INFORMATION ITEMS

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: Library of Congress
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): LOC-HAK-550-3-46-7
• Release Decision: RIPLIM
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 9
• Document Creation Date: January 11, 2017
• Document Release Date: December 7, 2011
• Sequence Number: 46
• Publication Date: November 21, 1974
• Content Type: CABLE

NSA review completed
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No Objection to Declassification in Part 2013/02/19: LOC-HAK-550-3-46-7
1111 ?
HVIEMVZCZCKA0032
00 WTE19
DE WTE 7441 3251922
0 2I1925Z NOV 74
FM THE SITUATION ROOM//TOHAK65//
TO GENERAL SCOWCROFT/KYOTO/
ZEM
Tir?E?G-4i_s_a SENSITIVE CONTAINS CODEWORD WH43382
TOHAK65
NOVEMBER 21, 1974
MEMORANDUM FOR:
FROM:
SUBJECT:
THE PRESIDENT
HENRY A. KISSINGER
INFORMATION ITEMS
AtEld_COSILN__RES__OLSFORATTACKS IN 1974-75 DRY SEASON:
A NEW.COSVN RESOLUTION
CALLS FOR MAJOR "COUNTER PACIFICATION" EFFORTS DURING THE
1974-75 DRY SEASON. THE FUNDAMENTAL GOALS OF THIS PLAN
ARE TO KILL ONE-THIRD OF THE GVN'S MAIN FORCES; NEUTRALIZE
ONE-HALF OF THE PSDF; LIBERATE THE BULK OF THE COUNTRYSIDE;
OBTAIN RICE; INCREASE THE POPULATION UNDER VC CONTROL AND .
ISOLATE SAIGON. THE PLAN SAYS COSVN FORCES WILL STRIKE
HARD NEAR SAIGON UTILIZING ITS THREE DIVISIONS PLUS ONE
NEW DIVISION. ATTACKS ARE TO START IN DECEMBER.
THE RESOLUTION NOTES THAT THE GVN HAS BEEN SERIOUSLY
WEAKENED BY THE CUTS IN U.S. MILITARY AND ECONOMIC AID,
WHILE "SOCIALIST SUPPORT" FOR THE PARTY HAS BEEN "ABUNDANT."
IT FURTHER STATES THAT THE SITUATION HAS TURNED IN THE
PARTY'S FAVOR AND "WE NOW HAVE THE CAPABILITY TO LAUNCH
A CAMPAIGN AND CAUSE HEAVY SETBACKS...WHICH WILL TOPPLE
THE THIEU GOVERNMENT, FORCE THE ENEMY TO IMPLEMENT THE
PARIS AGREEMENT AND SIGN A SECOND COMMUNIQUE THAT IS
ADVANTAGEOUS TO US."
THE RESOLUTION EMPHASIZES THAT THIS CAMPAIGN IS DESIGNED
TO INFLICT A SERIOUS -- BUT NOT TOTAL -- DEFEAT ON THE
ARUN. THE STRATEGY WILL BE TO ATTACK ON A "WIDE FRONT"
DURING THE FIRST FEW DAYS AND THEN TO CONCENTRATE ON THE
"MOST VULNERABLE PLACES." THE ATTACKS AROUND SAIGON
ARE PLANNED TO BE OF SUFFICIENT MAGNITUDE TO FORCE ARVN
TO MOVE A DIVISION FROM THE DELTA TO MILITARY REGION 3.
THIS NEW RESOLUTION CLEARLY CALLS FOR A SHARP INCREASE
IN THE LEVEL OF FIGHTING IN SVN WITHIN A MONTH. WHILE
ATTACKS MAY WELL BE HEAVY, THE INTELLIGENCE COMMUNITY
BELIEVES THEY WILL NOT APPROACH THE 1972 INTENSITY. HOW-
EVER, THE CIA STATION IN SAIGON NOTES THIS RESOLUTION IS
SIMILAR TO DIRECTIVE 43 WHICH PRECEDED THE 1972 OFFENSIVE.
OUR ESTIMATE IS THEY WILL AT LEAST TRY TO TAKE SOME DISTRICT
CAPITALS AND AT LEAST ONE PROVINCE CAPITAL AROUND SAIGON.
THEIR ULTIMATE INTENTIONS SEEMS TO BE TO INFLICT MILITARY
END OF PAGE 01
No Objection to Declassification in Part 2013/02/19: LOC-HAK-550-3-46-7
No Objection to Declassification in Part 2013/02/19: LOC-HAK-550-3-46-7
DEFEATS ON ARVN WHICH ARE SERIOUS ENOUGH TO TOPPLE THIEU
AND FORCE US TO MAKE POLITICAL CONCESSIONS.
