REPORTED SOVIET GRAIN PURCHASES

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: Library of Congress
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): LOC-HAK-33-5-23-4
• Release Decision: RIPLIM
• Original Classification: C
• Document Page Count: 3
• Document Creation Date: January 11, 2017
• Document Release Date: September 16, 2010
• Sequence Number: 23
• Publication Date: May 3, 1973
• Content Type: MEMO

No Objection to Declassification in Part 2010/09/16: LOC-HAK-33-5-23-4
MEMORANDUM
CONFIDENTIAL
I(~ a 2338
NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL
INFORMATION RAO /iz
May 3, 1973
MEMORANDUM FOR MR. KISSINGER ON-FILE Agriculture RELEASE INSTRUCTIONS APPLY
FROM: Helmut Sonnenfeldt [
A. W. Marshall
SUBJECT: Reported Soviet Grain Purchases
/4FMORIICDF
Commerce Secretary Dent has sent you the brief memorandum at Tab A
informing you that the Maritime Administration has learned that Soviet
grain traders are in New York negotiating a new grain purchase.
Dent's information is in keeping with the intelligence we have summarized
for you in earlier memoranda on this subject. We know that the Soviets
have time chartered, at high rates, enough bulk carriers to allow them
to ship as much grain in the coming fiscal year as they did in the last.
There are rumors That they have contracted for fi e m1111on tom- of U. S.
corn. CIA is predicting a Soviet wheat crop of about 153 million tons,
as against a projected demand of about 165 million tons. The world wheat
and feed grain situation is such that the U. S. is virtually the only source
of supply for the Soviet shortfall. Thus, we expect that the Soviets will
enter our grain market for large purchases this year, perhaps ?as large
as those of last year. -
On the other hand, it is too early to tell with great assurance what the
Soviet wheat crop will be like, contrary to Dent's surmise. The CIA
forecast is the center of a ? 20 million ton range which represents their
67% confidence interval. Investigations into long-range weather forecasts
for the USSR currently suggests that the weather in the wheat crop regions
will probably not be as bad there this year as last.
We see no basis in Dent's
memorandum for action on your part. The only first-hand way of learning
CONFIDENTIAL
GDS - December 31, 1979
No Objection to Declassification in Part 2010/09/16: LOC-HAK-33-5-23-4
 No Objection to Declassification in Part 2010/09/16: LOC-HAK-33-5-23-4
?
CONFIDENTIAL
what the Soviets are doing in the grain market is through reports
from the grain companies. As the result of your memorandum of
April 2, Butz informed you that he is implementing a system of
voluntary reporting on export grain. sales. However, the system
is not*yet in operation, and we do not know if it will be effective.
It is presently planned to go into operation on June 1, but it will be
at least a month after that before even a crude estimate of its
effectiveness could be made.
At present., we see no need for any action on your part.
CONFIDENTIAL
No Objection to Declassification in Part 2010/09/16: LOC-HAK-33-5-23-4
 No Objection to Declassification in Part 2010/09/16: LOC-HAK-33-5-23-4
w w
THE SECRETARY OF COMMERCE
WASHINGTON, D.C. 20230
April 26, 1973
CONFIDENTIAL
MEMORANDUM. FOR Dr. Henry A. Kissinger
Assistant to the President
S IBJECT: Reported Soviet grain purchases
2338
our Maritime Administration has passed on information
to me that Soviet grain traders (Exportkhleb) are
presently in New York. negotiating a new grain purchase.
There, apparently, is a significant shortfall in Soviet
grain production and the magnitude of this sale could
be extremely high.
We have also passed this information on to Assistant
Secretary of Agriculture Brunthaver, but did want you
also to be informed.
CONFIDENTIAL
No Objection to Declassification in Part 2010/09/16: LOC-HAK-33-5-23-4 -,-