JPRS ID: 10627 USSR REPORT METEORLOGY AND HYDROLOGY NO. 4, JAPRILY 1982

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• Content Type: REPORTS

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J PRS L/10627
2 JuLY 1982
USSR Report
METEOROLOGY AND hYDROIOGY
No, 4,. APRL! 3982-
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,TPAB. L/10627
2 Ju1X 1982
USSR REPORT
METEOROLOGY AND HYDROLOGY
No. 4, 'April 1982
Translation of the Russian-language monthl.y journal METEOROLOGIYA I
GIDROLOGIYA published in Moscew by Gidrometeoizdat.
CONTENTS
*Mesoscale NumericaY Weather Forecas ting....o . 1
* Application of Objective Analysis f or Computing Gradients in Lagrangian
Method for Integrating Prognostic Equations 2
*Numerical Pr ed iction of Pressure F ield in Regional Model Using Two Grid Types.. 3
* Problems in Ob3ective Analysis of Data From Indirect Meteorological
Observations 4
*Radioactive Contamination of Atmospheric Surface Layer Over USSR in 1980....... 5
*Space Correlation Functions of Air Humidity in Western Siberia and Kazakhstan.. 6
*Mean Latitudinal Water and Air Temperature Values for World Ocean 7
* Spatial-Tempo ral Vartability of Petroleum Hydroczrbons in North Atlantic 8
Waters
* Turbulent Structure of Natural Dens ity Flow in Its Formation Region............ 9
*Studying Trend in River Volume Changes for Evaluating Normal Runoff............ 10
*liydrodynamics of Erosion of Islands in Kiyevskoye and Kremenchugskoye
- Reservoirs 11
Evaluation of Influence of Meteorological Factors on Biological Productivity 12
of Lands
- * Method for Measuring Vertical Ozone Distribution by Optical Method on 23
Meteorolog ical Rockets.......................................................
*Denotes article ahstracted by JPRS
- a - [III �'USSR - 33 S&T FOUO]
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Available Atmospheric Potential Energy and Its Transformation Iiito
21.
KineCic Form
*Review of Monograph by I. V. Busalayev: 'Complex Water Management Systems
(Methods for_ Hydrological Validation, Modeling and Optimization of
Decisions)' [Slozhnyye vodokhozyaystvennyye sistemy (Metody gidro-
logicheskogo obosnovaniya, modelirovaniya i optimizatsii resheniy)]
Al.ma-Ata, "Nauka," 1980, 230 Pages 25
~Activities at USSR State Committee on Hydrometeorology and Environmental
Monit-ot�ing 26
* Conferences, Me2tings and Seminars 27
*:Vew Salinity Scale and I3ew Equation for State of Sea Water 28
* Notes From Abroad 29
' * Obituary of Ruvim Leyzerovich Kagan (1928-1981) 31
~
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I
MESOSCALE NUMERICAL WEATHER FORECAST?NG
A
UDC 551.509.313.001.573
Moscow METEOROLOGIYA I GIDROLOGIYA in Russian No 4, Apr 82 (manuscript received
14 Jul 81) pp 5-15
[Article by N. F. Vel'tishchev, dactor of physical and mathematical sciences,
A. A. Zhelnin, V. Z. Kisel'nikova, Ye. M. Pekelis and D. Ya.' Pressman, candi-
dates of physical and mathematical sciences, USSR Hydrometeorological Sci-
entific Research Center]
[Abstract] Existing mesoscale models in most cases are specialized and intended
for investigating individual atmospheric processes; at present there is, not
even one sufficiently complete mesoscale nonhydrostatic model which can be used
for prognostic purposes. The authors felt that the results obtained with spec-
ialized models can be used as a foundation for more universal mesoscale models
of prognostic importance. Such a model is presented here; it was developed at
_ the USSR Hydrometeorological Center. It was formulated in such a way that it is
possible to make a short-range forecast of the principal meteorological ele-
ments: temperature, pressure, three velocity components, humidity, cloud cover
and precipitation with direct modeling of the mesoscale processes exerting a sig-
nificant influence on weather cond itions. The predictable elements include cloud
cover and precipitation and moisture transport in the atmosphere (with parameter-
ization of its phase transitions). Radiation transfer processes are iricluded.
Processes of transport of heat and moisture in the active soil layer with a
depth of about a meter are included fn the model for a more detailed allowance
for the processes of heat and moisture exchange between the atmosphere and the
underlying surface. As the initial equations use was made of the deep convection
equatiuns proposed by Y. Ogura, et al. (J. ATMOS. SCI., Vol 19, No 2, 1962) and
R. Wilhelmson, et al. (J. ATMOS. SCI., Vol 29, No 7, 1972). The3e equations were
supplemented by the corresponding moisture transfer equations and the equations
for the transport of heat and moisture in the upper meter soil layer. Figures
~
2; ref erences 20: 7 Russian, 13 Western.
