METHODOLOGY FOR ESTIMATING SOVIET PRODUCTION CAPACITY FOR STANDARD CARGO SHIPS

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79S01046A000700160001-7
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 51
• Document Creation Date: November 9, 2016
• Document Release Date: January 27, 1999
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: August 1, 1960
• Content Type: REPORT

ECONOMIC RESEARCH AID
N,? 88
METHODOLOGY
FOR ESTIMATING SOVIET PRODUCTION
CAPACITY FOR STANDARD CARGO, SHIPS
CIA/RR A.ERA 60-6
August 1960
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
OFFICE OF RESEARCH AND REPORTS
Approved For Release 1999/09/08 : C1A-RDP79SO1046A000700160001-7
Approved For Release 1999/09/08 : CIA-RDP79SO1046A000700160001-7
0% FM% r.
 Approved For Release 1999/09/08 : CIA-RDP79SO1046A000700160001-7
WARNING
This material contains information affecting
the National Defense of the United States
within the meaning of the espionage laws,
Title 18, USC, Secs. 793 and 794, the trans-
nois.ion or revelation of which in any manner
to an unauthorized person is prohibited by law.
Approved For Release 1999/09/08 : CIA-RDP79SO1046A000700160001-7
 Approved For Release 1999/09/08 : CIA-RDP79SO1046A000700160001-7
FOREWORD
Many intelligence problems require.estimates of the shipbuilding
capacity of the USSR. This research aid develops for production of
standard cargo ships several alternative methods for estimating the
capacities of Soviet shipyards, and these methods take into account
the various types of data that may be available.
S -E -C -R -E -T
Approved For Release 1999/09/08 : CIA-RDP79SO1046A000700160001-7
 Approved For Release 1999/09/08 : CIA-RDP79SO1046A000700160001-7
S-E-C-R-E-T
CONTENTS
Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
I. Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
II. Definition of Unit of Output and Capacity . . . . . . . . 4
1. Unit of Output . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4
2. Capacity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5
III. Principal Methods for Measuring Capacity . . . . . . . . 6
1. Relationship of Floor and Working Area to Maximum
Output . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
2. Relationship of Methods, Time, and Ship Erection
Sites to Maximum Output . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
3. Relationship of Hull Steel Fabrication and Sub-
assembly Area to Maximum Output . . . . . . . . . . 12
4. Relationship of Total Shipyard Area to Maximum
Output . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
5. Determination of Shipbuilding Capacity to Produce
Naval Ships . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14
Appendixes
Appendix A. Methodology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
Appendix B. Estimate of the Capacity of Shipyard No. 102
at Kherson and Leninskaya Kuznitsa Shipyard at
Kiev . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19
Appendix C. Soviet Classification of Shipbuilding Enter-
prises, Shipyard Personnel and Work-Shift
Distribution, Hours and Wages, and Types of
Ship Erection Sites . . . . . . . . . . . . 27
Appendix D. Source References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35
Approved For Release 1999/09/08 : CIA-RDP79SO1046A000700160001-7
 Approved For Release 1999/09/08 : CIA-RDP79S01046A000700160001-7
S -E -C -R -E -T
Following Page
Figure 1. USSR: Flow of Material in Shipyards
That Assemble Ships on Ship Erection
Sites from Subassemblies . . . . . . . .
Figure 2. USSR: Flow of Material in Shipyards
That Assemble Ships on Ship Erection
Sites from Preassembled Structural
Regions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
8
Figure 3. Shipyard Floor and Working Area per Man .
18
Figure 4. Average Relationship of Length to Light
Ship Displacement for Standard Cargo
Ships . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
18
Figure 5. USSR: Average Annual Output per Man per
Year in Tons in Light Ship Displacement
for Standard Cargo Ships . . . . . . . .
18
Figure 6. USSR: Average Annual Output of Finished
Hull Steel per Square Foot from Hull
Fabrication and Subassembly Areas for
Standard Cargo Ships . . . . . . . . . .
18
Figure 7. Hull Steel Weight in Percent of Light
Ship Displacement for Standard Cargo
Ships . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
18
Figure 8. USSR: Average Construction Time in
Months for Two Conditions of Shipyard
Employment for Standard Cargo Ships . .
18
Figure 9. Total Shipyard Area per Man . . . . . .
18
Approved For Release 1999/09/08 : CIA-RDP79S01046A000700160001-7
 Approved For Release 1999/09/08 : CIA-RDP79SO1046A000700160001-7
S-E-C-R-E-T
METHODOLOGY FOR ESTIMATING SOVIET PRODUCTION CAPACITY
FOR STANDARD CARGO SHIPS*
Summary
The quantity of available reliable information on facilities in
Soviet shipyards varies considerably, and there is both a wide range
in types of ships produced by Soviet shipyards and a wide range in the
capability** of Soviet shipyards. Because of the variety of ships and
shipyards and the varying amounts of information available on shipyard
facilities, four different methods have been developed for estimat-
ing capacity*** for producing ships based on production of standard
cargo ships. These methods are based also on the following selected
factors that have a limiting effect on production: floor and working
area, size and arrangement of ship erection sites,t hull steel fabri-
cation and subassembly area, and total shipyard area. Usually some
information is available on one or more of these factors.
I. Introduction
The shipbuilding industry of the USSR constitutes a relatively
small sector of the industrial economy. The importance of this sector,
however, is in its contribution to the Soviet national defense in the
form of naval ships and to the Soviet foreign and domestic commerce in
the form of commercial ships for oceangoing, coastal, and inland water-
ways service. Because of the importance of ships both to national de-
fense and to the national economy of the USSR, it is necessary to
examine the capability of the shipbuilding industry to produce ships.
* The estimates and conclusions in this research aid represent the
best judgment of this Office as of 1 June 1960. The methodology de-
scribed in this research aid is considered to be applicable to the cur-
rent level of shipbuilding technology in the USSR. Future improvement
in technology may change the values used. For a discussion of the term
standard cargo ship as used in this research aid, see Appendix A.
** The term capability as used in this research aid refers to the
technological ability to produce ships of various types.
*** For a discussion of the term capacity as used in this research
aid, see II, 2, p. 5, below.
t For a discussion of the terms ship erection site and subassembly
as used in this research aid, see III, 2, p. 9, below.
S-E-C-R-E-T
Approved For Release 1999/09/08 : CIA-RDP79SO1046A000700160001-7
 Approved For Release 1999/09/08 : CIA-RDP79S01046A000700160001-7
The Soviet shipbuilding industry is divided into two separate major
divisions. The first division produces materials such as steel plates,
shapes, and castings and components such as electronic devices and ma-
chinery. Although many major Soviet shipyards produce some components
such as steam boilers and castings, most components are produced by in-
dustrial plants scattered throughout the USSR. The second division.
fabricates steel plates and shapes and assembles them to form the ship's
hull and assembles and installs electronic and machinery components to
form the completed ship. This second division requires shipyards, and
these shipyards are located on the navigable waters of the USSR. Geo-
graphic, defense, and economic factors influence the distribution of
shipyards.
Because the principal limiting factor in production of ships is
the shipyard, it is the second division, or the capability of shipyards
to produce ships, that is examined in this research aid.
The demand for ships in the USSR covers a wide variety ranging in
size and type from small shallow-draft cutters of a few tons and
horsepower to large oceangoing merchant ships and large combatant
ships for the Soviet Navy. To develop the capability to meet this
demand after World War II, the USSR built new shipyards, re-equipped
and expanded old ones, and developed an extensive industry for build-
ing ship components.
Because of the wide range in types and sizes of ships and the volume
of standardized classes, shipyards have been developed to some extent
for the specialized construction of single types. For example, Petro-
zavodsk Shipyard No. 789 appears to have been designed for the construc-
tion of wooden ships that are the size of small trawlers, Sudomekh
Shipyard No. 196 in Leningrad was designed principally for the assembly
of submarines, and Zhdanov Shipyard No. 190 in Leningrad and Northern
Shipyard No. 445 in Nikolayev were designed for the construction of
destroyers. Although other ships have been built in each of these ship-
yards, facility layout and equipment is most suitable for the maximum
production of the types of ships mentioned.
Other shipyards build a variety of ships. Examples of this group
are Krasnoye Sormovo Shipyard No. 112 in Gor'kiy, Nosenko Shipyard
No. 4114 in Nikolayev, and Baltic Shipyard No. 189 in Leningrad.
Krasnoye Sormovo Shipyard builds self-propelled and non-self-propelled
river ships of all types, dredgers, tankers for the Caspian Sea, and,
submarines for the Soviet Navy. The Nosenko and Baltic Shipyards build
ships for the river and fishing fleets, the maritime fleet, and sub-
marines and large combatant ships for the Soviet Navy.
Particularly since World War II, capital investment in the ship-
building industry has been allocated principally to shipyards that
S-E-C-R-E-T
Approved For Release 1999/09/08 : CIA-RDP79S01046A000700160001-7
 Approved For Release 1999/09/08 : CIA-RDP79SO1046A000700160001-7
build ships of high priority. As a consequence, there is a wide range
in the capability of shipyards. With the recent lessening of the demand
for naval ships, greater investments are being made in shipyards that
heretofore built only ships of lower priority.
