JPRS ID: 8271 TRANSLATIONS ON USSR ECONOMIC AFFAIRS

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8 FEeRUARY i979 CFOUO 2179> i OF i

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,7I~ tt5 L/ E3 2 71
- E3 I'~bruary 1h79
~
~
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TRANSLATIONS ON USSR ECONOMIC AFFAIRS
(FOUO 2/797
U. S. ~OINT PUBLICATIONS RESEARCH SERVICE
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17. ~.1 u�~,l. and 1)orumen~ Analya~a. 170. Uescriptora
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8 ~ebrua~y ].979
TRANSL.ATIONS ON USSR ECONOMIC AFFA~RS
(FOUO 2/79) -
Co~cTEtvrs pp~~
Program-Goal Planning on 8ector Level
(C. Ycfimovn; VOPROSY EKONOMIKI, Dec 78) 1
industrt,il I'rucliicti.c~n Structure
(R. Livshits; VOPROSY EKONOMIKI, Dec 78) 16
Methodology of Determining Impnct of New Technology
(V. I~el'zenbnum; VOPROSY EKONOMIKI, Dec 78) 29
' a - [III - USSR - 3 FOUO)
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roti orrr.czn~. usc nNtY
~
PItOCRAM-GOAL PLANNING ON SECTOR LEVEL
Moscaw VOPROSI' ~KONOMIKI in Ruasian No 12, Dec 78 pp 23-33
/Article by E. Yefimova: "Program-Goal Planning on the Sector Level (Uaing
tt~e Example of Scientific ~n8 Technical Programa)"/ _
/1'ext/ The methodolo~y ~f ~:he program-goal approach as ona of the Ways of
making a systems analysis in economics is sCill in the procesa of being
developed. Tlie development of programs at the level of the secto.ra of the
national economy and industry remains the least studied field in the meth-
odology of tt~e program-goal appro~ch in planning, although the solution of
tt~ese problems is of exceptional importance owing to their decisive influ-
ence on the entire course of planning of the national economy. -
Each program is a set of ineasures, which is complete in time and space,
- wirh distinct results which yield to comparison with the demands for re-
sources. For all the diversity of programs there should be embodied in -
th~m one of the dominant features of the program-gual methodology--the co-
ordination of the goals with the resources. Meanwhile often the distribu-
tton o� resources is outside the competence of the compilers of one pro-
~;ram or another, therefore it is poasible to determine for far from each of
them the ways of providing resources of various types, in the asaigned
amounC and of the required quality. The failure to observe this condition
- can threaten the achievement of the set goals.
In order to implement the pr~grams, which do not depend on the compilers
- c~nd go beyond the sector, along with Che de�~elcpment of the general meth-
odology of program-goal planning the need has arisen to study its peculiar-
ities on the sector level. Until recently Chere predominated in economic -
lir.erature r~ one-sided approach to program-goal planning, in which the pro-
gram as such, and not the ser_tor implementing the program, was taken as the
~b~ect of study. In connection with this many questions of the program-
goal planning of a sector and above all its provision with resources re-
m~itned outside the field of vision of investigators.
A[ present ttiere is no generally recognized classification of programs.
In tt~e available literature programs are classified depending on the level
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t~~ott at~t~icrnr, ust. c~Nt,Y
~~C ~hE~ c~bJer.~ (inCerunit, n~tion~l econonttr, ~ectori~l, of individual enr~r-
prLsey,lysoclaCions); the nature of the probl~ms beittg solved (socio-eco-
~iomic, sciecteific und technir.~~1., production Cechnoingy, operaCional organ-
iz~~ion11 and so on); ~he Cerri~orial ~phere ~t their effect (all-union,
r.c~;ional); ~he period of eheir implement~tion (shorC-term, intermediate-
term, l~ng-term) ,and other3.1 Tn our opinion, in addj.Cion Co this, in
_ pr.i.ncip:le cor.rect, but ~rbitrary grouping on Che SecCor 1eve1 there should
be added ehe division o.E progza~s into global programs, which embrace u set
of lntercanttected problema and ensure r}te compleCeness of the development
c~E a relatively closed ob~ect (tt system, a subsystem, an eYement of a sys-
~em) at each 1eve1 of its o~,eration, ,~nd local progrnms, which are aimed
ut the solvln~; u~ ~~c~yone special prablem wtiich faciYitates, but does not de- -
termine the development of the giveti ob~ec~.
