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• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP86T00587R000400560005-0
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: C
• Document Page Count: 22
• Document Creation Date: January 12, 2017
• Document Release Date: May 12, 2011
• Sequence Number: 5
• Publication Date: December 1, 1985
• Content Type: REPORT

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India's Population Growth:
An Important Constraint
on Gandhi's Domestic Agenda
NESA 85-10222
December 1985
cop, 4 6 5
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Directorate of Confidential
Intelligence
India's Population Growth:
An Important Constraint
on Gandhi's Domestic Agenda
This paper was prepared by Office
of Near Eastern and South Asian Analysis.
Comments and queries are welcome and may be
directed to the Chief, South Asia Division, NESA,
Confidential
NESA 85-10222
December 1985
25X1
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India's Population Growth:
An Important Constraint
on Gandhi's Domestic Agenda
Key Judgments India's population is growing at a pace that is likely to make it the largest
Information available of any country in the world within the next 35 years. Some 165 million peo-
as of i November 1985 ple will be added between 1985 and 1995. Continued rapid population
was used in this report.
growth will be an important constraint on Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi's
efforts to accelerate economic modernization, improve living standards,
and maintain political stability:
? Increases in the number of youth will hamper Gandhi's drives to achieve
universal primary school enrollment and reduce the number of secondary
and university students taking liberal arts degrees.
? Gandhi's economic liberalization initiatives risk alienating growing num-
bers of unemployed youth-particularly those with some education-who
may see these initiatives as favoring the middle class and elites.
? Unmet expectations for housing and jobs and the competition between
ethnic and religious groups in the cities will be aggravated by accelerated
population growth. Opposition politicians will continue to exploit this
volatile mixture.
? Migration that upsets the delicate demographic balance between ethnic
and communal groups will increase instability-particularly in Punjab,
Assam, and Tamil Nadu.
Prime Minister Gandhi probably will launch a revitalized family planning
drive to reduce the country's 2-percent population growth rate. His stress
on voluntarism and the importance of gains in education, employment, and
income to reduce the birth rate suggest that he has learned political lessons
from the ill-fated sterilization campaigns led by his brother in the late
1970s.
Gandhi probably will ask for additional financial support from US and
multilateral institutions to accelerate economic growth and expand his
program to slow population growth.
Confidential
NESA 85-10222
December 1985
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Educational Gaps Closing Slowly 8
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Figure 1
India's Twenty Most Populous Cities, 1981
^'r Andhra
ondicherry
Pradesh
Arabian
Sea
atakaa
Bangalore@ 1, ..
,,Tamil
Nadu
KeYala ,,}
Madurai
Hlrnachal
Purtjab);~ l
(t
J
T ,`'Haryana
NEW Delhi
DELHI.
\ Delhi
LM Uttar
-( Pradesh
Rajasthan
China
Kanpur
t3 ti S ~.. )
India
t- --.J - o
?-' Dadra and Nagar Haveli Nagpur~ C Orissa
ANDAMAN
ISLANDS
Populated places
p
5,000,000 and over
O
2,000,000 to 5,000,000
o
1,000,000 to 2,000,000
?
Under 1,000.000
State or union territory
boundary
0 400 Kilometers
0 400 Miles
NICOBAR
ISLANDS
Boundary representation is
not necessarily authoritative.
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India's Population Growth:
An Important Constraint
on Gandhi's Domestic Agenda
Continued rapid population growth in India will
hinder Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi's efforts to accel-
erate economic modernization, improve living stan-
dards, and shore up political stability. India's popula-
tion totaled 768 million in mid-1985-up by nearly
150 million since 1975. The population is projected to
grow by another 165 million people in the next
decade.'
India is rapidly overtaking China as the world's most
populous country. For 30 years India's annual rate of
population growth has stayed just above or below the
2-percent mark as birth and death rates declined at
about the same pace. Death rates declined steadily
throughout the postindependence period as a result of
better health care, improved food production and
distribution, and slowly rising family incomes. Birth
rates began declining somewhat later because of
couples' lagging motivation to limit their family size
and inadequate knowledge and supply of low-cost
family planning options. China's population growth
rate, in contrast to India's, declined precipitously from
2.7 to 1.3 percent per year during the 1970s and early
1980s.
