JPRS ID: 9777 WORLDWIDE REPORT NARCOTICS AND DANGEROUS DRUGS

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- JPRS L/ 10039
~ October 1981
USSR Re ort
p
- HUMAN RESOURCES
(FOl~O 6/81)
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JPRS I,/10039
8 October 1981
USSR REPORT
NUMAN RESOURCES
( FOUO 6/ 81)
CONTENTS
DEMOGRAPHY
- Bilingualism in Corimiunity of Soviet Nations
_ (M. N. Rutkevich; ISTOFtIYA SSSR, Jul-Aug 81) 1
Population Dynamics of Siberian Territorial-Production Comp~exes
(V. I. Chudnova; GEOGRAFIYA I PRIRODNYYE RESURSY, Apr-Jun 81). llt
- - a - [III - USSR - 38c k'OUO]
~no nc~r~r. T~ rcF nrrT v
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DEMOG:Q.APHY
_ BILINGUALISM IN COMMlJNITY OF SOVIET NATIONS
_ Moscow ISTORIYA SSSR in Russian No 4, Jul-Aug 81 pp 22-32
/Article by Corresponding Member of the USSR Academy cf Sciences M.. N. Rutk~vich:
"Bilingualism Is an Important Factor of the Development of the New Eiistorical
Community"/
/Text/ In the documents of the 26th CPSU Congress t~ie task of broadeni.zg the
srudies on theoretical problems of mature socialism is set as one of the most im-
portant t~sks in the area of the social sciences.l
At the 25th CPSU Congress it was noted that "the indiss~luble alliance of the work-
- ing class, the gea~antry and the intelligentsia with the leading role of the work-
- ing class, the friendship of all the nations and nationalities of the country is"
the basis for the new historical community of people--the Soviet people.2
Thus, the Soviet people have two inseparably interconnected attrioutes. First,
there is the new social community which is characteristic only of socialism and in
which there are no ruling, exploiting classes. The soc~alist community at the
stage of maturity ccnsists e~itirely of friendly class:s and social groups, which
base their labor on the public ownership of the mP~~is of production and are dis-
tinguished by t'~e unity of basic economic and ~~litical interests. Second, there
is the new interna~{~nal community which characteristic only of socialism in a
multinational country at~u W??icn there are no ruling nations . The Soviet people
- cons~st of tens of socialist nations, as well as nationalities and ethnic groups,
and are distinguisYied by the unity of the basic economic and political interests of
ttiese nations, nationalities, groups and all the Soviet people.
- 't3oth the social unity, that is, the friendly alliance of classes, social groups and
- strata, and the international unity, that is, the friendship of the peoples of the
USSR, are manifested in all spheres of public life: economics, politics, ideology
and culture. We stress the indicated circumstance because the interpretation of
the new social community only as a sociopolitical community is encountered at times
in Soviet scientific literature.3 In our opinion, the social community is a socio-
- political community to the same extent that it is a socio-economic and sociocul-
tural communie.y.
Under the co.nditionc of mature socialism the political alliance of the three main
_ social forces wi~h the leading role of the worlcing class expresses in concentrated
forM the community of their economic interesCs, which is determined by their place
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in the sys~em of pr.oduction relatione. The community of ob~ective interests and
political goals finda its reflection in the sphere of ideology as t:~e realization
of the social unity of Soviet society in political views, the norms of morals,
_ world outlook and so on, as well as in the social psychological sphere.
The Soviet people as a multinational community, which wae formed on the basis of the
friendship of peoples, have a number of attributes which are characteristic of eth-
nic couununities of various types: the tribe, the nationality, the bourgeois nation,
the socialist nation, such as the community of territory, economic life and culture.
The unity of the economic and political interests of all the peoples of the coun-
try, who are making their contribution to the functioning and devel~pment of the
unified national economic complex with the intensifying division of labor among re-
publics and regions, nations and nationalities, is reflected in the social consci-
- ousness of Soviet people. The community of economic life--such is the objective
basis of political unity, the highest embodiment of which is the atate unity of the
USSR. Thus, the dialectics of the interrelationship of the economic, political and
- cultural ideological factors in the development of the Soviet people should be re-
garded simultaneously in the social and international aspecL-s, which also interact
dialectically.
Language is the most important means of communication of people. The community of
language is a mandatory attribute of ethnic communities, including nations.
Let us emphasize first of all the need for a historical approach.. The dEVelopment
of a unified national language was, as a rule, a v~ry lengthy process, which took
place at the same tim~ as the development of nations and often continued within ar-
ready formed nations. Among many nations, moreover developed nations, it has not
been completed even in our times. The causes of this phenomena are varied. In some
instances this is explained by the fact that an indigenous population, which has not
rejected completely its native language, which has historical traditions, at times
_ a system of writing and a literature, but is now used primarily in daily life, lives
on a certain portion of the territory of the natian. Such is the situation with
Provencal and Breton in France. In othPr instances the incompleteness of this
process stems from the ethnic heter~geneity of imm.igration. Thus, in the formation
of the North American nation the waves of immigrants from Europe (and then Asia and
Latin America), whtch superseded each other during the 19th and 20th centuries,
were gradually assimilated by the Engli~h-speaking nucleus, which formed back in
the 18th century. However, even today bilingualism, that is, the speaking of two
languages--the "state" language, English, and one's "own," native language, occurs
in the United States.
- It is possible to ~udge the degree of assimilation of emigrants to the United States
from the following data of American statistics. tn 1977 of the 199,310,000 people
4 years of age and older 15,354,000, that is, 7.7 percent, spoke English and some
other language. However, of this number only 6,389,000 usually use the other lan-
guage; for 8,965,000 En~lish is the customary, that 3.s, primary language. And, fur-
ther, of the indicated 6,389,000 only 42.1 percent, that is, approximately
, 2,690,000, experience difficulties with English. Thus, only 1.3 percent of the
_ U.S. population have not fully mastered English--they are almost entirely first-
- generation emigrants, in the overwhelming ma3ority (1,780,000) people who have come
- from the countries of Latin America.4
2
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A historical approach is also needed in another respect. In exploitative multir~a-
tional states the problem of the t/state" language, which was used nc~t only for the
purposes of government, ensuring the political dominatian of a specific nation (na-
tionality), but also for the purposes of economic and cultural exchange, arose re-
peatedly both in the past and in our times.
A~ is known, the many centuries of domination of the Romans led to the dissemination
of Latin, which in a number of areas of the Roman Empire was used in the beginning
along with the local langLag~s, but later became the basis of a number of modern
Romance languages (Italian, French, Spanish, Portuguese, Romanian).
- The conquests undertaken by the Arabs in the Middle Ages led in a number of coun--
tries of the Near East and Northern Africa to the complete supplanting of the local
languages, in some this process has not been completed (the Berbera in Algeria and
others).
