QUARTERLY ESTIMATE OF THE PRODUCTION OF AIRCRAFT IN THE SINO-SOVIET BLOC APRIL-JUNE 1955

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
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• Document Page Count: 12
• Document Creation Date: November 9, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 27, 1998
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: October 3, 1955
• Content Type: IM

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CIA INTERNAL USE ONLY
INTELLIGENCE MEMORANDUM
4
QUARTERLY ESTIMATE OF THE PRODUCTION OF AIRCRAFT
IN THE SINO-SOVIET BLOC
APRIL-JUNE 1955
CIA/RR IM-414
3 October 1955
WARNING
THIS MATERIAL CONTAINS INFORMATION AFFECTING T:t
NATIONAL DEFENSE OF THE UNITED STATES WITHIN THE
MEANING OF THE ESPIONAGE LAWS., TITLE 18, USC, SECS.
793 AND 794, THE TRANSMISSION OR REVELATION OF
WHICH IN ANY MANNER TO AN UNAUTHORIZED PERSON IS
PROHIBITED BY LAW.
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
Office of Research and Reports
CIA INTERNAL USE ONLY
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FOREWORD
This publication is the first in a series to be issued on a
quarterly basis summarizing production of aircraft in the Sino-Soviet
Bloc. The estimates presented are intended to supersede those con-
tained in previous CIA reports and are published to satisfy consumer
requests for the most recent estimates of aircraft production in the
Bloc. Both the methodology and the technical terms employed in
previous reports have been utilized in the present report. Changes
in. the estimates have resulted from later information and analysis
rather than from any methodological change. No interagency coordina-
tion has been attempted, and no dissemination of this memorandum
outside of CIA is planned.
S-E-C-R-E-T
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FOREWORD
This publication is the first in a series to be issued on a
quarterly basis summarizing production of aircraft in the Sino-Soviet
Bloc. The estimates presented are intended to supersede those con-
tained in previous CIA reports and are published to satisfy consumer
requests for the most recent estimates of aircraft production in the
Bloc. Both the methodology and the technical terms employed in
previous reports have been utilized in the present report. Changes
in the estimates have resulted from later information and analysis
rather than from any methodological change. No interagency coordina-
tion has been attempted, and no dissemination of this memorandum
outside of CIA is planned.
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CIA/RR IM-1+11. S-E-C-R-E-T
(ORR Project 33.934)
QUARTERLY ESTIMATE OF THE PRODUCTION OF AIRCRAFT
IN THE SINO-SOVIET BLOC*
APRIL-JUNE 1955
1. Production.
From the first to the second quarter of 1955 the production of
aircraft in the Sino-Soviet Bloc declined about 3 percent, in numbers
of aircraft produced.** The decline is principally in the output of
fighter aircraft in the USSR, where the production of the Fresco
(Mig-17) is being replaced by the production of later models. In
contrast to the reduction in numbers, an increase of about 4 percent
in total airframe weight produced was reached during the second quar-
ter of 1955. This increase results from the trend to'Frard greater
weight in modern aircraft. A specific example of this trend in the
current estimate is the conversion from the production of the Fresco
at certain Soviet plants to that of later models which weigh 50 to
60 percent more than the Fresco.
The USSR produces most of the aircraft manufactured in the Sino-
Soviet Bloc. Of the 2,1+31+ aircraft produced during the .second quarter
of 1955, 2,121 aircraft, or about 87 percent, were produced in the
USSR,*** and the remainder, 313 aircraft, were produced in the
European Satellites.**** There is still no indication that Communist
* The estimates and conclusions contained in this memorandum
represent the best judgment of ORR as of 15 September 1955.
** The estimated production of aircraft in the Sino-Soviet Bloc
from 1953 to mid-1955, by number, is given in Table 1, p. 2, below,
and in Table 2, p. 3, below, by airframe weight.
*** the production of aircraft in the USSR, from 1953 to mid-1955,
by number, is given in Table 3, p. 5, below, and by airframe weight,
in Table 1+, p. 6, below.
**t* The production of aircraft in the European Satellites from 1953
to mid-1955, by number, is given in Table 5, p. 7, below, and by airframe
weight, in Table 6, p. 8, below.
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China or the Asiatic Satellites are producing aircraft. On the basis
of airframe wei?;ht, 94 percent of the production in the Sinc-Soviet.
Bloc took place in the USSR. The difference between the Soviet shard
of the production on a weight basis as opposed to a unit basis is
explained by the production of relatively lighter aircraft by the
European Satellites.
Combat aircraft comprised. about 57 percent, of the total aircraft
production, in units, during the second quarter of 1955. This pro-
portion remains essentially unchanged from the first quarter of 1955?
Table 1
Estimated Production of Aircraft in the 3ino Soviet Bloc, by Number
1953 to Mid-1955
Tie of Aircraft 1953 1954
Heavy 0 16
Medium 147 181
Light 1,384 1,276
? Jet fighters 4,414 4,423
Ground attack 457 207
Transports 1,662 1,681
Trainers
Jet 522 1,265
Piston 877 1,077
Others aJ 728 794
Total 10,191 10,920
lst 4
uarter 2d Quarter
13
17
1
85
9
1
321
321
14
012
916
30
30
239
249
363
363
284
291
170
153
2
1
517
;
2,434
a. Helicopters, gliders, and seaplanes,.