Because of the wide ranges in types of ships and in the capability
of shipyards, any estimates of shipbuilding capacity are subject to
wide margins of uncertainty. In this connection, the discussions of
shipbuilding capacity in The Economist, London, 2 June 1956, and by
A.S. Kreps in Ekonomika sudostroitel'noy promyshlennosti (Economics of
the Shipbuilding Industry), Leningrad, 1955, are of considerable in-
terest.
The article in The Economist points out that in 1921, at the peak
of the boom after World War I, the UK had 3.6 million gross tons* of
ships under construction in its shipyards and the "capacity" of the
industry was put at 3 million gross tons. Ship launching, however,
never exceeded the 2.1 million gross tons launched in 1920. The
"capacity" of the modernized industry at the end of World War II again
was put at 3 million gross tons, but during the postwar boom it never
exceeded the 1.5 million gross tons launched in 1955. Although steel
and labor have been limiting factors since World War II, the effective
capacity lies somewhere between 1.5 million and 2 million gross tons
per year.
In comparison, the US in 1943, at the peak of the war effort,
turned out about 11.5 million gross tons, which was far in excess of
estimates of capacity and about twice as much as all of the rest of
the world's shipyards produced in 1956.
The article from Kreps's book deals with the factors that are to
be considered in the measurement of the capacity of a shipbuilding
enterprise for purposes of production planning.
The quantity of available reliable information on facilities in
Soviet shipyards varies considerably. Shipyards that have been en-
gaged in naval shipbuilding and are located in remote regions are not
observed or mentioned in the Soviet press -- for example, Severodvinsk
Shipyard No. 402 and Shipyard No. 820 at Kaliningrad. Other shipyards,
however, like Shipyard No. 102 at Kherson and Krasnaya Kuznitsa Ship-
yard at Kiev, which have been engaged in construction of merchant
ships, are displayed in scale model form at official Soviet exhibits.
* Tonnages are given in long tons (2,240 pounds) throughout this re-
search aid.
-3-
S-E-C-R-E-T
Approved For Release 1999/09/08 : CIA-RDP79SO1046A000700160001-7
 Approved For Release 1999/09/08 : CIA-RDP79S01046A000700160001-7
Shipyards in Leningrad, although engaged in construction of naval. ships,
are observed by travelers entering and departing the USSR and visiting
Leningrad.
Because of the variety of ships and shipyards and the varying amounts
of information available on shipyard facilities, a method of estimating
production capacity of shipyards for purposes of comparison is best
based on production of a single type of ship. Standard cargo ships were
selected because of the availability of some data on their production
and because they are generally accepted as a basis for estimating costs
and rates of production of ships. Data have been compiled on cargo ships
ranging from 250 to 10,000 LSD.* The selection of a ship size to be
used in estimating the production capacity of a single shipyard is based
on the size of the ship erection site and the layout of the shipyard.
II. Definition of Unit of Output and Capacity
1. Unit of Output
To facilitate determination of the capacity of a shipyard, it
is necessary to establish a standard unit of output. Although not
entirely satisfactory, the unit of output used in this research aid
is a light ship displacement ton. After careful consideration of the
many widely used units for measuring the size of a ship, this unit
was selected as the unit yielding the minimum error in the determina-
tion of the amount of labor, cost, and materials.
Methods used by the US Navy, industry, and commerce to measure
the size of a ship or to measure output of a shipyard suggested several
possible standard units of output. The advantages and disadvantages
of each of these are discussed below.
First, consider output in terms of completed ships or marketable
product. The index of marketable product for a shipyard fluctuates
greatly. The time required to build ships of various types, ranging
from a few weeks for a non-self-propelled river barge to several years
for a navy cruiser, together with weather conditions that may affect
delivery dates of completed ships, produces a highly erratic index
curve for the marketable product. For example, the average time re-
quired to construct a Kazbek-class tanker is about 15 months from keel
laying to delivery, not including several months lead time before keel,
laying. A tanker begun in the last quarter of a year would not show in
statistics on production by a shipyard until 2 years later. The curve
* LSD (light ship displacement) is the weight (in long tons) of a ship
complete, ready for service in every respect, including permanent bal-
last (solid and liquid) and liquids in the machinery at operating levels
but excluding the crew and their effects and all items of consumable or
variable load such as stores, fuel, and cargo.
- -
S-E-C-R-E-T
Approved For Release 1999/09/08 : CIA-RDP79S01046A000700160001-7
 Approved For Release 1999/09/08 : CIA-RDP79SO1046A000700160001-7
for the marketable product, therefore, reflects accurately neither in-
put of resources by the shipyard nor rate of production.
A second possible method for measuring the amount of output by
a shipyard is stages of customer payment. Contracts of shipyards with
shipowners for ships that are under construction more than a few months
provide for partial monetary payments on the completion of a fixed
part of the ship. Final payment is made on completion of the ship and
the satisfactory performance of all tests and trials. This practice
of stages of payment is used also in the USSR. Because payments are
made only on satisfactory completion of a stage of construction, the
shipyard is required to use its own working capital to finance each
stage of construction. It is readily apparent that each payment and,
in particular, the final payment for a large ship lags by a consider-
able period of time the actual expenditure of resources by a shipyard.
For operational purposes, different methods for measuring ships
are used. For naval ships, data of various predetermined conditions of
loading are required, and for merchant ships both volumetric and loading
measurements are used. Because neither volume nor loading measurements
reflect the magnitude of expenditure of resources in the construction of
ships, they are not desirable for measuring the annual output of a ship-
yard.
2. Capacity
The term capacity as used in this research aid means the annual
total number of units of output of standard cargo ships that are pro-
duced by a shipyard at the maximum rate and that are of a size best
suited to the production facilities of the shipyard. It is assumed
that, for each shipyard, there will be an uninterrupted flow of mate-
rial; that there will be adequate supervisory, skilled, and unskilled
personnel; and that there will be adequate power and transportation.
Work is organized on a three-shift basis, and direct labor is distrib-
uted, by shifts, in the order of 60 percent on the first shift, 30 per-
cent on the second shift, and 10 percent on the third shift.* Because
of the large number of covered and heated ship erection sites in the
USSR, no weather factor is used to adjust estimates of capacity production.
Although only the maximum rate of production is considered in
this research aid, it is of interest and may be of considerable value
in economic studies of the shipbuilding industry to examine a second,
or optimum, rate of production.**
The maximum rate is, as the name implies, the highest possible
production of ships for which the shipyard was designed or has had the
* See Appendix C.
** For construction time of standard cargo ships at both rates, see the
chart, Figure 8, following p. 18.
S-E-C-R-E-T
Approved For Release 1999/09/08 : CIA-RDP79SO1046A000700160001-7
 Approved For Release 1999/09/08 : CIA-RDP79SO1046A000700160001-7
greatest production experience, without consideration of costs. US
data indicate that, under a maximum rate of production, labor effi-
ciency falls to 0.87 when a factor of 1.0 for the optimum rate is used
and that the maximum rate of production is about 1.7 times the optimum
rate.
The optimum, or most favorable, rate is one in which employ-
ment of labor in relation to shipyard facilities achieves the highest
efficiency of labor in producing ships for which the shipyard was
designed or has had the greatest production experience. US data in-
dicate that this level is achieved when employment is about 50 to
60 percent of maximum possible employment. The optimum level is also
the point of lowest cost of production per unit.
III. Principal Methods for Measuring Capacity
On the basis of the probability that certain information will be
available on shipyards of the USSR, four methods for calculating
maximum capacity on the basis of a single shipyard have been developed.
These four methods employ and combine both the physical properties
of the shipyard and labor productivity. The first method is based on
the relationship of floor and working area to maximum output; the
second, on the relationship of methods, time, and ship erection sites
to maximum output; the third, on the relationship of hull steel fab-
rication and subassembly area to maximum output; and the fourth, on
the relationship of total shipyard area to maximum output. These
methods may be used also to check reported rates of production, but
in any event they are to be used only as alternatives to proved data
on production. They are applicable to only two types of shipbuilding
enterprises (the yard and the shipbuilding - machine-building plant*)
and to the assembly yard and delivery base type of enterprise. Two
examples showing the practical application of each of the four methods
are found in Appendix B.
Several different methods for building ships are used in the USSR.
Generally the same basic procedure is followed in each shipyard in
the preparation and fabrication of steel plates and shapes and in
assembly and testing of machinery. The principal differences lie in
the manner in which the hull and superstructure are assembled and in
which machinery is installed. The practice of building sections of a
ship, whether they are subassemblies or structural regions,** and then
joining these sections together on a ship erection site has resulted in
* For the classification of these enterprises, see Appendix C.
** For a discussion of the term structural region as used in this re-
search aid, see 2, p. 9, below.
S-E-C-R-E-T
Approved For Release 1999/09/08 : CIA-RDP79SO1046A000700160001-7
 Approved For Release 1999/09/08 : CIA-RDP79SO1046A000700160001-7
greater production from each erection site, reduced total man-hours,
and a better quality of work.
An understanding of the procedure used in each shipyard under study
is necessary to the successful use of the several methods for calcu-
lating maximum capacity. Figures 1 and 2* are diagrams showing the
principal methods that are used. Variations in the material flow and
methods are to be found among shipyards in the USSR. These variations
may result from shipyard layout or from the type of ship being built.