India's population will continue to grow well into the
21st century as today's children marry and have
children. US Census Bureau projections show India's
population nearly doubling to 1.3 billion during the
next 30 to 35 years. The net yearly addition to India's
population-even if projected declines in birth and
death rates take place-will be 16.3 million in 1995
and 13.3 million as late as 2020. If birth rates do not
continue to decline or death rates drop more quickly,
additions to the population will be even larger.
Figure 2
India and China: Projected
Population Growth, 1985-2025
~ I I I
0 1985 95 2005 15 25
India
China
? The number of youth requiring education, jobs, and
public services will grow faster than India can
provide them, raising the likelihood that increasing-
ly large numbers of young people will become ready
recruits for antigovernment causes.
We believe that several aspects of India's population
dynamics, driven by continued growth, will be impor-
tant underlying determinants of political instability.
Three elements in particular will cd"mplicate Gandhi's
efforts to consolidate popular support and advance his
economic reforms:
? Differing population growth and migration rates
among sectarian and ethnic groups will aggravate
rivalries and force changes in government policies
and institutions that broker political and economic
power.
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Figure 3
India: Birth, Death, and Natural
Increase Rates, 1910-2000
1 I I I I I I I I
1910 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 2000
Source: Government of India census figures
a Projected.
? Rapid urbanization will make efficient management
of large cities increasingly difficult, siphon off mon-
ey needed for agricultural modernization, and in-
crease the tensions between central, state, and local
authorities.
India's large population-growing at a 2.1-percent
rate-is predominantly young, Hindu, and rural. In-
dia dominates South Asia demographically. Pakistan
and Bangladesh each have populations of about 100
million, while Nepal and Sri Lanka have 16 million
people each. India's population growth rate is slightly
lower than that of its neighbors, except for Sri Lanka,
Gandhi's Statements on Population
I think our biggest problem in India is popula-
tion-getting it under control-because it af-
fects everything that we want to do.
He has elaborated to the press that on the political
side he hopes to "make the population more homoge-
neous, more cohesive-reducing the difference be-
tween religions, castes, regions, languages. " On the
development side he has said he hopes to 'lift people
from their very gross poverty and make them viable
economically.'
In April 1985, Gandhi told a group of Indian and
foreign businessmen, "We are going to tackle popula-
tion growth on a war footing. "
where the rate of growth is estimated by the US
Census Bureau to have dropped below 2 percent:
? Over three-quarters of India's population is under
40. Close to 40 percent are under 15. Life expectan-
cy for those born in 1985 is estimated to be 55 years
and infant mortality to be about 100 deaths per
1,000 live births.
? India remains overwhelmingly rural despite recent
growth in the percentage of the population living in
urban areas. Three-quarters of India's population,
according to 1981 Indian census data, lives in over
500,000 villages-many too small to justify separate
schools or other government services.
3.2 to 3.8 percent between the 1960s and 1970s,
according to Indian census figures.
the trend reflects a concentration of
growth in intermediate-size cities (500,000 to I
million) and a diminution in the growth rate of most
of the largest cities (over 5 million).
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? The 1981 census returns show that 41 percent of all
Indians over 5 years old are literate. The breakdown
for subpopulations shows that nearly three-quarters
of urban males, but less than one-quarter of rural
females, are literate.
National demographic averages in India mask differ-
ences by geographic region, state, and ethnic group
that confound national policy and administrative di-
rection. The populations of India's 22 states, for
example, show wide variations in size, rates of growth,
and literacy. Six states have populations exceeding 50
million-the largest, Uttar Pradesh with 115 million,
approaches the size of Japan. The five states in the
northeast, in contrast, have small populations ranging
from 300,000 to 2.1 million. Other examples of the
variability of Indian demographics include:
? The state of Kerala has demographic and social
characteristics that vary considerably from Indian
averages. Some 69 percent of the population is
literate. Kerala's death and infant mortality rates
are 50 percent below the national averages. Indian
scholars note that the state has historically led the
nation in public health and education and that this
progress, not higher per capita income, helps to
explain lower growth. The state's per capita income
falls below the all-India average.