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UDC 551.509.313
APPLICATION OF OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS FOR COMPUTING GRADIENTS IN LAGRANGIAN METHOD
- FOR INTEGRATING PROGNOSTIC EQUATIONS
Moscow METEOROLOGIYA I GIDROLOGIYA in Russian No 4, Apr 82 (manuscript received
15 Jun 81) pp 16-20
_ [Article by B. Baktrbayev and V. V. Kostyukov, candidate of physical and math-
ematical sciences, West Siberian Regional Scientific Research Institute]
[Abstract] Eulerian representations of independent variables are usually em-
ployed in numerical forecasting methods. In synoptic forecasts the basis is
the trajectories method, providing a clear interpretation of developing pro-
cesses. As a mathematical expression it is possible to use the equations of
atmospheric dynamics in Lagrangian variables. The possibilities of these tra-
ditional approaches have reached their limits, dictating a search for new ap-
pr..oaches. In actuality, in the schemes which have been employed the require-
ments on the properties of the initial and predicted fields have often not been
satisfied; there may not be adequate accuracy in computations due to the high
~ values of the residual terms in the Taylor expansion. It is proposed that such
effects can be reduced by the use of variable grids adapted to the values of
local gradients. The article ttgerefore is a detailed discussion of the prob-
lems involved in application of tnis approach in the example of a barotropic
model of the atmosphere..For example, one of� the main diff iculties in inte-
gration in Lagrangiari variables involves computation of the gradients, since
in the course of a forecast the positions of the particles change and become
- irregular. Usually in each interval there is a reinterpolation of the values
of ineteorological elements in a fixed regular grid, from which the required de-
rivatives are then compu2etd. Here it is shown that the derivatives can be
found directly from a changing grid of particles by using the objective anal-
ysis prQCedure. There are three methods whiclt can be employed for this pur-
Pose: polynomial approximation, optimum interpolation and weighted mean. Each
is discussed and it is indicated that the most convenient is the weighted
mean method due to the analyti.cal form of the interpolation weights. The fore-
casting algorithm for each time interval consists of objective analysis for
- points at which the particles are situated at the current moment. Numerical
experiments are discussed; both real and model data were used. The success of
the described forecasting method is dependent on the accuracy in integration
of the system of differential equations and approximation of the gradients.
Figures 1, tables 1; references: 8 Russian..
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UDC 551.509.313.001.57:551.54
NUMERICAL PREDICTION OF PRESSURE FIELD IN REGIONAL MODEL USING TWO GRID TYPES
Moscow METEOROLOGIYA I GIDROLOGIYA in Russian No 4, Apr 82 (manuscript received
11 Jan 81) pp 21-30
[Article by W. Ahrens, East German Meteorological Service]
[Abstract] Meshed grids are coming into increasingly wider use with the Arakawa
C grid having considerable advantages in comparison with the so-called A grid.
The author here outlines the changes which must be introduced in order to em-
ploy schemes using a C grid. The model presented here employs a system of
- primitive equations of atmospheric dynamics and a semi-implicit scheme for
time integration. Particular attention is given to the behavior of the ampli-
tudes of waves in a linear case for two types of grids. The purpose of this
investi$ation was to ascertain how the form of approximation of the horizontal
- derivatives -exerts an influence on the behavior of wave amplitudes, especially
meteorologically signif icant Rossby waves. The difference approximations for
both types of grids are obtained using a central differences scheme, but with
_ appraximation of the terms with adaptation and diffusion the grid C has an in-
terval half as great as for grid A. Tao variants of the model are examined ap-
plicable to short-range forecasts for the period 1 March 1978-5 March 1979 (30
cases). The horizontal spatial interval was 300 lan and the values of the geo-
potential and wind variables were constant at the lateral boundary. A table
gives the mean values of ev3luations for the two cases. Improvement of vari-
ant C in comparison with variant A is significant for almost all lev.r.ls of the
model (1000, 850, 700, 500, 300 gPa), especially for 1000 and 850 gPa. Despite
- differences in variants of the model (change in the�form of the equations,
types of grids, filtering regime), they were quiLe identical same time in-
tervals, space intervals, number of points and time expended on the computer
for a 24-hour forecast (4 minutes). Accordingly,. improvement of evaluations of
the forecasts using the model with the C grid is quite convincing evidence of
the advantage of this variant of the model. Figures 2, tables 2; references 6:
4 Russian, 2 Western. .
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UDC 551.509.313
PROBLEMS IN OBJECTZVE ANAI.YSIS OF'DATA FROP1' INDIRECT METEOROLOGICAL OBSERVATIUNS
Moscow METEOROLOGIYA I GIDROLOGIYA in Russian No 4, Apr 82 (manizscript received
25 May 81) pp 31-37
[Article by A. I. Belyavskty and 0. M. Pokrovskiy, candidate of ph,ysical and
mathematical sciences, Main Geophysical Observatory]
[Abstract] Vigorous efforts are being made to use data from indirect observa-
tions in numerical analysis of meteorological fields. A generalized variant of
this method makes possible the direct use of data from radiometric observations
of outgoing radiation in a numerical analysis scheme. However, a two-stage ap-
proach is being developed in which the objective analysis scheme involves use
of the vertical profiles of temperature and relative geopotential, first recon-
structed using some method for solving the inverse problem. The authors sought
to evaluate the validity of the two-stage approach. For this purpose a study
was made of the three principal types of correlations in the distribution of
er'rors in the remote sounding method. Formulas were derived making it possible
to compute the theoretical values of the horizontal and vertical correlations
of errors. A comparison with the corresponding empirical data is given. It was
found that the errors in determining temperature by the indirect sounding meth-
od and the true va].ues are strongly correlated. The nature of correlations of
this type was clarified. The variability of all these correlations was invest-
igateds it is shown that theoretical e.valuations give a correct qualitative pic-
ture of the spatial distribution of the correlation coefficients. The signif-
icant seasonal and spatial variability of the correlation coefficients was
clarified. It is concluded that since allowance for many varying correlations
is difficult, but neglecting them leads to a decrease in the effectiveness of
the optimum interpolation procedure, in numerical analysis it is better not to
use the results of solution of the inverse problem, but initial data from
radiometric measurements, whose errors are uncorrelated under ordinary experi-
mental conditions. Figures 3; references 13: 8 Russian, 5 Western.
.
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UDC 551.510.72(47+57)
RADIOACTIVE CONTAMINATION OF t1TMOSPHERIC SURFACE LAYER OVER USSR IN 1980
Moscow METEOROLOGIYA I GIDROLOGIYA in Russian No 4, Apr 82 (manuscript received
10 Aug 81) pp 38-43
[Article by K. P. Makhon'ko, candidate of physical and mathematical sciences,
V. P. Martynenko, V. B. Chumichev and F. A. Rabotnova, Institute of Experi-
mental Meteorology]
[Abstract] During all of 1980 radioactive contamination of the surface layer of
the atmosphere over the territory of the USSR was at a very low level, but a
- nuclear explosion in the atmosphere took place in the Chinese People's Repub-
lic on 16 October 1980. A marked increase in the levels of total beta activ-
ity was observed in the USSR in the southern part of Primorskiy Krayseveral
days after the shot; there was also some increase in radioactive fallout in
the Kirgiz and Uzbek SSRs. However, most of the decay products first encircled
the earth before appearing over the western boundaries of the USSR, for the
most part in the southern part of the country. In the remaining part of the
USSR there was no appreciable increase in total beta activity but everywhere
fission products were detected in samples. The greatest increase in the concen-
, tration of radioactive products in the air and.their fallout was observed be-
ginning in the middle of the first 10-day period in November. The article gives
a careful review of the annual variat=ion of total beta activity over the USSR
during 1976, 1977, 1978, 1979 and 1980. Table 1 gives the concentration of
nuclides in aerosol samples for the USSR in late October and mid-November 1980
for Kursk, Riga, Moscow and Tashkent. All the observed parameters were charac-
teristic for nuclear shots set off in the atmosphere at a considerable altitude
precluding the possibility of capture of soil and its entrainment into a fire-
ball. Most of the fission products by the time of their arrival in the atmo-
spheric surface layer over the territory of the USSR were quite well mixed and
there was no significant change in isotopic composition in time or space. Fig--
ures 1, tables 2; references 5: 2 Russian, 3 Western.
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UDC 551.571(571.1)(574)
SPACE CORRELATION FUNCTIONS OF AIR HUMIDITY IN WESTERN SIBERIA AND KAZAKHSTAN
Moscow METEOROLOGIYA I GIDROLOGIYA in Russian No 4, Apr 82 (ma.nuscript received
25 May 81) pp 44-49
[Article by L. P. Kuznetsova, candidate of geographical sciences, and T. A.
Mozhina, Institute of Water Problems]
[Abstract] A study was made of the apatial structure of the air humidity
fields at the level of the isobaric surfaces 850 and 700 mb and the total
moisture content in the troposphere within the territory of Western Siberia
and Northern Kazakhstan. The spatial structure was represented by aerological
observations at 35 stations, including several stations on the western slope
- of the Urals and in the Yenisey valley. Aerological data were available only
for the 10-year period 1961-1970. The field of inean monthly atmospheric mois-
ture content values was virtually isotropic in all seasons other than summer .
when there are closer correlations in the NW-SE direction, which corresponds
to the direction of the prevailing transport of air masses in this season.
