POSSIBLE NIE ON YUGOSLAVIA

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79R01012A000700040047-8
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 10
• Document Creation Date: December 9, 2016
• Document Release Date: March 11, 1999
• Sequence Number: 47
• Publication Date: January 15, 1951
• Content Type: MEMO

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15 Janua:i7 1951
0MORANDUM TO THE NATIONAL EST114ATES BOARD
FROj : 25X1A9a
SUBJr-CT: Possible HIE on Yu? only,
1. HIE 15, 11 December, contains the most recent estimate of
the Yugoslav situation in very abbreviated form and it is believed that a
more comprehensive NIE would be of value. Furthermore, several factors
have developed since preparation of HIE 15 which bear on Yugoslavia's
position vis-a-vis the USSR and its satellites.
a. The strengthening of satellite forces, both in numbers and materiel,
has become more evident,
b. Statements of Yugoslav leaders have reflected growing concern
although they are still generally calm and determined,{
c. There has been a noticeable increase in Cominform anti-Tito
propaganda and there have been several charges and counter charges
of border violations exchanged between the satellites and Yugoslavian
d. Yugoslavia's rapprochement with. Greece is proceeding fairly smoothly?
(This has brought forth several. Cominform charges of "aggressive
plans",)
e. The US aid program for Yugoslavia has been implemented,
f. Yugoslavia has negotiated with France for arms and eventually
tripartite Western military aid may develop,, although moves in
this direction are at least temporarily in abeyance.
2. HIE treatment of this subject should cover:
a. Yugoslavia's internal stability and defensive capabilities,
b. Satellite strengths and capabilities in combination.
c. The degree of Soviet support necessary to insure success of a
satellite attack.
d. The prospects of satellite or Soviet-satellite military action
against Yugoslavia for 1951.
25X1A9a
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1. There is evidence of the reorganization and build-up of North Korean
forces, and of increasing activity-by the Chinese Con nist,, Soviet and North
Korean air forces in the area around Koreas Although there has been limited
contact with eneav forces, there are no reliable indications Chinese Cob-
nunist. preparations to withdraw a portion of their forces from Korea. Some
indications point to a lateral eastward movement of Chinese Coimunist elements,
but enemy dispositions suggest that no large-scale operations are Ukel,v be-
fore 1 February. Enem r jet activity has increased and jet training in Man,-
churia indicates an increase in enem6r jet capabilities.
25X6
Recent developments in China include:
a. The general build-up of Chinese Coat offensive strengtb;
by Defensive preparations, especially in M &nchuiri a, ' in coastal areas
and in South China;
00 Indications of preparations for an attack on the small Nationalist.
held islands off the southeast China coast;
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d. Indications of renewed amphibious training, defensive preparations
and air activity in the vicinity of Formosa, suggesting the possi-
bility of an attack on Formosa later in the year. (Weather con-
ditions probably will not favor such an attack until early- April.);
a. An increase in Soviet ground force advisers and technical personn l
who are now estimated to number at least 10, 000;
f. Increased air activity-and the possible arrival of new aircraft
at fields in the Fukien Province, and the prey sencee of jet aircraft
around. Canton;
g. Indications of military activity and a build-up of forces in the
area of Hong Kong, and extensive underground activity among Com-
munist elements in Hong Kong, suggesting possible preparations
for an attack.
h.. Evidence in Chinese Comm=ist propaganda of an intent not only
to dive the UN forces from Korea, but to strike other blows against
"imperialist encirclement";
i, Statements by Soviet Embassy personnel in Peiping that the Soviet
Air Force would help to defend Manchuria against UN air attacks,
A statement by a Chinese Communist official in pcao that Soviet
submarines will participate in the invasion of ornaosa.3 (There
have been fragmentary reports of Soviet submarine operations along
the South China coast, and of the establishment of a Soviet sib-
marine base on Hainan.)
Indoch
25X1 C,/+- indicate Chinese Communist plans and military
prepera a ntion in Indochina. 25X1 C
that intervention is planned before the Chinese Communist Nast Year (6 February).
Chinese Communist regular forces and large numbers of "volunteers" reportedly
are moving up to the Indochina border. Viet Minh propaganda reflects an emc-
pectation of early Chinese Commaunist military support. There are rtmiors
25X1 C but no reliable evidence that some Chinese Communist combat units may already
be in Indochina. that Viet 3.1inh uniforms are being prepared
for Chinese "volunteers" and that a joint Sino-Viet Minh headquarters, with
Soviet advisors., has been established at Nanning and is preparing plans for
Chinese intervention.
itheast_ _Asia
25X1 C 5. that Chinese Conm mists will soon provide mili..
taryr aid s Burma. Chinese Co=xmist propaganda attacks
on. both Burma and 2 Malaya are increasing, and include charges of the mistreat-
ment of Chinese nationals by those countries. 25X1 C
-3
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the presence of Soviet observers at an airfield in northern Burma. and the
construction of Chinese Communist defensive positions along the R frontier,
plans for a Comst-inspired coup in Thailand?