? India's 75 million Muslims live in every state and
territory and showed the highest rate of growth of
any sectarian group between 1971 and 1981. The
country's 16 million Christians outnumber the Sikhs
in India, live primarily in the south, and showed the
slowest rate of growth of any religious group from
1971 to 1981.
? Urban young men are more likely to be enrolled in
school than are rural young men. The 1981 census
data show that, for ages 10 to 14, when enrollment
levels are highest, 77 percent of urban but only 58
percent of rural males were enrolled in school.
India's economy has sustained about a 5-percent
annual rate of growth during the 1980s, largely as a
result of increases in agricultural production and crop
yields-which account for nearly 40 percent of
GDP-and more modest gains in industrial output.
The Green Revolution in agriculture-the growth in
production and crop yields through the adoption of
high-yielding varieties, chemical fertilizers, and ex-
panded irrigation-has been one of India's major
economic success stories.
India's international financial position is comfortable
but will probably deteriorate during the remainder of
the decade. Increased domestic crude oil production
and International Monetary Fund support during the
past five years contributed to New Delhi's current
favorable balance-of-payments situation. Over the
next five years, however, India faces higher payments
for petroleum imports, military equipment, and debt
servicing. In addition, the industrial modernization
and liberalization programs being pushed by Gandhi
will increase demand for imported capital goods and
technology, while prospects for Indian exports are
uncertain.
Rajiv Gandhi's strong interest in upgrading technol-
ogy and increasing productivity has prompted him to
accelerate economic liberalization moves begun sever-
al years ago. Gandhi still intends that the government
retain overall control of the economy, but he believes
that less bureaucratic meddling and more competition
in the private sector will spur modernization, limit
corruption, and ease strains on the government bud-
get.
Gandhi's policy reforms have fueled an atmosphere of
optimism in the business community. Manufacturers
in several industries may now set up new operations or
expand capacity and vary their product mix without
seeking government permission. He has also relaxed
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Figure 4
India's Population
F Punjab Chari igarh T
Himacha
Pradesh
Jammu
and.: Kashmir
L Assam
Daman /
_D3dra and Nagar Haveli
Pondicherry)
7
Orissa
i-Chandl
New Z
Delhi
Delhi
Uttar -
Pradesh
D }?
Dadra and tXt?Yi2rdS't1i
Nagar Havel
States and union territories
scaled according to population
Trip
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Figure 5
India: Population by Religion and Growth Rates, 1971 and 1981
Other 2.8
Sikh 10.3
Muslim 57.8
Muslim
Sikh
Other
Hindu
Christian
Hindu 549.7 -
Other 3.5
Sikh 13.1
Christian 16.1 -
Muslim 75.5 -
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Figure"6
India's Religions
Dadra and
Nagar H veli
M
Jammu
and
Kashmir
Tamil
Nadu (I
Percentage of
total state or
union territory
population
!arTU
P
d
h
ra
es
Bihar
r
c- CSIBa
Boundary representation is
not necessarily authoritative.
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antimonopoly legislation, lowered personal and corpo-
rate tax rates, encouraged imports of high technology,
and pushed the bureaucracy to expedite decisions that
affect business
Gandhi's efforts are showing some signs of success.
The incentive programs and a crackdown on tax
evasion apparently have struck a responsive note with
the middle class and business leaders. Indian mone-
tary officials believe revenue from taxes will be 20
percent higher this year. Private businessmen have
moved to increase investment in response to the
Gandhi administration's decision to ease licensing
requirements in several industries, and investor confi-
dence remains high, as demonstrated by a booming
stock market. Improved Indo-US ties have contribut-
ed to the approval of US export licenses for over 60
advanced high-technology systems.
Gandhi's economic modernization program is not
without its limitations. Government revenue short-
ages-a major factor behind Gandhi's push to free the
private sector-may set limits on additional tax con-
cessions. Gandhi will also have to weigh looming
foreign payments strains against his wish to promote
productivity through increased imports of technology.
