MIDDLE EAST SITUATION REPORT NUMBER 18 (AS OF 0630 EDT)

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: Library of Congress
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): LOC-HAK-542-18-6-4
• Release Decision: RIPLIM
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 6
• Document Creation Date: January 11, 2017
• Document Release Date: February 28, 2011
• Sequence Number: 6
• Publication Date: October 10, 1973
• Content Type: MEMO

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CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
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INTELLI GENC.E MEI(Q.RP DUM .
. . MIDDLE EAST
Situation Rnrt
THE MILITARY SITUATION
GENERAL
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1. The war enters the fifth day showing no*
promise' of a short decisive Campaign for either side.
The evening passed quietly on both fronts with Is-
raeli air attacks. starting at daybreak. No concurrent
ground action has been detected' on either front.
2. The gyptians have established, their force
.firmly on 'the eastern bank of the Suez Canal, forcing
an Israeli admi.ssjon that their- ground forces have
been unable to push them back. 'in the Golan Heights,
despite heavy fighting, the Israelis have been unable
to. push the Syr'iaris back beyond' the 1967 cease-fire
line', and they admit that they have not.broken the
Syrian army. Thu-ground is still contested, however,
and no clear-cut advantago is evident for either side.
EGYPTIAN FEONT
3. The Israeli air force .this morning renewed
its attacks On' Egytian positions on the west bank
of the Canal. and on' the bridges crossi,ncJ the Canal.
According to Israeli press accounts, there has been
little activity along the canal over the evening.
The Egyptians con't'a,nued to resupply their forces over
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the night wit:hcut opposition' front air'attack. Despite
losses taken during, the a:Lr attacks 'of the last few
days, the Egyptians evidently are able to keep their
bridges in. operation and their forces supplied.
4. 'With yesterday's admi.5sion that their ground
forces were unable- to destroy the Egyptian forces on
the eastern bank, the Israelis are counting on their
air force to hold the line. For the last: two days,
the Israelis have concexitrated their 'air attacks along
the canal -'in the face.of heavy antiaircraft fire---guns
and surface--toy-air missiles---covering the bridgeheads.
The * Israelis reportedly lost seven fighters during these'
attacks. By late yesterday some success may have been
achieved in sui-)pressing these defenses,
S. The Egypt.ans, now hold the. entire east bank
of the canal with their positions extending into the
Sinai from depths of 3 to 5 kilometers to perhaps as
much as. 20 kilomethrs. An Egyptian- incursion yesterday
reached the Mitla pass but, according to the Israelis,
was driven off by .air attacks. The: Israelis?claim to
have stabilized the Wines and to be establishing defen-
sive positions in front of .the Egyptian forces. They
claim to be building up ' their forces behind these lines
for what Israel acknowledges will be a longer war than
initially. it expected, The earlier: confidence of a
short and decisive counter-stroke has faded and ,the
Israelis are facing up to Egyptian' forces that are more
capable than they had envisaged.
6. Although.the- military situation is-still far
from settled, some Israeli newspapers are calling for
the destruction of .Syrian. and Egyptian military capes-'
b:Llity to ? prevent 'future Arab attacks, A columnist
with Haaretz,- an authorative Tel Aviv daily, however,
Points out the dilemma for Israel if it should carry
out such a policy. The columnist argues that a re--
sounding defeat' would- make It almost impossible for
Arab governments to enter into' negotiations with
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Israel. Ile said 'that a military victory could serve
as a political instrument if military aims were ac-
companied by political aims. He notes, however, that
the Israeli Goverrunent has made it-clear that it has
no political ? aims ' in this war and doncludos? that . the
main fruit of the struggle is also likely to be.a
military victory.
SYRIAN FRONT
7. As the. fighting -entered Its fifth day the
situation. on the Qolan Heights' remains stable after
A quiet night. There: are -conflicting reports from
botli Syria and Israel concerning the positions they
hold, with both sides claiming, to hold the cease-fire
line. Syrian. forces ,still ratain possession of
Qunaytirah . despite Israeli attempts to retako it.
8. Radio Jerusalem reports that early this
morning the IAF began-conducting heavy air strikes
against Syrian armore-d foircas in the leiahts.
