NEAR EAST AND AFRICAN FERTILIZER PRODUCTION AND EXPORTS

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP86T00608R000600050048-0
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: C
• Document Page Count: 10
• Document Creation Date: December 16, 2016
• Document Release Date: October 19, 2004
• Sequence Number: 48
• Publication Date: May 28, 1975
• Content Type: MEMO

 Approved For Rel ,aj5k12,004(,iq%a&I :1 OIA4I:ZDP86T00608R000600050048-0
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20 May ].975
Ncar and h,i:r..i.on For ti .1?i'xoi:.
l?):c)ducti.on and ) >:po): t
1.. in ro?;1:1or1::c, to your rcc?lucst irrfor.n)r1t.:i.oil
on auiC} export pro:,pocts in I;c1Y1:r L
and in n!ajo.1: Nccu: T,a:.,L? and JLri.cmn oi.]. }?rocluc.ir,c3
count:): ics We have prCpa):C'C1 the attache,J...
2. if you have any fu):the ' c uc si.ic>ns on th:i.,3
materi.a] l))1cct c' conLact !,(,;F
At Lachmorit.:
As sta l'.c d above
Distribution: (S-Project 08332)
Orig. & 1 - Addressee
1 - INIO
1 - ll OE12, llD/OER, SA/LER
(28 May 1975)
Co 1\' F I I) f'! rlrI , IJ-
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CO1\1FIDErrIAL
Phosphate For..tilizer.
During the period 1976-79 Egypt will. remain a
minor, net exporter of phosphate fertilizers although
incrcasing consumption will shrink exports to an almost
negligible i:vel. By 1980 extension of the Assiut
processing facility should be completed and production
is expected to increase by roughly 750U. Export performance
gill peak at this time to around 65,000 metric tons
but decline steadily thereafter as domestic consumption
continues to expand at an estimated 5% annual growth
rate.
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rrtL
Units:
1,000 Met:,,--c Tors, -?_
Fa_;
(P205)
1970
1971
1972a/
1973b/
1974b/
1975b/
1976b/
1977b/
1978b/ 1979b/
1980b/
1981b/
1987-)/
1933b/ 1
924b/
192 /
Production
59
74
80
80
80
80
80
80
80 80
140
140
140
140 1
40
140
Exports or imports
(net)
(- equals export)
-23
-34
-35
-31
-26
-21
-18
-15
-12 -9
-65
-61
-57
-53 -
49
Consuiption
36
40
45
49
54
59
62
65
68 71
75
79
83
67
91
a. Preliminary.
b. Estimated.
CIA/OER
28 May 1975
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Nitrogen Fertilizer.
Total production is scheduled to increase steadily be-
tween 1975-1977 as Talkha I approaches its ratcd capacity.
Nevertheless, Egypt will remain a net importer during this
period as consumption continues to grow. By 1978 Talkha II
production will begin coming on stream and Egypt will shift
to a minor exporter of nitron~n fertilizers. Export per-
formance will peak around 1980 and steadily decline there-
after. Development of a new facility at Abu Kir is still
in a very tentative stage and we are unable at this juncture
to determine when this new capacity will bra made available.
CONFIDENTIAL
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LEI ypt --P rojeetc.cI unp7y_and_C~t;.u,nrIt::l.nn of N.J.troecm Fert::11I.zer
(in OOU's tons or N) `_
Production /1
1970 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1980 1982 1985
(Actua.l) r (Eat.) -____ __-.= __~_~Yro;}} ecte.d-r = - ___ -__~ :_~_?..~-.: _
Kima (A.swaan) 117 93 30
lleli:an - 10 21
Talkha I _
Talkha I. I.
78 100 113 120 122 125 125 125
31 42 42 42 42 42 42 42
- 75 98 98 113 117 117 117
- - - 196 249 249 249
Total 117 103 51 109 217 253 260 473 533 533 533
Consumrtj.on 330 327 381 381 409 410 438 456 492 506 514
Apparent Deficit
(Surplus) 213 215 330 272 192 157 178 ?(17) (41) (27) (19)
/1 production from Suez is xclucied. Tallcha I rated at 100% output once
Talkha II is fully operai.:i.n ;.
