MIDDLE EAST SITUATION REPORT NUMBER 69 (AS OF 2230 EDT)

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: Library of Congress
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): LOC-HAK-543-6-15-6
• Release Decision: RIPLIM
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 21
• Document Creation Date: January 11, 2017
• Document Release Date: August 6, 2010
• Sequence Number: 15
• Publication Date: October 23, 1973
• Content Type: MEMO

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'CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
23 October 1973
INTELLIGENCE NEMbRANDUM
MIDDLE BAST
Situation Report Number 69
(As of 2230 EDT)
State Dept & DIA review(s)
completed
GENERAL
1. Fighting continued on both fronts after
the cease-fire deadline despite earlier signs that
the uN. resolution might be honored. ,On the Egyptian
front, Tel Aviv claims the Egyptians broke the cease-
fire in the central sector and that fighting has now
spread to other areas. Cairo asserts that the Is- '
raelis have fabricated the violation in order to re-
new their own actions. On the Syrian front, fight-
ing also continued past the deadline, but Damascus
has called oft a combined Arab offensive scheduled
for 23 October.
THE M/LITARY SITUATION
? THE EGYPTIAN FRONT
2: Fighting resumed on the Egyptian front this
evening after a short respite just before and after
the effective time for a cease-fire (1652z; 1252 EDT).
Tel Aviv claims that the Egyptians began shelling Is-
raeli positions near Ismailia about an hour after the
time for a cease-fire had passed. Fighting appears
to have spread, and late tonight Israeli military
spokesmen reported that the Egyptians are using ?all
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sorts of weapons" along most sectors of the front.
Defense Minister Dayan and Chief of Staff Blazer
reported to a late night cabinet meeting concerning
the Egyptian actions.
3. Cairo denies the Tel Aviv claim and asserts
that Egypt is observing the cease-fire. The Egyp-
tians claim that Israel is making false allegations
as an excuse to break the cease-fire.
' THE SYRIAN FRONT
5. Fighting still continues on the Syrian front
as Damascus has yet to accept the cease-fire resolu- ?
tion. The Israelis assaulted the slopes of Mount
? Hermon last evening, and claimed control of the area
by late today. Reports from the field indicate, that
heavy fighting failed to subside after the cease-fire
deadline, however, and the situation remains unclear.
Tel Aviv now claims control of 350 square miles of
? Syrian territory, and says that Arab losses on the
front as a result of today's fighting total about.
212 aircraft and 1,000 tanks.
6. During the day, the Israelis also made heavy
air and artillery strikes againet fedaveee basosite Mount Hermon in Lebanon,
Tel Aviv has been botIered by the intensi-
le terrorist activity originating from the area
since the war began, and .has been biding its time
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for a reprisal.
A combined Syrian-Jordanian-Iraqi offen-
sive was scheduled for 23 October, and King Husayn
had reiterated that his forces in Syria are under
'Syrian control and will abide by the decision of
Damascus on the cease-fire. , The advanced elements
of an additional Jordanian armored brigade are in
? Syria, along with one Iraqi armored division and
a task force from a second division. Saudi and
".Syrian units also are in the area and capable of
additional support. Early on the morning of the
23rd, the King advised the ambassador that Damascus
had just ordered a stand-down in the scheduled of-
. fensive.
SOVIET AIRLIFT
Thus Cairo continues to
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be the primary beneficiary in terms of the cargo
tonnage of the Soviet airlift.
SOVIET POLITICAL ACTIVITY
10. Italian Minister Migliuolo'called on offi-
cials at the US UN Mission today .to call attention to
the difference in the Russian and English texts of
paragraph two of the Security Council resolution.
According to the Italian, the Russian text calls for
, "practical fulfillment",of Resolution 242, while the
English calls for its "implementation." The Italian
.claimed the Russians are already saying that "prac-
tical fulfillment" means immediate Israeli with-
drawal. The US UN mission notes that Migliuolo is
an experienced Soviet watcher and adds that, if, in
fact, the Soviets are spreading this interpretation
it could put the US and Israel on the defensive.