Gandhi also must contend with nascent domestic
opposition to his economic initiatives:
? Cutting food subsidies or closing unprofitable fac-
tories to reduce public-sector losses run the risk of
increased social unrest.
? Farmers held their first major public protest against
his economic policies in October.
? Bureaucrats have traditionally resisted efforts to
reduce their authority.
? Perhaps most important, Gandhi faces charges,
particularly from within the Congress Party, that
his policies are widening the gap between the rich
The Consequences of Rapid Population Growth
India's youthful and growing population places ever
increasing demands on the country's political leader-
ship and economy for places in school and for jobs.
A spokesman in Gandhi's office refuted the accusa-
tion that Gandhi's government has abandoned the
poor in favor of the middle class in an interview with
the international press:
The poor in India determine changes in govern-
ment. Gandhi just can't forget the poor. I don't
think any of those 70 or 100 million-said to be
the new middle class-can forget the poor ei-
ther. All we have to do is open the back door and
see that the poor who live in the lanes outnum-
ber us.
According to the official, Gandhi sees the increasing
numbers of middle-class Indians as the force that is
enabling the economy to grow at a geometric rate and 25X1
will allow the underprivileged to break out of their
cycle of poverty:
They make it possible to say we will enter the
21st century in the year 2000
Moreover, the official maintained that India's less
privileged already are being carried upward on a
"tide of prosperity and now constitute the fastest
rising class in the country. " He spoke of an "explo-
sion of the lower middle class. "
The largest cohort in India's broadly based population
pyramid is under 5, most of whom will survive to
school, employment, and marriage ages. The pyramid
for 1995 shows that the pattern will continue. New
Delhi has committed itself to improving opportunities
for the large and growing number of people who have
been born since Indian independence. They have
grown up with the Green Revolution in agriculture,
the spread of literacy, radio, and now television-
rather than the independence struggles, famines, and
isolated village life familiar to earlier generations.
25X1
25X1
25X1
25X1
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Figure 7
India: Population Pyramids, 1985 and 1995
Age groups
80
75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
Population born after
Indian independence
r' G
80 60 40 20 0 20 40 60 80
Million
80
75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
80 60 40 20 0 20 40 60 80
Million
Educational Gaps Closing Slowly
Steadily growing numbers in the school-age groups
will place increasingly heavy burdens on New Delhi
as it tries to meet the objective set in India's 1951
Constitution of providing free and compulsory educa-
tion to all children up to 14 years old. Over the last 35
years, expenditures on education have escalated from
1.1 to 3 percent of national income, and the number of
children in primary school (grades one to five) have
increased fourfold, from 22.3 million to 90.5 million.
Yet, according to 1981 Indian census data, just 44
percent of the 179.3 million 5- to 14-year-olds were
enrolled in school. By 1990 the number of 5- to 14-
year-olds is projected to increase to 195.8 million.
Gandhi plans to expand technical and vocational
training at the secondary and college level and limit
the number of liberal arts graduates, according to the
Indian press. He says he hopes to staunch the flow of
educated youth from the schools into the ranks of the
unemployed and to encourage acquisition of those
skills needed to advance India's technological aspira-
tions. His drive to shift resources to technical educa-
tion, however, may run into difficulty. Growing num-
bers of aspiring secondary and college students will
continue to apply for places in traditionally presti-
gious liberal arts fields that hold poor employment
prospects. The higher per capita cost of expanding
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technical schools will also slow Gandhi's drive. Census
data for 1981 show the dimensions of New Delhi's
dilemma. Only one-quarter of today's 15- to 19-year-
olds are enrolled in school. Some 84 percent of the 4.5
million college graduates in their twenties and early
thirties hold nontechnical degrees.