T
25X1C 6.
Sinkiang is now in progress.
EUROPE
an invasion of Western Tibet from
Satell3.tes
7. Po
a, Since July the strength of the Polish armed forces (including
security troops) has increased from 183,000 to 255D?00.
b. The Polish Armor is continuing to receive Soviet equipment, includ-
ing modern heavy tanks and artillery, pieces.
e. Airfield construction has been accelerated despite the winter
weatherp and additional jet aircraft may be arriving. 25X1 C
25X1 C the Polish First Fighter Regiment is to be
q!!1M s,)
d. Frontier and 3acurity forces have been increased.
e. The rationing of gasoline has been ordered.
8. Czechoslovakia
a. Security measures have been tightened and the activity of Weetexn
diplomats curtailed.
25X1 G bo indicate the presence in Czechoalovaa of
aov..et tiara a1 Korev.
=G ab Czech forces along the country's western borders have been increasede
25X1 C and11111111111 of the call-up of some reserves.
e, da The rationing of~gseoline and oil has been ordered.
-f -e since July the strength of the Czech armed forces (including security
troops) has increased from 132'000 to 147,000.
Comtaunist Party control within the Czech Arny has been increased.
The Czech medical profession has been placed under state controls
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25X1 C h. that Czech commercial airways will
u or e s er of National Defense---
? Strategically important highways in the eastern portion of the
country are being improved,
a. The rationing of petroleum products has been ordered.
9. Rm....uman,-,~,t
lo.
a, Hungarian armed forces (including security troops) have been in-
creased since July from 439500 to 70,000.
b, Forty-two "JS" he to "JSU" self-propelled artil1e2r
25X1 C Piece in the possession of Hungarian
troops.. and z?1A Budapest now believes the Hungarians have at least
100 such weapons. (Previously Poland was the only Satellite be-
lieved to possess this type of heavy Soviet-made equipment,)
a. Rationing of gasol-tn , sugar, and flour has been decreed.
25X1 C o
f. Civilian medical personnel are receiving training in military
-There is that jet aircraft are possibly_ being
assembled at- d factory near Budapest,
The training of Hungarian Air Force personnel is being expanded,
A new decree orders the registration of all citizene, male and
female; over 18.
Sri After 1 February all university students will receive military
training.
.i. The movement of foreign diplomatic personnel has beon drastically
restricted.
Hungary has formally protested to Yugoslavala that violations of
the Hungarian border have continued, despite repeated warnings?
11, 2112241
25X 1 Ca, some Bulgarian units have moved
closer to the Turkish border.
b. Fairly substantial Soviet gasoline shipments to Bulgaria and mare
strict gasoline rationing in Bulgaria lead'to a strong presumption
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of stockpiling,
a. There are widespread rumors in Bulgaria that an attack by Yugo-
slavia is imminent, =and in Yugoslavia both the general public
and high officials apparently fear an imminent attack by Bulgaria.
d, Since July Bulgarian armed forces (including security troops)
have been increased from 137,500 to 188,500.
e, 750 Soviet heavy-duty military-type trucks have arrived in Uul.
garia from the USSR.
bg a
120
a. A sharp increase in the number of Soviet military and technical
personnel in Tirana 25X1 C
b, There have been substantial Soviet shipment, of gasoline to Albania.
25X1 C c unidentified submarines have
been s2.gn~ea In cue ~uar1atisc Wa fairly large Soviet submss-In
base is being built in Albania.
13.
25X1 C c.
a,. Since October there has been an increase of about 30,000 in Soviet
occupation forces;
b. Along the borders of the southern part of the Soviet Zone, in
areas opposite the US Zone, Soviet troops are apparently replacing
East German Alert Police;
W six old 'airfields are to-be enlarged
M55by.. In view of difficulties created by bad weather, this
deadline suggests considerable urgency,
25X1 C d, gas masks have. been ordered
for the East German Police;
e. At a recent meeting of high Soviet and East German officials,
it was stated that the East German Police will be "put in a posi-
tion to defend the peace", will participate in joint maneuvers
with the Soviet Army in I' rch or April 1951, will be issued Soviet-
type weapons by mid-February, and will be indoctrinated to fight
with the Soviet Union to "preserve peace',
f? The Soviet Commander-in-Chief in Germax' has approved plans for
the organization of East G^rman Police in tactical units.
6-
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g? US military authorities in Germany estimate that the Alert Police
can be organized to form a 15- to 18% cadre for twenty-four di-
visions. To fill these divisions the strength of the Alert Police
would have to be increased from the present 50,000 to 2508000.
According to the US estimate, this goal could be met by the Im..
elusion of three additional age groups in the Alert Police recruit-
ing program. (G-2. Washington, estimates that, for the presents
Alert Police strength probably will not exceed 3 divisions or
8 regimental combat teams. A larger force would strain GDR man-
power resources.)
h. Fast German propaganda is following the Soviet line in express-
ing concern over the possible remilitarization of Western Germany.