11. MOSCOW'S first available commentary on the
cease-fire 'resolution, a .broadcast. in Arabic, stressed
that the new Security. Council action calls for imme-
diate steps toward the "practical implementation" of
Resolution 242. The broadcast.told its listeners
? that the new resolution represents the first time
? Israel has agreed to the need for implementing all
the requirements for a middle East peace, including
withdrawal from occupied territories.
12. A press report from Beirut states that So-
viet Ambassador to Syria Mekhitdinov met twice today
with Syrian Foreign Minister Xhaddam. There is no
further information on these contacts, but Mukhitdinov
probably urged the Syrians to endorse the cease-fire
resolution.
PEACE CONFERENCE SITE
13. Greece has offered to play host for peace 1
negotiations on the Middle East, according to an i
Athens press report. The island of Rhodes was the ? 1
'site of the signing of the armistice agreement be- 1
tween Israel and the Arab states in 1949.
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'T
ANNEX I
REACTIONS TO MIDDLE EAST CEASE-.FIRE
THE PRINCIPALS
ISRAEL
1, Prime Minister Meir has announced that she
will address the Xnesset on the cease-fire on 23 Oc-
tober. In the only commentary by an Israeli official
beyond the cabinet's early morning acceptance of the
cease-fire, Defense Minister Dayan stated late on
22 October that Israel had not asked for and did not
need a ceaae-fire; although Egypt and Syria can re-
habilitate their forces with the equipment being
received from the Soviet Union, they have lost the
current fighting, Dayan said, and Israel clearly
holds territory on the Suez Canal's west bank. Asked
whether this Israeli bridgehead were as effective as
a water obstacle, Dayan countered with a remark to
the effect that Israel's present concern was defeat-
ing the enemy and not outlining borders.
2 Early Israel media reaction has been cautious,
but generally unenthusiastic. Most commentators take
the line that the cease-fire interrupts Israeli forces
on the way to victory and is designed to "save the
Arabs from defeat" and "becloud Israel's military
victory." One editorialist noted that the present
plan is "less convenient" for Israel than was the
Rogers Plan, but another--after somewhat gloomily
examining rerael's choice between territorial? con-
cessions and continued reliance on military superi-
ority?notes that Israel will find it hard to reject
'a peace proposal supported by the US.
EGYPT
3. 'Public Egyptian responses to the
cease-fire indicate tnat eairo intends to bold out for.
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a total Israeli withdrawal. President Sadat's
statement accepting the stand-down noted that "the
Egyptian interpretation of the Security Council
resolution is quite clear," and in explaining the
terms of the cease-fire resolution to Foreign. Min-
ister Zayyati Presidential Adviser Hafiz Ismail re-
ferred to it as "a cease-fire and withdrawal in ac-
, cordance with Resolution 242 to the 1967 positions."
?
$. Syria continues to withhold official agree-
ment to the cease-fire, and there are indications
that President Asad is having difficulty convincing
his own Syrian leadership and/or Iraq of the merits
of the stand-down.? Asad was closeted in meetin s
through late evenin 22 Octobe
JORDAN
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6. Asad's failure to take a stand is
cating Jordan's position, The cabinet has.
its acceptance of the cease-!firer but with
that Jordan's forces in Syria remain under
ol Kin Husa n
compli-
announced
the caveat
Syrian con-
will probably
leave the status of Jordan's troops ambiguous for as
long as possible.
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111
OTHER ARAB STATES
7. Saudi Arabia's only public mention of the
Cease-fire has been a Riyadh Radio announcement of
President Sadat's d
8. President Qadhafi has made known his strong
opposition to the cease-fire via a Tripoli radio
broadcast and an interview with a French newspaper.
