CABLE TO GENERAL BRENT SCOWCROFT FROM AMBASSADOR MARTIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: Library of Congress
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): LOC-HAK-263-3-28-6
• Release Decision: RIFLIM
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 7
• Document Creation Date: January 11, 2017
• Document Release Date: August 6, 2010
• Sequence Number: 28
• Publication Date: April 7, 1975
• Content Type: CABLE

241
No Objection to Declassification in Full 2012/06/14: LOC-HAK-263-3-28-6
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~1=C a T 714507 APR 75 VIA MARTIN CHANNEL
F'Rflr A'-- s45SAO R ~`ARTIN SAIGON 0686 IMMEDICMTE,
TO. GFNERAL BRENT SCOWCROFT >Ki
DELIVER TM EOIATEL.;Y dkdri~!'
APRIL 7, 1975
REF; ~H5r 64?~
1 o - EFORE PROI'EF_i1I WG TO THE QUESTIONS, A FEW GENERAL,., O8BERVATZONS:
MIGHT PE USEFUL. I HAVE READ ALL THE ANALYSES; THAT HAVEI BEEN MADEB
AVAILABLE TO SAIGON, THE LAST BEING THE JOINT ILIA/CIA/INR+ PAPERe ON
THE MILITARY SITUATION CONCLUDING THAT IT IS NO LONGER A QUESTION
0,10THER HAINOI ~4'ILL, *IN BUT ONLY WHEN. UNFORTUNATELY, I MAVEN A
L3'?'G vIr'MORY. + :t4 I ARRIVED IN SAIGON IN JULY 1973, IT WAS THE
0'4A gT'z1JP OPI aTOV OF THE MILITARY 1NTELLIf3E 9CEi BRIEFERD THAT (1)
Pi'U, PEN" OULU COLLAPSE ON 16 AUGUST, THE DAY AMERICAN BOMBXNG
C~) J~ 6') GEA$E, A` 3 (2) THAT THE RVNAF1 NFJW THAT THE; AMERICANS HAD
PULLED OUT ANz 1O =SORE BOMBING COULD BE DONE BY THE: AMERICANS,
WJ IL r 10 WELL T") LAST UNTIL THE FIRST OF THE YEAR!. .THE: F'ANK NOT
ONLY )!) SOT FOLD, IT TOOK KOMPONG TOM BACK WITHOUT AMERICAN AIR6,
T' VTET-+ A , THERE CAM BE `,1O QUESTION THAT 'THROUGH LAST "JUNEc Ct0? 4)
'HE`4 THE AmLH4TTON` SHORTAGE REALLY TOOK EFFECT, THE . MILITARY INITIA?`
AS x, TmE =i4=0S OF THE RVNNAF AND THE HANOI FORCES WERE `FVRTING
2. T?iERFFn!E, I SACK OFF FROr4 THAT ASSESSMENT, REMEMBERING TMAT
TIE T TELL1GFW:E COMMUNITY'S GREATEST FEAR IS THAT' IT WILI,c HAVE BEEN;.
CAJSHT SHORT I~' FAILING TO PREDICT A DISASTER, LOOKING ' AT" XT, DIS .
PAS$TO,,ATELY A,? OAJECTIVELY, THE MILITARY SITUATION DOESN'T COME'
OVER Tt'
,>E G,JI
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T BLEAKLY, THIS IS NOT TO, SAY IT 13 IT GRIM,
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) 'RY SE
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IS B!.1T AOT' THAT HOPELESS. PURE ' CO NTING ors
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OTHER
WORDS, THEORETICAL ENEMY CAPABILITY' , 3 TO A IN,
THE %'F'YA-!0 REPORT .. DOES NOT GIVE THE WHOLE PICTURE,
3, FOR EXAf1PLF, THE MARINE' DIVISION HAS NOW BEEN RECON$TT'YUTED
A NO T$ 4EAOY FOR ACTION. THE SECOND` DIVISION IS, A STRENGTH' OR'
1 , rn0 0 Lt, PE F'JLLY EFFECTIVE IN ONE MONTH, THEE 22ND DIVISION,
WITH T4E BEST STAFF AND BEST COMMANDER, IS ADDING'TO ITS 2 000,
AN ELE1E"4T OF 300 FRDM THE 3RD DIVISION, 400 FROM THE FIRSt DIVI5IfN,
ON-FILE NSC RELEASE
INSTRUCTIONS APPLY
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No Objection to Declassification in Full 2012/06/14: LOC-HAK-263-3-28-6
 No Objection to Declassification in Full 2012/06/14: LOC-HAK-263-3-28-6
******* - S E C R E T *,x****gvC0p'Y
6, O-Al FULLERS, Al`O A RF FORCE FROM SAIGON IN TWO WEEKS# AND WILL.. SE1
F JLLY RED )Y F0
FIELD ACTInN IN FOUR ;SEEKS.
4. vF,11 rc,B"!RF_ T P;; RTA'1TLY, GENERAL TOA 1 AND GENERAL' NOHI, WHO
tAS 1'~aC ~yR E 1`": TS OF IS CORPS, HAVE QUIE-14Y LIrT'ED THEs AIRBO
OXV;ISIO'a I'NT'O P!"(A'd RANG BY NIGHT, AND I THINK 4E, WILL SEE SOME;:
VERY s4AR1l FIG ITI;~~ DURING THE COURSE OF THE WEEK? WITH'TME; VIRTUA
CASCAOF OF L.EA