There were no substantial differences between the correlation functions of at-
mospheric moisture content computed for 20 stations in the Ob' and Yenisey
basins and for the 35 stations situated over the entire territory of Western
Siberia and Kazakhstan. It was found that the space.correlation functions com-
puted using data from aerological sounding stations regardless of their geo-
graphical location correctly describe the spatial structure of the air humid-
ity fields at tre 850- and 700-mb levels and total moisture content. It is
demonstrated that the space correlatioil func:tions, computed on the basis of
the mean monthly moisture content values, were determined with sufficienL re-
lj.ability for their use in objective analysis. Figures 4, tables 1; references:
6 Russian.
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UDC 551.526.6+551.524.34(261)(265)(267)
MEAN LATZTUDINAL jJATER AND AIR TEMPERATURE VALUES F0: WORLD OCEAN
Moscow METEOROLOGIYA I GIDROLOGIYA in Russian No 4, Apr 82 (manuscript receive4
14 Jul 81) pp 50-55
[Article L. F. Strokina, candidate of geographical sciences, State Hydrological
Institute]
[Abstract] Climatic maps published during recent years were used in determin-
ing the mean latitudinal water and air temperature values for the entire world
ocean for each month of the year. More than 31,000 values characterizing water
and air temperature at the points of intersection of a regular 5� grid were
used in determining the zonal water temperature (t0) and air temperature (ta)
values in the ice-free parts of the world ocean. Monthly maps were used for
this purpose. All these values are summarized in a two-page table. Among the
conclusions which can be drawn from this tabulation are the following. The de-
crease in water and air temperatures with an increase in latitude occurs non-
uniformly. The meridional gradients of tp and ta increase from the equator
toward the subtropical latitudes in both hemispheres and then decrease in
the direction of the middle latitudes. The northern part of the world ocean
is warmer than the southern part. In summer in the northern hemisphere the
t0 and ta values are higher than the corresponding values in the southern hemi-
sphere by 1-4�C in the tropical and by 5-7�C in the extratropical latitudes.
In winter the temperature regime in the two hemispheres differs to a lesser
degree.. In the subtropical and temperate latitudes the air temperature in the
northern hemisphere is lower than in the southern hemisphere. The mean tp and
t values for the northern hemisphere exceed the corresponding means for the
southern hemisphere by 3.5-4�C in winter and by 5.0-5.4�C in summer. For the
world ocean as a whole the maximum tp aT.d ta values are in September anci the
minimum values are in March. During the period of heating the most intensive
- warming of the ocean and atmosphere is in the northern hemisphere from June
through July, and in the southern hemisphere from November through December.
During the entire year the effAct of the surrounding continents exerts a
stronger influence on the temperature regime of the atmosphere in comparison
witti the temperature regime of the ocean. Tables 1; references 19: 14 Russian,
S Western.
A
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UDC 551.464.(261.1)
SPATIAL-TENiPORAL VARIABILITY OF PETROLEUM HYBR0CARBONS IN NORTH ATLANTIC WATERS
Moscow METEOROLOGIYA I GIDROLOGIYA in Russian No 4, Apr 82 (manuscript received
8 Jun 81) pp 56-65
[Article by Ye. A. Sobchenko, candidaLe of geographical sciences, I. G. Orlova,
candidate of chemical sciences, V. A. Mikhaylov and R. I. Lisovskiy, Odessa
Division, State Oceanographic Institute]
[Abstract] The results of observations of three forms of petroleum contamination
in the North Atlantic for the three-year period 1977-1979 are given; these were
made primarily between the 5th and the 70th parallels in the northern hemi-
sphere. There were 16 000 observations of petroleum films, 2500 observations of
petroleum aggregates and 1050 observations of the dissolved-emulsified fraction
of petroleum hydrocarbons. Figure 1 is a map of the spatial distribution of pet-
roleum films during this period. The most contaminated zone was that between
the lOth and 50th parallels. These films are usually obser�ved in shelf waters,
regions of intensive navigation and transporting of petroy.-um. Table 1 gives
the content of petroleum films in different parts of the North Atlantic; Table
2 gives the temporal variability of the occurrence of petroleum films. The max-
imum occurrence of films is along the shores of North America and Europe, where
the pollution is 2-3 times greater than in the open part of the ocean. The re-
gions of extremal contamination were the same during 1977-1979 as during 1975-
1976. There were considerable year-to-year variations in the occurrence of
films in different zones. In some areas there is a tendency to a decrease in
the pollution level, and elsewhere an increase. Figure 2 is a map of the dis-
tribution of petroleum aggregates and Table 3 gives the temporal variability
of these aggrF.gates. This type of pollution is most common in the Gulf of Cadiz,
along the shores of Africa and America. Dyna.mic factors are responsible for
their concentration in the frontal zones of currents and at the center of the
Sargasso Sea. Table 4 gives the temporal variability of the dissolved-emulsified
fraction of petroleum hydrocarbons in the surface water layer in different zones.
All this work was carried out within the framework of the IOC-WMO Pilot Project.
Figures 2, tables 6; references 14: 12 Kussian, 2 Western.
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UDC 551.552:551.465.41
TURBULENT STRUCTURE OF NATURAL DENSITY FLOW IN ITS FORMATION REGION
Moscow METEOROLOGIYA I GIDROLOGIYA in Russian No 4, Apr 82 (manuscript received
20 Jan 81) pp 66-74
[Article by Yu. G. Pyrkin, doctor of physical and mathematical sciences, B. I.