The languages of the European conquerora, who founded colonial empires, in a number
of regions supplanted the local languages. That is the situation in Latin America
where, however, a portion of the indigenous Indian population (the Quechua in Peru
and others) was able to preserve its language. In Africa and Asia English, FrPnch
and Portuguese functioned in the colonies along with the local languages. And now,
when after World War II the colonial empires have declined under the blows of the .
~ national liberation movement, the "state" language of the former colonial power
still plays a certain role. As the result of the multinational composftion of the
population of the freed ststes, as in India, or the multitribal composition, as in
a number of countries of Africa, in most cases it continues to remain the "state"
language, in some cases sharing this function with the most prevalent local lan--
guage (Hindi in India, Swahili in Tanzania and so on).
The Aussian Empire, which graclually formed on the basis of the Russian national
state, was distinguished from the colonial empires, which were created by the naval
powers, by two essential features. First, it was a single territorial block which
- embraced the entire northern part of Eurasia, one-sixth of the dry land. On this
truly boundless tQrritory the Russians along with the Ukrainians and Belorussians,
who are close to them in language and culture, owing to the unity of origin, ma.de
up seven-tenths of the total population. The East Slavs in the couxse of_ a mil-
~ lennium settled the European North~ the Cis-Ural region, the Urals~ Siberia, the
Far East, the southern and, in part, the Kazakh steppes, mi.xed with the people who
had previously settled these expanaes, and by the time of the October Revolution
had partially assimilated them. Second, the cruel national oppression, to which
the non-Russian people were sub~e%:ted on the part of landowners, merchants and capi-
talists of the ruling nation, c:~uld not prevent the convergence of the working
classes, that is, the bulk of the peoples of Russia. Not only the reunification
_ in a single state of the fraternal Russian, Ukrainian and Belorussian peoples,
bu= also the entry into the Russian centralized state of.many other nationalities
we~e of extremely progressive historical importance. It created the conditions
for the emergence and strengthening of the alliance of the workers of different
peoples in the liberation struggle against the expl.oiting classes. The leading
role in this alliance belonged to the progressive social forces of the Russian
nation,
- In Russia before the revolution a number of bourgeois nations formed. Among tens
of nationalities this process was not completed. But already by that time, as a
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result of the requirements of economic development, national-Russian bilingualism
had spread to a certain extent, although the forced spreading of Russian and the
assimilation policy, which were pursued by tsarism, hindered this ob3ective process.
_ At the proletarian stage u~ the liberation movement, starting in the late 19th cen-
tury, the combinarion of cruel cyass and national oppression in its most diverse
forms broughr. zbout the nation.al liberation movement of the peoples of the outlying
regions, the allies of the Russian working classes in the revolutionary struggle
a~ainst the ~utocracy. The leading and guiding force of tt:e working class move-
ment--the Bolshevik Paxty founded by V. I. Lenin--proclaimed as its goal the com-
plete liberation of all the peoples of Russia from social and national appression,
the gr3nting to them of the right to self-determination, up to seccession and the
forination of an independent state. At the same t~me, while consiatently implement-
_ ing tiie principle of proletarian internationaliam, the party envisaged not only the
pcasibility, but also the desirability of pregervin$ state unity on a vol.untary
basis with the establishment of the complete equallty of peoplea.
The social liberation 3chieved in October 1917 truly opened the way for the complete
~ elimination of national oppression and inequality in all its forms. In our country
socialism was built for the first time in the world, the prediction of K. Marx and
F. Engels: "Along with the antag~nism of clasaes within nations the hostile rela-
tions of nations with each other will also disappear,"5 was transformed into
reality for the first time.
The accomplishment of this world historical task in a~igantic country, in which
more than 100 nations, nationalities and ethnic groups lived together, was compli-
cated by the fact that the regions and peoples of Russia by the time of the October
Revolution were at the most diverse stages of historical development: from a com-
munal system to developed capitalism.
The building of socialism in the USSR signified the radical transformation of the
_ social class structure of society. The social nature of the working class, the
peasantry and the intelligentsia changed. For the peoplea who had not passed
through the stage of capitalism (and in some inetances the etage of a class antagon--
istic society in general), the transitiun to aocialism ~ignified that transformation
of society, in caee of which the kolkhoz peasantry was formed directly on the basis
of tribal society with the gradual isolation from irs midat of thp working class
and the intelligentsia social groups which were socialist in their nature.
The rapid transformation of social relationa in the outlying regions of the country
' was impossible without a development of their economy and culture, which led the
~ central regions in pace. Th~ legal equality of the peoplea, which was proclaimed
after October and was consolidated by the creation of the USSR~ became actual
equ~lity owing to the assistance which was given to the nations and nationalities,
which had been oppresaed in the past, on the part of the more developed peoples
and first of all on the part of the Rusaian people and their working class.
Such are the hiatorical prerequiaites, which had formed by the late 1930's and cre-
ated the immediate basis for the formation of the Soviet people as a new social
community and at the same an international community.
The most difficult ordeals of the period of World War II promoted the further uni-
fication of all the nationa and nationalities of the USSR around the Russian people,
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_ who bore on their should~rs the main burden of the struggle against the invaders at
_ the front and in the rear. On the other hand, the reunif ication of the Ukrainians
and Belorussians in 1939-1945 and the restoration of Soviet power in the Baltic re-
publics and Bessarabia enlarged the family of Soviet peoples and required the solu-
tion of many sociaZ and natior~aa, queations.
That is why the assertions, whicn are encountered at times, that the Soviet people
formed as a new historica.l community in the 1930's or even the 1950's, seem un~usti-
fied to us, since all the complexity of the historical process is not fully taken
into account in them.
The notion of the Soviet people as a fundamentally new historical community of
people became firmly established in the late 1960's. This, too, in our opinion,
did not coincide by chance with the advancement of the thesis, which substantially
enriched Marxist-Leniniet theory, that the USSR had entered the stage of a mature
socialist society. Under present conditions the development of the entire set of
social relaticns of socialism is taking place on its own, collectivistic basis. The
process of the consolidation of the Soviet people as an economic, political and c:ul-
tural community of people is continuing. And in this process the further spread of
the language of international ^onununication, which the Russian language has histori-
cally become, is an important factor.
After the October Revolution this process accelerated and acquired qualitatively
new traits. First, the extenaion of the use of the language of international com-
munication is taking place in the USSR at the same time as the flourishing of na-
- tional languages and national culture, enrir_hing the language and culture of each
Soviet naticn and nationality. Second, this process is based on complete voluntari-
ness. In the CPSU Program adopted in 1961 it was noted: "The process taking place
in life of the voluntary study, along with one's native lan~uage, of the Russian
language is of positive importance, since this is conducive to the mutual sharing
of experience and the familiarization of each nation and nationality with the cul-
tural achievements of all the peoples of the USSR and with world culture."6 The
CPSU has always proceeded and is proceeding from Lenin's statement of the issue:
. we "insist that every inhabitant of Russia would have the opportunity to study the
Great Russian lan~uage. We do not want but one thing: the element nf /compulsori-
ness/ /in italics/."~
How far has this process advanced? Are there sufficient grounds to consider the
existence of an international language one of the attributes of the historical com-
munity in question?