Gerhart Eisler, Chief of the GDR Office of Information stated
on 7 January that "remilitarization (of Western Gcrmatg means
war just as Hitler meant war".
I. Soviet authorities have been attempting to obtain a quantity of
. fuel drums.
Rail construction around Berlin appears designed to reduce the
Soviet Zone's dependence upon West Berlin rail faeilitieso
k. Soviet authorities have cleared civilians from a 3-kilometer strip
along parts of the border adjacent to the US and British zones.
Soviet troops have moved into some of these evacuated areas.
1. Twenty percent of Soviet jet aircraft in Germany are on a 24-hour
alert, and the number of Soviet jets in Germany is increasing.
m. Permanent-type AA installations are being constructed around Soviet
military air fields in Germany.
n. Soviet occupation forces apparently are stockpiling food and other
supplies.
u, eugtr&
a.- Soviet authorities have ordered the assembly of heavy-duty flat
cars in Vienna;
b. The eastward movement of flat cars 25X1 C
c. The USSR is attem Bing to obtain a quantity of fuel drums;
da Gaa make have been issued to Soviet personnel and their dependents
tn Austr'ia? 25X1 C
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o. Soviet authorities have been requisitioning and renovating air
raid shelters, in one of which they are reportedly storing amnuni-
.tion and beds.
15. Northern EWue
25X1 C
h
a.` There has been a substantial increase in Soviet mill stj X1C
along the Finnish border and around Yhirmansk.
b, East German trawlers are conducting reconnaissance of Danish and
Swedish ports.
a. Some Soviet submarines have been moved from the Baltic to the
Northern Fleet (?urmar k and Archangel), apparently to gain more
ready access to open seas.
25X1 C d. that two unidentified submarines
recently obsarved in the Adriatic are believed to have been Soviet.
ASR
16. The 21 January speech of a high Communist Party official, delivered
in the presence of Stalin and a number of Politburo members, was devoted en-
tirely to an attack on the US. In contrast to earlier official Soviet pro-
nouncements, the speaker played down the prospect of a US economic crisis
and the inevitability of capitalism's downfall, and emphasized instead the
defeat of capitalism by military action. The spoor went on to reassure
his listeners that t2 USSR mould emerge from a major conflict stranger. than
before.
17. Various Soviet, refugees arriving in Vienna report that Soviet admini-
strative departments are being decentralized as a defense m auure, (These
are the first reports of such a development and should be viewed with caution.)
18. The USSR has bluntly warned France awl the 1RC that their participa-
tion in NATO violates their treaties with the USSR.
19. Soviet propaganda. attacks on Yugoslavia have grown in intensity and
bitterness.
25X1 C W. following
the Chinese ao is t rejection of the R cease-dire order Mr ha1 2*linm1w,
Commander of Soviet Far 'Fast Forces, was ordered to take the following pre-
cautions:
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a. Strengthen the curfew (in effect since Nov 50) at all militaaY
bases, important ports and in Soviet territory bordering Korea
and China;
b. Begin air defense practice in these areas;
a. Cancel all leaves for Poviet military personnels and recall those
on leave;
d. Disperse dependent and non-essential personnel from cities along
the Trans-Sib. I r.s and place greater restrictions on military
and defense industry installations located along the railway;
e. Enforce similar measures in the Port Arthur and Dairen areas.
21. S measures have been taken to forestall a US freeze of Soviet dollar
assets.
GENFItAL
.22. Soviet and Soviet-controlled propaganda continues to indicate the
gravest concern over the prospect of West Germany rearmament and to imply
that this program is certain to lead to general war.
23. Several Soviet and Conist officials recently implied in private
statements that the USSR may take direct military action.
2l4. Soviet-controlled propaganda has gone far toward preparing the peoples
of the Soviet Orbit and Communists abroad for major war,
25. US Communists are concentrating their efforts on key industries essen-
tial to the defense program,
26. For the past two months there has been heavy traffic of European Com.
monist leaders to and from Nbscow, possibly to attend briefings on impending
Soviet moves or shifts in Con mist tactics.
27. There are indications of preparation for "direct action" by Com-
munists in Japan, Italy, and the Philippines. Japanese Corimmnists reportedly
are organizing for guerrilla warfare. There is increased activity in the
para-milit 11 of the Italian Party. A corps of trained Chinese Commmist
25X1 C commandos has been sent to the Philippines to organize a guerilla
force in support of the Huk movement.
28. In early December there were several instances of jamming of radio
traffic in the European area. The US carrier "Coral Sea"s then in the western
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Mediterraneens reported serious disruption of its radio communications by
deliberate or accidental jamming. Near the sums time weather broadcasts from
Malta and operational aircraft corm uni.cations in Iceland encountered Sam dn
29. Bitter soviet and Satellite propaganda, attacks, against Yugoslavia
are continuing.
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