MIDDLE EAST (SITUATION REPORT NUMBER 12 AS OF 1630 EDT)

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: Library of Congress
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): LOC-HAK-544-4-10-2
• Release Decision: RIPLIM
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 7
• Document Creation Date: January 11, 2017
• Document Release Date: January 4, 2013
• Sequence Number: 10
• Publication Date: October 8, 1973
• Content Type: MEMO

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No Objection
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State Dept.
review
completed.
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
? : 8 October 1973 .
?
.INTELLIGENCE bolkowpim
?
MIDDLE 'EAST
(Situation Report .Number 12
? 'AS of 163p EDT)
. ?
THE MILITARY SITUATION
GENERAL
Israel.,cOntinues to
.on both frontsi but there is
units haVe crossed the. Canal
of Staff Elazar acknewlAdaed
V.
MORI/CDF per
C05480382
press its counterattacks
no evidence that Israeli
in force. Israeli Chief
oubliclv late today that
2. Israeli; air activity over the Syrian front .
continues to'be heavy, and Israeli aerial operations
near the canal have increased. UN observation teams
in the Golan ileights report that the ISraeli forces
Israeli troops continue to hold out in encircled
positions along the canal.
THE SYRIAN FRONT
3. Israeli. forces continue to press the attack
against Syria. A member of the UN observation force
in the Golan Heights has confirmed that the Israelis
have retaken many of tho positions lost'there to the
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4.
25X1 ISraeli .LcIpuzub nave become increasingly
optimistic during' the day: Israeli Chief of Staff
David Elazag stated in a late afternoon'press con-. ?
ference that Israeli forces had reciched the 1967
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1615'hours Tel Aviv time (1415Z), the entire Syrian -
force had been driven, froM the Heights. Re indicated
that Israeli forces had stopped at least for the
Moment at the 1967 cease-fire line. The Israeli '-
representative:.alsoreporied that Israeli settlements
In the Heights had been declared safe and that in-.
.habitants ware returning.
? THE.EGYTTIAN FRONT
?
15. Information on ground combat along the Suez
Canal this evening was limited to public announco-.
ments from Cairo ahd Tel Aviv. Israeli Chief of
Staff Elazar stated in his press conference that the.
?Israeli'holding action over the past two days had
permitted time for mobilization and that Israeli
forces in the canal 'area'now'were on the offensive.
?
?
?
?
?:that
Ile said that Israeli forces had pushed some
Egyptian. units back to the canal, but denied
.Israel had croSsed.to.theyest bank. Elazar
Israel 'intended "to destroy completely"
forces of Egypt and Syria. .
of the
that
stated
the
.6. 'Cairo has admitted that the Israelis are
? counterattaaking, but has claimed that the attacks
are being repelled.- .According to the US Embassy in
?Amman, the qordanian Ambassador to Cairo said that
based on.events.yesterday, the Egyptian military
? believe they have won an important victory and can-
not be pushed back from the canal. The Egyptian
military?algo reportedly believe that they have
sufficient additional strength to push into the
?Sinai'and are said?to be urging Sadat to allow them
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to do just that. The Israeli counterattack today
almost certainly will temper Egyptian optimism, as
the main Israeli r'eserves move into the fray.
7: Air activity during the:day'and into
evening was
the canal.
Israeli air
this morning' and continued throughout the day and.
25X1 into the night. The scale of the attacks .does not
equal those seen on the ut are much
hf..avier than veStei-dav.
Egyptians sent at least
20 fighters to port Said in mid-afternoon to
challenge the.ISraelisi The results of the air
battle .are unclear, but the Egyptians claim to have
downed 24 Israeli fighters, while losing only ten
of their own. The :Egyptians also used SAMs against
the Israeli fighters.
that at least six Israeli aircraft attacked near
Devesoir-at the.nokth end of tho'Grnat sitter Lake
late this afternoon.
SOVIET MILITARY ACTIVITIES
8. No significant Soviet military activity
has been reported Since our lastSitrep.
IRM)
9. King Husayn has been advised that' Iraq's
action this morning to restore relations with Iran
was taken to free Iraqi troops for action against
Israel. .The Iraqis are concerned, the Xing was
told, that his Continuing neutrality is preventing
the rapid transit of Iraqi troops .to the front.
JOADAN.
* 10. The pressures on King Husayn to join the
battle .arc discussed in an.annex to tails report.
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? 11. activities
-
of the aorean Arab Army suggest nothing more than
normal defensive preparations. Panic buying of food-
stuffs has occurred, perhaps spurred by a rumor that ?