L. I. Brezhnev noted in 1972: "Under the conditions of mature socialism the Russian
lan~uage /has already become the language of mutual intercourse of all the nations
and nationalities of the Soviet Union/ /emphasized by interspacin~7."8 This author-
itative statement provides an affirmative responae to the question posed above. It
is clear that at this moment not all USSR citizens without exception spaak Russian
fluently, that the process of learning it as a second language has not been accom-
plished in full among all the Soviet peoples. Processes of this sort, as the ex-
perience of the formation of nations in general attests, requires some time--if only
- because the second language is learned by the bulk of the people usually in child-
hood and youth, while the change~of generation~ takes decades. It is important to
note that at the stage of .mature socialism the process of learning Russian is
, accelerating owing to the intensive increase of economic and cultural exchange
- 5
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between regions, the rapid development of the means of maea communication, especialW
ly radio and television~ the implementation of a universal secondary education and
the increase of migration flows and tourism.
So far considerable work has been done on the study of the process of the spread of
the Russian language and its influence on the languages of the peoples of the USSR.
The results of empirical studies and interesting attempta at thPOretical general.iza-
_ tions are contained in a n.umber of ecientific worka of historians, ethnographers,
linguists and sociologists.9
While~referring the reader to these works, we want to make heze ~n addition a co,m~
_ parative analysis of the results of the 1959, 1970 and 1979 censu~es.
The changes which occurred in the spread of the Russian language by the late 1970's
;~ave been ref.lected in Table 1. In 20 yeara, in spite of the sligh,t decrease of
the proportion of RUSSians in the population of the country (by 2.2 p~rcent, a.$ a
result of the comparatively low birth rate), the percentage of peogle speaking Rus-
sian fluently (as a native and second language) steadily increased.
Table 1
- Spread of the Russian Language in the USSR
1959 1970 197'9
millions percent ~illions percent millions Percent
- of people of people of people_
Total population 208.8 100.0 241,Z 100.0 262.i 100.0
including:
Russians 114.1 54.6 129.0 53.4 137.4 52.4
- people of non-
Russian nationali-
ty, for whom Rus-
sian is their na-
*_ive language 10.0 4.8 12.8 5.3 ].6.1 6.1
speak Russian flu-
_ ently as a second
language 23.7 11.4* 41.9 17-.3 61.3 23.4
Total who speak
Russian fluently 147.8 70.8 183.7 75.0 214.8 81.9
*
The estimate of the 1959 cenaus for this item was obtained by the author by extra-
polation of t~e procesa in retrospection. .
In order to create a more complete picture it is necessary to take into account the
entire set of circumstances, which both are establiahed by the census and are not
established by it.* First of all, to the questio~n about "fluency in Russ~an" the
J 'k
Strictly speaking, it is impossible to confine ourselves to the examination of
only the data of censuses, since censuses cko not always give a direct answer to
questions which are of interest to the r~searcher. It is necessary to eMlist the
~ata of current statistical reporting and concrete sociological studies.
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people being surveyed often give an inadequate response: some people, who know the
language well, answer it negatively, and vice versa. The distinction of different
- degrees of fluency in the second language is necessary. The diffe~entiation ~f
thought and psychology, language and speech can serve as the theoretical basis of
such a distinction. Therefore specialists usually differentiate three things:
1) linguistir. competence (the degree of fluency in any of the languages); 2) speech
activity (the frequency of use of each of the languages in different situations);
3) linguistic orientation (the social psychological orientation toward the use of
each of. the languages or, in other words, the psychological ~~titude in relation to
tr;e language and its use for the purposes of communication).
Simpler gradations are usually used in empirical studies. For example, when con-
ducting a survey in Moldavia the following degrees of fluency of the Moldavian popu-
lation in Russian were distinguished: "I think in Russian"; "I think in Moldavian,
but speak Russian fluently"; "I speak Russian with some difficulties"; "I do not
speak it." Other approaches, of course, are also possible, but the overall conclu-
sion from the set of sociological studies of bilingualism is unquestionable: /a
considerably larger number/ /efiphasized by interspacin$7 of representatives of the
indigenous nationalities in the republics understand Ruesian and speak it to a cer-
tain degree, which is sufficient to read a newspaper, understand the content of
radio and television, converse on Everyday themes and so on, than is established
on the census sheets. For example, according to the 1970 census, 45.2 percent of
the Latvians l~.ving in the territory of Latvia speak Russian fluentl~; according
to the data of concrete sociological studies, about 80 percent of the Latvians
speak the language oi inte~national communication (at a varying level of its knowl-
edge), while in some socio-occupational and demographic groups nearly 100 percent
30.11 This is especially characteristic of the urban population, which ts more
mixed in national composition, According to the data of a comprehensive study of
the Institute of Ettinography of the USSR Academy of Sciences, 87.6 percent of ~he
Tatars of Kazan'--practically the entire able-bodied population--speak Russian.12
In this connection we shot~lc~ especially speak about Ukrainians and Belorussians.
As a result of the closeness of the East Slavic languages.and the activeness of the
intercourse between the three fraternal peoples, in our opinion, it is possible to
consider as already rea.li.zed the prediction made in 1913 by V. I. Lenin: "more
than seven-tenths of the population of Russia belongs to kindred Slavic tribes,
who with freQ sch~ol in a free state would easily obtain, owing to the requirements
of economic circulation, the opportunity to come to an agreement without any
'state' privileges to one of the languages."13
- Let us try to represent this general conclusion in numerical terms on the basis of
the data of the last two censuses. In 1970 85.7 percent of the Ukrainians indi-
~ cated Ukrairiian as their native language (it can be assumed that for the remaining
14.3 percent Russian is thsir native language, although in a few instances it might
be Polish, Belorussian and so on), and, moreover, 36.3 percent noted that they were
fluent in Russian. In all 49.4 percent of the Ukrainians did not belong to these
categories, whi~ch amounts to 20.1 million people. A aimilar calculation for the
- Belorussian population provides 17.2 percent or 1.6 mi:Llion people. In all
21.7 million people did not indicate that they spoke Russian fluently, but in prac-
, tice they know it to a degree sufficient for communication. If we add their number
to 183.7 million (see Table 1), we will cbtain 205.4 million, that is, 85 percent
of the population of the country in 1970.