Samolyubov and A. A. Kuznetsov, candidates of physical and mathematical sci-
ences, Moscow State University]
[Absr_ract] Expeditionary investigatiofts by the authors indicated that the dis-
- tributions of intensity of turbulence of a density current and its averaged
- characteristics are interrelated to the spectral composition of turbulence,
which varies in different stages of flow develapment. Tre measurements were
made in a sector of formation of a bottom stratified current of a fluvial sus-
pension-carrying flow entering a deep natural water body of the canyon type.
(The apparatus and the measurement method and certain aspects of the generation
and subsequent propagation of the current on the basis of its averaged para-
meters were described earlier (Yu. G. Pyrkin, et al., VODNYYE RESURSY, No 6,
1978; OKEANOLOGIYA, 20, No 1, 1980; VODNYYE RESURSY, No 4, 1980)). This article
essentially is a continuation of the work done earlier along these lines. Em-
phasis is on the period of autumn cooling of river waters and the receiving
water body when the formation of the density flow is attributable to mechan-
ical and thermal stratification, with a predominance of the latter. The meas-
- urements were made only during calms. Figure 1 shows the vertical distrib-
utions of the concentration of suspended matter, water temperature, current
velocity, intensity of turbulence and spectral density of fluctuation energy
in a bottom density flow at six points along a stream. The .text gives a detail-
ed analysis of the observations made in this reach. Figures 3, tables 3; ref-
erences 9: 8 Russian, 1 Western.
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UDC 556.165(47+57)
STUDYING TREND IN RIVER VOLUME CHANGES FOR EVALUATING NORMAL RUNOFF
Moscow METEOROLOGIYA I GIDROLOGIYA in Russian No 4, Apr 82 (manuscript received
15 ,Tul 81) pp 75-84
[Article by Ye. A. Leonov, candidate of technical sciences, and V. Ye. Leonov,
- State Hydrological Institute]
[Abstract] The authors investigated long-term variations in the runoff of major
rivers in the USSR and analyzed the possibi.lities of predicting the "projected
^nrmal runoff" using statistical forecasting methods. ("Projected normal run-
off" is defined as the mean long-term quantity anticipated during the period
of operation of a projected water management enterprise or for any stage in
= operation and determined from the value of the,norm for a past period with al-
lowance for the corresponding changes introduced into physiographic conditions
by man's economic activity and the trend in change in runoff in comparison with
the past period due to secular fluctuations of climate). Table 1 gives the nor-
mal and mean values of annual runoff of major rivers during different periods
(the rivers analyzed include: Severnaya Dvina, Neva, Vyatka, Volga, Neman, Don,
Ural, Tura, Tobol, Nitsa, Ob', Irtysh, Yenisey and Amur). The materials present-
ed here reveal that a statistical evaluation of water resources solely on the
basis of the long-term normal runoff and its extrapolation to the future with-
out correction for economic activity and the climatic trend is inadmissible.
The data indicate that in the long-term variation of runoff there are prolong-
ed tendencies to a dropoff and increase in water volume and that the change of
runoff in these phases is descrihed well by the equation for a complex exponen-
tial curve. The mean duration of the dropoff-increase period is 60-70 years.
For European rivers since the end of the last century there has been a nega-
tive water volume trend, the dropoff being 5-25%, whereas for Asiatic rivers
the volume has been 1-19% above the long-term norm. The analysis made it pos-
sible to predict water volumes for European and Asiatic rivers ior the year
2000 and the years 2020-2040. Figures 3, tables 4; references: 18 Russian.
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UDC 551.311.21:551.42(282.247.323)(282.247.325.8)
HYDRODYNAMICS OF EROSION OF ISLANDS IN KIYEVSKOYE AND KREMENCHUGSKOYE
RESERVOIRS
Moscow METEOROLOGIYA I GIDROLOGIYA in Russian No 4, Apr 82 (manuscript received
25 May 81) pp 85-89
[Article by B. I. Novikov, candidate of geographical sciences, and Ye. G. Glad-
kaya, Hydrobiology Institute, Ukrainian Academy of Sciences]
[Abstract] The authors determined the hydrodynamic erosion of islands in Dnepr
River reservoirs in the form of the temporal change in their size and voYume.
The investigation was important because it was found that the quantity of
silts accumulated in Kiyevskoye Reservoir was 3.1 times greater Lhan computed
and the corresponding factor for the Kremenchugskoye Reservoir was 2.1. It be-
came clear that this was attributable at least in part to the erosion of is-
lands in these water bodies. The islands were mapped and their areas and vol-
umes were precisely determined. The total area of the islands in Kiyevskoye
Reservoir was 21.0 km2; the area far Kremenchugskoye Reservoir was 94.5 km2.