In both, the Libyan line is that the cease-fire is
unacceptable because it is a creation of the US, the
USSR, and Israel. Qadhafi also used the occasion
of his interview to criticize Egypt and Syria for
not -consulting him before initiating bostilitias and
for limiting their horizons to the liberation of the
occupied territories. What is essential, he said,
is "to liberate the Palestinians."
9. The umbrella_Palestine Liberation Organiza-
tion has announced its rejection of the cease-fire
and its intention to continue the fight against Is-
rael. This is a logical consequence of long-standing
fedayeen suspicions of any moves toward a settlement,
and their more recent conviction that Egypt and Syria
began the current conflict with no intention of fight-
ing for Palestinian rights.
10. the
general attitude in Algeria is one of disgust:
that Algeria has "once again" been betrayed by Egypt.
Most Algerians are reportedly bitter that the cease-
fire was concluded while Algeria was fighting against
Israel, and believe that Syria has been "ruined" and
.betrayed by Egypt.
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11. Other Arab states which have commented at
all on the cease-lire have adopted a cautious attitude,
gearing their position to those of the principal Arab
combatants, In private, Lebanese officials have wel-
comed the cease-fire and indicated that they are alert
to the possibility that the fedayeen in southern Leba-
non might attempt violations.
EUROPE
12. British Foreign Secretary Douglas-Home has
issued a brief statement appealing to both sides to
observe the cease-fire "scrupulously" and urging that
"this time, the momentum toward peace must not be
allowed to slacken." Douglas-Home expressed Britain's
willingness to provide part of any peace-keeping force
under UN auspices, so long as the force was not sub-
ject to removal by unilateral decision of any party.
The Foreign Secretary spoke of the probability of
international guarantees and demilitarized zones; he
'did not outline a position on an Israeli withdrawal,
but Britain is likely to continue its support for a
pullback to the 1967 borders.
? 13. France's position .supporting the Arab nego-
tiating stand remains unchanged, although no state-
ments have been issued since the Security Council
meeting on 21 October. Most other West European
states have withheld comment and will probably adhere'
to a generally worded statement being drafted by the
members of the EC. Although not yet published, the
statement in draft endorses the cease-fire resolu-
tion, urges its immediate acceptance, and calls for
the implementation of Resolution 242 "in all its
parts.
14. Even before the fighting broke out on 6
October, the EUropean.states were feeling increasingly
nervous about being caught in the middle of an Arab-Us
.diSpute over oil, and they will be cautioUs in balancing
their relations with the US on the one hand and their
desire for a continued flow of oil from the Arabs on
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the other. The official European policy of "even-
handedness" toward the Arabs and the Israelis has
been aided by a general decline in public sympathies
for Israel since the 1967 war.
15. There has been no official reaction from
any East European state on the cease-fire, although
continued support for the Arab position can be ex-
pected in varying degrees from all of these coun-
tries. Yugoslavia, as a leader among the nonaligned
states and a principal ally of the Arabs, will un-
doubtedly take a leading position.
CHINA
16. Peking has not reacted officially, and it
signaled by its non-participation in the Security
Council vote that it intends to maintain a very low
profile. The Chinese will, however, be alert through-
out the Middle East for any signs of antipathy toward
Moscow and Washington that might be turned to Chinese
advantage.
OTHER STATES
17. Japan has also withheld comment. Tokyo
will undoubtedly support the cease-fire, but it will
probably adopt a cautious position, finessing any
direct reference to its concern over oil supplies.
18. India has endorsed the cease-fire and re-
iterated its position that Israeli-occupied terri-
tories should be "vacated" In order to remove the
potential for further tension. New Delhi-can be ex-
pected to maintain its position in support of the
Arabs, and President Sadat expressed his recognition
and appreciation for this support by specifically
.citing in his cease-fire announcement India's state-
ments at the Security Council debate. Pakistan has
made no comment on the cease-fire, but its full sup-
port for the Arab position is expected.
