(UNTITLED)

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85T00287R000101000001-1
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 4
• Document Creation Date: January 12, 2017
• Document Release Date: June 28, 2011
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: April 25, 1980
• Content Type: MEMO

1 _
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/06/28: CIA-RDP85T00287R000101000001-1
75 April 1980
MEMO-,ANDUM
LIBERIA: THE CURRENT SITUATION
The security situation in Monrovia remains relatively calla. The
executions this week of 13 former government officials did not lead to
any civil disturbances in the country, rather there were celebrations by
the indigenous population. The reaction, however, among the Americs-
Liberians, the former ruling elite, and expatriates and members of tlls
business community was one of shock and r ve concern over the inteo*$,ly
of the new military government.
We have conflicting reports on the possibility of aelditiomall
tions. At least some members of th
l
e ta
i military V" (kp4ra a$
People's Redemption Council) apparomtly aw aeknowi
executions will not serve any vsefvl aw~ - -Z tint w
told the Embassy political officer on Thsrsiay that only jail
would be handed down from now on
:?
al?^=~r th
y
,
to continue to c can house." They a apparently argue that while iwtsrMtj"
cpinion has been negative, the domestic reaction was favorable. Civilian
meitibers of the cabinet had tried all along to prevent draconian msssan"
but failed to convince the military. Most civilian officials did net
receive advance word of the executions and were shocked and disappointed.
The military tribunal has refused thus far to continue its hearings,
upset that their original recommendation for only four executions was
overruled by the military council. It appears now that the debate over
further executions is between both military and civiliao officials
Loun:eling moderation and the hardliners; Doe's position and the extent
of I is infl
- --
en unkn
~~:~,~~,~r?n~:.;cn ~,as pr.,,,ur~r~d
Af}>;oa Division,
the
e
I -
of
-j rs
t : e?rc h. 1 t. tins coordinated with the Directorate for operations.
nta :ire WC!UOrnC caul mau be addrea.,,Pd to thief,
i
Ar
ca
PA M 80-10204
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/06/28: CIA-RDP85T00287R000101000001-1
25X1
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/06/28: CIA-RDP85T00287R000101000001-1
Whether or not further executions are carried out will reflect the
degree of influence of the moderates and may signal the future orientation
of their government. Should the executions continue Americo-Liberians,
whose administrative expertise in civil service is vital to many governmental
functions, would probably attempt to flee the country. The exodus of
foreign personnel, who operate businesses and provide technical know-
how, would have an adverse impact on Liberia's already strained economy.
Safety of Americans
The US ALrbassador believes Americans are safe for the time being,
but he feels that the situation is tenuous and has recommended that
emergency and evacuation planning should continue on an urgent basis.
Among his concerns in the wake of the executions were the continued
uncertainty over discipline in the army and the "appallingly low level
of literacy and understanding" among the soldiers running the country.
A slew reduction of the American presence has begun, mostly among members
of the business corimunity who are sending their dependents out of the
Th;re i.; no indication that the new government's desire to maintain
clc;e and friendly relations with the US has changed. Lrnbassy officials
have duly contact with the authorities concerning the safety of American
citizens arid receive assurances of cooperation. In handling individual
security situations the Liberian officials have responded with the
necessary support to bring the situation under control and have cooperated
in serurin the release of American citizens detained outside the Monrovia
Foreign Minister Matthews has recently again requested emergency
rredical supplies--which US officials are trying to arrange as a grant.
Following up on earlier requests for military assistance, he also noted
that the Ministry of Defense was compiling a list of requirements,
costing about $1.4 million. In previous conversations about military
ar, istonce, some officials have emphasized the importance of US assets
in the country--key civil and military communications facilities and
large private US investments. Although the new government probably has
not yet focused specifically on the future of these facilities, the
implication is that the leaders would be willing to use them to pressure
i' her nrobl ems Facing New Government
The most immediate task facing the new leaders is to restore public
~.Ontirien~-e that the government is in control. At this time, they would
le hr,l pressed to contain any widespread unrest. The command structure
of tit, ,,r!ny broke down as a result of the coup, and has rot been effectively
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/06/28: CIA-RDP85T00287R000101000001-1
 .il l,itt. 1
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/06/28: CIA-RDP85T00287R000101000001-1
restored. Major military units still cannot communicate with one another,
and the transportation capability is poor. Traditional lack of discipline
amon
the enli
t
d
g
s
e
ranks is still very much evident.
Other underlying problems affect the longer-term sta0ility of the
regimc. Srjt. Doe has not yet displayed any ideological leanings, but
his cabinet is a diverse group of military men, former op7osition leaders,
and holdovers from the old government. Rivalry between the civilians
and military appears inevitable. The civilians themselves represent two
left-leaning groups whose only common goal was a desire to replace the
Tolbert government. They can be expected to begin jockeying for positions
of power in a civilian government that they believe will ultimately
replace military rule. Tribal rivalries within the military have already
surfaced and
re
t
ti
l
a
a po
en
a
serious threat. The ruling council is
coh-posed mainly of men from Doe's tribe--a minority group in the army.
D
oe reportedly has resisted demands to broaden the membership.
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/06/28: CIA-RDP85T00287R000101000001-1
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/06/28: CIA-RDP85T00287R000101000001-1
0
LIBERIA: Current Economic- Si t option
Liberian economic activity aappenrs to be nearly back
to normal, and the imminent arrival of rice shipments may
remove the worst short-term threat to the new regime.
Nevertheless, public hoarding of banknotes, emigration of
Lebanese merchants, and the risk of pull-outs by foreign
investors continue to frustrate the government's efforts
Banks and most shops have been open since 16 April and
transport, industry, and the bureaucracy are functioning
again. The threat of food shortages appears to have been
overcome by arrangements to divert a ship carrying rice
for Abidjan to Monrovia. Supplies of gasoline and other
petroleum products, with the possible exception of imported
aviation gas
are suffi
i
,
c
ent.
After a period of turmoil, most foreign-owned enterprises
are working normally. Nevertheless, many dependents of
expatriate workers are leaving the country in the wake of
the initial violence which directed harassment against most
foreigners as well as prominent Americo-Liberians. Foreign
companies are reconsidering the status of their operations,
any pull out would eli
i
m
nate badly needed jobs and cut
government revenue. Furthermore, a possible large-scale
emigration b
Leb
y
anese, who make up the core of Liberian
commerce
would
,
certainly hamper retail trade.
Restrictions on bank withdrawals, although rumored to
be relaxed soon, have already exacerbated currency hoarding
and led to cash shortages. Major firms, which meet payrolls
in cash, are seeking exceptions to the rule in order to
prevent violence from unpaid workers. Cash flow problems
incl general uncertainty have deterred merchants from
re-ordering goods, setting the scene for future shortages.
Currency restrictions are also im edin the import of vital
consumer goods.
wage and price policies of the new government show
little sign of being well thought out. As one of his first
official acts President Doe nearly doubled the pay rate for
army privates. A committee has been scheduled to examine
pricing of locally produced commodities and announce some
price cuts. Higher salaries and any increases in government
:subsidies will place a major strain on the Liberian budget.
ILLEGIB
ILLEGIB
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/06/28: CIA-RDP85T00287R000101000001-1