.
Plsnaphlets are circulating within Intellectual circles ,uestioning the vaiue
liberating tile South and the rggirne 16 conducting an anti-pacifist campaign.
Frietioo has developed between carty cadre and villagers who are asking
openly ',when the WI r will end. The i.adre are responding for the first time
that this war will be :over in six montha. The rat Police, however, are in
a at/Pager position than .-ver.
: The Aorth Vietnameme Politburo is reported :is being
in a state o ay" and has ost its past equilibrium. All Politbaro
members are .:.onv aced that the war must nd this rear. The Politburo
reportedly now admits that they can ionger Lorca a COMM:31i ? t government
on the South or ovekthrow Presiderit Thieu militarily. They are lu fact
prepared to tacrifics the PRG and replace it with a ,Airely ptic&I governrne
>44104914 in th Suth: The ntact reportedly told the source that ?,lortili Vietuam
miscalculated the remelts of the $7, priag offensive. The ARVN has fought well;
the population has not risen against Thieu nd attacks have Legitimized Y. b.
aid to ziotith Vietnarri.
Dikes Prooagandse: The itact 'speculated that s-3ort13. Vietnam itself night
destroy some cd it* dikes io -_,rder o irove its propagarida charges of a daiiberate
U.S. bombing campaign against the water control system.
No Objection to Declassification in Full 2010/10/04: LOC-HAK-25-3-33-4
No Objection to Declassification in Full 2010/10/04: LOC-HAK-25-3-33-4
k.cR,ELT2.
rOgire Pbiectives: North Vietliam _reportestiy has failed in its onventional
and guerilla war. The only remaining avenue le bubversion to hold and populate
the currently occupied territory. The war, again the ontact concluded, must
end this year.
Comment: The report is perhs. le the most Dessirnistic assessment yet
obtained on the situation within North Vietnam. While the ,iorth without
doubt is tufferiag greatty from ??:ur bombing and mining, we have as yet
received no corroberating information that the population is "'about to ranlotie"
or that the Politburo is deeply divided. The key factor remains the Secret
Police who are atronger than ever today and probably able to contain any
widespread dissent. U nonetheles s remains significant that the DRY Mks been
cornpeded to strengthen its security apparatus to ensure continued sacrifices
by the North 'Vietnamese population.
st,g:RT
No Objection to Declassification in Full 2010/10/04: LOC-HAKT25-3-33-4