(UNTITLED)

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP86T01017R000201890001-0
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 7
• Document Creation Date: January 12, 2017
• Document Release Date: January 25, 2011
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: February 4, 1986
• Content Type: MEMO

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DATE Z /Ut
DOC NO
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Central Intelligence Agency
Washington, D. C. 20505
DIRECTORATE OF INTELLIGENCE
4 February 1986
India-Pakistan: Status of Talks
Summary
A flurry of high-level exchanges between Indian
and Pakistani officials, set in motion by the meeting
between Prime Minister Gandhi and President Zia in
December, has led to the first major substantive
advances in bilateral political, military, and economic
relations since the early 1970s. Several additional
meetings are tentatively scheduled over the next few
months, to be topped off--if enough progress can be
made--with a visit by Gandhi to Islamabad to sign a
bilateral treaty. Both Gandhi and Zia will need to
keep momentum building in order to surmount ingrained
suspicions among officials in both countries.
Over the past month, three ministerial meetings have been
held which have been notable for their lack of rancor and the
ability of the participants to agree on some issues:
This memorandum was prepared b the
Subcontinent Branch and the Pakistan/Bangladesh
Branch, South Asia Division, Office of Near Eastern and South
Asian Analysis. Information as of 4 February 1986 was used in
its preparation. Questions and comments should be directed to
Chief, South Asia Division
NESA M #86-20019
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-- The Defense Secretaries met in Islamabad to discuss
extending the ceasefire line at the Siachin Glacier, where
troops on both sides carried out a series of low-level
clashes during much of 1985. The Secretaries were unable
to find any ground for agreement: India holds the bulk of
the contested territory and is unwilling to give it up.
The officials did, however, agree to an aerial survey of
the maritime and land boundaries in the Rann of Kutch to
establish a basis for formal division of that area.
-- The Foreign Secretaries met in Islamabad to discuss a
variety of bilateral issues. Both sides agreed to
repatriate each other's civilian detainees by 31 March.
They also discussed accords on cultural exchanges and
travel, agreeing to consider specific proposals in their
next meeting.
-- The Foreign Secretaries also discussed the terms under
which they could merge India's proposed peace and
friendship treaty with Pakistan's suggested No-War Pact.
But the Indian draft contains provisions that Islamabad
believes impinge on its sovereignty. These center on
Islamabad's reluctance to forswear allowing foreign bases
on its territory and submitting bilateral disputes to
international forums. The talks on a peace treaty are the
first since Indira Gandhi broke off negotiations in .
-- The Finance Ministers, meeting in Islambad, signed a
Memorandum of Understanding establishing the groundwork
for improved economic ties. The accord seeks to more than
double government-controlled commodity trade, review the
limited private trade Pakistan suspended in 1978, increase
broader communication and start joint industrial ventures
in each country.
Bilateral meetings are scheduled to continue through the
spring. Officials are currently meeting to discuss increasing
domestic drug addiction and how to cooperate to halt the
narcotics trade. In mid-February, the Foreign Secretaries will
meet again in Islamabad and two subcommissions on trade and
economic affairs will meet in New Delhi. The Defense Ministries
tentatively plan to resume discussions on the Siachin Glacier
later this spring. Foreign Ministers Bhagat and Yakub Khan will
discuss a peace treaty during their Joint Commission, meeting
tentatively scheduled for late March or early April.
If all goes well in the discussions scheduled in the coming
month,?Gandhi may visit Pakistan later in the year--the first
formal visit of an Indian Prime Minister to Pakistan since
1960. He is probably wary of making the visit without assurances
that a formal bilateral treaty will be signed, fearing that the
Zia government may want to use a visit primarily to impress
domestic and international public opinion.
SECRET
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Hurdles to Improved Relations
The nuclear issue remains the major bilateral stumbling
block, despite the December pledge by Gandhi and Zia not to
attack each country's nuclear facilities. Both sides have backed
away from their early labeling of the December pledge as a
breakthrough. Although Gandhi has softened his criticism of
Islamabad's nuclear weapons program, he still harbors deep
suspicions of Pakistan's intentions. Other high Indian officials
have indicated to the US Embassy that India continues to rely
upon the US to rein in Pakistan's nuclear ambitions. Zia
recently called the agreement "nothing new." There has been no
further movement on the nuclear issue.
Recent political developments in Pakistan may also slow
progress. The Indian Foreign Secretary has expressed concern
that the new civilian government in Islamabad may be backsliding
on Zia's commitment to improve relations. The pro-government
Muslim League has said that the contentious Kashmir border issue
must be settled in a multinational forum--a position New Delhi
rejects--before bilateral relations can be substantially
improved. The Indians also fear that the recent sacking of
Pakistani Finance Minister Mahbub-ul-Huq--a strong proponent of
closer economic ties--may also cast a pall on bilateral
relations. Many Pakistani officials and businessmen do not
support the recent Indo-Pak economic agreements.