Youth Face Poor Employment Prospects
We believe Gandhi's most difficult task will be to
create enough jobs to absorb the rapidly growing
number of youth entering the labor force, particularly
as he pursues policies that call for job cuts in India's
large state-run industries or in the massive govern-
ment bureaucracies.
unemployment today is most acute among educated
youth in the 15 to 20 age group-those whose expec-
tations are highest.
during the first half of the 1980s the labor force was
growing at a 2.5-percent annual rate, adding approxi-
mately 7 million young people to the total each year.
however,
large private and public-sector firms created only
800,000 jobs per year during the period. The remain-
ing 6 million or more continued in school, took
marginal jobs, or joined India's estimated 42.8 million
chronically or temporarily unemployed.
With slow growth in nonagricultural jobs and Gand-
hi's emphasis on technological innovation in agricul-
ture-the majority of the 250 million people active in
the labor force are in agriculture-rural youth face
worsening employment prospects. According to Indi-
an census data, the proportion of the labor force in
agriculture declined from 69.6 percent to 65.6 from
1971 to 1981. With declining access to land or income
rural youth will join others who have left for the cities
and towns
Shifts in the ethnic and sectarian composition of state
and local populations have contributed to ethnic and
communal tensions. Migration by particular subpopu-
lations, rather than different rates of natural increase,
has upset or has been perceived to upset the existing
demographic balance
In Punjab, Sikhs contend that their numerical major-
ity is threatened by unskilled Hindu labor moving into
the state and Sikhs moving out for better education
and higher paying jobs. According to the 1981 Indian
census, Punjab's 10.2 million Sikhs represented 60.8
percent of the state's population, while the 6.2 million 25X1
Hindus represented 36.9 percent. Sikh politicians note
that many of these Hindus were formerly seasonal
migrants who had settled permanently and claim the
number of additional Hindu landless laborers reaches
into the millions.
The Punjab Accord, signed in July 1985 by Gandhi
and Sikh leader Sant Longowal to end martial law in 25X1
the state, left the ticklish issue of dividing predomi-
nantly Hindu and Sikh villages between Punjab and
neighboring Haryana, which is largely Hindu, to a 25X1
special commission. The commission is scheduled to
complete realigning the boundary by early 1986. To
the extent that normality returns to Punjab, however,
we expect the influx of Hindus and outflow of Sikhs to
continue, which in time will probably overwhelm the
Sikh majority in Punjab. A continuation of violence
by Sikh extremists against Hindus would slow the
inflow of Hindu labor, and any repetition of the anti-
tion would pull Sikhs scattered throughout India's
cities back to Punjab.
Migration into the northeastern states of India has 25X1
fueled political agitation and outbreaks of violence by
separatist movements over a period of years. The
conflict in Assam stems from competition for educa-
tional opportunities, jobs, and land between the indig-
enous population and immigrants. Most of the immi-
grants have come from Bengali-speaking areas of
Bangladesh and India. Militant Assamese students 25X1
have forced the postponement of national elections
and census taking in the state with their demand to
exclude the 5 million people they consider illegal
immigrants. In mid-1985 Gandhi and the student
leaders agreed to a formula for determining the
resident and voting status of the "foreigners," which
is to lead to elections and possibly the repatriation of
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Table 1
All-India Trends in Urbanization, 1941-81
Census
Population Percent
Average Annual
Growth in
Transfer From Rural Areas
Year
Urban
Growth Rate (percent)
Urban Population
(thousands)
Total Urban
Urban
Thousands
As Percent
(thousands) (thousands)
of Growth
3.47
18,071
NA
NA
2.30
15,932
8,706
55
3.21
29,404
10002
35
3.78
49,222
23,088
47
Note: India's adoption of a more restrictive definition of "urban"
for the 1961 census explains in part the slowdown in the growth of
the urban population.
those immigrants who arrived after 1971. The settle-
ment gives pre-1966 immigrants full residence and
voting privileges but requires that those arriving
between 1966 and 1971 wait 10 years before voting.