The methodological charts, Figures 3 through 9,*- were developed
to show averaged data and are used throughout this research aid as
part of the methodology. When reliable specific data are available,
however, the data should be used in preference to the charts. For
two examples of use of these data, see the discussion of Shipyard
No. 102 at Kherson and the Krasnaya Kuznitsa Shipyard at Kiev in Appen-
dix B.
1. Relationship of Floor and Working Area to Maximum Output
Shipbuilding capacity that is calculated on the basis of the
relationship of floor and working area to maximum output is subject
to minimum error when applied to enterprises that are strictly of the
yard type. When applied to enterprises of the shipbuilding - machine-
building type, shipbuilding capacity may be overstated. The amount of
error will increase according~to the increase in floor area allocated
to machine-building or other manufacturing facilities in the enter-
prise.
The maximum annual output of a shipyard based on the floor and
working area can be estimated by using the following formula:
AF WD
AFW WT (wDL)
P 0.60
Following p. B.
Appendix A, following p. 18.
S -E -C -R-E -T
Approved For Release 1999/09/08 : CIA-RDP79SO1046A000700160001-7
 Approved For Release 1999/09/08 : CIA-RDP79SO1046A000700160001-7
where the symbols have the following meanings and are calculated as
follows:
P equals the total maximum annual output in light ship dis-
placement for three-shift operation.
F equals the total floor area in square feet of all buildings
in the shipyard, including all shops, administrative build-
ings, utility buildings, covered storage areas, and the
like and the working area of open platen or subassembly
areas, ship erection sites, and fitting-out quays but
excluding open storage area. The effective area of the
ship erection sites and quays is calculated by multiply-
ing the length of the sites and fitting-out quays by the
width of the practical maximum size (length over-all)
ship that the shipyard can build. The practical maximum
size of ship that a shipyard can build is a judgment fac-
tor based on shipyard facilities and shipbuilding tech-
niques.
A equals the working area in square feet required by one
person. From Figure 3 select the number of square feet
applicable to the size of ship selected for F , above.
A
The factor F is the maximum number of employees
A
FW
(direct and indirect*) that can be employed on one shift.
WD equals the percentage of direct workers. This percentage
WT will vary from 75 to 90 percent of total employment de-
pending on the size and operation of the shipyard.**
Most shipyards will operate at 75 percent. The factor
A
A F W WD is the total number of direct workers on one
FW T
shift. If a three-shift operation is assumed with
* For a discussion of the terms direct employees and indirect employees,
see Appendix C.
** See Appendix C.
S-E-C-R-E-T
Approved For Release 1999/09/08 : CIA-RDP79SO1046A000700160001-7
 Approved For Release 1999/09/08 : CIA-RDP79SO1046A000700160001-7
CONFIDENTIAL
USSR: Flow of Material in Shipyards That Assemble Ships
on Ship Erection Sites from Subassemblies
STEEL PLATES AND ELECTRONIC AND
STRUCTURAL SHAPES MACHINERY COMPONENTS
PREPARATION AND
FABRICATION
PLATEN AREA
Subsections for the hull and the superstructure are
assembled. (The weight of subassemblies is not to exceed
the limit of the weight-handling facilities in shipyard).
ASSEMBLY AND
PRETESTING
CHECKING AND
ASSEMBLY
SHIP ERECTION SITE
The hull and some superstructure are assembled, and
major electronic and machinery components and some
outfit are installed. One or more ships may be under con-
struction at one time on one site, depending on size of ship.
Usually ships are 65 percent or more complete when they
are launched from the site.
Major supply flow
-- Minor supply flow
OUTFITTING QUAY
Installation of superstructure, masts, and the like is completed;
installation of electronic and machinery components is
completed; and dock trials are completed. The ship is ready
for service with exception of sea trials.
*The term outfit as used in this chart comprises masts, booms, deck gear, navigational
equipment, furniture, furnishings, hotel equipment, and the like.
CONFIDENTIAL
Approved For Release 1999/09/08 : CIA-RDP79SO1046A000700160001-7
 Approved For Release 1999/09/08 : CIA-RDP79SO1046A000700160001-7
USSR: Flow of Material in Shipyards That Assemble Ships
on Ship Erection Sites from Preassembled Structural Regions
STEEL PLATES AND ELECTRONIC AND
STRUCTURAL SHAPES MACHINERY COMPONENTS
PREPARATION AND
FABRICATION
PLATEN AREA
Subsections for the hull and the superstructure
are assembled.
ASSEMBLY AND
PRETESTING
Figure 2
CHECKING AND
ASSEMBLY
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - --
ASSEMBLY OF STRUCTURAL REGIONS
Complete sections of the ship are assembled, including in-
stallation of electronic and machinery components, piping,
and some outfit. Sections are assembled on cradles
mounted on trucks and are moved on tracks to ship erec-
tion site.
SHIP ERECTION SITE
Complete structural regions are joined together. The ship is
90 percent or more complete when it is launched from site.
Major supply flow
Minor supply flow
*The term outfit as used in this chart comprises masts, booms, deck gear, navigational
equipment, furniture, furnishings, hotel equipment, and the like.
OUTFITTING QUAY
Some masts and the like, and some outfit are installed.
Dock trials are held. The ship is ready for service with the
exception of sea trials.
Approved For Release 1999/09/08 : CIA-RDP79SO1046A000700160001-7
 Approved For Release 1 9/ 5 FWIMDF OU X00700160001-7
J M, FOR Chief, 4 ly i Br nclw,, DD/CR
25X1A9a Gl/.~413/~
Ch ef, P biiratirOns Staff, OR
ft l e sled that the at ~: ed copies of sub, e.+ t.ir~sport be
fired a? : .lows. 25X1X7
Ail
19
Approved For Release 1999/09 000700160001-7
FOR OFFIMITIR
; sansih liti es as defined in t , DIM frs tnof? and u
11 ror.edures for Dissemination of Fiatish..d lntelligem e
za, s? " a applicable to this report? have been ftilfill.K:ai
 Approved For Release 1999/09/08 : CIA-RDP79SO1046A000700160001-7
60 percent of the direct workers on the first shift, 30 per-
cent on the second shift, and 10 percent on the third shift,
F WD
the factor p, l y1T ) is the total number of direct workers
0.60
WDL equals output in light ship displacement per direct worker
per year. From Figure 4 determine the weight in light ship
displacement of the ship selected to be built in the ship-
yard. From Figure 5 determine the light ship displacement
that can be produced per direct worker per year (which will
be the factor WDL ) for ships of this size.
2. Relationship of Methods, Time, and Ship Erection Sites to
Maximum Output
With the exception of instances in which sections of ships are
transferred over land or sea to a remote shipyard for final assembly,
all ships produced by a shipyard are finally assembled on a ship erec-
tion site* usually located within the shipyard.
As a result of the introduction of welding and other techno-
logical improvements, ship assembly methods have changed drastically.
The actual erection time on the final erection site has been greatly
reduced. Capital improvements in some of the older shipyards in the
US and foreign countries have reduced the number of ship erection
sites, and some of the sites that were retained have been enlarged,
whereas the abandoned sites have been converted to areas for the pre-
assembly of ship sections.
In this method for calculating maximum output, the number of
ship erection sites, the maximum length of ship that can be built, the
question of whether ships are assembled from subassemblies or struc-
tural regions,** and the required construction time are the principal
* The term ship erection site denotes a facility on which a ship is
assembled.
** Two principal forms of preassembled ship sections are used in the
assembly of ships on an erection site, a subassembly and a structural
region. A subassembly is an individual portion of the ship construc-
tion, which is first assembled outside the footnote continued on p. 107
S -E-C -R-E -T
Approved For Release 1999/09/08 : CIA-RDP79SO1046A000700160001-7
 Approved For Release 1999/09/08 : CIA-RDP79SO1046A000700160001-7
factors to be considered. The time required to construct a ship is
that period of time from the start of the assembly of the ship on a
ship erection site or from the start of the assembly of the structural
regions to the delivery of the ship after satisfactory conclusion of
all tests and trials. It should be noted that the assembly of the
structural regions usually takes place outside the ship erection site.
Figure 8 shows the estimated average construction time required in
the USSR for two conditions of employment.
The time required to assemble a ship on an erection site varies
according to the layout of the shipyard and the extent to which pre-
assembled ship sections are used.
Shipyards in the USSR that build large ships assemble the ships
on a ship erection site from large subassemblies. The sizes of these
subassemblies are limited by the weight-handling facilities in the
shipyard. Some shipyards in the USSR that build small ships join
together complete structural regions to form a completed ship, thereby
requiring only a matter of days or a few weeks to erect a ship on the
ship erection site.
It is important that the whole assembly process of a ship be
examined beginning with the completion of hull steel subassemblies.
These subassemblies usually are moved either directly to the erection
site or to the area for the assembly of structural regions. In in-
stances in which the subassemblies are moved directly to the ship
erection site, the position on the erection site where these sub-
assemblies are joined together is considered the first building posi-
tion of the ship. When the subassemblies are moved directly to the
area where the structural regions are assembled, this area is con-
sidered the first building position of the ship. A ship usually moves
through three or more building positions before completion.
ship and is delivered as a unit by cranes or other lifting devices to
the ship erection site -- for example, the shell plating subassembly
with its framing, a section of a deck or bulkhead with structural
stiffeners attached, a piping subassembly with fittings, and the like.
