MIDDLE EAST SITUATION REPORT NUMBER 71 (AS OF 1130 EDT)

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: Library of Congress
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): LOC-HAK-543-6-11-0
• Release Decision: RIPLIM
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 17
• Document Creation Date: January 11, 2017
• Document Release Date: August 6, 2010
• Sequence Number: 11
• Publication Date: October 23, 1973
• Content Type: MEMO

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MORI/CDF
C03316266
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? CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
. : 23 October 1973
INTELLIGENCE 'MEMORANDUM;
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MIDDLE EAST
Situation Report Number 71
? (4S'of 1130 EDT)
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THE MILITARYSItUAION
GENERAL'
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1. .Fighting continued on the Egyptian'front today, -
but. apparently is limited.to the southern secter. Ace,
cording to the US Embassy in tel Aviv, Israeli forces, in
.the southern sector froM Ismailia to the city of Suez
have been ordered to continuc:fightine, but Tel Aviv
considers the cease-fire to be in effect along the rest
.of the Suez front: The heaviest fighting appears to ? :
be near Suez as Israeli forces attempt to reach the Gulf
of Suez ,and isolate:Egyptian forces on the east bank.
Extensive Israeli air activity has been observed this
Morning, virtually ,all of it South of Ismailia.
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2. Action on the Syrian front is limited to the'
Leciunt Hermon area, where Israeli forces seized the ridge-
line yesterday. Israeli fighter-bombers continue active
over the battlefield.
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State Dept review completed
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EGYPTIAN FRONT
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' 3. Israeli and Egyptian forces in the southern
'front from Ismailia to the city of Suez continue to bat-
tle on both,banks of the canal. Tel Aviv spokesmen have
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?stated the cease-fire is Conei.dered to be in effect
. along the rest of the Suez .front. Tel Aviv and Cairo
continue to exchange charges on the responsibility
for breaking the ceasu-fire.
4. Large numbers of Israeli aircraft were noted
? attacking Egyptian targets along both banks of the canal
South of Ismailia. Groups oi! .30 to 40 Israeli aircraft
have Sean, obserVed over the battle area. Egyptian re-
sponse to Israeli air attacks. continues to be limited
to SAM. and ahtiaircraft fire.: No Israeli air strikes
have been detected from Ismai3ia to Port Said./
5. Israeli, attacks toward Suez were designed to
cut off Egyptian forces on the east bank, an Israeli
spokesman said yesterday. Three of the six Egyptian
bridges-a.cross .the .canal in the soilihern sector were
seized by Israeli forces, according to the spokesman.
Tel Aviv estimates that some 200 zgyptian tanks as well
as infantry ?units south of Ismailia would thus be trapped
?.on the east bank. Details ?on. the battle near Suez are -
sparse; Israeli- pilotshave been told there are no SAMs
in the area.
? SYRIAN FRONT
7. eightipg continues in the Mount Hermon area of
the Syrian 'front. Tel Aviv claims to have recovered
positions lost at the beginning of the hostilities,
but press reports indicate there is heavy fighting under
way at the foot of thn monntain
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Press reports carry
an Israeli claim of 10 Syrian aircraft downed in an air
engagement, 'but' there are no further details. -
? 8. DamascUs claims tO have downed 11 of 60 Is -
raeli aircraft pent to .bomb civilian targets north of
Damascus today.- The intended target may have been a
supply-depot north of the city where newly delivered
equipment could, be located. At least two Israeli air-
craft were noted southwest or: Damascus early this after-
noon, indicating the Israelis: are continuing their deep -
penetration .0E Syrian air space.
ISRAELI AIR FORCE LOSSES
? 12. The chief of the Israeli air force yesterday
described the shortage of aircrews as his most critical
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problem. He stated that ?Ali. 70 crews were available
? td fly. F-4: Phantoms. He also provided a detailed ac-
' counting of /eraeli losses,.which totaled some 104
? aircraft: 32'F-4 Phantoms,:53 A-4 Skyhawks, 11 Mirages,
6 Super kystcres, and two helicopters. These losses
represent over one-fourth of the prewar Israeli inven-
tory of abouL 390 fighters and fighter-bombers. US
estimates had .placed Israeli losses at about 135 air-
craft. The air force chief :claimed that 254 Egyptian
and 205'Syrian-aircraft had been destroyed since the
Start of the war. The US egtimate of Arab losses totals
about 400 airOraft..
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. 13. He also claimed that the Israeli air force had
flown some 11;000 strike and intercept sorties thus far,
-or about 7Q0 sorties a day.
EGYPTIAN *ATTITUDES TOWARD THE CEASE-FIRE
14.
.., formed th(.....ub Interests Section In
-trecIptat.all levels have bitterly
has in-
Cairo that Egyptian
protested President
St's decision to crint-im'
reports in m nu es of the time that the cease-
fire went into effect the entire town erupted with fir-
ing from virtually ovary direction. He says he witnessed
mutiny within the Egyptian army .for about 45 minutes.