The south Indian state of Tamil Nadu is host to about
100,000 Sri Lankan Tamil refugees. According to US
Consular officials in Madras, most Indian Tamils
consider the refugees competitors for scarce economic
resources. Peace talks between Colombo and the
Tamil insurgents have not yet addressed the issue of
the refugees' status, but we believe the potential for
violence in Tamil Nadu will intensify if the peace
talks fail or the settlement does not rovide for the
refugees' return
education, jobs, and housing to expose the weaknesses
of state and local police, strain New Delhi's relations
ing for issues to exploit.
with state governments, and force New Delhi to call
out the Army to restore order. The fallout from such
incidents has often served opposition politicians look-
In Bombay, India's second-largest city with over 8
million residents, the Hindu nativist Shiv Sena party
touched off two months of rioting in 1984 and then
won municipal elections in 1985 largely by blaming
outsiders-especially Muslims from the state of Uttar
Pradesh-for the city's problems. Shiv Sena politi-
cians provoked the initial round of communal violence
with inflammatory anti-Muslim rhetoric and posters.
They later capitalized on the voters' anti-immigrant
sentiment and dissatisfaction with the incumbent
officials to capture a surprise victory at the polls.
Competition between longtime urban residents and
recent urban arrivals has intensified and frequently
flared into antigovernment violence as India's annual
urban growth rate accelerated from 3.2 to 3.8 percent
and the urban population grew from 106 million to
156 million from 1971 to 1981. We expect the
episodes of violence growing out of the scramble for
Hyderabad, in the opposition-controlled state of An-
dhra Pradesh, has also experienced repeated out-
breaks of violence in recent years. The city's popula-
tion, according to 1971 Indian census figures-the
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Table 2
Population and Growth Rates of the
20 Largest Cities of India, 1981
Hyderabad Andhra Pradesh
Ahmadabad Gujarat
1981 Population (thousands) Average Annual
Growth Rate (percent)
latest available at this level of detail-was about
evenly divided between Hindus and Muslims and
growing rapidly. Anti-immigrant sentiment runs
strong in the city and is exploited by state and local
politicians seeking support. Although communal in-
sults usually touch off inner-city violence, as in the
case of Bombay, politicians are suspected of engineer-
ing such outbreaks to strengthen their electoral sup-
port. Political leaders regularly raise the specter of a
flood of migrants-always from the other sectarian
group or outside the state-swamping the urban
housing and job markets, according to the Indian
press.
In Ahmadabad, the state capital of Gujarat, pro-
longed violence during 1985 compelled New Delhi to
deploy the Army to restore calm and forced the
Congress Party to retract its statewide campaign
pledge to increase the reserved places for lower caste
groups in colleges and universities. The violence in-
cluded clashes between Hindus and Muslims in the
poorest sections of the city as well as intercaste
confrontations over the proposed educational reforms.
Gandhi eventually dismissed the incumbent Congress
Party Governor for failing to handle the issues at the
state level effectively.
New Delhi has had difficulty absorbing the additional 25X1
2.2 million people added to its population from 1971
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Poor migrants in squatter settlements compete
for low-paying, occasional employment within
to 1981. Groups bent on peaceful or violent demon-
strations in the capital city have no difficulty recruit-
ing participants in the crowded slums on the outskirts
of the city. The anti-Sikh violence following the
assassination of Indira Gandhi in 1984, for example,
was carried out by such individuals, according to
Indian accounts.
Gandhi, like Indian officials before him, says he is
committed to reducing the nation's rate of population
growth through purely voluntary means. India's popu-
lation policy since the early 1950s has assumed that
demographic change will follow the classic "transi-
tion" model. According to this theory-reflected in
Indian official thinking-social and economic devel-
opment precipitates declines in death rates first and
only later prompts declines in birth rates. Indian
policy also has held that a family planning program
would accelerate the decline in birth rates, even where
literacy and incomes, for example, were just begin-
Working-ctass families in Delhi have accepted
crowded living conditions in exchange for prox-
Rajiv has promised to revitalize India's family plan-
ning program and has proposed a $3.6 billion bud-
get-a 50-percent increase over previous alloca-
tions-for the 1986-90 five-year plan. With the
additional funds, the program aims to raise from 29 to
42 percent the proportion of eligible couples who use
contraception. New monetary incentives have been
proposed: a five-year, $5 per month subsidy to couples
who elect sterilization after the birth of their second
child, and a $5,000, 20-year bond for couples who stop
childbearing with just two daughters.2
Gandhi appointed Krishna Kumar, a young, highly
respected Indian civil servant and head of a major
manufacturing firm, as the new Minister of State for
Health and Family Welfare in the Cabinet reshuffle
in late September 1985. According to US Embassy
reports, his appointment is widely welcomed by bu-
reaucrats in the Ministry. We expect Kumar to turn
ping to rise.