Americans are preparing to evacuate the country and
to the general rumor, noted in some other countries,
of ominous Sixth Fleet movements.
?
SYRIA
?
12. The Syrians released the tourist cruise
ship Romantica at 0630 Zulu today.' The ship report-
edly was headed for Cyprus ?
LEBANON
1,13 Because of initial Arab mi1itary successes.
the Lebanese Government reportedly feels it has its
hands full resisting domestic :pressure, particularly
from the Muslim community, to take an active part in ?
hostilities. As a result/ President FraniiYah .7! ?
believes.he cannot risk a confrontation with the
fedaYeen noW and is allowing them to moVe troops
into southern Lebanon. ?Franjiyah has placed the .
Lebanese armed forces on alert with orders to oppose
any Israeli incursion, hut most of the army is con-
centrated near BeirUt in case. Of internal disorders.
14.? Lebanen assured the. Israelis yesterday 'that !*
it was not passing radar information to the Syrians ,
or permitting the fedayeen to operate freely out of
its territory.This apparently satisfied the Israelis
who no longer seem concerned about Lebanon or the
fedayeen now that their counterattack has begun in
the'Golan Heights.
15. The Lebanese cabinet has put national
hospitals--and the American University hospital
"at the disposal of the Syrian government" and has
sent three surgical-medical teams to Damascus, accord-
ing to an official announceMent.
? MOROCCO
? .
King Hassan
25X1 L J is very.upset eves 0 e a
onesided US reaction in favor of Israel. The King
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is reportedly annoyed and concerned about the?move-
merits of the US Sixth 'Fleet and an ?alleged remark
or .W4AW0L011. thia,t?Uhe US will tdko any PV0Per
measures to obtain a cease-fire
if the Sixth FleeL JJ6-2QT.JMW
VOlVed In Middle East events the King may move
against American bases in 'Morocco. The US Embassy
in Rabat has expressed its concern ?over. the King's
current mood and the vulnerability of the VS Naval
complex. at Kenitra. .
LIBYA ?
?
? 17.. President Qadhafi'is reported to be
extremely angry about the Syrian-Egyptian offensive
and'ahnuf- elf forewarning to him, 4
Oadhafi reportedly does not
.L41.pyall forces :in the fighting, which
he believes waS initiated strictly for' Egyptian ? '
._and.Syrian.dipromatic-gains. Most Libyans are.?
puzled,by Qadhafi's reaction but have apparently
.shared Qadhafi's detached attitude. Serious Arab
reversals could chango all this but for now'Tripoli
is. quiet with no. evidence of heightened anti-American
.feeingl
. ?
,SAUDI ARABIA
?
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18: King Faysai has.pla'ced the Saudi .armed
forces .on complete alert and .appears to have taken
several token military measures in support of a
Saudi 'brigade in Jordan. However, the King appears
to be avoiding. 0.n active role-in the current crisis.
t?
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...ANNEX
,
Can Jordan Stty OutpjLtata411411.1142152.
Although the Zordanians haVe insisted all along
that ..they have:no ;intention a of ?entering the fighting,.
unless. attacked, their mood has :fluctuated from one
of elation ,after Syria and Egypt's. initial success
to one of apprehension .as the Israelis begin to
couhterattack.' Xing Husayn is now Under severe ex-
ternal pressure tq commit himself', particularly since
President Asad- has ahked him to.intorvene and other
Arab states'have'Pledged military support to Cairo
? and Damascus. .Sadat mak'also be urging him to strike
soon- . The Jordanians are continuing to play for
? time, hoping for a ceasefire, bdt Prime Minister
'Hifai has indicated that Husayn will riot be able to
? stall'for much.lodgert
. .
. . .
Rationally, Husayn knows JOrdan would face
certain defeat. and the destruction of its armed
forces if,he.attacked If the sing decides
to stay out, he would have the support .of his
civilian and military advisers, who to a man' are
probably' urging him not to fight. Prom all, available
evidence, however.; Husayn is agonizing over his '
decision. ;It ts not in his nature to sit idly by
and he is likely to find it increasingly frustrat-
ing not to bo able to do something once the Syrians
:login to crumble under the Israeli counterattack.
Be has expressed admiration for the Syrians"
fighting ability and appreciatiCn for the way Asad
,has handled jordan's neutrality.thus fart In the
end the advice:of:his advisers will probably pre-
vail '
'
but it is likely to be toiichand go for the
next day or so'. ;
?
?Xf the Israelis try to turn the Syrians' flank
by attacking throOgh northern Jordan, this, of course,
would turn the situatibn around; .1n that case,
Husayn woUld feel compelled to throw his forces
into the tray., ?
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