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= For 1979 the similar calculationa of the people, who did not indicate that t~aey
spoke Russian fluently, yield respectively 33 percent of the Ukrainlan population
and 17.2 percent of the Belorussian population, tY~at is, 14 million and 1.6 millio.~n
people. As a result this comes to 15.6 million people--data whiclz were not in-
cluded in Table 1. Adding this figure to 214.8 million peopl.e (see Table 1), we
will obtain 230.4 million people, that is, 87.9 percent of the F~opulation of the
USSR in 1979.14
It is more difficult to give an accurate quantitative appraisal of the phenomenon
noted above for the other nationalities. For this it would be necessary, first,, Co
estimate the number of those who know Rusaian (but have not mastered it) among, the
representatives of the indigenous popui.~tion of the union and autonomous repab~.ics,
especially city resider.ts. Second, it would be necessary to appraise quantita~tive-
ly the knowledge of Russian in practice by nearly all the representati~es af ~k~ose
nationalities which have been settled apart entirely (or for their rnos~t p~rt) aaver
the entire territory of the country. Such is the situation with Gert~3ns, Po~es
(except some regions adjacent to Poland), Jews, Bulgariana, Koreans and ~o o~, To
a certain extent this also applies to the Armenian population; in 1970 3~ percent
of the Armenians and in 1979 34.4 percent lived outside the terYitory of the
Armenian SSR.15 For some nationalities the method described above i~s q~.iite admis-
sible for such a calculation. Thus, in 1970 85 percent of the Bul.gatian papula-
tion living in the USSR named Russian as their native language or nuted t.i~at they
spoke it fluently; thus, 15 percent (about 50,000 people) did nvt beb~ng to both
of these categories; in 1979 these people already made up 10 percent of the total
number of Bulgarians in the USSR. But practically a~l the Bulgar::a~s ~.iving per-
manently in our country understand Russian. It is also possibl~e to mak,= simi].ar
calculations for the other nationalities which are dispersed ir~ varic~us regions of
the country.
If we take into account both things indicated above and appraise them approximately,
the following conclusion seems reliable: /on the threshold of the 1980's more than
eight-tenths of the population of the USSR has a command of Russian to a deg_ree
which as a whole is sufficient for international communicatlon/ /in italics/. And
this means that the existence of a common language (either as the native language
or as the second language) has already become an attribute of the new historical
- community of people--the Soviet people. But what has been said--and this has al-
, ready been stressed by us--must not be interpreted in the sense that this attribute
of the new historical community of people has formed absolutely, completely.
"The dynamics of the development of such a large multinational state as our state
~ gYVes rise to many problems which require the sensitive attention of the party,"
L. I. Brezhnev said in a report at the 26th CPSU Congress. In the report it was
also noted that "in recent years in e number of republics the number ef citizens of
the nonindigenous nationalities has increased considerably."16 The indicated fac-
tor is conducive to the intensification of international intercourse, and therefore
to the increase of the use of Russian. But the still unsolved problems require so
much more attention. One of them consists in the inadequate mastering of Russian by
the young generation while atudying in school. In this connection it is expPdient
to recall how this question was posed bac~. in the later 1930's, that is, during the
period when the tasl.c of implementing a universal incomplete secondary education
arose. At that time it was decided that "The students who have graduated from the
incomplete secondary school (the seventh grade) should know how to express their
thoughts fluently and correctly in Russian both orally and i:i writing...."17
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More than 40 years have passed sinc~ that time and in the USSR the next landmark
task--the acquisition by all young people of a complete secondary euucation--has
basically been accomplishe_ ~n the USSR. In 1'~i7 more than 98 percent of the gradu-
ates of the eighth grade continued their stud~.es at a secondary school and ~t other
, educational institutions giving a secondary e~3ucation.18 The universal secondary
education of the young generation has beeiz implemented in all the union and autono-
. mous r~publics. The remaining differences ir.i the number of people who have a com-
: plete and incomplete secondar.y education (for the USSR on the average 663 per
- 1,000 people over the age of lOt with the minimum figures for Lithuanian--558, and
_ the maximum figures fcr Armeni3--731)19 are formed due to people of older ages.
However, so far in m~ny national schools, e3pecially in rural areas, the instruc-
tion in Russia.t has been arganized unsatisfactorilq. As a rest~lt the ~ncrease of
the proportion of people who spean ~2ussian fluently in a number of republics lags
, significantly behind the increase of the aeneral educational l.evel of the population.
The comparative data of the 19~0 and 1979 censuses by regians are cited in Table 2.
As the cited dat3 attest, during the 1970's the increase of the proportion of the
population speakii~~; n~~~ ~an fluently (as the main or the second lar_g~iag~) is char-
acteristic of all the indigenc~u~ natior~alities (except Estonians} sahich l~.ve on the
_ territory of the union and autonomous republics. Especially ~significant changes
occurred during this decade in Uzbekistan. In the autonomous republics, which are
located in the cF.ntral part of Russia and are distinguished by a m~.xed composition
of the gop~ilation, 7-9 ou~ of every 10 representatives of the indigenous nationali-
ties speak Russi~an fluenr_~ly; it should be added ~hat among the urban population
practically everyone does. The process of the emergence of national-Russ:tan bilin-
gualism among t_hese nations is coming to an end.
At F,resent approximate~y 5 out of 10 representatives of the indigenous nationalities,
which live in the union republics of the Soviet Baltic region, 4 out of 10 in the
republics of Central Asia and 3 out of 10 in the republics of Transcaucasia note on
the census sheets that they speak Russian fluently.
The question of the increasing importance of the mastery of Russian for the solu-
tion of econom.ic and political probiems and the education of all citi2ens in the
spirit of proletarian internationalism is ~ustly posed in the documents of the
Central Committee:~ of the Communist Parties of the union rep~blics and in the~
~ speeches of their executives. First Secretary of the Central Committee of the Com-
munist Party of GE.orgia E. A. Shevardnadze says: "In our republic we pose tht~
question as follo~as: alon.g k*ith the native language, everyone should master btus-
sian--the languag~~ of the brotherhoQd of all the peoples of the USSR, the language .
of October, the language of Lenin."20 First Secretary of the Central Committe~e of
the Communist Party of Uzbekistan Sh. R. Rashidov writes "that the Soviet peop].e
of all nationalit:Les are studying the Russian language voluntarily, that this study-
ing has become their fundamental need."21
In a number of union republics in recent years steps have been taken, which conform
to local conditions and are aimed at the improvement of the teaching of Russian in
national schools, at the increase of the opportunities for cultural exchange, anci
- thereby the familiarization of the broadest strata of workers of the indigenou4 rna-
tionalities with the Russian language and Rusaian culture, and through their medi,a-
tion with the culture of all the peoplea of the USSR and world culture.