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Well-to-do Delhi and Bombay residents have
complained of traffic snarls, deteriorating public
services; and rising crime that they associate
to professionals in the media and advertising fields,
like those who aided Gandhi's successful election
campaign, to craft a new family planning message
and to make more effective use of television, radio,
and films to reach young couples.'
The Likely Domestic Response to Gandhi's Family
Planning Initiatives
We believe that Gandhi can depend on the new
generation of politicians that his election victory
brought to power in New Delhi to support his econom-
ic and family planning policies. Many of his close
advisers belong to India's elite-which has long
backed both public and private population limitation
programs. They, like Gandhi, typically have small
families
Gandhi also has a core group of young, enthusiastic
proponents who, we expect, will support his population
programs in Parliament. Eighty-six of the 401 Con-
gress Party members of Parliament are first-time
' Television had reached an estimated 50 percent of the population
by late 1984 and is expected to reach 70 percent by early 1986,
The Army has been deployed with increasing
frequency to restore order following police fail-
ures to control communal and sectarian violence
legislators who swept into office with Rajiv. These
first-time legislators share not only Gandhi's priorities
but also favor his pragmatic approach to problem
solving. The Indian press has described them as a
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the new members through three sessions of this
Parliament. They have been portrayed in the press as
economically independent and a marked contrast to
both the traditional dhoti-clad, aging freedom fighter
and to the loud, patronage-wielding young members
of Parliament brought into politics by Rajiv's brother,
Sanjay.
Vijayanthimala Bali, one of several movie and sports
idols among the legislative newcomers, has launched
her own family planning drive in Andhra Pradesh and
taken the Health and Family Welfare Ministry to
task for its shortcomings. She is quoted in the press as
saying that her first priority is to do something about
family planning-to take the campaign to every door-
step in the villages.
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Once before, in 1975-76, New Delhi launched a major
family planning campaign. Rajiv's brother Sanjay,
then being groomed to assume the prime-minister-
ship, gave the problem the top-level, urgent political
support Indian elites argued was needed to mobilize
the Indian bureaucracy. Under pressure, lower level
leaders turned to sterilization as thefastest and most
reliable of the family planning options experimented
with during the previous decade and pushed it vigor-
ously, according to US scholars. Those workers who
resorted to coercion did so in response to intense
pressure for results-in this case, large numbers of
sterilizations-with no excuses accepted for failure
to meet targets.
The drive was successful when measured by family
planning service statistics. In the single year of the
campaign, 8 million sterilizations were reported-
more than three times the number in the preceding
year. This accomplishment-achieved within a mat-
ter of months-meant a nearly 50-percent increase in
the proportion of Indian couples believed to be pro-
tected by modern contraception.
By the time the intensive family planning drive came
to an end in early 1977, however, millions had
suffered harassment at the hands of officials bent on
implementing it, according to US scholars. The Con-
gress Party and the political leaders who had backed
it were out of office, and the program was in disarray.
US scholars found that excesses in the sterilization
drive in the Hindi-speaking northern and central
states led to the repudiation of the Congress Party in
traditional electoral strongholds.
The major obstacle to Gandhi's family planning drive
is likely to come from rural Indians who are bound to
the caste-based social system that still permeates
village life and that encourages large families. Three-
fourths of India's population live in rural villages with
less than 2,000 residents. Given the close relationship
between low standards of living, low levels of literacy,
and high birth rates, the 450 million people under 40
in rural areas probably will be the last to alter their
preferences for large families. Customs and traditions
surrounding marriage and childbirth, especially of
sons, continue to dominate village life. The traditional
preference for male children is strong and is justified
in the village economy where men produce and earn
more for their work in the fields. Men also tend to
remain with and provide financial support to aging
parents in rural areas.