A structural region, compared with a subassembly, is a portion of
a ship usually bounded at each end only by vertical transverse planes
running through the entire height of the ship and on the sides, bottom,
and top by shell plating and decks. A structural region is assembled
outside the ship erection-site from individual subassemblies and con-
tains machinery, piping, insulation, and compartment furnishings.
Structural regions are assembled and moved to the ship erection sites
on carriages mounted on rails. Because of size and weight, generally
the use of structural regions in the assembly of ships is restricted
to smaller ships.
S -E -C -R -E -T
Approved For Release 1999/09/08 : CIA-RDP79SO1046A000700160001-7
 Approved For Release 1999/09/08 : CIA-RDP79SO1046A000700160001-7
Because different methods are used in the USSR to erect ships,
a varying number of building positions is used. The time spent on the
erection site represents only a portion of the total building time.
It is this time, however, that determines the production rate for the
shipyard. See Appendix C for examples showing the principal methods
used in the USSR for erecting ships.
The following steps are to be followed to estimate maximum
annual output of ships on the basis of the relationship of methods,
time, and ship erection sites of a shipyard to maximum output. First,
determine the maximum size of ship that can be built at the shipyard,
the number of ship erection sites, the techniques used in ship erection
(the extent of the use of subassemblies or ship regions), and the num-
ber of building positions that each ship moves through. Second, deter-
mine from Figure 4 the light ship displacement of the ship. Third,
determine from Figure 8 the average construction time in months (maxi-
mum employment) required to build the ship. Fourth, the maximum annual
output of a shipyard can be estimated by using the following formula:
M2 (E) L
C
where the symbols have the following meanings and are calculated as
follows:
P equals the total maximum annual output in light ship
displacement for three-shift operations.
12 equals the number of months in 1 year.
MC equals the average construction time (maximum employment)
in months that are required to build the ship. This
quantity is determined from Figure 8.
N equals the number of building positions that the ship
moves through during construction.
E equals the number of identical erection sites in the ship-
yard. A separate calculation is made for each erection
site of a different size.
L equals the light ship displacement of the completed ship.
This quantity is determined from Figure 4.
S-E-C-R-E-T
Approved For Release 1999/09/08 : CIA-RDP79SO1046A000700160001-7
 Approved For Release 1999/09/08 : CIA-RDP79SO1046A000700160001-7
3. Relationship of Hull Steel Fabrication and Subassembly Area
to Maximum Output
It is common practice for shipyards to receive hull steel in
the form of flat plates and straight structural shapes. The flat
plates are chemically or mechanically treated to remove rust and mill
scale after which the plates are coated with a preservative. The
treated plates then are moved to a fabrication shop where they are
marked, cut, and shaped into suitable pieces for assembly into a ship's
hull, decks, and houses. Structural shapes also are cut and shaped. in
the fabrication shop. These cut and shaped pieces are moved from the
fabrication shop to a platen area where the pieces are joined together,
principally by welding, into subassemblies. (The platen area may be
either within the fabrication shop or entirely separate depending on
the layout of the shipyard.) The size and weight of the subassemblies
vary with the type of ship under construction and with the weight-
handling facilities in the shipyard. Subassemblies range in weight
from a few pounds to more than 100 tons. The great majority of sub-
assemblies weigh less than 40 tons. A few of the larger shipyards,
however, can handle sections weighing more than 100 tons.
The size of the area and the equipment used in marking, cutting,
shaping, and assembling, therefore, is a limiting factor in production
of ships. Consequently, an estimate of the shipbuilding capacity of a
shipyard may be made by determining the maximum output of finished hull
steel.
Shipbuilding capacity calculated by this method is subject to
minimum error when applied to enterprises that are strictly of the
yard type. When applied to enterprises that are of the shipbuilding -
machine-building type, shipbuilding capacity may be overstated. The
amount of error will increase according to the increase in floorspace
allocated to steel fabrication and subassemblies for products other
than ships.
The maximum annual output of a shipyard based on the area of
the hull fabrication and subassembly area can be estimated by using
the following formula:
(H)
S-E-C-R-E-T
Approved For Release 1999/09/08 : CIA-RDP79SO1046A000700160001-7
 Approved For Release 1999/09/08 : CIA-RDP79SO1046A000700160001-7
S -E -C -R -E -T
where the symbols have the following meanings and are calculated as fol-
lows:
P equals the total maximum annual output in light ship displace-
ment for three-shift operation.
AH equals the area in square feet of the hull fabrication and
subassembly area. Care should be taken not to include in
the subassembly area any space used for the assembly of
structural regions.
AHL equals the tons of finished hull steel that can be produced
per square foot per year. This factor is derived as fol-
lows: (a) estimate the maximum size of ship that can be
built in the shipyard, and (b) from Figure 6 select the
output rate based on the length of ship determined in
(a), above. This rate then is AHI,.
H equals the relationship of hull steel weight to light ship
L displacement in percentage. This factor is derived as
follows: (a) From Figure 4 obtain the light ship dis-
placement of the maximum size of ship that the shipyard
can build, and (b) from Figure 7 obtain the percent factor
that is applicable to the displacement of the ship deter-
mined in (a), above. This percentage is H.
L
i+. Relationship of Total Shipyard Area to Maximum Output
Shipyard area varies considerably with the location of the
shipyard and the industrial density of the surrounding area. Ship-
yards in Leningrad, where high industrial density exists, will have
fewer square feet per person than at Shipyard No. 402 at Severodvinsk
or Shipyard No. 199 at Komsomol'sk, where low industrial density sur-
rounds the area and more space is available.
This method is subject to the greatest margin of error. In
some instances this error may be in excess of plus or minus 50 percent.
The method is included here because it is known that, in some instances,
total area is the only information available.
The maximum annual output of a shipyard based on total shipyard
area can be estimated by using the formula developed for method number 1
(relationship of floor and working area to maximum output) except that
- 13 -
S-E-C-R-E-T
Approved For Release 1999/09/08 : CIA-RDP79SO1046A000700160001-7
 Approved For Release 1999/09/08 : CIA-RDP79SO1046A000700160001-7
S -E -C -R -E -T
the value for the working area required by one person (1w*) should
read A and is found in Figure 9.
5. Determination of Shipbuilding Capacity to Produce Naval Ships
Because of the wide range in types and classes of naval ships
and a corresponding range in number of man-hours required to produce
1 LSD of each type or class, no meaningful single factor can be applied
to data on capacity for cargo shipbuilding to convert them to capacity
for naval shipbuilding.
To estimate capacity for production of naval ships, procedures
similar to the four methods given in this research aid must be used
except that separate charts will be required for each type of ship
for Figures 5 through 8.
* See 1, p. 7, above.
Approved For Release 1999/09/08 : CIA-RDP79SO1046A000700160001-7
 Approved For Release 1999/09/08 : CIA-RDP79SO1046A000700160001-7
S-E-C-R-E-T
APPENDIX A
METHODOLOGY
Shipyard facilities and technological development in many shipbuild-
ing countries of the world vary considerably. Moreover, the range in
types of ships is wide. Because most of the ships built in the world's
shipyards are types of cargo ships, standard cargo ships were selected
as a basis for all computations. The term standard cargo ship as used
in this research aid refers to a ship designed for the transportation
of general dry cargo, equipped with adequate cargo handling facilities,
rigged with a propulsion system to provide average horsepower and speed
consistent with the size of the ship, and fitted out to carry a normal
crew and not more than 12 passengers. Because of the many variants
that had to be considered in developing Figures 3 through 9,* no pre-
cise methodology can be stated. Data gathered from US or world statis-
tics were arbitrarily adjusted to suit shipbuilding conditions, both
economically and technologically, in the USSR. Arbitrary adjustment
was done subjectively on the basis of many reports (documentary intel-
ligence and raw and finished intelligence) on shipbuilding in the USSR
and on a wide knowledge of methods and techniques of shipbuilding in
the US.
1. Figure 3
The working area of a shipyard is considered to include the floor
area in all covered buildings, multiple floors where they exist, out-
side subassembly areas, ship erection sites and fitting-out quays, and
wharfs or piers. An arbitrary working area on a ship erection site is
bounded by the length of the site and the width of the largest ship
that can be built on the site. The working area of a fitting-out quay
is bounded by the length of the quay and the width of the largest ship
that can be built on the ship erection site.
The basic data used to establish the range shown in Figure 3 were
derived from mobilization plans for US shipyards. These plans reported
the shipyard and building areas and the maximum number of people that
could be employed at one time. US data indicated a wide range in work-
ing area per man, ranging from 50 to more than 200 square feet (sq ft)
per man, excluding shipbuilding ways, dry docks, and fitting-out quays.
Shipyards engaged only in ship repair required the lowest number of
square feet per man, whereas large shipyards engaged for the most part
in shipbuilding required the greatest number of square feet per man.