_ In the upper reaches the islands were low and flat, essentially unflooded
parts of the floodplain. They were eroded primarily by level fluctuations, al-
though near the shipping channels the waves created by ships were a factor. In
the middle and lower reaches the islands were 5-10 m above the surface, hilly,
consisting of sand and loess, representing remnants of floodplain terraces
and channel banks. For these islands erosion is caused for the most part by
wind-wave processes. The initial survey was made in 1973-1974 and the repeated
survey was made in 1980. It was found that as a result of hydrodynamic erosion
the area of the islands has been reduced by 30-95%. The mean annual reduction
in area is as much as 5.3%. Thus, by 1980 the two reservoirs had received
128,500 m3 and 1,507,500 m3 of material respectively. The islands may be com-
pletely eroded away in 13-15 years. The cited figures are comparable to the
- annual receipts of the erosional products of shores. The islands are also a
source of a considerable quantity of biogenous elements carbon, nitrogen,
phosphorus, iron, calcium, magnesium, sodium. potassium and others. These are
_ capable of exerting an influence on water quality. Figures 2, tables 3; refer-
ences: 3 Russian.
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UDC 551.50:631.175
EVALUATION OF INFLUENCE OF METEOROLOGICAL FACTORS ON BIOLOGICAL PRODUCTIVITY
OF LANDS Moscow METEOROLOGIYA I GIDROLOGIYA in Russian No 4, Apr 82 (manuscript
received 27 Aug 81) pp 90-99
[Article by V. D. Skalaban, candidate of biological sciences, State Institute
_ of Land Resources]
[Text] Abstract: The article sets forth the prin-
ciples for evaluating the productivity of
lands on the basis of a set of natural fac-
tors using the dimensionless relative index
K1,2...,N = K1�K2...KN, where K1, K2,...,. Kv
are special indices for individual factors.
The author gives e.valuations of the prin-
cipal meteorological factors and their com-
parison with actual productivity.
The increase in the earth's population and the development of productive
forces is making increasingly timely the problem of the conservation and
rational use of land resources, being the "principal means of production in
agriculture and the areal basis for the siting and development of all branch-
es of the national economy" [6]. Accordingly, the USSR "is carrying out a
national land inventory involving the totality of reliable and necessary in-
formation on the natural...j,osition of lands" [6], and.a climatic survey is
being made which takes in the totality of agrometeorological information.
The required range of information on land resources is set forth in a defin-
ite system which includes the cadastral regionalization and classif ication
of lands. All this information can be employed in monitoring agricultural pro-
duction to the maximum degree if it can be used in obtaining some idea con-
cerning the productivity of lands with respect to different crops.
In this communication we set forth a general approach to solution of the prob-
- lem of multisided evaluation of the productivity of lands with respect to the
principal production factors and specific procedures are proposed for evaluat-
ing land parcels on the basis of the most important of these factors, the
most difficult to control, meteorological factors.
- The process of production of a product of plant cultivation can be represented
as one of the types of production subordinate to general patterns. With this
in mind it can be shown ttjat this final product is a function of many parameters
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F()R ()FM'1('IA1. U5F, l/N1.Y
x,. r.L, r.31 ...xN [I]. The entire range of factors can be divided into four
};ruups: light t , heat T, moisture B, nutrients q[2]� Each par-
cel iF, characterized by a definite set of values of these parameters, which
also determines its productivity with respect to one crop or another. In ac-
cordancia with the above, it can be written that .
M=f' (X1, X2, X3, X y
M =f (1, T, B, a)�
(1)
(2)
Here M is the productivity of the agricultural crap, expressed in the form of
total biomass and the quantity of commercial product oi some substance (for
example, sugars, oil, protein, etc.).
It is evident that for each type (variety) there is some optimum set o� val-
ues ip, To, Bo, qo which ensures the maximum productivity MO:
n'1o = f (1o, T,o, Bo, 90), _ . ' (3)
hence
y yof(I,T,B,9)� (4)
Here M/Mo is a function determined in a four-dimensional continuum and hav-
ing a maximum equal to 1 with ,Q,= 10, T= T0, B= Bo, q- qp, and a minimum
equal to 0 with some extremal value of at least one of the factors.
Different values can be selected as the generalized parameters 1, T, B, q.
Fnr example, the averaged evaluations af extensive territories are given by
the generalized indices: the relationship of the annual values of precipita-
tion and evaporability, annual sum of active temperatures, etc. More detailed
evaluations are given by the indices of moistening of the soils and growing
season temperature. It is possible to use still more detailed indices taking
into account the age requirements of plants for moisture, heat, etc.
In all cases it is better to express productivity and the factors determin-
ing it by dimensionless relative values. This procedure is employed by many
researchers and makes it possible to give comparable evaluations of various
types of objects.
For example, if the supply of plants with heat, moisture and light is not ex-
pressed in absolute values (degrees, millimeters, lux, watts, etc.), but in
fractions of the requirement for a given type (variety), it is possible to
give comparable evaluations for different crops and seek generalized expres-
sions for productivity with these relative indices.