The scale of the progrAm has a substantial influence on Che development of
_ thc system and is one of the important features which gover~i Che differ-
enr_es in the strucrux~ilar.rangement of Che ~rograms, the degree of their de-
~ t~~il and ehe means o� distribution of the resources. The reduction of un-
finished construcCion~ for example, is such a global problem for construc-
~io~i. As a local problem it is possible to formulate the following prob-
lem: the incre~is~ by 1990 of the proportion of efficienC types of brfck in
- lts totry.l production volume to SO-90 percent.
'I'he prc~gram-goal arproach can be used with the greatest impact for solving
problems of a global scale, ehat is, problems determining the development of
ti?e sector as a w~~ole. In this case the conditions are created for embrac-
inb ~ind viewing the entire system in question, in connection with which it
:~t~ems possible at least to determine precisely the demands for basic re-
sources and the demands on related secCors. ~
Scienrific and technical programs constitute the ma~ority of Che "mass" of
exis~ing progr~~ms, therefore we consider it feasible to examine the prc+b-
' lems of program-goal planning on the sector level using the example of
sctentific and technical programs. All the more as the :nethodological prin-
ctpl.es and "tectinology" of ttie drafting of scientific and technical pro-
grams have no substantial differences from the princig~.Ps and "Cechnology"
of ttie clraEting of programs of other clas~es.
'I'hc ~;c~ientific and technical program is a set of ineasures which are inter-
c~nnectr.d according to the performers, resocrces, place and time and are
- ntrned at t}ie sotution of a scie�.:tific and technicai problem. Some authors
~~�Sca~r as an obligatory feature of the scientific and technical program
Its cov~rage of all the phases of the "life cycle" of the ob~ect�--from the
- :;ctentiEic idea to the mass dissemination of technology. In this defini-
_ tion tt~ose interconnected sets of ineasures, which are concluded by the
~reution of a pilot model or ensure the increase of knowledge, cannot be
co~isldered scientific and technical programs. Therefore, in our opinion,
tt is impossible [o agree with this point of view.
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A~cienl Lf.ic and tec:hnic~:1 pr.ogr~m crzn be degigtted for. ~he ~olution nf a '
purely yct.entiElc p~oblem whic}? does not t~ave at presenC the economic pre-
r~yu.istees tor mnss utili.zatian (�~r ex~~mple, Che program of a controlled
the~~monucl.e~~ir rr-.uc~lon), Thus, among Che sCientific and technical prob-
].ems which fire ~ppruved ar the national economic leveL axid are sub~ect to
pro~;r~m developmrn~ there are ~lso other, purely scientific prob~.ema: the
study of Che wdrld ocer~n, ehe study of the principle o� aupercondtrctivity
In magneCohydrodynatnic gei~erators And others. Lvidently, it is �easible
~o divide scienti.fic and technical pro~rams into: a) s~~~.~tiy acientific
pr.o~r~ms, which have as n go~l the increase of scientific knowled~e;
b) scientiEic and technical. programs on rhe developmenC of pilot models of -
riew equipment and technol.ogy; c) scientific and Cechnieal producCion.prob-
lems of the m~ss disaeminaCion of ne.w equ3.pment and techtiology.
OF course~ the need of khe various types o� scientific atid technical pro-
E;rams for resources is diFferent in principle. For the ;Lmplementation of
prngrams of the flrst type skilled scientiats and experitnental facilities "
;~re neecied, Eor Che implementation of progr~zms of the aec:ond Cype deaign
atid plnnnin~ personnel and the capaciCies oF pi1oC plant:3 are also requir~d,
in the third case all resources, including capital invest:menta, are re-
quired in pr~r.tice. The scientific and Cechnical progranas of the latter
type are tt~e most effective ones, which are conducive to the acceleration
of scientific and technical progress.
t~ll programs, no matt~r what class and type they are aCt~-ibuCed Co, should ~
be diractional planning document and should form an initependent program-
goal section of Che plan, which is coordinated with its :3ecCorial and ter-
ritorial sections. The practice exists of including the requirements of -
programs in the corresponding sectorial and territorial F~arts of the five-
year plzns without ciistinguishing in the plan an indepencient program-goal
section. If the program assignmer~ts could be ensured wit:hin Che traditional
s~ructure of the plan, there would be no need to draft p~-ograms. In this
- case the res~urce-goal orientation of the plan and the possibili.Cy of en~
suring the priority of the programs disappear.