Followi 18.
ng p-
- 15 -
S-E-C-R-E-T
Approved For Release 1999/09/08 : CIA-RDP79SO1046A000700160001-7
 Approved For Release 1999/09/08 : CIA-RDP79SO1046A000700160001-7
The working area required for shipbuilding alone did not vary as greatly
as the range in working area of shipbuilding and ship repair shipyards
would indicate. Working area seems to range from 150 sq ft per man for
shipyards building small ships to 200 sq ft per man for shipyards build-
ing large ships. Thus working area seems to be influenced by the size
of the ship that is being handled. This influence holds particularly
true for hull fabrication. The maximum size of hull plate that steel
mills produce can be used in a 400-ft ship. Therefore, no greater
working area is required per man for the construction of larger ships.
Plate sizes range downward in the smaller ships. Therefore, a smaller
area per man is required.
2. Figure 4
The curve for the average relationship of length to tonnage was
developed from a study of capacity plans of a good sampling of both
US and foreign-built standard cargo ships with reported accommodations
for less than 12 passengers.
3. Figure 5
The data that were used to develop the curve shown in Figure 5 were
taken largely from B.M. Smirnov's Priblizhennyye metody opredeleniya
stroitel'noy stoimosti morskikh gruzovykh sud.ov (Approximate Methods
of Determining Construction Costs of Maritime Cargo Ships), Moscow,
1956. l/* The rate of output per man fell somewhat below US data.
It is believed, however, that the average rate is about 25 to 30 per-
cent lower than the US rate. This lower rate was indicated also in
A.S. Kreps's Ekonomika sudostroitellnoy promyshlennosti (Economics of
the Shipbuilding Industry), Leningrad, 1955. 2/ An example of norm
hours** to build a tanker of medium size is given by Kreps. It is
believed that the basic data used in this example were obtained from
production data on the Kazbek-class tankers. This example when com-
pared with US data indicates a lower rate of production than the US
and of about the same order as stated above.
4. Figure 6
The average annual output of finished hull steel per square foot
of space varies according to the size and weight of the finished ele-
ment.
The change in rate of output takes place between ships of 200 to
400 ft in length. Because ships that are 400 ft in length can use
For serially numbered source references, see Appendix D.
** For a discussion of norm hours, see Appendix C.
Approved For Release 1999/09/08 : CIA-RDP79SO1046A000700160001-7
 Approved For Release 1999/09/08 : CIA-RDP79SO1046A000700160001-7
the largest plate that rolling mills produce, there is no appreciable
increase in output per square foot for ships of larger size. The
range downward from ships of 400 ft to ships of 200 ft is caused
largely by the following two factors: (a) the weight per square foot
of the steel plate used decreases as the ship becomes smaller, and
(b) the size of the subassembly also decreases as the size of the
ship decreases. Therefore, the resulting output per square foot for
the smaller ships is much lower than for larger ships.
The basic data used to establish the curve were derived from
Smirnov's and Kreps's books, / from a study of a new shipyard in
Greece and two shipyards during World War II, and from some data from
Baltic Shipyard No. 189 in Leningrad. The curve was arbitrarily ad-
justed downward to agree with reductions caused by changes in plate
weights and in size and weights of subassemblies.
5. Figure 7
The basic data that were used to develop this curve were derived
from studies of a good sampling of ships built by the US and from
Smirnov's book. J
6. Figure 8
The basic data used to construct Figure 8 included a sampling of
construction time required to produce standard cargo ships in selected
US shipyards during World War II, mobilization data compiled by the
US Maritime Administration of the Department of Commerce, and miscel-
laneous data on construction time for the Soviet Bloc.
It was of interest to note that the time required for Polish ship-
yards to construct ships for the USSR fell closely to curve A. Proba-
bly the best explanation for this is that Poland is forced to sell ships
to the USSR at about world market prices. Poland therefore is forced
to produce at the most economical rate in order to minimize losses.
7. Figure 9
Studies of total shipyard size were made at the same time that
studies of working space (see Figure 3) were made. A space relation-
ship similar to that for working area seemed to exist in total ship-
yard area. However, probably a greater limiting size factor of total
shipyard area was the industrial density of the surrounding area.
- 17 -
S-E-C-R-E-T
Approved For Release 1999/09/08 : CIA-RDP79SO1046A000700160001-7
 Approved For Release 1999/09/08 : CIA-RDP79SO1046A000700160001-7
Figure 3
Shipyard Floor and Working Area per Man
Probable Deviation from Average `
125'-
100
400 500 600 700
LENGTH OF SHIP (Feet)
Approved For Release 1999/09/08 : CIA-RDP79SO1046A000700160001-7
 Approved For Release 1999/09/08 : CIA-RDP79S01046A000700160001-7
Figure 3
Probable Deviation from Average `
Shipyard Floor and Working Area per Man
125 L-
100
LENGTH OF SHIP (Feet)
Approved For Release 1999/09/08 : CIA-RDP79S01046A000700160001-7
 Approved For Release 1999/09/08 : CIA-RDP79SO1046A000700160001-7
LENGTH OVER-ALL (Feet)
C7
Approved or Release -
 Approved For Release 1999/09/08 : CIA-RDP79SO1046A000700160001-7
LIGHT SHIP DISPLACEMENT TONS PER MAN-YEAR
Approved For Release 1999/09/08 : CIA-RDP79SO1046A000700160001-7
 Approved For Release 1999/09/08 : CIA-RDP79S01046A000700160001-7
Figure 6
USSR: Average Annual Output of Finished Hull Steel per Square Foot
from Hull Fabrication and Subassembly Areas
for Standard Cargo Ships
0'
100 200 300 400 500 600 700
Approved For Release 1999/09/08 : CIA-RDP79S01046A000700160001-7
 Approved For Release 1999/09/08 : CIA-RDP79SO1046A000700160001-7
O
O1
y o
O
HULL STEEL WEIGHT (Pencent of light ship weight)
01
V)
rt
CD
CD
CD
CD
-e
C-)
CD
r-r
r
C7
 Approved For Release 1999/09/08 : CIA-RDP79S01046A000700160001-7
CONFIDENTIAL
USSR: Average Construction Time in Months for Two Conditions of Shipyard Employment for Standard Cargo Ships
0
OPTIMUM EMPLOYMENT
This curve represents a rate of output consistent with the level of employ-
ment that yields the highest efficiency per man in relation to facilities and
workshifts. It also represents a rate of output at the lowest unit cost.
MAXIMUM EMPLOYMENT
This curve represents a rate of output consistent with maximum employment
in relation to facilities and workshifts.
OPTIMUM EMPLOYMENT
MAXIMUM EMPLOYMENT
2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000
6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 10,000
LIGHT SHIP DISPLACEMENT TONS
CONFIDENTIAL
11,000
12,000
13,000
Figure 8
14,000
Approved For Release 1999/09/08 : CIA-RDP79S01046A000700160001-7
 Approved For Release 1999/09/08 : CIA-RDP79S01046A000700160001-7
Total Shipyard Area per Man
LENGTH OF SHIP (Feet)
Figure 9
Approved For Release 1999/09/08 : CIA-RDP79S01046A000700160001-7
 Approved For Release 1999/09/08 : CIA-RDP79SO1046A000700160001-7
S-E-C-R-E-T
APPENDIX B
ESTIMATE OF THE CAPACITY OF SHIPYARD NO. 102 AT KHERSON
AND LENINSKAYA KUZNITSA SHIPYARD AT KIEV
The following examples show the practical application of each of
the four methods for estimating maximum capacity. Soviet Shipyard
No. 102 at Kherson was designed for the construction of large ships,
and the Leninskaya Kuznitsa Shipyard at Kiev was designed for the
construction of small ships.
1. Shipyard No. 102
Shipyard No. 102 at Kherson is relatively new. Construction of
this shipyard was started in the late 1940's, and the shipyard was
activated in the last half of 1952. It probably has the most modern
equipment of any shipyard in the USSR for the construction of merchant
ships. The shipyard has two ship erection sites. Each site is level
and is about 1,700 ft long. The first part of each site, about 700 ft
long, is covered with an open (unroofed) steel structure that supports
four 50-ton bridge cranes over each ship erection site. The main hull
assembly takes place under this structure. The remaining part of
each site, about 1,000 ft long, has no crane-supporting superstructure.
This part is used for fitting out ships and is served by four 15-ton
mobile tower cranes (two at each site). Each ship erection site con-
sists of three sets of rails on which are positioned about 32 trucks
per ship -- that is, for Kazbek-class tankers. The trucks are inter-
connected by adjustable steel rods. On the trucks are mounted the
cradles that support the ship during the whole assembly and fitting-
out period. The three sets of rails extend from the covered portion
of the ship erection site into the launching basin through which com-
pleted ships are lowered into the Dnieper River.
a.