Gandhi's program could also draw criticism as a
"Western" technological intrusion on traditional life
as has happened in other developing countries such as
Iran and Egypt. Some conservative high-caste Hindus
objected to Sanjay's family planning drive in the late
1970s on these grounds. They may once again con-
clude that Rajiv's initiatives-including his family
planning program-threaten their traditionally pow-
erful position in Indian society.'
Because the issues of economic growth and family
planning will be linked by both Gandhi and his
political opposition, efforts to promote a smaller fam-
ily norm for India could come under attack as part of
a more general backlash against "modernization."
Gandhi's economic policies already have been criti-
cized by some Congress Party, farm, and labor lead-
ers as being skewed to favor of India's middle and
upper classes and small private corporate sector.
We do not believe that the growth of India's popula-
tion will slow appreciably before it becomes the most
populated country in the world by early in the second
quarter of the 21st century. Gandhi's bold approach
to other priority issues-Punjab, Assam, and the Sri
Lankan communal conflict-indicates that he will
' We doubt this kind of rallying cry would have a similar appeal to
Indian minorities. Heightened self-consciousness among religious
minorities has not been strongly tied to antitechnological or anti-
Western rhetoric. Sikhs, for example, have been quick to adopt new
technology and have smaller families on average than either Hindus
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launch his own program to address the complex
problems of population growth. His stress on volunta-
rism and the importance of modernization in increas-
ing motivation to reduce fertility shows, however, that
he recognizes India's transition to lower fertility will
necessarily be gradual. If India manages to slightly
accelerate economic growth, introduce a family plan-
ning campaign, and rejuvenate its bureaucracy, Gan-
dhi will be able to hasten the day when India's
population stops growing-perhaps when it has
We expect Moscow to make a concerted effort to
disrupt Gandhi's economic reforms to prevent deepen-
ing economic ties to the United States, Western
Europe, and Japan. Moscow will again use its media
contacts and encourage its Indian friends in the
Congress Party and Communist parties to attack
Gandhi's liberalization initiatives. The press has al-
ready carried articles warning of the political dangers
of opening India's doors to multinational corporations
and capital-intensive development.
reached 1.4-1.5 billion.
We believe Gandhi will not be able to sustain an
effective family planning campaign through the 1980s
without maintaining his current high level of political
popularity. As a result, we expect he will be a
tenacious advocate rather than impatient taskmaster.
His party enjoys a comfortable majority in Parlia-
ment and controls most state governments. He has
favored a collective approach to problem solving and
disparaged the authoritarian style of his brother.
Gandhi is also well aware of the political risks of a
coercive campaign.
We believe Gandhi and his supporters face an uphill
battle, given the dynamics of population growth that
virtually guarantee increasingly large cohorts of
young school and job aspirants. Ultimately, the pro-
gress of Rajiv's "war" on population growth will
depend heavily on his ability to deliver the educational
and employment opportunities to young Indians that
will alter their motivation to marry early and have
large families.
Gandhi's efforts to reduce Indian population growth
probably will have few direct implications for the
United States or for Indo-US relations. Washington,
as one of India's largest bilateral aid donors, probably
will be asked for additional assistance to help finance
the family planning program, but New Delhi will
almost certainly look to international and other bilat-
eral donors as well.
The population program could, however, have an
indirect negative effect on Indo-US relations. Rajiv's
policies of accelerating economic growth and modern-
izing India by early in the next century are strongly
linked to New Delhi's widening ties to the West and
the United States in particular. A conservative indige-
nous backlash against Rajiv's foreign-linked policies,
which could conceivably extend to an aggressive
family planning program, could involve Washington
as a target.
Opportunities for the Soviet Union
Population problems and attendant economic, politi-
cal, ethnic, and sectarian stresses create conditions
favorable for Soviet efforts to derail Gandhi's moves
to improve relations with the United States, Pakistan,
and China. The pro-Soviet Indian press and Soviet
media regularly feature articles alleging, for example,
US and Pakistani sponsorship of Sikh terrorists in
Punjab, US and Chinese interference in Assam, and
Pakistani influence behind Hindu-Muslim clashes in
India's cities.
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