At present there are contradictions in the mechanism of coordinating the
resource-goal orienration of the plan with its sectorial breakdown. There-
forr. it is necessary to limit the number of problems, for which programs
are formulated, to the most important ones which do not yield to solution
by ti~e traditional method of planning. In this connectian the exisCence on
the national economic level of more than 200 scisntific and Cechr,ical pro-�
- ~rams is hardly ~ustified.
The point of view that goal programs shc;uld form a program breakdown of the
~ plan is now becoming generally recognized. However, in practice they are
st.[1.1 prepl~nning or "extraplan" document. The majority of the 11 goal
F~ro~;rams existing in the Latvian SSR were approved by the republic Council
uf Ministers with the instruction to the rep~:~lic planning organs to find _
in the five-year plan resources for their implementation. But the resources
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f~Ok U1~1~ I.C C~1L tiSl~.' ONi.,Y
w~~re no~ Eou~id ln thr. ti~~r.esyary ~~muuti~, so :it way necoss~ry Co m~ke substan-
ti,il changes in ~ ntunber c~f pro~ram~ aEter the; ~pprov~l of Che lOth Five-
Yec?r Plnn. Thur3, Che Latvian SSit Cc~spl~ln was iorced to sub3ecr to ad~usC-
men~ the compreheusl.ve pro~r~m aimed ~~t tlie increaye of the efficiency and
c~ur~lity of cons~r.ucCic~n,
'1'he luck oF ;i speci.nl ~~ro~ram brealcdown of thc p1~xn had ~he result thnt a
n~imber of sctecitiPi.c ar~d recttciic~l progr~~mv included in ttte SCate Five-Year
I~l~~?1 for 1976-1980 are no~ bein~; fu.Lly :tmplemenred. A check made by the
_ State Cc~nun.i.ttee fur Sc~t.ence aitd '1'eclinolagy showed thn~ ati ~he lower "stages"
ot p1~~tnning, in the miniytri.e~ and deparr~nents, a number of assignments ~
stenm~ing f.rom the jndicated pr~grams were not included in Cheir five--year
plans.2
Av is known, the sCeps on pr~~vi.dln~ the ~roIIrams with producCs being de-
vc'l.oped by the secror;~ ot thr. national economy and indusCry usually act as
" rneasurt~s .tn thc progra~,~::, In ~tiic very wr~y Che secCors are connected with
p~ir~ tc i.pat iuii .[n programs of ~~11 cl~isses. Ln addt.tional to the draftire
oE their own 1.r~terser.rorial. actd tnrrasectorial programs, they are suppliers
af. produc~s for pro~r~ms of tnter~tate, n~~tional economic and regional im-
porlsnce and 5u on, Tlie measures are at the meeting point of the programs
Wi t}~ khc resources.
- in r.he ciraftin~ af comprehensive goal Programs at the national economic
level thc~ stage of the measures of the indicated scheme by analogy with -
the goal one can be represented also in r_tle form of a tree of ineasures,
wl~ich is the .logical continuarian of the tree of goals and tasks and re-
pres~nCs a set oE act:tons which are interconnected for the fulfillment of
the n,enc~ral task. The construc~ion of the tree of ineasures and the draft-
in~; of tl~e program itself ~n this area enta:il particul~r difficulties. A~ -
the stage oE the elabur~tion ~f the measures an interweaving of. the ties
is founcl both within the sectors owing to the servicing of different pro-
gr;ims and between the associared sectors, which leads to the delay of the
introciuctton of ~~rogram-goal planning on the sector level.