Shipyard Statistics
(Floor and working area in square feet)
Floor area
1,043,300
Covered storage area
101,900
Ship erection sites area, open
2,000(80)
= 160,000
Ship erection sites area, covered
112,000
Outfitting quay area
860(80)
= 68,800
1, 486, 000
S-E-C-R-E-T
Approved For Release 1999/09/08 : CIA-RDP79SO1046A000700160001-7
 Approved For Release 1999/09/08 : CIA-RDP79SO1046A000700160001-7
Number of ship erection sites 2
Length in feet of each ship
erection site 1,700
Maximum length in feet of ship
that can be built 575
Shipyard area in square feet 4,6oo,ooo
b. Relationship of Floor and Working Area to Maximum Output
Employees
Total maximum number of employees
on the first shift
1,486,000 = 7,430
200*
Total number of direct employees
on the first shift 7,430(0.75**) = 5,572
Total number of direct employees
at maximum employment for three
shifts
5g572 = 9,286
o.6o*
One more calculation is needed in order to find the maximum
annual output for a three-shift operation based on the floor and
working area. Figure 4 shows that the displacement of a 575-ft cargo
ship is about 8,800 LSD. Figure 5 shows that the average light ship
displacement produced by one man in 1 year is 9.8 LSD.
Maximum annual output in light ship
displacement for three-shift opera-
tion based on working area 9,286(9.8) = 91,000
c. Relationship of Methods, Time, and Ship Erection Sites to
Maximum Output
Figure 8 shows that the required building time for a cargo ship
of 8,800 LSD is 8.25 months. A shipbuilding technique in Shipyard
No. 102 in Kherson and in similar shipyards is to move the ship along
the ship erection site as the work progresses. Each ship erection site
is divided into three building positions. A ship under construction is
* From Figure 3.
** See III, 1, p. 7, above.
S-E-C-R-E-T
Approved For Release 1999/09/08 : CIA-RDP79SO1046A000700160001-7
 Approved For Release 1999/09/08 : CIA-RDP79SO1046A000700160001-7
scheduled to be moved from one position to another at regular intervals.
A shorter time, usually about one-half of the time spent on one of the
building positions, is required for the last position for final fitting-
out and tests after launching. Therefore, in terms of time, each of
the first three building positions is given a value of 1.00, and the
last, or test, position is given a value of 0.50, which means that, in
terms of time, a ship occupies 3.50 positions throughout the building
period.
Number of months in each of the first
8.25 =
ositions
e buildin
thr
2
36
g p
e
3.50
.
Number of ships produced per year 12
(2) =
from the two ship erection sites
10.2
2
.37
Maximum annual output in light ship
displacement for three-shift opera-
tion based on ship erection sites 8,800(10.2) =
89,760
d. Relationship of Hull Steel Fabrication and Subassembly Area
to Maximum Output
The shipyard's hull fabrication and subassembly area covers
about 237,600 sq ft.
Finished hull steel in tons
Maximum annual output in light ship
237,600(0.27*) =
6-,152
displacement for three-shift
operation based on hull steel fab-
64
152
rication and subassembly area
,
=
650
93
0. 5*
,
e. Relationship of Total Shipyard Area to Maximum Output
Figure 9 shows that for shipyards designed to build ships more
than 400 ft long, an average of 500 sq ft should be used to estimate
maximum employment on one shift.
Maximum number of direct and indirect 4 600 000
employees that can be employed at one time 50~ = 9,200
From Figure 6.
From Figure 7.
S-E-C-R-E-T
Approved For Release 1999/09/08 : CIA-RDP79SO1046A000700160001-7
 Approved For Release 1999/09/08 : CIA-RDP79SO1046A000700160001-7
Comparing employment (7,430 employees) based on working area
with that (9,200 employees) based on total shipyard area shows that
the latter is 24 percent greater. Output based on shipyard area and
computed in the same manner as that based on working area, therefore,
would show a corresponding increase, or a total output of about
112,840 LSD.
Output based on the first three methods shows a relatively
small range in absolute values (minus 1 to plus 3 percent from the
average), indicating a high degree of accuracy. Output based on the
shipyard area is 23 percent above the average for the other three.
Because of this wide difference, an average of the first three
methods, or 91,500 LSD, appears to be the best estimate of maximum
annual output.
2. Leninskaya Kuznitsa Shipyard
The Leninskaya Kuznitsa Shipyard at Kiev was modernized after
World War II and is an efficient shipyard for the construction of
trawlers and river vessels up to 250 ft in length.
The shipyard has two principal ship erection sites, each of
which is served by bridge cranes. Because of the low height of the
bridge cranes, the masts and much of the superstructure on large ves--
sels are put in place at the fitting-out quays. On the basis of the
number and arrangement of the fitting-out quays and on the crane
facilities over the ship erection site, it is estimated that large
ships spend an equal amount of time at each position. Considering
the size of the hull fabrication building, it is assumed that some
subassembly work is done at the head of the ship erection sites and
serviced by the same bridge cranes that are used in the final erection
of the ship.
a. Shipyard Statistics
(Floor and working area in square feet)
Shop and storage area 197,100
Subassembly area 20,000
Ship erection sites area 350(30)2 = 21,000
Outfitting quay area 20,000
Total 258,100
S -E -C -R-E -T
Approved For Release 1999/09/08 : CIA-RDP79SO1046A000700160001-7
 Approved For Release 1999/09/08 : CIA-RDP79SO1046A000700160001-7
S-E-C-R-E-T
Number of ship erection sites 2
Hull fabrication and subassembly area
in square feet 56,300
Length in feet of each ship erection
site (excluding subassembly area) 350
Maximum length in feet of a ship that
can be built 250
Shipyard area in square feet 562,300
b. Relationship of Floor and Working Area to Maximum Output
Employees
Total maximum number of employees 258,100
on the first shift 162 5* = 1,588
Total number of direct employees
on the first shift 1,588(0.75**) = 1,191
Total number of direct employees
at maximum employment for three
shifts
1,191 = 1,985
o . 6oo*
One more calculation is needed in order to find the maximum
annual output for three-shift operation based on the floor and work-
ing area. Figure 4 shows that the displacement of a 250-ft cargo
vessel is about 1,000 LSD. Figure 5 shows that the average output by
one man in 1 year is 6.4 LSD.
Maximum annual output in light ship
displacement for three-shift opera-
tion based on working area 1,985(6.4) = 12,700
From Figure 3.
See III, 1, p. 7, above.
Approved For Release 1999/09/08 : CIA-RDP79SO1046A000700160001-7
 Approved For Release 1999/09/08 : CIA-RDP79SO1046A000700160001-7
c. Relationship of Methods, Time, and Ship Erection Sites to
Maximum Output
Figure 8 shows that the required building time for a cargo
ship of 1,000 LSD is 3.7 months. It is assumed that an equal amount of
time is spent on the ship erection site and at the fitting-out quay.
Number of months on the ship
erection site
3-7 =
1
85
2
.
Number of ships produced per year
from the two shi
erection sites
1(2)
1
p
1
=
3
Maximum annual output in light
ship displacement for three-
shift operation based on methods,
time, and ship erection site
13(1,000) =
13,000
d. Relationship of Hull Steel Fabrication and Subassembly Area
to Maximum Output
The shipyard's hull fabrication and subassembly areas cover
about 56,300 sq ft.
Finished hull steel in tons 56,300(0.1l+f) = 7,882
Maximum annual output in light ship
displacement based on hull steel
fabrication and subassembly area
for three-shift operation
j 882 = 1)+, 600
e. Relationship of Total Shipyard Area to Maximum Output
Figure 9 shows that, for shipyards designed to build ships of
about 250 ft in length, an average of 350 sq ft should be used to
estimate one-shift employment.
Maximum number of direct and indirect em-
ployees that can be employed at one time 502,300 = 1,600
350
From Figure 6.
* From Figure 7.
S-E-C-R-E-T
Approved For Release 1999/09/08 : CIA-RDP79SO1046A000700160001-7
 Approved For Release 1999/09/08 : CIA-RDP79SO1046A000700160001-7
Comparing employment (1,588 employees) based on working area
with that (1,600 employees) based on total shipyard area shows that
the two methods yield about the same employment. Maximum output,
therefore, would be about the same.
f. Conclusion
Output based on the first three methods shows a relatively
small range in absolute values (minus 5.5 percent to plus 8.7 percent
from the average), indicating an acceptable degree of accuracy. An
average of the first three methods, or 13,+33 LSD, appears to be the
best estimate of maximum annual output.
It is significant that in the instance of Shipyard No. 102 at
Kherson and the Leninskaya Kuznitsa Shipyard at Kiev the highest pro-
duction rate, of the first three methods, was based on output from
hull fabrication and subassembly area, indicating that the shipyards
probably were designed for some production other than ships to be car-
ried on concurrently.
S-E-C-R-E-T
Approved For Release 1999/09/08 : CIA-RDP79SO1046A000700160001-7
 Approved For Release 1999/09/08 : CIA-RDP79S01046A000700160001-7
SOVIET CLASSIFICATION OF SHIPBUILDING ENTERPRISES,
SHIPYARD PERSONNEL AND WORK-SHIFT DISTRIBUTION,
HOURS AND WAGES, AND TYPES OF SHIP ERECTION SITES
1. Shipbuilding Enterprises in the USSR
According to A.S. Kreps, J shipbuilding enterprises in the USSR
are classified as given in the following quotation:
"The location of shipbuilding enterprises depends on the
function of each type of shipbuilding enterprise. There are
four types of shipbuilding industry enterprises: the yard
./V-erfj, shipbuilding - machine-building plant fudostroitel'no-
mashinostroitel'nyy zavoJ, marine machine-building plant
zavod sudogo mashinostroyeniy7, and ship repair plant
sudoremontnyy zavod .
