CUBAN SUGAR PRODUCTION ESTIMATES

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00429A001300030027-4
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 3
• Document Creation Date: December 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: July 24, 2003
• Sequence Number: 27
• Publication Date: May 28, 1963
• Content Type: MFR

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9T00429A001300030027-4
OR Mk hecORD
: uban Sugar Production estimates
1962, the Cuban sugar mills ground on Laterthan
t.ut the last of then finally halted in early July, brt
cLase to the sugar harvest season. Figures on tbe tote
were announced ea 9 July. A total of 4.815 million metr
ere produced last season.
11063 ere
on t
1
Y fall sowhere
*aeon, depending of heavy rains,
ready been reported in zOa areas.
. bare are several ways to estimate total production
t still somewhat before the end of the Amason.
u. Thic tawniest method is to assume that production
ding at the same rate as last year. la I May 1962,
million tons of the 4.8 million final figure had been
dt and another ms was added between I May and early July.
same date this year, only 3.1 nillion tens had been prok-
assuning that the 3.1 million tons were increased by the
ch Raul Castro claimed on I May still remained "to be
4" this year's final crop would be about 3.7 million tons.
Ibis method, which was used in certain estimates
p rtment of Agriculture, has several weahnessee. thief
is the uncertainty of the onslaught of heavy rains,
harvesting has to stop. Heavy rains this year had
begun in some parts of Cuba by 20 May, while on the other
tlana,the rains were unusually late in starting last year.
v'erthermore, greater efforts to achieve an early harvest were
arganized this year. It seems litely, therefore, that therv
WRE Lena that 207; additional still collectible on I May.
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0. Another method--one favored by CR-.-is to apply
pr le extraction rate to the whole cane crop as "esti-
ted standing" for harvesting quota purposes by the Cuban
overnment. The Cuban government announced that some 36 million
tong oi cane were standing in the fields at the beginning of
this season. This figure was to be used as a guide for setting
tailed quotas for harvesting targets, on which incentive
:1=e-ei5e5 were to be based.
plication of an average annual Cuban extraction
:at of 1.2.516 to the 36 million tons quota figure results in
AAXiMUM estimate of sugar production of 4.5 million tons.
the extraction rate this year is reported to have been considerably
however, because this wasa wuch wetter growing season
than average?leading to lusher growth with a reduced sugar con-
f?nt. Up to the end of March the extraction rate was only 11.2
oercent. This rate usually goes up slightly in April. Figuring
at an annual average rate of 11.5 percent, the crop this year
-4out4 be about 4.15 million tons. Out this method is completely
-lependent on assuming the validity of Cuban announcement of
utandinK cane at the beginning of the harvest. As stated above
the figures were essentially only quota guides; and there is no
ieason to suppose they were not consciously inflated--i.e., set
oeroximately equal to last year's level.
!either of these methods takes into consideration
ant changed factors as: the damage caused the cane
root stock by many of last year's unskilled canecutters; the
, admitted by Cuban leaders, that this year's much-toutsn
fanccutting machines wasted some of the cane; the increasing
,*elleral apathy and poor morale of many canecutters; current
yemag caused by insects; breakdowns in the mills; and increased
osootage. Renorts of these difficulties have been so persistent
tiat.3ing the past months that a 4 million ton level should now be
ertied at best as a maximum figure.
Direct estimates of the total current production ex
-ected tiave come from many sources claiming a first-hand know.-
Ledge
of the crop. Most of these--being either sugar brokers
ugees--may be suspect because of their special biases or
?-her coal interests In underestimating Cuban production. There
:lave been other direct estimates, however, which appear to have
considerable validity. Three off-the-record estimates of this
'carts crop by Carlos Rafael Rodriguez, Cuban agricultural chief,
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oeen eportedl
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Two of these aRari_SUAI_IDIgl_pre
.b million tons. The otherr
was 4.0 million tons.
. The progress of current harvesting a
as well as the total evidence
to a close, seem to confirm these earlierCuban esti-
and suggest strongly that the final figure will fall
.0 million tons of sugar in 1963.
:X..;1 has for the past many weets consistently estimated
thRt the crop would fall below 4.0 million; (ER, on the other
tatIrt has grudgingly lowered its estimate from 4.5 to 4.2 and
recently to 4.0.
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