PiMless firing Was halted only after a threat by the
EgYPtian area commander to .mertar any Egyptian troops
Who. continued to .fire. ?
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15. reported today that
the majoriLy et Egyptians appear critical of .the cease-
fire agreemont. This includes most senior government ?
and army figures. Most believe that Egypt will lose
.tactieal military advantage* from the cease-fire, And
almost no one believes that the US the USSR, or anyone
else can bin Israel to give up die occupied territories.
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UNITED NATIONS
18. The Hecurity Council: is scheduled to meet at
noon. Egypt; which requested the session, is expected
.to charge Israel with.violations of the day-old cease-
. fire. .
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19.. The debate .is 1ilse1y, to become another ex-
change of invecave, each side accusing the other of
first breaking the truce. Syila--which has still not '
accepted Monday's cease-fire resolution--and other. Arab
states may broaden their criticism to thu cease-fire
provisions themselves. Arab states may demand that the
US and thu upsR accept their responsibilities as span.-
Sors of the resolution and halt Israel's alleged viola-
20. UN'diPlomats have Meanwhile been exploring
means of policing the fragile cease-fire. Although
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there is growing support for the use of American and
*Soviet truce supervisors, Chiha opposes this innova-
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tion. Peking, which has veto; powers, did not partici-
pate in Monday's vote and has criticized the resolution
as evidence of superpower collUsion to perpetuate the
no-war no-peace;situation.
21. Ua TrUce observers in the Middle East have
.been instrUeted.to take no initiative in the current
cease-fire situation. On the' Golan front--where more
than half the stations remain in place--observer teams
have continued to operate on their 1967 mandate. UN
observers on the Suez front wire withdrawn to Cairo
at Egyptian request during the first days of the war.
These teams are 'under the authority of the Security
Council and their use could become a subject of today's
discussions.. ?
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? 22. Uaving already rejected the cease-fire resolu--
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tion yesterdayl'a spokesman for the Palestine Libera-
tion Organization said today that the fedayeen will not
take part in: any peace,riegotiations, even if invited
to 'do so.,
. SAUDI ARABIA
stmerican arms deliveries to 1Srael reinforce Sauid
suspicion and add to Saudi fears that the rested and re-
equipped Israeli forces will resume the fighting after
a. brle4 cease-fire period. US Embassy contacts with
high-lovel Saudi offtcials ifidicate that although the
Saudi Arabian government Wishes to minimize the damage
that the present crisis may do, to US-Saudi relations/ it
may feel compelled to increase pressure on the US if the
cease-fire resolution fails ta ffeet an Israeli with-
drawal from at least some Arab: lands or if renewed fight-
ing results in scrious.military setbacks for the Arab'
forces.
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? .? tsimum..sur.
24. Kuwait announced thief,. morning that it still
does not aocept Security Council Resolution 242; nothing
in the new cease-fire resolution necessitates a change -
in KuwaiLi Kuwait will not object to sister'
states who take different stand S in light of their own
interests.
' 25. Oil exports to the Netherlands, which have
amounted to about 11 percent of:Kuwail. s production,
have been stopped:because of tho Notherland's "hostile"'
stand toward Arab'rights.
SUDAN
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26. The 'official Sudaneee'news agency today notes
.that Sudan's permanent representative .to the LIN has
"agreed" to the cease-fire resolution. Local reaction
in Khartoum appears largely ori of relief at the pos..
SibiliLy that the.fighting may come to an end before
Sudan becomes totally embroiled in the Middle cast-.
problem. Sudanese airborne, infantry, and armored units--
probably the equivalent of no mdre than a brigade--re-
portedly are stationed in Egypt,: but are not known to
_have become involved in the. fighting.
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IRAN
27. AlthOugh Iran has provided only token support
to the Arab case since the beginning or hostilities;
.the Shah is not about to lot theM forget the extent of
it. He and the Iranian elite privately prefer an Is-
? raeli victory, hut for political reasons have publicly
associated Iran with the Muslim 'cause. As long as things
are going well ,for the Arabs--or at least not badly--the
Shah will w.4nt,tc Continue to lay the groundwork for a
satisfactory post-war relationship.
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ETHIOPIA
? 28. Emperor Haile Selassie announced today that
Ethiopia had decided to severe rplations with Israel
'until Israel withdraws from the occupied Lerritories."
This. brings to :nine the, number of African states that
-have broken relations with Israel since the war began.
Ethiopia had been under Arab pressure for a change in
'relations fur soma time,' and the pressures bccamc more
intense after the outbreak of new hostilities. The
Emperor probably was reluctant to appear indifferent to
these demands becaUse of the possible repercussions
on Ethiopia's continuing *confrontation with Somalia
over the disputed Ogaden territory. Ethiopian officials
reportedly had come to feel-that Somalia's support for
the Arabs, however 'limited, probably ensured Arab support
for Somalia in.:the event of armed conflict. between Ethiopia
and 3omalia. In addition, Haile Selassie was reluctant to
remain isolated from the growing, Arrican consensus favor-
ing a BredX with ISraul.
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