"The yard type of enterprise builds ships with broad pro-
duction cooperation. Ships are built in the yard through
broad cooperation with other enterprises delivering all types
of ship machinery. The following basic production processes
are performed in the yard: ship hull construction, instal-
lation of ship equipment, and testing of the ship.
"Yards have building ways or other structures for building
ships and launching them into the water (slips and ellings
or covered building ways); a fitting basin; crane facilities
for the building and fitting work; hull shops to work metal
and handle preliminary and final assembly of the ship hull;
copper pipe and ship rigging shops, fabricating portions of
the piping and installing equipment on ships. To fulfill
these functions, the yard must have a harbor adjoining a
water basin and is therefore located in coastal areas. As
a rule, maritime shipbuilding yards are located in river
mouths, instead of directly on the seacoast.
"The shipbuilding - machine-building type of plant is
intended to build ships with limited production cooperation.
This complex type of enterprise encompasses both yard and
machine-building production. Machine-building production
may be varied, but such enterprises usually produce ship
auxiliaries, steam boilers, ship fittings, propellers, and
S-E-C-R-E-T
Approved For Release 1999/09/08 : CIA-RDP79S01046A000700160001-7
 Approved For Release 1999/09/08 : CIA-RDP79SO1046A000700160001-7
ship furniture. Shipbuilding - machine-building plants having
a definite complex of machine-building production do not en-
gage in such broad cooperation as yards. The shipbuilding -
machine-building plant enterprise handles all the productive
processes of a yard and, in addition, manufactures various
types of ship equipment. It has all the buildings and shops
inherent in a yard, plus the manufacturing, machine and
assembling shops, and sections for the manufacture and test-
ing of ship equipment. Because the shipbuilding - machine-
building plant includes a yard, its location is determined by
exactly the same conditions as that of a yard.
'Marine machine-building plants are the third type of ship-
building industry enterprise. Their purpose is series manu-
facture of ship equipment. Because the Soviet shipbuilding in-
dustry has standardized ship equipment, much ship machinery,
many instruments, and various fittings for ships are effi-
ciently manufactured in large series in marine machine-building
plants. Marine machine-building plants are distinguished from
shipbuilding - machine-building plants, where various types of
ship equipment are manufactured, because as a rule the marine
machine-building plants specialize in the manufacture of one
definite type of ship equipment -- for example, steam engines,
ship instruments, or ship fittings. Marine machine-building
plants have different site requirements and are located sepa-
rately from yards in shipbuilding areas.
"The ship repair plant is the fourth type of shipbuilding in-
dustry enterprise. Its purpose is the repair and drydocking
of ships. The production structure of this type of enter-
prise has drydock facilities; an enlarged basin; crane facili-
ties to remove and install ship equipment; and a broad complex
of manufacturing, machine and assembly shops with all-purpose
types of machinery. Ship repair plants, in contrast to those
enterprises which build ships, are located in ship basing
areas, directly on the seacoast.
"0f the first three types of shipbuilding enterprises, the
yard and the marine machine-building plant are the most effi-
cient, economically, because they are very specialized and
cooperate more extensively than the shipbuilding - machine-
building plant type enterprise.
"There is no need to concentrate much machine-building
production in shipbuilding enterprises, in view of the com-
prehensive expansion of USSR industry. Apportionment of
marine machine-building among independent specialized enter-
prises permits series production of ship equipment and
S -E -C -R-E -T
Approved For Release 1999/09/08 : CIA-RDP79SO1046A000700160001-7
 Approved For Release 1999/09/08 : CIA-RDP79SO1046A000700160001-7
reduces manufacturing costs. This is why much machine-building
for shipbuilding, which developed in prerevolutionary Russia
within the shipbuilding enterprises themselves, was transferred
to corresponding branches of machine building or allotted to
independent marine machine-building enterprises, when Soviet
shipbuilding was expanded.
"Besides the four types of enterprises already considered,
there are other auxiliary types of enterprises -- the assembly
yards and delivery bases.
"The assembly yard ~borochnaya verf7 is an enterprise of
incomplete profile with the functions of assembly, rigging and
testing of ships, assembled from parts and equipment fabricated
elsewhere. Such an enterprise does not machine hull materials
or manufacture sections or blocks of the ship but receives all
components of the hull, piping, systems, and installations
from another shipbuilding enterprise. Assembly yards take part
in the prefabricated construction of ships by completing the
construction and delivery of the ship. From the location stand-
point, assembly yards are similar to full profile yards.
"The delivery base Jdatochnaya baz7 is an auxiliary type
of enterprise, handling the technical maintenance of ships
during their test runs before acceptance. Auxiliary enter-
prises or affiliates of the basic shipbuilding enterprise to
service ships during the test runs are needed in the testing
regions because maritime shipbuilding yards and shipbuilding -
machine-building plants as a rule are located in river mouths
and maritime test runs are conducted under sea conditions.
Delivery bases are located directly on the seacoast. Ship re-
pair enterprises perform the functions of a delivery base in
isolated cases, according to location. Special base types of
enterprises are established directly on the-seacoast to serv-
ice ships during test runs."
2. Shipyard Personnel and Work-Shift Distribution
Generally, shipyard personnel are divided into two main categories,
direct employees and indirect employees. Direct employees are those
whose work is chargeable to a specific contract or work order number.
This group constitutes about 75 percent of total employment in large
shipyards and ranges upward to 90 percent in small shipyards. Indirect
employees are those whose work, because of its broad nature, cannot
practically be charged to any specific contract or work order. This
S-E-C-R-E-T
Approved For Release 1999/09/08 : CIA-RDP79SO1046A000700160001-7
 Approved For Release 1999/09/08 : CIA-RDP79SO1046A000700160001-7
group is composed of administrative, clerical, maintenance, transpor-
tation, custodial, and like personnel and comprises about 25 percent of
total employment in large shipyards, ranging downward to 10 percent in
small shipyards. The range in percent of indirect employees is due in.
part to the size of the design and order departments. Most major ship-
building plants will have large design and order departments. Small
shipyards that probably build ships from plans developed by a lead
shipyard and also receive material ordered by the same lead shipyard
require only a small design and order department. The determination
of the estimated percentages of direct and indirect employees is a
judgment factor based on the known or assumed operational practices
by the shipyard under study.
According to A.M. Chelnokov's Organizatsiya i planirovaniya sudo-
stroitel'nogo predpriyatiya (Organization and Planning in a Shipbuild-
ing Enterprise), Leningrad, 1953, 6 'In a shipbuilding enterprise, CPYRGHT
ere are no operations which must be continued around the clock as in'
the case, for example, in some metallurgical plants ... . The duration
of the cycle of shipbuilding operations is calculated in work shifts
or in work days (if the enterprise operates on two shifts)."
The number of people employed at any given time is determined by
the work load and the priority status of this work load. Shift work
practices in the USSR are believed to compare favorably with those in
the US. Shift ratios reported in effect in the USSR in 1957 were
organized on the basis of 85 percent of the direct workers on the first
shift and 15 percent on the second shift. Although no percentage of
workers was given for the third shift, it was reported that only machines
that relieve bottlenecks are operated on this shift. It is common
practice in the US under normal operating conditions to employ certain
custodial and maintenance workers on the third shift. It should be
noted that the shift distribution of 85 and 15 percent is a percentile
distribution of current employment rather than a percentile division
of the maximum possible employment. Current employment is believed
to vary greatly among Soviet shipyards in relation to maximum employ-
ment or even optimum employment. Because there is practically no in-
formation on the number of workers currently engaged directly in ship
construction on the first and second shifts in any Soviet shipyard, it
is extremely hazardous to estimate a current rate of production based
on current employment. It is equally hazardous to estimate a rate of
increase above the current rate by arbitrarily assuming multiple-shift
operation when undoubtedly a large increase could result first by in-
creasing the current number of workers on the first shift.
In the US, under maximum operating conditions, an average shift dis-
tribution of direct employees is in the order of 60 percent on the first
shift, 30 percent on the second shift, and 10 percent on the third shift.
S-E-C-R-E-T
Approved For Release 1999/09/08 : CIA-RDP79SO1046A000700160001-7
 Approved For Release 1999/09/08 : CIA-RDP79SO1046A000700160001-7
S -E -C -R-E -T
Under optimum conditions, shift ratios are in the order of 82 percent
on the first shift, 16 percent on the second shift, and 2 percent on
the third shift. This US shift distribution compares favorably with
the previously reported Soviet distribution.
3. Actual and Norm Hours and Wages
The development of a production plan in a Soviet shipbuilding in-
dustry includes a labor plan and a wage fund. It is common practice
to prepare estimates of each in both the US and countries outside the
Sino-Soviet Bloc, but the Soviet system for making initial calcula-
tions and executing the plan differs considerably. An understanding
of the Soviet wage rate and norm hour system is necessary to determine
actual labor and money inputs and to equate properly Soviet data to
US data for purposes of comparison.
In the Soviet system the amount of work required by direct labor
to construct a ship is divided into technical norm hours. A technical
norm hour denotes an established amount of work to be performed in a
fixed period of time.
