NIE 11-8-65: SOVIET CAPABILITIES FOR STRATEGIC ATTACK

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: NGA Records (Formerly NIMA)
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP78T04759A000500010015-6
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 19
• Document Creation Date: December 28, 2016
• Document Release Date: October 23, 2003
• Sequence Number: 15
• Publication Date: June 23, 1965
• Content Type: MF

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C E N T R A L I N T E L L I G E N C E A G E N C Y
23 June 1865
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SUBJECT NIE 11-8-65: SOVIET CAPABILITIES FOR
STRATEGIC ATTACIL
2. Tt is requested that your representatives meet with us
at 1+00, Monday, 28 June, at CIA Headquarters, to discuss these terms.
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You are requested to call Extension 2 5X1A
~by 1~3p0, Monday, 28 June, giving er e nan~cs o yaur represanta-
tives and certifying the appropriate level of clearance. It is also
requested that your representatives enter thc: building at the
Main Entrance.
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USA (ACSI~
cc: Colonel
Captain
Colonel
~SN (ONI~
U$AF (AF'1VI~3B)
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Declass Review by o
GROUP 1
Excluded from automatic
T~=O-P S-E-C-R-E-T downgrading and
declassification
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C E N T R A L I N T E L L I G E N C E A G E T1 C Y
23 June 1865
SUk3~TECT: TERMS OF REFEREPICE: NIE 11-8-65: SOVIET CAPABILITIES
FOR STRI~.TEGIC ATTACK
To estimate the strength and capsbilities of Soviet strategic
attack forces through mid-19G7 and to estimate general trends in
these forces over the next decade or sa.
1. This all-source estimate iaill supersede NIE 13-8-6~+,
Soviet Capabilities for Strategic Attr~cl~, dated 8 October 196},
and the Memorandum to Holders of NiE 11-$-6~, dated 7 April 1965.
Contributions are due in ONE by close of business, Monday, 9 August.
They should be given simultaneous distribution to all interested
USIB a~rencics and cou~ittees.
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2. Like its predecessors, this estimate will be an all-
sauxce account of the current and future status of Soviet forces
for long-range attack, and of policy and doctrine for their use.
Contributors are requested to incorporate all available evidence
an each matter discussed into a single all-source document. Sources
should be identified by type and classification for guidance in
preparing a TOP SECRET version of the estimate. Contributors are
also requested to make a clear distinction between estimates which
can be supported with confidence on the basis of direct evidence
and those which cannot.
3. We plan to estimate detailed numerical strengths only to
mid-167, and deal with the period beyond primarily in terms of
force goals and trends. Detailed projections for later years will
be provided in the IAP. It will be Hated th~~t the proposed schedule
far completion of this estimate and Section I of the TAP requires
that the two papers be prepared concurrently. It is requested,
therefore, that GMAIC, JAEIC, and SIC include in their contributions
to 11-8 such additivnai material (particularly on future systems)
as may be required for an updating of those portions of Section I
of the IAP which lie within their respective jurisdictions. The
updating of the other partionsof Section I will be the subject of
supplemental terms of reference; the due date for these contributions
is tentatively set for 2-3 weeks after the due date for 1VIE Il-8
contributions.
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QUESTIONS BEARItdG ON THE PR0$LE3+~
I. TRENDS IN POLICY AND DOCTRINE EWER THE NEXT TEN YEARS
A. How do the Soviets conceive of the role of strategic
attack forces in relation to the broad objectives of their external
policy? Are there any indications of change in these viec?~s?
B. In the Soviet view what strategic purposes s.re to be
sowed by long-range striking forces?
retaliation:
C. Discuss the USSR's allocation of resources to the strategic
attack mission, and among weapon systems t?:ithin this mission. How
are general economic factors and the allocation of resources to
other military prograr.~s likely to affect Soviet programs for
stxta,tegic attack forces?
D. Discuss the possible effects on Soviet decisions of quanti-
tative and qualitative development of US and .other Western strategic
offensive and defensive capabilities.