Can the ground; fighting. this morning
seems,-to be 'limited to minor skirmishes.
10. The, Syrians have published a list of those
:.injured in yesterday's attack on ttxe Soviet cultural
mission in Damascus. No Russian names figure in the
list, and Syrian officials refuse to confirm or deny
that 30 5?oviets were: killed in-the raid. The wreckage
of the building has .not been completely cleared, .how-
, and further bodies may be discovered.. According
to press reports; the Syrian director of the mission
was badly injured and a number of Syrian students were'
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wounded. Other press.' cables from 'Damascus report that
the oil refineries at firs were saverely damaged by
lsraelt Sr astrikes and '*that throe Israeli aircraft
were lost in the attack.
JORDAN
13. The German and French Missions in Amman have
told a US F.mbasay gffioor -that they see no indications
o an in minent Jordanian sntrX into the war, but. they
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confirm that pressures are mounting. The Germans
believe arm twisting from Sadat and Arad could ..turn
the tide. The French see increasing agitation from
Palestinians in Jordan as the key factor,
SAUDI. ?A1 IA
14. According to a sensitive State bepaxtmant ? ..'
cable .from Amman, Saudi Arabia has advised Jordan that
it intends to send a brigade of 'troops to Syria through
Jordanian toiritory. Jordan in'ends to comply. and a
Saudi dologation in Amman is d,scussing with Jordanian
officials the possibility of O'ordanian? logistical sup-
port, inclu'dingg fuel for its troops. The crrnbassy com-
ments that should the Saudis enter the' war, the Jordanians
could find it difficult to
; stay' .out,
LEI3ArNOt
15. The Israeli Air Force has Increased the num-
ber of - sorties .flown aver Lebanon with the latest
flights made this morning, over the 'central and southern
part of the country. Yesterday aLebanese radar station
was reported to have boen destroyed by Israeli aircraft.
The Lebanese complained' to [JN observers 'yesterday that
an Israeli force of 40 men and six halftracks had entered
Lebanon and searched civilians., The Israelis', probably
in search of fedayeen, apparently did not find any and
withdrew after four hours. The Israelis have come under
rocket-attacks from- the estimated 5,000 Palestinian guer-
rillas in southern Lebanon,. but * thus far no Israeli 25X1
casualties have been reported. 'The fedayeen in gcn--
eral appear to be .awaiting develo
tincx thesnshlyas i:n' +110 fighting.
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an the
d isunity of the iedayeeri, they are -pessimistic
about the usefulness of their farces.-.
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17.
Soviet Andbassadox Vinogradov told Al Ahram editor Haykal ~.,
that the Soviets would deliver whatever was necessary
to resupply Egyptian forces which, Vinogradov said
wera deserving :because of the way they were fighting.
18. Three Soviet surface,combatants.?are preparing
to enter the Bosphorus-en route to the Mediterraneanj.
they should .arrive. sometime today. Two are believed
to be missile destroyers, and the third is reported to
bo a SVerdlov-class cruiser.. They probably will join
elements of the Soviet Mediterranean Squadron that are
now trailing the 'US Task Force now apcarating near Cyprus.
'
OTHER
ARA9 STATES
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19. The' mobilization .of Al'i.exian military units
is. continuing. An unknown number of troops and vehicles,
including engineer, elements, have been transferred to
Egypt by .AN-12'transports. At least 15 Algerian MIG
aircraft have been sent-to Uqba bin Nari air base (for-
merly Wheelus) in Libya. The Algerian Navy is continuing
to recall porsdnnel.and some nav.l units reportedly will
be deployed to Libyan Waters.
'
20. ' In ?Abu Dhabi the .American Embassy reports it
was warned.in a:n Arabic language: telephone call that
the chancery would?be bombed. Local employees were sent
home and police pr9tection was expected momentarily.
LATE ITEM
21 Saudi oCti.oial,s are increasingly concerned
that they may soon. have to take a? strong anti-American
stand in order ?to' :survive politically. The Saudis feel
the have no ether direction to go and also believe the
regime is vulnerable as will be the US if it resu 1
Israel'.with.arms. ? Pp ies
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