Prospects
Gandhi and Zia seem intent on advancing bilateral relations,
but deepseated mutual suspicions as well as bureaucratic
resistance on both sides could easily stymie negotiations. For
the near term, both sides may decide to concentrate on high-
profile, confidence-building measures such as increased trade,
cultural exchanges, and the return of civilian detainees, rather
than the larger, more intractable nuclear and political issues
which have frustrated attempts at improved relations in the'past.
In the short term, a key indicator of the two countries
ability to stay on track will be Pakistan's willingness to follow
through--in the wake of Huq's removal--on the January trade
agreements. Whether the two countries can move beyond
incremental steps toward a major substantive improvement in
relations will probably depend, however, on if agreement can be
reached on a formal bilateral peace treaty.
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- SUBJECT: India-Pakistan: Status of Talks
Internal Distribution:
1 - DDI
1 - NIO/NESA
1 - C/PES
1 - D/NESA
1 - DD/NESA
1 - C/PPS/NESA
1 - C/SO/D/NESA
1 - C/AI/D/NESA
1 - C/PG/D/NESA
1 - C/IA/D/NESA
1 - DDO/NE
1 - DDO/NE
1 - C/OSWR/TTAC
1 - PDB Staff
1 - NID Staff
1 - CPAS/ISS
1 - CPAS/ILS
4 - CPAS/IMD/DB
2 - NESA/PS
1 - C/NESA/SO/S/Branch
1 - C/NESA/SO/P/Branch
1 - C/NESA/SO/A/Branch
1 - C/NESA/SO/I Branch
1 - SO/S Transcript File
DDI/NESA/SO/S
(4 Feb 86)
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SUBJECT: India-Pakistan: Status of Talks (U)
External Distribution:
Mr. Walter Andersen
Bureau of Intelligence and Research
Department of State, Room 4636
Major General Kenneth D. Burns
USAF, Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense
for Near Eastern and South Asian Affairs,
Room 4D765, Pentagon
Ms. Sandra Charles
Director, Near East South Asia Region
International Security Affairs,
Department of Defense, Room 4D765, Pentagon
Captain Edward Louis Christensen, USN, Chief, South Asian
Regional Plans and Policy Branch, Department of Defense, Room
2E973, Pentagon, Washington, DC 20301
Dr. Stephen Cohen
Policy Planning Staff,
Department of State, Room 7311
Mr. James P. Covey
Special Assistant to the President
and Senior Director,
Near East and South Asia Affairs,
National Security Council,
Room 351, Old Executive Office Building,
Mr. Robert Dean
Deputy Director
Bureau of Politico-Military Affairs
Department of State, Room 7428
Mr. Donald R. Fortier
Deputy Assistant to the President
for National Security Affairs
Room 381, Old Executive Office Building
Lt. General Philip C. Gast, USAF
Director of Defense Security Assistance
Department of Defense, Room 4E841
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Mr. Charles W. Greenleaf, Jr.
Assistant Administrator for Asia and Nea East Bureau
Agency for International Development
Department of State, Room 6212
Mr. Donald Gregg
Assistant to the Vice President for National Security Affairs,
Room 381, Executive Office Building,
Washington, DC 20520
Mr. Charles A. Hamilton
Director, Office of Strategic Trade Policy
Defense Technology Security Administration
Department of Defense, Room OSD 400 AND
Mr. Byron Jackson
Office of Intelligence Liaison
Department of Commerce, Room 6854
Mr. Jerry W. Leach
Deputy Director, Office of Strategic Technology
Affairs, Bureau of Politico-Military Affairs
Department of State, Room 7815
Mr. Ralph Lindstrom
Director, Office of Economic Analysis
Bureau of Intelligence and Research
Department of State, Room 8722
Mr. Ron Lorton
Bureau of Intelligence and Research,
South Asia Division,
Department of State, Room 4636A
Mr. Hugh Montgomery
IO/UNA
Department of State
Room 6333
Mr. Douglas Mulholland
Special Assistant to Secretary
Department of Treasury, Room 4324
Mr. Marc Palovitz
Special Assistant for South Asia,
International Security Affairs,
Near Eastern-South Asian Region
Department of Defense, Room 4D765,
Pentagon
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Mr. Robert A. Peck
Deputy Assistant Secretary, Bureau of
Near Eastern and South Asian Affairs,
Department of State, Room 6244
Mr. Christopher Ross
Director, Regional Affairs, Bureau of
Near Eastern and South Asian Affairs
Department of State, Room 5254A
Mr. Grant Smith
Director, INS, Bureau of Near Eastern and
South Asian Affairs
Department of State, Room 5251
Mr. Darnell Whitt
Intelligence Adviser to the Under Secretary
of Defense for Policy,
Room 3E-228, Pentagon
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