Technical norms are of the following two types: (a) technical
time norms, which denote the time established for the performance of
a task under certain organizational technical conditions and with the
fullest utilization of all means of production, and (b) technical
output norms, which denote the number of production units that must
be obtained under the same condition per unit time.
According to Kreps,
"technical norms take into account advanced technological
methods and the practices of production innovators. The
establishment of technical norms is a major factor in the
rational organization of labor. The technical norm system
is used to study and regulate a given technological process,
to introduce rational working methods into production, to
identify foremost production workers, and to organize so-
cialist competition. Because production conditions and the
nature of the equipment, tools, attachments, and operating
speeds are not constant but, on the contrary, change all
the time with greater mechanization and automation, the
technical norms must of course be reviewed periodically."
Wages are based on the technological complexity of the technical
norms. Because of the wide range in skills required to construct a
S -E -C -R-E -T
Approved For Release 1999/09/08 : CIA-RDP79SO1046A000700160001-7
 Approved For Release 1999/09/08 : CIA-RDP79SO1046A000700160001-7
S -E -C -R -E -T
ship, the skills of workers for purposes of wage determination are
divided into eight wage grades. Two forms of wages are used -- piece
work and time work.
Piece work is the principal form, and in this system the amount
of wage is the product of the piece-work rate, previously fixed for a
unit of output, and the actual number of units of output produced.
The time-work wage system is based on the time worked and the worker's
skill.
The piece-work wage system is used in Soviet shipbuilding in the
form of individual piece-work and team piece-work. In individual
piece-work the earnings of each worker are based on the percent of norm
fulfillment and not on the number of actual hours worked. In team
piece-work the earnings of the entire team are determined in the same
fashion, and the pay distribution within the team is based on rating
coefficients -- that is, on the degree of skill and amount of time put
in by each worker.
In the Soviet calculation of labor input in a production plan, a
shipbuilding enterprise is considered to be in operation from 300 to
307 working days per year. The actual number of hours worked by an
individual within a year varies according to the individual's occupa-
tion and longevity. According to Chelnokov,
"The regular vacation given workers is 12 working days.
Three more vacation days are given to persons engaged in pro-
duction and working in the given plant more than 2 years;
6 more days are given to persons engaged in heavy work (for
example, electric welders); 12 more days are given to persons
engaged in harmful and dangerous work (for example, benders
of hot plates); 10 additional days are given for examination
purposes each year to those studying while working full time
in higher and specialized learning institutions.
'!Maternity leave amounts to 77 calendar days. The initial
data for planning these leaves and interruptions for breast
feeding of children are the accounting data for the preceding
year, taking into account the annual increase in the birth
rate in the USSR.
"Government service obligations, for which the worker is
paid in accordance with his average wages, are established
by labor law such as service as a delegate, participation in
trial meetings, participation in conferences and plenums on
the rayon level or higher, participation in draft board com-
missions and assemblies, and participation of volunteer fire-
men in actual extinguishing of fires."
Approved For Release 1999/09 0> ~1A-k6TP79S01046A000700160001-7
 Approved For Release 1999/09/08 : CIA-RDP79SO1046A000700160001-7
Kreps J indicates that, for purposes of estimating, the average
annual time budgeted to each worker is 2,400 actual hours less 12 per-
cent, or 288 actual hours, for vacations, official time off, sick
leave, absenteeism and the like, which results in an average of 2,112
actual effective working hours per worker. Because the amount of
work required by the plan for annual production has been calculated
in the form of norm hours, the number of workers required to com-
plete the plan is based on an average fulfillment of 130 percent of
the norm hour plan -- that is, 10.4 norm hours of work are to be
completed by one worker in 8 actual hours. Therefore, for purposes
of estimating, one worker is required for each 2,745 norm hours, in
the current labor plan, for annual production.
1. Types of Ship Erection Sites
a. Inclined Erection Sites and Fitting-Out Quays
Ships erected on inclined ways usually are assembled from pre-
assembled subassemblies and launched when the shi-g is about 65 percent
complete. The ship is completed and dock trials are held at the
fitting-out quay. When only one ship is erected at one time on the
ship erection site, the ship is moved through two positions (one at the
erection site and one at the fitting-out quay). An equal amount of
time usually is spent in each position. When a ship erection site
is long enough to permit the simultaneous construction of one and one-
half ships, Soviet practice has been to build one-half of a ship at
the head of the site, and on launching another ship under construction
at the foot of the site, to move the one-half ship to the foot and com-
plete it while another half-ship is being constructed at the head of
the site. In this practice, three building positions are used, and an
equal amount of time is spent in each of the three positions.
b. Floodable Shipbuilding Docks and Fitting-Out Quays
Little information is available on this type of assembly. It
is believed that a ship is assembled from subassemblies and is about
three-fourths complete on launching. Because the time spent at the
fitting-out quay is considerably shorter than the time spent in the
dock, a total of one and one-third building positions is assumed.
c. Level Ship Erection Sites and Fitting-Out Quays
Ships built on level, or horizontal, ship erection sites are
either launched by moving the ship into a floodable basin, launched
transversely by controlled means, or launched by a vertical ship hoist
or a floating launching dock. The size of the launching facility
determines the maximum size of ship that can be built on the level
S-E-C-R-E-T
Approved For Release 1999/09/08 : CIA-RDP79SO1046A000700160001-7
 Approved For Release 1999/09/08 : CIA-RDP79SO1046A000700160001-7
ship erection site, although the site may be several times the length
of the permissible ship.
For ships that are to be assembled from subassemblies, it is
necessary to know or estimate the number of building positions on the
level ship erection site. Because these ships usually are about 95 per-
cent complete on launching, a much shorter time is spent at the fitting-
out quay than at any one of the building positions on the level ship
erection site. Therefore, the number of positions through which the
ship moves is the total number of positions on the level ship erec-
tion site plus the one-half position at the quay.
For ships that are to be assembled from structural regions,
it is assumed that the assembly of the structural regions constitutes
one building position. The joining together of these structural re-
gions on the ship erection site may occupy one or more building posi-
tions. Ships launched from the ship erection sites are essentially
complete, and the time required at the fitting-out quay is roughly
one-half of the time required at any one position before launching.
Therefore, the number of building positions is the sum of the follow-
ing: one during the assembly of structural regions, one or more on
the erection site, and one-half at the fitting-out quay.
- 34 -
S-E-C-R-E-T
Approved For Release 1999/09/08 : CIA-RDP79SO1046A000700160001-7
 Approved For Release 1999/09/08 : CIA-RDP79SO1046A000700160001-7
S -E -C -R -E -T
APPENDIX D
SOURCE REFERENCES
Evaluations, following the classification entry and designated
"Eval.," have the following significance:
Doc. - Documentary
1
- Confirmed by other sources
A
- Completely reliable
2
- Probably true
B
- Usually reliable
3
- Possibly true
C
- Fairly reliable
4
- Doubtful
D
- Not usually reliable
5
- Probably false
E
F
- Not reliable
- Cannot be judged
6
- Cannot be judged
"Documentary" refers to original documents of foreign governments
and organizations; copies or translations of such documents by a staff
officer; or information extracted from such documents by a staff offi-
cer, all of which may carry the field evaluation "Documentary."
Evaluations not otherwise designated are those appearing on the
cited document; those designated "RR" are by the author of this re-
search aid. No "RR" evaluation is given when the author agrees with
the evaluation on the cited document.
1. CIA. FDD U-3,054,766, 23 Sep 57, p. 1-70. OFF USE. Eval. Doc.
2. CIA. FDD Translation no 626, 1 Mar 57, p. 10-12, 22-29,
35-36, 106-109. OFF USE. Eval. Doc.
3. CIA. FDD U-3,054,766, 23 Sep 57, p. 1-70. OFF USE. Eval. Doc.
CIA. FDD Translation no 626, 1 Mar 57, p. 10-12, 22-29,
35-36, 106-109. OFF USE. Eval. Doc.
4. CIA. FDD U-3,054,766, 23 Sep 57, p. 1-70. OFF USE. Eval. Doc.
5. CIA. FDD Translation no 626, 1 Mar 57, p. 10-12, 22-29,
35-36, 106-109. OFF USE. Eval. Doc.
6. CIA. FDD Translation no 593, 18 Sep 56, p. 26, 358, 180, 181.
OFF USE. Eval. Doc.
S-E-C-R-E-T
Approved For Release 1999/09/08 : CIA-RDP79SO1046A000700160001-7
 Approved For Release 1999/09/08 : CIA-RDP79SO1046A000700160001-7
7. CIA. FDD Translation no 626, 1 Mar 57, p. 10-12, 22-29,
35-36, 106-109. OFF USE. Eval. Doc.
8. CIA. FDD Translation no 593, 18 Sep 56, p. 26, 358, 180,
181. OFF USE. Eval. Doc.
9. CIA. FDD Translation no 626, 1 Max 57, p. 10-12, 22-29,
35-36, 106-109. OFF USE. Eval. Doc.
- 36 -
S -E -C -R -E -T
Approved For Release 1999/09/08 : CIA-RDP79SO1046A000700160001-7
 Approved For Release 1999/09/08 : CIA-RDP79SO1046A000700160001-7
SECRET
SECRET
Approved For Release 1999/09/08 : CIA-RDP79SO1046A000700160001-7