'I'hc coordl.natSon of the ~;oal~ with the resources offers the greatest diffi- -
cultic~s. Adciitional difficutties of distributing resources between the de-
m1~id;; of the programs and the requirements of extraprogram development of
~h~ sectors, as we.il as of coordinating the resources among the individual
- i~r~~};r;ims ~lrise. l~or example, the program "The Ti?nber Resources of the
I,;itvia~~ SSR and Their Complete Use and Fteproduction" provides for the pro-
d~.iction ins[ead uf lumber of efficient lar~e-size building plywood, while
the program "The Increase of the Efficiency and Quality of Capital Construc-
tion" i.s cl.i.recred toward Che receipt of traditional materials.
bi:iny c~f tlie scientific and technt.cal programs in effect during the current
- Ctve-yerir plan are of an intersectorial nature, but ane (parent) sector is
_ [heir developer. It is hardly in a position to look into the question of
pr~viding producti.on resources even to that part of the program, which
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F'qlt ~~1~l~ICIAi~ U~~l? UNI,Y
r.o~~~~ici~; the obli~;~tions nE ~t~e parellt sector iCself, ~'recisely Che diffi-
r.ulete.i af co~rdiiiating the ~onls wirh the resources c~n tihe s~atior ie~~i
~,erve as the r~ss~~n for Che 'l.ack in the ~n~~or:tty nF scientific and Cechni-
_ cUl. pro~r,r~im:~ oF tlie st~~;e nt the mass introducCion o� scien~~.fic results
l.n ~~ruducki.on.
_ t~i or~er to ~~vercome ehese co?irradicCions when formulatl.ng the specific pro-
~;r~~�~ flr rtle stage of the elabor~~tinn o~ the measures, ehat is, at Che sec-
, ~ar level, it :is necess~ry Co derermine the pl~ce of tha secCor in the na-
tional economy, in the overall fl.ows of resources and producCs, rhe nature
of the participation of tt?e sector in Che program ,3nd the role in iCs im- ~
p l.ementa Cion .
l~rc~m the point oE v:iew o.r" program-goal plattning iC is poseible Co specify
the f.allowing functions ot each sector: 1) the fulfillment of Che orders
_ cltc�ecrly for ttie implemenC~tion of proEr~ms of the naCional econami~ level; ~
tt~c~ fulfi.llm~nt oE orders of other sectors, whjch are connected with the -
im~~.l.eoientaCion of natiunal economic programs; 3) the fulfi].lment of its own
t?~rrasecrorial programa; 4) r.he production of produ~Cs for meeting the
, exrraprogrum dema~ds of Che national economy (within the framework of the
_ tradition~nl princi.ples of pl~uning) .
'Cl~c~ 1lsted fun;.tions ~1re governed by Che nature of the interconnecCion be-
twei~n the sector and the acientifi.: and technical programs. In fulfilling
tlie national economic programs, in which Che given sector participates
dlrectly or indirectly, the assignments o� the sector can be expressed
_ either in an impersonal form or as separate subprograms. In the former
case ehe reyu.trements of the program are formulated outside the given sec-
tor. Tt~e order is included in the general plan (without a detailed de-
- scri{~tion af the characteristics), tha evaluation of the fulfillment of
w}~ic}i Is made uccording to Craditional indicators. In order to fulfill the
_ en~ire pl.zn, including the assignment "dissolved" in it, the appropriate
- departments elaborate the necessary measures. In the latter case the as-
signments oE the sector can tie express~d in the form of an integral com-
~~l.ete subprogram, which has been elaborated at all stages, including the
stage of ineasures, when along with the order for products (with the as-
til~,neci quantitative and qualitative characCeristics) the ways and means of
ensuring rheir production are outlined and set down, or in the form of an
orcier for products (also oE specific quantitative and qualitative character-
istics) outside the general progrAm. In this case the elabr,ration of the
measures on ensuring the production of these products rests on the corre-
spondin~; department. -
'I1~e general asstgnment of USSR Gosstroy on participation in the drafCing of
.1 program on the introduction of inethods and technical means for the build-
ir~g ~nd operation of_projects of the petroleum and gas industry under perma-
frost conclitions can serve as an example of the first form of assignment.
In this program it is not indicated what specifically Gosstroy should do.
The relatively specific assignments of the USSR Ministry of Ferrous
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~o~t orr~~LCiAL iJSIs ONI,Y
Metnl.lurgy on l�he ('.Xp~ttS'LOri of the v~riety of oil pipes, which are con-
t~i:tned in ane of the scienttFic and technical pro~t~ams of the petroleum ~.n-
ciuytry, cecl serve ~s an example of the second form. -
Civen ~11 the ��orme of the esl�abliahment of assignmenrs for sectors th~
- c~mplc~xLty o� their pl~nning, which con~ists above ~11 3n the sectorial
~iature of planning, is maintained, while the program is an tnstrument of
intersecCorial importance. The d~tssociatiott of the sectors does nuC make -
it possible to establish ~nll the ties and Co eusure the total coordination
_ of their activity. Therefore, it is more feasible to solve the ~roblems of
pro};ram-goal planning on the secror level wi~hin Che framework of intersec-
torlal complexes. Here it is necessary to differe n~iate two types of com-
plexes; permanent ones and sporadic ones.