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, 19. Although Turkey has not commented publicly
or privately on the cease-fire, Foreign Minister
Bayulken has presented the US Ambassador with a re- .
finement of Turkey's peace proposal which this. time
does not appear to call for a total Israeli withdrawal.
The proposal is a several-step package which enjoins
? Israel to withdraw from territories occupied in 1967
in the interests of "good neighborly relations," urges
the Arab states to negotiate secure and recognized
boundaries based "essentially" on the lines of June
1967, and calls for an international peace-keeping
force to move into the evacuated territories, "to be
stationed in areas whose occupation by one state
would endanger the security of another." Nowhere in
the proposal is the critical word "the" linked to
occupied territories. This appears to be a signifi-
cant change from earlier Turkish statements supporting
a total Israeli withdrawal, the most recent of these
being in the original version of Bayulkents proposal
which called for a complete withdrawal and allowed
?for em Illossibility,of only minor rectifications in
the 1967 borders.
Middle East Reactions
to Cease-fire Resolution
Accept Reject No Official
Reaction
Israel X
MaIrPt X
Syria
Iraq
Jordan X '
Saudi Arabia
Morocco
Algeria
Libya
Palestine Liberation
Organization
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ANNEX II
MILITARY ASSISTANCE TO EGYPT .AND SYRIA
(As of 22 October 1973)
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Since the beginning of hostilities on 6 October, the
number of Arab states that have become active participants
on the side of Syria and Egypt has increased. Military
assistance also has been provided by other states--both
Arab and non-Arab. A summary of significant military con-
tributions to Syria and Egypt by these countries follows
ARAB CONTRIBUT/ONS
IRAQ
Iraq's military contribution actually ,preceded the
outbreak of war. Last spring, Baghdad sent a squadron of
Hawker Hunter aircraft?some 16 planes--and about 160
pilots and technicians to Egypt. This squadron participated
in the war at the outset and apparently has suffered heavy
losses.
Since 6 October, Iraq reportedly has placed all its
military forces at the disposal of Syria and Egypt. At
least two Iraqi divisions--one armored and probably one
mechanized--have already been deployed to Syria, Three
Iraqi fighter squadrons, consisting of over 30 SU-7
fighter-bombers and 16 MIG-21 interceptors, have been com-
mitted to combat on the Syrian front.
LItA
Assistance by Tripoli has been limited. At least 20
Libyan Mirage aircraft that were flown by Egyptian pilots
were stationed in Egypt last spring. Since the commence-
ment of hostilities, additional Libyan Mirages reportedly
have been deployed to Egypt. 25X1
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additional Libyan aircraft and pilots have been sent, the
Libyan contribution may exceed one squadron--some 16 to 20
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JORDAN
Jordan has contributed only ground forces to the war
so far. One armored brigade, deployed in southernSyria,
already llas engaged in combat. The deployment of a: second
armored brigade to Syria reportedly as being expedited -
today becaUse of the impending cease-fire.
MOROCCO
At the beginning .of the fighting, Morocco had about
one infantry brigade consisting of 2,000 to 3,000 troops,
some 60 medium tanks, and some armored personnel carriers.
and support equipment stationed in Syria near the Golan ?
Heights. Since then( Rabat reportedly has sent an air
force contingent of more than 200 personnel, including
some pilots to Syria, and an infantry brigade of about
3,000 men to Egypt. Morocco apparently has Promised to
send to Syria additional air force personnel and an armored
brigade, as well as several antitank units to Egypt.
? SAUDI ARABIA
The Saudi military contribution to the war effort thus-
far has been limited to a single 4,000 man combat, brigade
and two Hawk surface-to-air missile batteries. Ten
Saudi helicopters also reportedly have been sent to Syria.
The Saudi brigade has already engaged in combat.
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ALGERIA
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Since the beginning of the war, Algeria has dispatched
to Egypt two fighter squadrons--one MIG-17 and one MIG-21--
along' with pilots. An SU-7 sauadron also may have been
sent to Egypt. In addition,
that Algiers may have sent MIG aircraft and some air force
personnel to Syria last spring. About 1,000 Algerian
infantry troops also have been sent to Egypt, as well as
various engineer and aircraft maintenance units.