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Table 2
Fluency in Russian of People of the Indig,~nous Nationalities
Living on the Territory of the Union Republics*
(percent)
1970 1979
Nationality native lan- apeak native lan- speak
guage is Russian total ~uage is Russian total
Russian fluently Russian fluently
a) Volga - Cis-Ural region
_ Tatars. . o.... . 1.5 54.7 56.2 2.3 65.9 68.2**
Chuvash S.5 58.3 63.8 10.2 68.1 76.3
Ntordvinians 3.8 75.6 79.4 5.7 81.~ 86.7
Udmurts 12.3 68.4 80.7 17.6 70.6 88.2
Mari. 4.1 66.5 70.6 6.6 77.7 84.3
Komi. 13.3 64.7 78.0 20.0 66.8 86.8
Bashkir 1.5 47.9 49.7 2.7 62.5 65.2
Average for region. 68.3 79.7
b) Baltic region
Lithuanians 0.2 34.8 35.0 0.2 52,2 52.4
Latvians. 1.8 45.3 47.1 2.2 58.3 60.5
Estonians 0.7 27.6 28.3 1.0 23.1 24.1
Average for~region. 36.8 45.7
c) Kazakhstan-Central Asian region
Uzbeks. 0.3 13.1 13.4 0.4 52.9 53.3
Kazakhs 1.1 41.6 42.7 1.4 50.6 52.0
Tajiks. 0.4 16.6 17.0 0.5 27.8 28.3
Turkmens. 0.6 14.8 15.5 0.7 24.2 24.9
~ Kirghiz 0.2 19.8 20.0 0.4 28.5 28.9
Average for region. 21.7 37.5
d) Transcaucasian region
Georgians 0.4 20.1 20.5 0.5 25.5 26.0
Azerbaijanis. 0.8 14.9 15.7 1.0 27.9 28.9
Armenians 0.2 23.3 23.5 0.6 34.2 34.8***
Average for region. 19.9 29.9
~
Calculated according to "Itogi Vsesoyuznoy perepisi naseleniya 1970 goda" /Results
of the 1970 Al1-Union Census/, Vol IV, Moscow, 1973, Tables 5-29; VESTNIK STATISTI-
_ KI, Nos 8-11, 1980.
Of the total number of Tatars, 26 percent live in the Tatarskaya ASSR. Among them
(for the USSR as a whole) 83 percent of the population (1979) speaks Russian flu-
ently (as the native or second language}.
~ In all two-thirds of the Armenians live in the Armenian SSR. Among them (for
the USSR as a whole) 47.9 percent of the popul$tion (19i9) speaks Russian fluently
(as the native or second language). .
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In some republics the Rusaian language is studied starting in the first grade in
all the national schools. The scale of the training of instructors in this disci-
pline is being expanded at the pedagogical higher educational institutions of the
republics. Schools, at which parallel classes are in operation, are becoming more
and more widespread; the instruction in these classes is conducted in Russian and
the national language, which creates additional opportunities for contact ~etween
children, promoting both the mastery of Russian and the mastery of the national lan-
guage of the republic by the children of the Russian population living on its terri-
tory. Thus, 15.5 percent of the Russians living in Georgia indicated that they
- speak Georgian fluently; 35.2 percent of those living in Lithuania and 20.1 pereent
- of those living in Latvia indicated that they apeak Lithuanian and Latvian fluent-
1y.22 AmonR the Russian population living permanently in the republics this per-
centage is higLzer. The Russian population in the Ukraine and Belorussia understands
Ukrainian and Belorussian owing to their cloaeness.
The national policy of the ~PSU, which takes into account both the general laws of
the fl~urishing and convergence of the socialist nations and the specific nature of
their manifestation in different regions and republica, is a mighty fa~tor of the
acceleration of the process of the further strengthening of the unity of the Soviet
people. L. I. Brezhnev, speaking about such interconnected traits of Soviet people
as Soviet patriotism and internationalism, noted that "they are being cultivated
among the workers by Soviet life itself, by all our reality. But the conscious ef-
forts of the party, of all workers of the political and ideological front are also
- needed here."23 What has been said also fully applies to the sphere of "langua.ge
building," including the task examined here of the more and more complete mastery
of the language of international intercourse. The extension and intensification,
which is cultivated by all of Soviet life, of international intercourse and of the
knowledge of the language, which in practice ensures this intercaurse, are at the
same time a process which is consciously directed by the party.
FOOTNOTES
1. "Materialy XXVI s"yezda KPSS" /Materials of the 26th CPSU Congress/, Moscow,
- 1981, p 145.
2. "Materialy XXV s"yezda KPSS" /Materials of the 25th CPSU Congress/, Moscow,
1976, p 81.
3. See, for example, "Osnovnyye napravleniya izucheniya natsional'nykh otnosheniy
v SSSR" /The Main Directions of the Study of National Relations in the USSR/,
Moscow, 1979, p 76.
4. "Statistical Abstract of the United States, 1979, National Data Book and Guide
to Sources," Washington, 1979, p 39.
5. K. Marx and F. Engels, "Soch." /Works/, Vol 4, p 445.
6. "Programma KPSS" /The CPSU Program/, Moscow, 1961~ p 115.
7. V. I. Lenin, "Pol. sobr. soch." /Complete Works/, Vol 24, p 295.
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rvR vrri~,1AL VJC. UlVLY
8. L. I. Brezhnev, "Leninskim kuraom. Rechi i stat'i" /By the Leninist Course.
Speeches and Articles/, Vol 4, Moscow, p 60. The interspacing is mine--M.R.
9. See, for examples Yu. L. Desheriqev, "Zakonomernosti razvitiya i vzaimodey-
stviya yazykov v sovetskom obshchestve" /The Laws of the Development and Inter-
action of Languages in Soviet Societ~/, Moscow, 1965; I. K. Beloded, "Lenin-
skaya teoriya natsional'no-yazykovogo stroitel'stva v sotsialisticheskom ob-
shchestve" /The Leninist Theory of National Language Building in Socialist So-
cietY/, Moscow, 1972; Yu. Kakhk, "Cherty skhodstva" /Traits of SimilaritY/,
Moscow, 1974, and others. Of the articles of late let us noCe: M. N. Guboglo,
"Toward the Study of the Prospects of the Development of Bilingualism Among the
Peoples of the USSR," ISTORIYA SSSR, No 1, 1978; K. Kh. Khanazarov, "An Impor-
tant Direction of CPSU Policy in the Area of the Solution of the National Prob-
lem and the Development of National Relations," VOPROSY ISTORII KPSS, No 1,
1978; Ya. V. Garipov, K. D. Argunova, "The Analysis of the Factors of the Spread
of Bilingualism in the USSR," SOTSIOLOGICHESKIYE ISSLEDOVANIYA, No 3, 1980;
S. I. Bruk, "Ethnodemographic Proceases in the USSR (According to Materials of
~ the Postwar Censuses)," ISTORIYA SSSR, No 5, 1980. See also the materials of
- the round table on the theme "The Emergence and Development of the New Histori-
cal Community--the Russian People," ISTORIYA SSSR, No 6, 1980.
_ 10. See on this "Osnovnyye napravleniya izucheniya natsional'nykh otnosheniy
v SSSR," p 105.
11. A. I. Kholmogorov, "International Traits of the Socialist Nations in the USSR,"
"Sotsializm i natsii" /Socialism and Nations/, Moscow, 1973, p 292.
12. See "Sotsial'noye i natsional'noye" /The Social and the National/, Moscow,

~ 1973, p 235. .
