Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST):
Body:
No Objection to Declassification in Full 2012/08/30: LOC-HAK-558-12-4-5
1
INFORMATION
January 20, 1971
ON-FILE NSC RELEASE
INSTRUCTIONS APPLY
SUBJECT: Recent NVA Tactical Deployments
in Indo - China
Some potentially significant VC/NVA unit deployments are now underway
in Indo-China. A regional summary follows.
North Laos. Within the past week or so, two regimental headquarters
of the NVA 316th Division have moved about 30 miles from the Ban Ban
area to within tan miles of Muong Soui on the Plain of Jars (map at Tab A).
This is the farthest west that these two headquarters have evern been
located on the Plain, although the battalions subordinated to them have
been in the area for many months. An additional battalion subordinate
to one of the regimental headquarters also recently moved from the
Ban Ban area onto the Plain.
Meanwhile, the NVA 312th Division continues to deploy into North .Laos
from North Vietnam. On January 15, elements of two regiments of the
312th were located at Nang Het, on the Laotian side of the North Vietnamese
border (map at Tab A). The 312th supported the NVA offensive on the
Plain of Jars Last year and then withdrew to North Vietnam. It began its
redeployment to North Laos last month.
Enemy truck rnovemeants and logistic activity along Route 7, which leads
from the North Vietnamese border to the Plain, have also increased
significantly. During the week of January 5 - 12, some 480 trucks were
sighted on Route 7, a total which has not been equaled since at least 1968.
Reports of the destruction of enemy trucks and supplies by U. S. pilots
have also shot upward.
South Vietnam. Since Late December, the NVA 7th Division has turned
its attention away from Cambodia and more toward South Vietnam. Two
sEcRErtsPsEX
JHH/WRS/MFE/sfp/1.20-71
No Objection to Declassification in Full 2012/08/30: LOC-HAK-558-12-4-5
No Objection to Declassification in Full 2012/08/30: LOC-HAK-558-12-4-5
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SECRET/SPOKE
of its three regiments, the 141st and the 165th. are now on the South
Vietnamese side of the border in northern Tay Ninh Province (map at
Tab B). The Division headquarters and a third regiment remain
Cambodia, but are close to the border.
Meanwhile, the 271st VC Regiment of the VC 9th Division has just
completed a long move of some 40 miles from the Kompong Cham area
to western Tay Ninh Province in South Vietnam (map at Tab B). Last
week, elements of this regiment apparently were responsible for the
ambush of an ARVN convoy on Route 22 in South Vietnam.
Further north in South Vietnam, the NVA 2nd Division is moving from
the Laotian panhandle to southern MR I, and some divisional elements
may now be in their traditional operating area. The NVA Znd Division
withdrew from South Vietnam into the Laotian panhandle last summer,
either to rest and refit or to defend against a possible allied ground
attack in the Tchepone area. Substantial reinforcements from North
Vietnam have since arrived in the Laotian panhandle, however, and the
2nd Division began to redeploy to South Vietnam last month.
Two regiments of the NVA 304th Division have recently moved southward
in the North Vietnamese panhandle toward the DMA:. Both of these
regiments have previously operated on the South Vietnamese side of the
DM7. They may be preparing to do so again, although it is yet too early
to say.
Cambodia. With the return of three VC/NVA regiments to Tay N
Province in South Vietnam, the number of major enemp unite in
Cambodia has declined. So far, only one NVA regiment -- the 52nd --
had arrived in Cambodia via the Laotian infiltration pipeline to offset
recent enemy deployments from Cambodia to South Vietnam. The NVA
52nd Regiment loft North Vietnam in November; it is now in northeast
Cambodia but is apparently continuing to move southward.
The enemy threat that developed around Kompong Cham early last
month has also continued to decline. In addition to the return of the
VC 271st Regiment to South Vietnam, the NVA 96th Artillery Regiment
is revving southwest toward the Mekong below Phnom 'Penh, where It
may attempt to harrass allied river convoys (map at Tab C). A third
N VA regiment threatening Kompong Chain. -- the N VA 95C -- appears
headed toward a new enemy base area in the Chup rubber plantation.
SE,CRET/SPOKE.
No Objection to Declassification in Full 2012/08/30: LOC-HAK-558-12-4-5
No Objection to Declassification in Full 2012/08/30: LOC-HAK-558-12-4-5
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SECRET/WOKE 3
Comment. It seems clear that there divisional and regimental
movements relate to the dry season plan which the enemy hopes
to implement before mid-May. It is yet early, of course, and
additional deployments could substantially modify the current
picture. At this point, however, the following developments seem
probable from recent deployments:
In North Laos, the Communists appear to be gearing up for
another offensive on the Plain of Jars. So far, they are
employing about the same level of forces as they did last
year. But their presence on the Plain is now much more
extensive than it was at the outset of last year's campaign,
and their increased threat in the Laotian panhandle will
weigh against the possibility of Laotian reinforcements
being moved from the south to the Plain.
In South Vietnam, the enemy apparently hopes to step up the
pace of military action before the end of the dry season,
-----t...
as they have in past ears. However, even with the addition
Y Y aof those regiments still in North Vietnam, the forces available
to thorn would be a good deal less this year than last. Thus
the level of activity is not likely to reach that of the 1970 dry
season, which itself was low in comparison to 1968 and 1969.
Given the recent transfer of some three regiments back to the
South Vietnamese border, it does not appear that the Communists
intend to employ their main forces exclusively in Cambodia. You
may recall the report on a recent COSVN directive which also
indicated that the Communists would attempt to balance the use of
their main force assets in Cambodia and southern South Vietnam.
SECRET/SPOKE
No Objection to Declassification in Full 2012/08/30: LOC-HAK-558-12-4-5