A complexity in characterizing the productivity of lands by the use of equa-
tions (1)-(4) is that first of all, the parameters have a stochastic charac-
ter, and second, the production factors are related not only to productivity,
but also to one another. Strictly speaking, equation (1) must be written in
the following way [11]:
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M= ft (xl , X.), X3, . . . , XN, xl.'l , xl. 3 t. . . , XI. N, X2. 3 p x'>. 4 r. N,
x3.4 i x3.51 . . . , XaN. . . . ) � (5)
� I:rpuatlun (5) shows how diverse are the possibili;,2

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a relay connected to the wet-bulb contact thermometer was triggered and by
means of ventilation fans fresh air was fed from the street, which, heatir..g,
reduced the relative ai*- humidity to the stipulated level. This caused a gas
exchange such as is necessary for photosynthesis. A device of such a type was
used by I. I. Sudnitsyn and was described by hlm in [8]. Illumination was main-
tained at the Ievel 4000-5000 lux by DF.L-250 lamps.
Prior to the "tillering" phase the plants wete cultivated with optimum moist-
ening attained by capillary wetting fiom below with the subsequent outflow
of water through drainage openings. Beginning with the phase of "leaf tube
formation" different groups of pots were exposed to different moistening lev-
els, first of all by differentiated watering from above to the computed weight
and second by capillary wetting from below at different times. Watering from
above was better in maintaining a constancy of soil moisture in the course of
the experiment but it was nonuniformly distributed in the soil volume. Wetting
fram below resulted in a more uniform distribution of moisture in the soil
volume but there was a considerable variation in moisture content in the
course of the experiment.
In the maturing stage the plants were cut, dried at a temperature of 80�C and
wel.ghed. The mean dry weight of the plant was plotted on the y-axis in Fig.
la. Optimum doses of lime and NPK were applied to the soil in variant 1 in
the form of solutions of NH4N03, KH2PO4, K2SO4 salts. In variants 2 and 3 par-
tial doses of fertilizers were applied. In variant 4 the plants were cultivated
with an acute shortage of nutrients achieved by triple cultivation of the same
crop without the application of fertilizers. In variants 1, 2, 3 the curves
M= M(Y) have a one-dimensional geometric similarity, that is, with any stip-
ulated moistening the ratio of the ordinates of these curves is consta.nt
(Fig. la). If the values M of each curve are represented in fractions of
MOB, these curves 1, 2, 3 merge into a single curve (Fig. lb). A changP in
soil fertility to an equal degree exQrts an influence on Pi and MpB, not
changing their relationship. In the case of an extremely low level of supply-
ing of plants with nutrients their reaction to the moisture supply changes;
the optimum Y value is displaced into the direction of low moisture contents.
A zero productivity is not noted with the wilting moisture, but with a some-
what higher moisture content. Similar results have been noted by many authors:
with a low supply of nutrients (especially nitrogen) to the plants there is a
decrease in their resistance to drought and a reduction in moisture require-
ments; the lower boundary of optimum moistening is displaced into the direc-
tion of lesser moisture contents. These phenomena are observed when there is
ii considerable inadequacy of nutrients, which is inadmissible in production.
With a moderate insufficiency of nutrients, causi;zg a decrease in productiv-
ity by a factor of 2-2.5, the correlation between the relative M/Mp value
and Y is stable and is described by the equation which we proposed in [7]
M/MOB - 1 - ~ Y - 2� (6)
- The data cited by V. S. Mezentsev using materials from a mass analysis of the
yield of wheat as a f unction of soil moistening coincide with our conclusion:
� with different levels of soil fertility (differences in crop yield by a fac-
tor of 2) the dependences of crop yield on moistening are described by sim-
ilar curves [5], which, being scaled in accordance with our proposal, merge
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into one, being approximated fairly well by equatlon (6).
M
O8
B
0,6
0,4
0,2

0, B - i ~ 6)
i
O,F � ~ 1,'
~
Fig. 2. Light curves of photosynthesis of wheat sprouts with diff erent C02
concentraCions in air (according to [41). 1) illumination in thousands of
lux. 1) 0.28%, 2) 0.13%, 3) 0.05% C02.
The influence of the illumination factor on the productivity of crops with a
different supply of the elements necessary for the forming of production
is manifested similarly. Figure 2,a shuws data illustrating this influence.
It is easy to see the analogy with Fig. la,b. With high and moderate supply
of photosynthesis with C02 there is a geometric similarity of curves 1, 2
cahich would enable us to approximate them with the singl.e equation
A1 ~p, - 1 - U,22 (L:_n20_)2
IQuOI) ' ~

The extremely low level of supplying of C02 (curve 3) impairs this pattern
similarly to Fig. 1: an increase in the intensity of illuminativn cannot be
realized due to the insufficiency of C02 and photosynthesis is maintained at
a level corresponding to ^12000 lux.
The noted pattern is observed in numerous series of curves constructed by
D. I. Shashko for the correlation between crop yield and atmospheric moisten-
ing in regions with different heat supply [12].
M(T,A)
M!!,Bo? 1 M(T Ba)
7 P
!
"o f
M M
To
/ ,r~ ~
\ �
do B \ .
B~
B~
~ rI
Fig. 3. Dependence of productivity M/MOBT on moistening B and heat supply T
indices. a) dependence of MfMOBT on B against different temperature back-
ground; b) dependence of M/MOBT on T against different moistening background;
c) dependence of M/MOBT on B and T.