13. V. I. Lenin, "Poln. sobr. soch.," Vol 23, p 317.
14. Calculated on the basis of the data of the USSR Central Statistical Administra-
_ tion. See "Naseleniye SSSR" /The Population of the USSR/, M~oscow, 1980,
PP 23-25. -
15. See "Itogi Vsesoyuznoy perepisi naseleniya 1970 goda" /Results of the 1970 All-
Union Census/, Vol IV, Moscow, 1973, pp 9, 15.
16. "Materialy XXVI s"yezda KPSS," pp 56, 57.
17. See NARODNOYE OBRAZOVANIYE, No 12, 1972, p 80.
13. "SSSR v tsifrakh v 1977 g." /The USSR in Figures in 1977/, Moscow, 1979, p 224.
For the RSFSR in 1979 it was 99.2 percent (SOVETSKAYA ROSSIYA, 3 August 1980).
19. See VESTNIK STATISTIKI, No 6, 1980, pp 43-46.
20. KOMMUNIST, No 13, 1977, p 49.
21. Sh. R. Rashidov, "On the Path of Unity and Fraternity," PRAVDA, 23 May 1980.
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22. VESTNIK STATISTIKI, No 10, 1980, pp 67, 71, 72.
23. L. I. Brezhnev, "Leninsicim kuraom," Vol 4, p 64.
- COPYRIGHT: Izdatel'stvo "Nauka", "Istoriya SSSR", 1981
7807
CSO: 1828/147
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DEMUGRAPHY
~
POPULATION DYNAMICS OF.SIBERIAN TERRITORIAL-PROBUCTION COMPLEXES
Novosibirsk GEOGRAFIYA I PRIRODNYYE RESURSY in Russian No 2, Apr-Jun 81
(manuscrint received 28 Oct 80) pp 84-90
[Article by V. I. Chudnova, Institute of the Geography of Siberia and the Far East
(Irkutsk), Siberian Department of the USSR Academy of Sciences: "Development and
Distribution of Productive Forces"]
_ [TextJ Geographic Research on Shaping the Population of Siberian TPC's [territarial
production complexes].
Shaping the population of territorial-production complexes (TPC's) is a complex so-
~ cioeconomic process determined by changes in the dynamics and structure of the po-
pulation, in indicators of natural reproduction, migratory movement and the settle-
ment system (I). It is inseparably connected with stages in the economic de~elop-
ment of the TPC (start of construction and putting enterprises.of specialization
_ branches into operation, functioning of the system which has evolved, its further
- interlinking and improvement). The time boundaries on each stage depend on the pro-
duction specialization of the camplex, the use of raw materials, degree of utiliza-
tion of the territory, and the priority tasks of the country's national economy.
As the complex is created and shifts to a different level (stage), substantial
changes occur in the dynamics, structure and movement of the population. Both re-
gional factors (natural movement and structure of the population, status of labor
resources, intraregional migrations) and external migration ties with other parts
of the country influence formation of the T'PC population. The overall labor re-
sources situation, degree of employment in the country and in ad~acent areas, as
well as in regions similar in terms of production profile exert a significant in-
fluence on the nature of external migration ties.
Population formation cau be studied by.utilization area (zone), urban agglomeration,
manufacturing center and [administrative] center. The most significant results for
practical planning and forecasting are provided by analysis of the basic elements
- of a complex's territorial structure, the industrial centers or junctions.
This work generalizes geographic research on the population of TPC's developing in
Siberia (West-Siberian, Sayanskiy, Bratsk - Ust'-Ilimskiy, KATEK). As a result, we
have revealed the features of population formation for these complex~es which charac-
terize their stage of development as determined by the creation of basic enterprises
of specialization branches. For certain TPC's (Sayanskiy, Bratsk - Ust'-Ilimskiy),
we succeeded in analyzing trends in this process of change during the course of e5-
tablishment of the TPC's.
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~ Depending on the degree of utilization and settlement of the territory in which the
TPC's being studied are located, they can be divided into two types. The first (West-
Siberian, Bratsk - Ust'-IlimSkiy) are being developed in northern.Siberia, in regions
with harsh natural conditions, little settlement or utilization. The creation of a
TPC in this instance j.s associated with the necessity of building up the territory~
demanding the attraccion of considerable labor resources from other regions of the
country. The harsh natural conditions complicate population formation and create
an unfavorable living and working atmosphere for settlers. For a ma~ority of mi-
grants, such territories turn out to be a sharp contrast, in terms of natural and
socioeconomic conditions, from their previous places of residence, which negatively
affects settlement levels.
A second type of TPC evolved in the southern regions of Siberia (Sayanskiy, KATEK),
which are well-populated, long settled and utilized, in direct proximity to the in-
dustrial centers of Western and Eastern Siberia, and characterized by conditions
favorable to development of the economy and people's lives.
Population formation was studied using the ma:Ln centers of TPC's of different func-
tional types and with different levels of development. In the Bratsk - Ust'-Ilim-
skiy TPC, they included the cities of Bratsk, Ust'-Ilimsk and Zheleznogorsk-Ilimskiy;
in the Sayanskiy Sayanogorsk, Abakan, Chernogorsk and Minusinsk; in the West-
~iberian Surgut, Nefteyugansk and Nizhnevartovsk, in the KATEK Nazarovo, Sha-
rypovo and Achinsk. We traced the dependence among indicators determining the for-
mation of population and the functional typology of the center: national economic
structure, features of the economic-geographic situation, number of people and time
of settl.ement, role in forming the region and place in the settlement system.
Our study of population formatton in TPC industrial centers ~as based on combining
materials from current statistical records, the results of processing primary data
sources (tear-off coupons from arrival and departure address lists) and surveys of
the composition and movement of workers at leading enterprises. The forms of sta-
tistical reporting enabled us to obtain onZy Che most general idea of the size of
population migration in the cities and rural administrative regions. The develop-
ment of data on the direction of migration ties is ordinarily done for the whole
aggregate of urban settlements and rural regions of oblasts, krays and autonomous
republics. Such generalization of statistical materials does not correspond to the
tasks of a geographic study of population formation. Particular difficulties arise
when analyzing the migration ties of complexes whose boundaries do not coincide wirh
statistical reporting units. This is observed when the territory of a complex occu-
- pies a portion of an oblast, kray or is situated within various administrative su~-
divisions. Studying the formation of population in individual indnstrial centers
is con.Zected with the necessity of processing primary sources of tt:igration records
using a special program whose content is determined by the goals and tasks of the
research. The same types of materials for every 3-5 years must be available to
analyze the dynamics of migration processes.
Work on collecting initial data and preparing it for analysis consisted of several
stages. The first was associa~ed with for~sing the actual aggregate for study. It
was necessary to select arrival and departure sheets relating to the centers being
studied and to verify their completeness and the accuracy of the entries. The num-
ber of sheets obtained was monitored by comparing them with current statistical re-
porting data. Sheets not relating to population migration were excluded from the
total.
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~ The second stage is the actual processing of the information indicated on the sheets.