POLAND'S MILITARY LEADERS VISIT MOSCOW: MANY OF WARSAW'S
TOP MILITARY LEADERS ARRIVED IN MOSCOW EARLY THIS WEEK,
BUT THE REASON FOR THEIR VISIT IS UNCLEAR. POLISH DEFENSE
MINISTER JARUZELSKI MET WITH SOVIET DEFENSE MINISTER
GRECHKO ON MONDAY AND WITH GENERAL SECRETARY BREZHNEV
THE NEXT DAY. THE DELEGATION ALSO INCLUDES THREE OF
POLAND'S FIVE DEPUTY DEFENSE MINISTERS AND SEVEN RANKING
OFFICERS. PRESS COVERAGE OF THE VISIT HAS BEEN SCANTY.
TASS HAS REPORTED THAT "THERE WAS AN EXCHANGE OF OPINION
ON QUESTIONS PERTAINING TO THE FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THE
RELATIONS OF FRIENDSHIP AND COOPERATION BETWEEN THE SOVIET
UNION AND POLAND AND ALSO OF TOPICAL INTERNATIONAL PROBLEMS.
THE DELEGATION HAS SINCE TRAVELED TO KIEV AND TO THE CRIMEA.
LATIN AMERICA SANCTIONS AGAINST CUBA: ECUADOR'S PRESIDENT
RODRUGUEZ TOLD THE PRESS LAST WEEK THAT, IN VIEW OF THE
FAILURE OF THE QUITO MEETING OF FOREIGN MINISTERS TO VOTE
AN END TO CUBAN SANCTIONS, HIS GOVERNMENT WILL NOT RESUME
TIES WITH CUBA. HE ALSO CALLED FOR INTER-AMERICAN UNITY
TO PRESERVE THE EFFECTIVENESS OF THE INTER-AMERICAN
SYSTEM.
VENEZUELA
WILL NOT TAKE ANY ACTION Willi litUAND TO CUBA IMMEDIATELY,
BUT WILL, HOWEVER, RECOGNIZE CUBA NO LATER THAN NEXT MARCH.
APPARENTLY THE VENEZUELAN GOVERNMENT WOULD PREFER TO ACT
IN CONCERT WITH A NUMBER OF OTHER COUNTRIES IN REESTABLISH-
ING TIES.
KAISER AND JAMAICA REACH AGREEMENT: KAISER ALUMINUM AND
THE JAMAICAN GOVERNMENT HAVE REACHED SUBSTANTIAL AGREEMENT
ON ALL THE MAJOR ISSUES UNDER NEGOTIATION INCLUDING RE-
VENUES, LAND, PARTICIPATION, AND EXPANSION. ANNOUNCEMENT
OF THE GENERAL NATURE OF THE AGREEMENT AND OF EXPANSION
PLANS UNDER A JOINT VENTURE ARRANGEMENT IS BEING MADE TODAY.
FINAL DETAILS INVOLVED IN WRAPPING UP THE AGREEMENT MAY
TAKE SEVERAL WEEKS. THE AGREEMENT GIVES JAMAICA 51 PERCENT
OWNERSHIP AND RETURN OF ALL LANDS USED BY THE COMPANY, WITH-
OUT INCREASING COSTS TO THE COMPANY. IT GIVES KAISER THREE
END OF PAGE 02
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IR
YEARS OF STABILITY BY FREEZING THE LEVY RATE AT THE CURRENT
71 PERCENT OF INGOT PRICE.
THE JAMAICAN GOVERNMENT HAS INDICATED IT WOULD BE PREPARED
TO OFFER THE SAME PACKAGE DEAL TO ANY COMPANY OBTAINING
60 PERCENT OF ITS RAW MATERIALS IN JAMAICA (REYNOLDS,
REVERE AND ANACONDA). IT IS UNCLEAR AT THIS POINT WHETHER
THE OTHER COMPANIES WILL BE INTERESTED IN SUCH AN AGREEMENT
BUT IF THEY SHOULD REACH SIMILAR AGREEMENTS, THE EFFECT
WILL BE TO ISOLATE ALCOA AND ALCAN AND INCREASE PRESSURES
ON THEM TO COME TO TERMS WITH THE JAMAICAN GOVERNMENT WHEN
THEY BEGIN NEGOTIATIONS.
0980
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No Objection to Declassification in Part 2013/02/19: LOC-HAK-550-3-46-7
No Objection to Declassification in Part 2013/02/19: LOC-HAK-550-3-46-7
No Objection to Declassification in Part 2013/02/19: LOC-HAK-550-3-46-7
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No Objection to Declassification in Part 2013/02/19: LOC-HAK-550-3-46-7
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No Objection to Declassification in Part 2013/02/19: LOC-HAK-550-3-46-7
No Objection to Declassification in Part 2013/02/19: LOC-HAK-550-3-46-7
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No Objection to Declassification in Part 2013/02/19: LOC-HAK-550-3-46-7
No Objection to Declassification in Part 2013/02/19: LOC-HAK-550-3-46-7
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No Objection to Declassification in Part 2013/02/19: LOC-HAK-550-3-46-7
No Objection to Declassification in Part 2013/02/19: LOC-HAK-550-3-46-7
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No Objection to Declassification in Part 2013/02/19: LOC-HAK-550-3-46-7
No Objection to Declassification in Part 2013/02/19: LOC-HAK-550-3-46-7
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