E. What a,re taa.~ar technological factors which gill shape
Soviet strategic attack forces duxing this period? What technolo-
gical developments might lead to departures in general policies
and doctrine?
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F. Hozr do the Soviets probably vie#a their requirements for
strategic attack forces -- both qualitative and quantitative.
Taking account of technical and economic factors, discuss in
general terms the foxce goals and z:reapons mixes *,ri:ich they might
seek to meet these requirements, and the probable broad trends in
Soviet strategic attack forces aver the next ten years.
A. Hazy do the Soviets direct, control, and coordinate
the several elements of their strategic attack forces? What
are the mechanisms used to effect this control? What provisions
have been made to insure the survival of a command structure?
What fail-safe measures arc in effect?
B. Discuss the capabilities and weaknesses of the strategic
command structure. Of its commiunications systems. Whet develop-
ments can be expected?
C. Discuss the adequacy of Soviet target intelligence. How
.are ts.r~ets allocated among the various strategic attack forces?
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D. Discuss Soviet practices with respect to storage, logistics,
and control. of nuclear tae~apons and Choir effect on strategic attack
capabilities.
A. Discuss Soviet ICBM production, its location, scale,
and pace.
$. Descxibe current Soviet ICBM clepJ.oyment, ~xiving numbers,
t~rpes, a.nd operational status of confirmed complexes and launchers.
C. Briefly trace the course of Soviet TC~! deployment,
emphasizing developments over about the past year, and including:
1. Pace and extent of deployment by type.
2. Evidence of change or modification of existing sites.
3. Evidence of discontinuity or disruption in deployment
and. possible ex~:lanations therefor.
4.. Any further evidence relating to large, soft site
construction.
D. Assess the c~ua.lity of the evidence bearing on ICI
deployment in terms of coverage, timeliness, and reliability.
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1. Discuss and evaluate the evidence of additional IC~+4
deployment e.t other suitable locations. What is the
likelihood of such deployment?
2. Include a discussion of the passibility of deception
or concealment.
E. Discuss the available e~'idence relating to the hardening
of Soviet ICBM sites, including: site configuration and measurements;
structural features, e:.ternal and internal; the method of launchir~
missiles; contxol oi' launch groups.
1. Estimate the degree of hardening of Soviet hard
ICI~L sites of all types. Discuss the vulnerability
of Soviet hard sites to nuclear effects other than
overpressure.
IV. SOVIET ICS RESEARCH AND DEVEFAIfi~1T
A. Briefly describe developments over about the past year in
the expansion or modification of facilities on the Tyuratem test
range, relFiting where possible to ICffi~1 systems development.
B. Briefly discuss ICS! develop~aent programs at Tyuratam
in terms of scale, intensity, duration, and success, emphasizing
events of the past year.
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C. Discuss the ICBMs sho~,~n in the Moscot~r V-E Day parade and
relate to developments on the test range or at operation~~.l complexes.
Dods this or other evidence indicate the development of new systems
~:~hich have not yet reached flight testing?
D. Discuss other R and D activities vrtlich may relate to the
ICBM progrrym -- in particular, any solid propellant or large
booster development.
E. Estimate chsracteristics for the SS-10, and discuss its
probable role in the ICBM program.
F. Estimate characteristics and IOC dates for the newer
systems -- i.e. those in an earlier stage of development than the SS-10.
G. ir~iat system is intended for deployment in the large silos?
In the small silos? At Plesetsk?
H. Discuss probable trends itx ICBM! develop;~ent ovEr the
c~e~~t 'ten years, iucludiiZg likel;;- near s~fu?te~as and the poesiUle
~.odificatio~~ or it~l~rovement of existing systems.
V. ESTIMATED SOVIET ICI CAPABILITIES
A. Estimate Soviet strength in operational TC~+'! launchers
from mid-1;65 through mid-1967, distinguishing ICBM systems deployed
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and hard. and. soft launchers. Consider in this connection the
operational status of Tyuratam launchers and their possible use
as part of the operational force.