'I'liV (IL-E)Cndence of the nroductivity production functions on any factor was an-
_ alyzed by Heddi and Dillon applicable to different types of agricultural pro-
- duction [9]., As a result they demonstrated that the production function of
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~ any factor can be represented by a family of such curves, each of which cor-
responds to a definite value of another factor. To this conclusion we add
that with high levels of the "other" factor the curves have a uniform geo-
metrical similarity, which makes it possible to represent them in relative
units in the form of one generalized curve,and that with adequately low lev-
- els of the "other" factor the similarity is impaired in the direction of a
convergence of the boundaries of the admissible and optimum values of the
studied factor, in the direction of a reduction of the tolerance limits rel-
ative to this factor. The experimental data show that such an impairment
occurs with such low values of the limiting factor that these conditions can-
not be considered admissible for production.
Using these conclusions and making the assumption that under production con-
ditions not one of these factors lessens productivity to the level at which
the norma]. adaptation of plants to other factors is impaired, we will exam-
ine the complex influence exerted on productivity by two factors, such as
moistening B and heat supply T. Figure 3 scheLnatically shows the nature of this
influence. The correlation of different functions.of two variables, includ-
ing the production functions of productivity due to any two factors [9], is ex-
pressed similarly. In much the same way, we express productivity in fractions
of the maximum MOBT values corresponding to the optimum moistening and heat
supply values. With such an expression the changes in .Q and q within the
framework of the adopted assumptions are proportional to the change in the
numerator and denominator, retaining the form of the dependence M/MOBT -
M/M,-,p., (B, T). Using the assertion of a uniform geometric similarity of the
fami~y of curves in Fig. 3a, b, it can be shown that at any point 9i the
plane with the coordinates T, B the function M/MOBT = M/MOBT (B, T) within
Che limits of the region of its dptermination can be represented as the pro-
duct of the particular functions for one variable:
M
M
~OB = OB; OBT = OBT; (B, T) - M (Q)
ou
M
M _
(T)
Monr
A1 ~B~
Mnn
A'f
!T
(8)
MoT
B
our T
~ onr
OT = OT; OTCT = opt]
L3 - R01T
T'/. Tmir
on r
For the proof of equation (8) we will return to Fig. 3. Assume that some heat
and moisture conditions B1 and T1 are stipulated.
1N ( TOBi
M
(B1);
iN ( TIBI)_
A1
(BI);
M (ToBo)
MOflT
(TiBo)
Mou
T - 7 uur
T `b ronr
M (TIIfO)
M
(T,);
M (T1131)
'
M
(rI).
M (ToBo)
gosr
foBi1
H l
MoT
B-gonr
B fBonr
It follows from the similarity of the curves in Fig. 3a that
M (Tg,) - M (T~B,) - M (B,) = M (Bi)�
M (To8o) M (TIBo) MoeT Al"
T- Tonr Tf Tonr
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It follows from the similarity of the curves in Fig. 3b that
h1(T,Bo) _ M(Ti B,) _ M h1
Ml7oBol M (10 Bt) /uonT (TI) hlnr
_ Q-Bonr B4Bonr
y Expressing the sought-for productivity M(T1B ) in fractions of productivity
under optimum heat and moisture conditions MITOBO) we obtain
M(T,B,) _ M(T�R,)�M (T,B,) M M ~T A1 (BAi (7
M (To[to) - M (ToUo)�M (7o13t) MonT ~a~~ Monr A i~~n ' /liur
~ T�7onr B�Bonr T), Tnnr 'R I Bonr
If, for example, M(T1B1) is 0.80 of M(T1B0), whereas M(T1Bp) is 0.90 of
_ M(T0 BO), it is obvious that M(T1B1) is 0.9�0.8 = 0.72 of M(TpBO)�
The principles set forth can be used in evaluating productivity on the basis
of a great number of factors. In a general case, if the productivity of lands
is evaluated on the basis of N factors (such as q is broken down into a number
of individual factors: pH, supply with nitrogen, phosphorus, potassium, trace
elements, etc.), as a comparison it is necessary to select the parameter
MoXl, x2,...2 xN = MpN, corresponding to the optimum supply for these N fac-
- tors. The dependence M/MON = f' (xl, x2,..., xN) does not have a geometrical
representation if N> 2; for its analytical expression it is necessary to have
recourse to the mathematical tool of N-dimensional space.
In this general case it can also be demonstrated that within the limits of the
assumption made, when under production conditions not one of the factors drops
to a level impairing the normal reaction to other factors (impairing the uni-
form geometrical similarity of the curves), the function M/MON = M/MON (xl, x2,
...,xN) can be represented in the form of the product of particular functions
for one variablE
_ ,1f A/ ;.r, � M- r � `Lf (x3 . . ' . MM (x~,.)
1.N iY1o.c~ ) Mu.r2 ~ Mox;~ ~ or,y ~9~
or written more concisely
/