2 -
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Estimated Production of Aircraft in the Sino-Soviet Bloc, by Weight
1953 to Mid-1955
Thousand Pounds of Airframe Weight J
1955
Type of Aircraft
1953
1954.
1st Quarter
2d Quarter
Jet bombers
Heavy
0
1,800
1,460
1,910
Medium
7,674
9,240
4,340
4,805
Light
25,410
23,360
5,840
5,840
Jet fighters
31,446
33,214
7,684
7,661
Ground attack
3,700
1,676
243
243
Transports
9,240
9,860
1,906
2,106
Trainers
Jet
3,348
11,206
3,115
3,115
Piston
936
1,394
588
608
Others
7,012
8,669
1,800
1,664
Total
88,766
100,419
26,976
27,952
a. These figures include the production of spare parts.
ID. Helicopters, gliders, and seaplanes.
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The importance of the USSR as the primary producor again is emphasized
by the fact that roughly 90 percent of the production of combat aircraft
in the Sino-Soviet Bloc took place in the USSR. i
2. New Types.
Present estima,~es have been revised considerably from those of
previous CIA repor-as as a result of the new aircraft displayed by
the USSR during recent public displays.* The Bison, a 4-jet heavy
bomber, of which a total of 21, has been seen, is believed, on the
basis of Bison flights from and Bisons seen on the factory airfield,
to be in production at Factory No. 23 in Moscow. The two new
fighter aircraft - - the Farmer, a Mig day-fighter, and the Flashlight,
an all-weather interceptor -- are being phased i'to production at
Soviet fighter plants which previously produced dr currently produce
the Fresco. Production of the new large helicopter, the Horse, is
estimated to have begun at Factory No. 82 in Moscow, which formerly
produced the Hound (Type 36), a smaller helicoptq.r. Horses were
recently sighted in the vicinity of Factory No. 52. The Camel, a
twin-jet transport aircraft, is the most recent model displayed by
the USSR. It is e:;timated that the Camel is still in the prototype
stage because only one has been seen to date. Factory No. 84 in
Tashkent, which has produced most of the large Soviet transport
aircraft in the past, quite possibly will be the production site
for the Camel. The new Bear, a 4-turboprop heavy} bomber, currently
is not considered to be in production. At least seven of these
aircraft are known to be in existence from recent sightings, but
there has been no Firm indication that series production of the
Bear is taking place at any of the Soviet plants.,
V_ The rehearsals curing April for the canceled a irshow of 1 May 1955
and the actual Aviation Day Airshow of 3 July 19515.
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Table 3
Estimated Production of Aircraft in the USSR, by Number'
1953 to Mid-1955
1955
Type of Aircraft
1953
1954
1st Quarter
2d Quarter
Jet bombers
Heavy
0
16
13
17
Medium
147
181
85
94
Light
1,384
1,276
321
321
Jet fighters
4,119
3,964
897
798
Transports
Trainers
1,662
1,681
239
249.
Jet
522
1,176
294
294
Piston
684
828
207
207
Others a/
683
770
158
141
Total 9,201 9,892 21214 2,121
a. Helicopters, gliders, and seaplanes.
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Table 4 1
Estimated Production of Aircraft in t~e USSR, by Weight
1953 to Mid-1955
Thousand Pound?s of Airframe Weight a
1955
Tie of Aircraft
1953
1954 lst
Quarter
2d Quarter
Heavy
0
1,800
1,460
1,910
Medium
7,674
9,240
4,340
4,845
:Light
25,410
23,360
5,840
5,840
Jet fighters
29,662
30,443
6,989
6,948
Transports
9,240
9,860
1,906
2,106
Trainers
Jet
3,348
10,635 1
2,673
2,673
Piston
727
960 {
259
259
Others b
6,957
8,652 1
1,786
1,650
Total
8 018
94,950
E5,253
26,191
a. These figures include the production oflspare parts.
b. Helicopters, gliders, and seaplanes. j
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Table 5
Estimated Production of Aircraft in the European Satellites, by Number
1953 to Mid-1955
Units
1955
Country
Type of Aircraft
1953
1954
1st Quarter
2d Quarter
Czechoslovakia
Jet fighter
294
394
69
69
Ground attack
457
207
30
30
Jet trainer
0
89
69
69
Piston trainer
66
165
71
78
Others
25
0
6
6
Total
842
855
245
252
Poland
Jet fighter
1
65
46
49
Piston trainer
0
6o
0
0
Total
1
125
46
49
Bulgaria
Piston trainer
103
0
0
Rumania
Piston trainer
24
24
6
Hungary
Others
20
24
6
Grand total
990
1,028
303
313
-7-
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Estimated Productior of Aircraft in the European Sp.tellites, by Weight
1953 to Mid-1955 I
Table 6
of Airframe Weight
Country
TypE of Aircraft
1953
119954 ls
ter
2d. Quarter
Czechoslovakia
Jet fighter
1,775
2,380
~
417
417
GroL.nd attack
3,700
1,676
243
243
Jet trainer
0
57:L
442
442
Piston trainer
72
34:9
324
343
Others
10
10
5,588
4,971a'
1, 436
1,455
Poland
Jet fighter
9
391
278
296
Piston trainer
0
6;+
0
0
Total
2
45
278
Bulgaria
Piston trainer
116
0
0
Rumania
Piston trainer
21
21
2
6
Hungary
Others
14
1'Z
4
4
Grand total
5,748 5,469
1723 1,761
These figures include the production of spare
parts.
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