TUNISIA
Tunisia's small contribution consists of a single
infantxy battalion and a medical team, both of which have
been sent to Egypt.
=DAN
The actual extent of Sudanese participation in the war
is unclear. Sudanese airborne, infantry,'and armored units--
'probably the equivalent of no more than a brigade--reportedly
are stationed in Egypt. In addition, Khartoum reportedly
has promised to send an armored unit to Syria, but there is
no indication that this unit has been dispatched.
KUWAIT
Prior to the war, a Kuwaiti infantry battalion of about.
500 men was stationed in Egypt. This battalion has been
reinforced by another infantry force of equal number. Eight
Kuwaiti pilots apparently also were sent to Egypt, as were
two medical teams, A Kuwaiti infantry battalion reportedly
is en route to Syria and may have already arrived there.
NORTH YEMEN
Sane promised earlier in the war to end 3,000 guerrilla
fighters to Srria# but there is no evidence they have left
for the front.
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NON-ARAB CONTRIBUTXONS'(OTHER THAN THE USSR)
EASTERN EUROPE
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Poland reportedly has given Syria about 100 meditim
tanks., and Yugoslavia has provided a. similar number to EgyPt.
The tanks provided by Belgrade mar have arrived at a Libyan
port. Both Poland. and Czechoslovakia also have provided. .
large amounts of artillery and SAM equipment to Syria.
PAKISTAN
Islamabad has provided both recoilless rifles and
ammunition to Syria. Until recently, it has managed to
avoid making any commitment, ?of combat. personnel. Recent
reports indicate, however, that Pakistani pilots and ground
support personnel were scheduled to arrive in Syria some-
time today. PaXistan also has provided medical teams .to
both Syria and Egypt.
BANGLADESH',
Bangladesh has sent medical teams to both Syria and
Egypt.
NORTH VIETNAM.
A small number of North Vietnamese air defense
specialists reportedly were sent to Syria prior to the
commencement of hostilities.
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1UPS.
ANNEX III
ECONOMIC AID TO EGYPT AND SYRIA. PROM ISLAMIC STATES
(As of 22 October 1973)
Economic aid by oil-wealthy Arab states to Egypt and
Syria during the course of current hostilities has consisted:
primarily of financial pledges, which total about $2.5 .
billion: Egypt getting some $950 million and Syria receiv-
ing possibly as much. as $1.6 billion. There is no evidence
that this financial aid has been coordinated among the Arab
countries. ?
The sums provided Egypt and Syria will shore up their
reserves, will help establish the base for hard currency ,
purchases, and be extremely important in the context Of long-
term needs, including post-war recovery. Syria has sus-
tained considerable damage, and the funds will be especially
critiOal for reconstruction. Iairo conceivably could
emerge in a better financial position than before the war,
should war damage not greatly exceed present Ievels. The
extent of Soviet repayment claims on both Syria and .Egypt
for Military deliveries cannot be determined.
, Non-financial assistance to Cairo and Damascus has
included large amounts of petroleum and fuel products, ? '
supplies of critical medical equipment, and small amounts
of sundry food items. The provision of petroleum supplies
to Syria has been a primary occupation of the other Arab
countries, as shortages of POL developed after the destruc-
tion of Syria's sole refinery at Hams. Although Egypt's
major refinery at Alexandria is still in-operation, Cairo
.depends on imports for about 60 percent of its crude oil
needs. Quantities of medical supplies and a number of medi-
cal personnel have been provided by the Arab states in
kesponse to Syrian and Egyptian requests for such assistance.
?Only modest amounts of food. aid have been given by other
Islamic,states, an indication that neither Egypt nor Syria
has felt a severe strain on its food supplies.
Details regarding financial and non-financial economic
"-asaidtance are contained in the tables that follow-
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