The main task in this stage is to select the most appropriate groupings and classi-
fications of criteria being analyzed and to develo~ model output tables. They are
determined according to the goals and tasks of the research. In order to establish
the features of migration ties of the centers and changes in them as the complex de-
velops, the data processing program anticipates the receipt of data charact~erizing
the zones of migration exchan~e and the flow structure. The following criteria re-
corded in the primary reporting sources were used for the analysis: migrant's place
of departure (settlement), place of birth, sex, dge, nationality, employment branch,
length of stay (for those leaving).
Particular attention was paid to obtaining data describing in detail the migration
ties of each center. For convenience of analysis, the migration flows were sub-
divided into external and internal relative to the city being studied. This di-
vision is also determined conventionally by the boundaries of the administrative-
- territorial units which are the basis of the analysis. The necesity for this is
- dictated by the significant differences in near and far migration flows in terms of
volume, intensiveness, structure and role in shaping population. External migration
ties mean population exchange with other parts of the country (excluding one's own
oblast or kray). They can be examined at the oblast, kray, autonomous or union-
republic, migration exchange zone or large economic region level. As experience in
studying population formation for various TPC centers has shown (2, 3), it is appro-
priate to analyze external migration ties in terms of fractional units of the coun-
try's administrative-territorial divisions (oblasts, krays, autonomous and union re-
publics). This approach will subsequently make it easier to e~tablish migration ex-
- change zones. Internal (intraoblast, intrakray) migrati~n ties characterize popula-
tion exchange between a given center and cities, settlements and rural population
centers within that oblast (kray).
Processing arrival and departure sheets results in the compilation of tables which
enable us to calculate the basic parameters of migration ties. In addition to
simple tables reflecting migrant distribution by sex, age, place of birth, place of
- departure or settlement, branch employment and length of stay, we also compiled com-
bined tables which provide an opportunity to reveal differences in the qualitative
- composition of migration flows. Tables showing the degree of permanent settlement
- of migrants as a function of place of birth, former residence, anticipated next move
and the composition of the migrants, comprise a separate group.
The third and most important stage in collecting and preparing the data is to con-
vert the materials obtained into a form suitable for economic-geographic study. The
- results of processing primary migration reporting sources can properly be represented
- in the forni of matrices, graphs and maps. Maps occupy a special place in geographic
research on population formation. Their sub~ect matter is diverse. They ordinarily
show the size, intensiveness and results of migration exchange and the structure of
the flows. When studying population formation in TPC centers, maps using a single
legend are compiled for the migration ties of each center for different dates which
mark characteristic stages of development. The amounts of direct and return flows
(or migration volume) and an overall migration ties intensiveness factor are used as
indicators. Such maps were developed individually to show external and internal mi-
gration ties. The compilation and conjugate analysis of migration ties maps enabled
us to establish the general features of population formation for various centers, as
~ well as the features of each center as a function of number of people, functional
type, level of development and place in the settlement system.
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When studying migration ties, both their spatial differences and their temporal
changes are ~f importar.t significan~e. Analy~is of maps reflecting the migration
ties of ~enters on different dates enables us te reveal changes in the size and
structure of the flows and the boundaries of zones of different levels of migration
exchan~e intensiveness in connection with continued development of the complex ~nd
its settlement system. It is possible, using such maps, to compile maps of the dy-
namics of migration ties which show the degree of stability and trends in change in
the size, intensiveness, direction and results ~f external and internal migration
exchange. Materials thus prepared served as the base for geographic research on
the process of population formation in the main centers of the West-Siberian, Sa-
yanslciy, Bratsk - LTst'-Ilimskiy TPC's and KATEK.
The creation and development of TPC's is usually accompanied by urban population
growth (especially in the large industrial centers) and reduction in rural popula-
tion. This feature of population dynamics is typical of a majority of the regions
of present industrial utilization. However, the initial stage of TPC formation in
the southern and more settled~ regions of Siberia (Sayanskiy, for example) did not
cause so pronounced a jump in population as compared with the northern regions now
being utilized. Moreover, in individual TPC's developing in sparsely populated re-
gions, the rural population often increases as a result of the siting of nonagri-
~ cultural enterprises there.
Graphic analysis of population dynamics and the role of its components (natural in-
crement and migration results) enables us to group urban settlements and rural re-
_ gions of TPC's into four types most commonly encountered, based on these indicators.
The first is characterized by population growth with migration influx playing the de-
ci.sive role. This type is inherent foremost to centers of present TPC industrial de-
velopment. Migration influx often comprises 60-90 percent of the total population
increment there. In the second and third types of dynamics, a slight increase in
population is noted, with natural increment of leading importance, and in the third
a population outflow. The fourth type of dynamics is distinguished from the pre-
vious types by a reduction in population as a consequence of si.gnificant migration
outflow. This relationsh3p of dynamics elements is observed most often in rural re-
gions and old urban settlements with poorly developed industry.
The population of the main industrial centers of the TPC's is shaped under the in-
fluence of a migration influx which introduced substantial changes into the age
structure of the population and natural reproduction indicators. The level of na-
tural population increment in these centers reaches the highest value~ for the gi-
ven region. The most favorable relationship of natural reproduction components
evolves in them: birth rate indicators are considerably above the average level.
for the territory and mortality rates are considerably lower. Migration intensive-
ness coefficients are also highest in the centers of present TPC industrial develop-
ment. Graphs depicting three indicators birth rate, mortality and natural incre-
ment or arrival, departure and migration results are a convenient method of ana-
lyzing territorial differences in natural movement and migration mobility. Graphs
of dynamic types., natural movement ancl migration mobility enable us to establish
the place and role of TPC industrial centers in the TPC sociodemographic system.
The highest amount of migration is noted in the developing industrial centers,
which also determine the level of TPC population migration mobility. It results
from the significant direct (arrival) and return (departure) migration flows. Mi-
gration ordinarily is appreciably higher in the initial development period in
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connection with the intensive construction. Subsequently, migration stabilizes, re-
latively speaking, although the nature of change in it is dissimilar from year to
year.
One feature of population formation in TPC industrial centers is the broad range of
migration ties. Migration exchange occurs in nearly all the economic regions of the
country. Five zones of migration exchange are delineated for each center on the ba-
sis of indicators of direct and return flows (or amount of movement) and the general
migration ties intensiveness factor (4): extremely high level of intensiveness,
~ high, above-average, below-average and low.
1. Zone of significant amounts and an extremely high level of migration ties inten-
- siveness: includes an oblast (or kray) within which a given center is located and
~ describes its internal migration ties. It is distinguished by a very sharp contrast
- in all migration indicators as compared with other migration exchange 2ones. The
intensiveness of internal migration ties is highest and exceeds the average level
10-fold. As a result of migration exchange with this zone, a perceptible migration
influx of population to the center is observed.