Com~~lexes of the first ;:ype are consolidate.d, relatively isolated produc-
t:t.ons unirs of a number of sectors, which are 3nterconnecCed by permanent
- technolo~i.cal ~nd functional artribures. They are stable pro~ec~s of plan-
- titn~;. The composition of the complexes is determined by the similarity of
r.aw m~~ter:lals or the vicissitude of the manufacturing process, the purpose
~~E the products and so on, At the same time there aie no striet criteria
oF che ev~7lua~ion of the lntensity of the ties owing to their diversity.3
_ I~or some sect~rs it is comp~ratively easy to determine the closeness of the
_ ~ie, ror. exampley ~he production of consCruction materials, parts and ~ -
strur.tures is integrally firmly connected with construction, the timber in-
dustry--with the wood processing industry. Ar the same time in a number of
instance~ the ties do not appear that clearly, and the for.maCion of com-
E~lexes creates difficulttes. In spite of the inevitable conventionalities
- tn el~~ formation of complexes of the first type, their creation yields great
.idvwer l~vcle of th~ tree of gonls of tiie ext~rn~l or ~~ctorigl prngr~mg,
whcr~ choo~ing alternatives the following crie~r.in ~gn b~ ug~d wiCh ~lldwance
fc~r variou:s re~trictionH: the ma~cimum production volume of the prnducCS o~ -
_ cunstruction or of other gector~ directly connecCed wieh iC; Che minimum
l~vel of current production C09t5 of Che [lL'Ot~ilCCg nf Con~trucCinn or o~
otlier sectors directly connected witti it; the minimum 1~ve1 nf natinn~l
ecot~c~mic expenditures with allowattce for the opergtion nf regdy pro~ectg;
ttic~ minimu;n cotisumption of various resnurces. The propoged ligti of cri- -
teria docs not claim to be complete. 'Ihe divergity and cnmplexiCy nf the
prvgram ta~ks in the pra~~g~ of dr~~tin~ ehe prdgramg cnn cau~~ th~ adopeion
of ~ther crir.eria as well. Fiowever, it ig dbvinug that~ no m~tter at what
levels t}ie criterin are applied, tliey ghould have a genergl direction. '~he
making aC de~~isions in cottformity with these criteri~ should not contradict
the content of the goals of the ~pper level and, consequetttly, complicate
tl~E~ tmplem~ntation of the pro~rama.
tn ~~c,~i~iec~tion with the f~ct tha[ the program-goal appronch is cglled upon
tu rc~Elc~cr th~ inJi~r~tors di the pro3ect, which characterize the various
.~~~~ects oE development in the necessary ~nd most effecCive direction, it
is ex~~eclient for solving global problems to gingl~ out geveral blocks which
c�ovc~r individual section~ of the problem: scientific and technical, design,
procluction, economic and social. ~nch epecific block represents a separate
aspc~ct of the overnll tree of goals and includea sever;,~ levelg.
_ 1'hc~ main goals of the indicaeed blocks appe3r with respect to the entire
system .~s goals of a second order, but then the next levels of the goals, ~
ta~ks :~nd measures are formulated. In the formation of any construction
pr~~~ram in ti~e design block there can be set as one of the main goals the
~;oal Nitti tt~e following content--"The Improvement of Che Volume-Layout
S~lutions of Buildings and Structures," in the production block--"The Im- -
provement oE the Technology of Construction~ the Extension of Complete -
`lechaniza[ion and Automation." In turn, the latter can be broken doWn
tnto tnsks of smaller scale, such as "The Elaboration and Introduction
c~E ~fficient Methods of ~~riorming ~xcavation and ~arth Moving," "The In-
- trnduccian of tifficient Mechods of Working Permafrost Soiln" and so on. .
On~~ of th~~ nain gonls of the economic block can be expressed in the folloca-
tn~; m.~nner--"Assur~nce of the Fulfiilment of [he Set Taeks Without the Ad-
ditl~nal Involvemen[ of Manpower" or "The Reduction of the MaCerials-Output
- Rnti