B. Assess the operational capabilities of the current Soviet
1. Readiness, reaction time, and. refire capability.
2. Reliability.
3. ~.ccuracy .
~. Survivability.
5. Nuclear payloads.
6. Penetration aids and multiple warheads.
7. Crew training and proficiency.
8. Support -- communications, logistics, maintenance,
xepair cycles.
C. Discuss improvements in these capabilities likely to
occur over the next ten years.
D. Considering probable Soviet force goals, discuss trends
in ICBM deployment over the next 10 years. Describe in general
terms the probable composition of the Soviet ICBM force in 1970
and 1875. Use ranges or alternatives as appropriate.
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VI. SOVIET MRBMfIRBM PROGRAMS
A. The general c~uestians posed above for IC~t programs are
applicable. Thus contributions are recruested on the foliot~~.ng
subjects:
1. MRffi~I~IRBM deployment -- pace and extent of these
programs, systems and configurations deployed, current
confirmed deployment.
2. MRBM`IR~'t production.
3. Chaxacteristics of hard sites.
zE. C~uality of evidence -- possibility of deception or
conc ealanent .
5. A'IRBM~IRBNS research and development -- test range
activity, other related R and D activity, evidence
of follow-on systems or of modifications to existing
systems.
6. Estimated characteristics and IOC dates of follow-
on systems.
7. Estimated MRBtd,/IRPM force mid-1965 to mid-1967.
8. Operational capabilities of the current force and
future improvements.
9. Probable: MR&~i~IR~'i force goals and estimated trends
in deployment over the next ten years.
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B. In addition, contributors should consider certs~in ruestians
associated primarily with MRBI~is~IRBMs, including:
1. Estimoted characteristics ~znd operational status
of s.carrxp missile shown in Mascaar V-E Day parade.
2. Implications of development and deployment of salid-
fueled MRBNd~IR~l. Of mobile systems.
3. Si~ificanee of the. s,bandonment of seme P+~l~IRB'M sites.
~a. Recent evidence an the development and use of fixed
field sites; apparent purpose of these sites; probable
future developments.
5. Target coverage in Eurasia.
6. Possible effects of political developments, parti-
cularly, the Sino-Soviet dispute, on MftBf'i~IRBM
deployment.
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VIT. S'U.EI~lLR~~'E LA't7TICfiEb MISSILE SYaTEi~SS~
~.. Disouss the several m3.asile submarine deploy lent programs
including:
1. Types of ballistic and exu~.se missile submarines
now operations]. and their deployment.
~. Evidence on their de~felopment and. SOC dates -
~. The apparent missions of the seven-~.1. s~ubmarine~
missile systen.s.
B. Evaluate xecent trends in the missile submarine force,
with particular attention to:
1. Th.e co~zstruction of nuclear vs. diesel-powered
submarines.
2. The construction of ba].3.istic vs. cruise missile
submarines .
3. Changes in geoF~raphic distribution by fleet area.
It is requested. thmt SIC obtain the participation of NPIC
(includ.ing PID and PAG}, IIRTSC, and D~ in greparing its
contribution oil missile submarine chaz^a,cteristies.
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~. Discusa tl~e evidence of missile submarine production
including:
1. Production capacity of Soviet shipyards and
percentage of this capacity being used.
2. Possible limiting factors -- reactor or other.
component production, Nuclear technology, stainless
steel. supplies, hull plate fabrication equipment, etc.
3. Status of conversion prograu~s.
D. Estimate characteristics for missile systems presently
employed in Soviet submarines.
difficulties ~~rith these systems2
Ts there any evidence of Soviet
E. Discuss recent research a.~d deveiupment activity relating
to nissile subn~.rine systems including:
1.
Status of Serb and Sark.
2.
Test range t~etivity.
3.
Evidence of new submerged-launch systems.
Of .
solid. propellant developments. Of longer range
steris
s
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y
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Status of large new submarine estimated. to be a.
b?~1listic missile type.
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5. Suppvr'~ing scientific research -- oceanography,
acoustics, hull design, etc.