2. The zone of high migration ties intensiveness level includes territories border-
ing an oblast (kray) in which a TPC is being created and often comprise with it one
large economic region (EaG~ern or Western Siberia). Participation of this zone in
the overall migration exchange of the center is substantial, and the intensiveness
of migration ties is 2.5- to 5-fold higher than the average indicators. The re-
sults of migration exchange are positive, especially for the large centers.
3. The zone of above-average level of migration ties intensiveness includes other
territorial subdivisions of Siberia, and the Far East to some extent, not in the
first or second zones. The intensiveness of migration exchange with this zone is
1.5- to two-fold higher than average. The zone plays an appreciable role in the
volume of movement and provides a slight population influx.
4. The zone of below-average level of migration ties intensiveness occupies a
- large portion of the European USSR. Along with the first zone, it plays an import-
~nt role in migration movement, but a population outflow is often observed in ex-
change with it. It is quite an extensive zone in terms of area and is the most
settled part of the country. Reverse migration flows are distinguished by signi-
ficant amounts. Along with this, some oblasts in the zone, especially ones similar
in terms of production profile with the developing oblasts in Siberia, provide the
necessary amount of skilled personnel.
5. The zone with a very low level of migration ties intensiveness includes the Bal-
tic republics, Transcaucasus, Central Asia, Belorussia and Moldavia. This zone oc-
cupies a small proportion of the overall migration exchange of the centers, and the
intensiveness of migration ties with it is extremely weak.
Internal migration ties deserve particular attention, inasmuch as they play an im-
portant role in population redistribution and transforming the settlement system.
The relationship of internal to external migrations evolves for each center as a
function of the settlement, utilization and migration opportunities of the sur-
- rounding territory. Thus, external migration ties, which were especially pronounced
in the initial development period, have predominated in exchange in centers of the
Bratsk - Ust'-Ilimskiy and West Siberian TPC's. For the industrial centers of TPC's
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being formed in the southern and central portions of Krasnoyarskiy Kray (Sayanskiy,
KATEK), internal migYations of significant volume are characteristic.
The internal migration ties of the centers are the most intensive and stable, espe-
ciallv with the rural population ~f ad~acent administrative regions. Migration ties
between urban and rural areas are direct and unilateral in nature and facilitate po-
pulation influx (a small number of residents leave in the return migration flow).
Population formation in the centers is also associated with the migration of urban
residents. This type of movement has recently occupied an appreciable place in mi-
gration exchange. The leading migration ties in terms of volume are ordinarily es-
tablished with the oblast (kray) center and the closest urban settlements. In zhis
regard, territorial proximity and similarity of economic specialization are of im-
portant significance. Another direction of displacement is from old urban settle-
ments of lesser rank in terms of number of people into newer, rapidly developing,
multiple-function centers. The intensiveness of internal migration ties diminishes
with c?istance from the center.
The effectiveness of migration exchange is relatively low. A migration influx is
formed as a result of large direct and return flows. A significant portion of those
arriving are migrants without ~obs ["unsecured"], who will live in the center for
less than a year. Comparing the initial point of departure for those migrants
leaving a given city and their new place of settlement ereables us to trace the con-
tinuing territorial redistribution of the population. In this regard, movement
through three points is recorded: place of departure, city, place of new settle-
ment. More than half the return-flow migrants return to their previous place of
residence. Some of those arriving from other regions af the country participate in
~ internal migrations, leaving for other cities or settlements of the same oblast (or
kray). And only a small number of migrants plan to move to a new place of residence
in Siberia. At the same time, local residents leave their own oblast (kray), in-
cluding for places outside Siberia.
Forecasting TPC population formation relies on a knowledge of the initial status of
migration ties and their tendencies as the complex develops. In order to purpose-
fully influence migration, we need to establish not only the role of various fac-
tors influencing this process, but also the nature of change in migration ties over
, time. Using centers of the Bratsk - Ust'-Ilimskiy and Sayanskiy TPC's as an example,
= we succeeded in tracing the dynamics of migration ties parameters over several years.
Migrations are the most effective and dynamic component of population movement. As
analysis has shown, the basic parameters of migration for TPC centers change signi-
- ficantly in the course of their development. An increase in one of the components
of migration movement (arrivals) invariably involves growth in another (departures).
The results of migration exchange can change within considerable limits in a brief
period of time. Maximum migration volumes coincide with the start of construction,
putting J_arge industrial facilities into operation and expanding production.
In the course of development of a complex, the relationship of components of popu-
- lation dynamics of TPC centers also changes. Whereas in the initial period a mi-
gration influx dominates significantly, its size then decreases and stabilizes
somewhat. The importance of natural increment in population formation increases.
The old cities which had been further developed thanks to the creation of a TPC
change the type of population dynamics.
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The basic directions of the migration ties which have evolved are distinguishe3 by
their stability. Changes consist not so much in the range of migration exchange as
in the size and significance of the corresponding flow direction. With time, migra-
tic.1 ties with specific regions can intensify or abate, but the leading importance
of ties with the clo~est and adjacent regions is retained. A comparison of migra-
tion ties maps of individual TPC centers which were compiled using a single legend
for different dates shows that only the role of internal migrations has intensified
significantly. The importance of external migration ties with other parts of Si-
. beri~ remained unchanged. The proportion of regions in the European portion of the
country in overall migration exchange has decreased. External migration ties ordi-
narily predominate for a while at the start of TPC ,formation in sparsely settled
territories. As a city develops, its functions become more comp~ex and social and
personal services are developed, the role of internal migration ties increases. In
the concluding stage of creation of a complex, they have become tne determining
ones.
Changes in the overall demographic situation in the country, and especially the mi-
gration opportunities of the population of regions with which close migration t3.es
_ have evolved, exert a substantial influence on the directi~n and structure of mi-
gration ties.
~ BIBLIOGRAPHY
1. Vorob'yev, V. V., "Naseleniye Vostochnoy Sibiri (sovremennaya dinamika i vo-
_ prosy prognoziravaniya)" [Population of Eastern Siberia (Present Dynamics and
- Forecasting Problems)], Novosibirsk, Izd-vo Nauka, 1977, 160 pp.
2. Misevich, K. N. and Chudnova, V. I., "Naseleniye rayonov sovremennogo promyshlen-
nogo osvoyeniya severa Zapadnoy Sibiri" [Population of Newly Utilized Regions in
Northern Western Siberia], Novosibirsk, Izd-vo Nauka, 1973, 209 pp.
3. Chudnova, V. I. and Kozhukhovskaya, N. F., "Naseleniye Sayanskogo TPK (formiro-
vaniye i rasseleniye)" [Population of the Sayanskiy TPC (Formation and Settle-
ment)], Novosibirsk, Izd-vo Nauka, 1979, 120 pp.
4. Rybakovskiy, L. L., "Metodologicheskiye voprosy prognozirovaniya naseleniya"
[Methodological Questions of Forecas*_ing Population], Moscow, 1978, 208 pp.
COPYRIGHT: Izdatel'stvo "Nauka", "Geografiya i prirodnyye resursy", 1981
_ 11052
CSO: 8144/1615 END
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