F. Estit~ra.te clzaracterietics aazd IOC dstes for new missile
submarine systems.
G. In the light of estimated Soviet de*~elopment, prad.uction,
and deployment capabilities, esti-nate numbers and types of Soviet
missile submarines far the period. to mid-lg6?.
H. ~~Jhat is the probable Soviet view of their requirement --
bath qualitative ax-d quar_titative -- far missile submarines for
strategic tzttaclt against US and Eurasisx3. targets?
I. Cansiderir~ probable force goals, estimate trends in
the Soviet missile submarine forces avQr the next ten years.
J. Discuss operational eh~zracteristics oi' the Soviet missile
submarine farce and probable future developments. Include i~n. this
discussion;
~.. Missile submarine aperstions -- operational areas,
frequency of patrols, evidence on ezzdurr-zannce, anal
reliability.
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2. Readiness of the force -- repair cycles for missile
submarines.
3? Subrvzrine base and repair Facilities -- mobile and
dispersed bases, submarine pens, the submarine
auxiliary fleet, resupply capabilities.
/+. Manning requirements, trs.ining facilities, quality
of the crews.
S . Commux~icat ions .
6. Noise propa{~ation characteristics.
7. Other equipc-.ent characteristics which may affect
operations -- air scrubbers, water distillers,
propulsion systems, navigational equipment,
sensors, etc.
A. Describe the present sine, composition, and. basing of
Soviet Long-$ax~e aviation.
H. Discues the.ma~jor missions including a consideration of:
1. Geo{rrsphic d.iaposition.
2. 1lxctic exercises -- numbers and types of aircrsS't
involved, unit designa,tiona.
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3. Extent of Long-Range bomber participation in
naval operations.
~-. Other training activity.
5. Tinplicatians of the probable transfer of heavy
bombers to Naval Aviation.
6. Operational doctrine, Particularly with respect to
stand.-off missiles and low aJ..titude flfglit profiles.
C. Estimate perPorruance characteristics far current aircraft
types and airborne weapons.
D. Estimate current Soviet production of long-range bombers.
Discuss the evidence of modernization and. conversion programs.
What is the autloolc for such prog~nis?
E. Discuss the evidence of Soviet research and development
on fallow-on long-range barbers and an advanced .~~, and
estivate the likelihood., nature, at~d SOC dates of such systems.
F. Estivate the size and. composition of Soviet ],ong?-Range
Aviation. for the period ttr~i c'+. --1965 to mid -1967.
G. How do the Soviets probably zriew theix requirements far
long-range bombers. Ccuasidering probable farce goalx, estimate
trends in Soviet Lang Range Aviation aver the next ten years.
Describe in general terms the probable composition of the farce
in 1970 and 1975.
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H. Discuss operational characteristics of the current force
and probable ft:ture developments including:
1. Adequacy of trainir~3 and. genera]. level of profieiency~
including in-flight refueling.
2. Alert proceduxes and operational readiness.
3. LR1! Izome base facilities -- .maintenance and supply
capabilitiea -- repair cycles.
~+. Capabilities of Arctic bases to support staging
operations -- POL storages, navi,gatiozzal aids, base
capacity, supporting i'acilitiess usage by elements
of LRA
~. Communications.
6. I3avigational equi~ent.
7. ECM equipment and. penetration aids.
I. Canaiderirg the size, campasitio2i and operational
ch,arecter3stics of the i'orce and traira,iiag patters, estimate
present IrRA capabilities againnt the cor_tinentml tTS, North 1!~Zerica,
and. Eurasia.
J. Discuss probable chsnges i~~ capabilities, mission, and.
disposition as the period. progresses
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IX. OTHER STRATF7GIC ATTACK CAP~RTT,~g
A? 2~ there any evidence vrizieh would. change the conclusions
on apace ~aeapona syst~.s in I~a,3-sgY`sl~,s 6~-68 of IJIE 11-1-65?
B? Is there any' evidence affecting the conclusions on the
strategic use of biological weapons in IVIE Ll-b-6~+?
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