CIA/OLR
28 May 1975
CONFIDENTIAL
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Status of Fertilizer Projects in the Oil Producing
Countries of the Middle East and Africa
In the near term at least, there is little likelihood
that the Middle East and African oil producers could cause
an over-run of world wide production of chemical fertili-
zers. Of th~ 10 or so fertilizer complexes planned for by
these states; only one is scheduled to be ready before 1979.
Most of the other plants are still in various stages of
stu:' or negotiations; very few construction contracts have
been signed i
Saudi Arabia - Saudi Arabia has the most ambitious plans
for fertilizer plants of all the oil producers. At least
two, and possibly tour, 510,000 tons/year ammonia-urea plants
are currentl; under consideration. The projected completion
late for the first plant is mid-1979 but thus far no con-
struction contracts have been let. If all four plants were
to be completed on schedule the addition to Saudi production
would be 2,090,000 tons/year by 1982, still a fraction of
world production. Current production by the Saudi Fertili-
i
zer Company equaled 200,000 metric tons in 1974, about two-
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r
COi'~ DEN I
IAL
thirds of capacity. The plant produces only urea although it
is designed i,?.o produce ammonia also.
Iraq - As of late 1974 Iraq had plans for, two fertili-
zer plants, one a 600,000 tons/year phosphate plant at Khor
al Zuhair an l a 2 million ton/year urea complex at Al Kabeer.
i3oth plants were to be started during 1975. It is unclear,
however, whether plans for the two complexes will proceed on
schedule as the Iraqi government has just called for a mor-
atorium on'further development spending this year in the
face of lowet-than-expected oil revenues. The government
also plans to expand the Basrah fertilizer plaint which be-
gan production in 1971. Producti n from this plant thus far
is used internally.
UAE - The United Arab Emirates is considering two plants
in Abu Dhabi land one in Pakistan. As of May 1975 the govern-
ment of Abu Dhabi planned to award contracts at the end
of the year for a 27,000 tons/year plant to be built in
Abu Dhabi. 1, French proposed petrochemical plant which
would include a fertilizer plant has also been'under dis-
cussion for the same time period but apparently no further
action has been taken.
Both Abu Dhabi and Saudi Arabia have agreed to finance two
plants in Pal istan which if completed will boost Pakistan pro-
duction to 14J900,000 tons/year f;x-om its present 500,000 tons.
Libya -
Libya is the only country currently having a
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~ ~~GI=IDEN
contract: out for an export-oriented ammonia plant. The
West German firm of Predrich Uhde is scheduled to complete
a 1,000 tons per day ammonia plant by 1976. The product
of the plant, which is to be part of a large petrochemical
complex, is for the export market.
Kuwait - Kuwait has not started any new industrial
projects in the past two years although a number of projects
are under study. The government is presently consideriny
expansion of its existing fertilizer facilities by 550 tons
per day of urea and adding another sulfur acid unit.
Algeria - Algeria is currently exporting ammonium ni-
trate, ammonia and var?i v fertilizers from a number of
plants. The only ferti:;.izer expansion currently planned is
for a 1,000 ton/day ammonia plant at Arzew designed for the do-
mestic market. The contract for this project has been a-
warded.
Nigeria - Nigeria's current development plan emphasizes
agriculture as a principle sector of the economy. In an
effort to realize this, the government is planning to set
up its own fertilizer industry to supplant imports. The
plant will be either phosphatic or nitrogenous and in
either case will have fertilizer for export. The project
has not progressed past the planning stage and will not
be completed in the near term.
Qatar - The government of Qatar introduced plans to
'double the output of its just completed fertilizer.plant
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from 1,000 ton per day. No time table has been set for
the project 1lthough funds were budgeted in fiscal 1975.
Oman - chman plans a long-term urea fertilizer com-
p~ex at a cost to exceed $750 million. The project is at a
preliminary ~tageJhowever, and is not possible to esti-
mate a completion or starting date.
Bahraini- In early 1973 Bahrain and India announced
their intention to construct a chemical fertilizer plant
monia, the second to produce liquid urea and the third
in Bahrain; to be jointly owned by both countries. The
project has lanquished since late 19 73) howeverwhile
I
Bahrain sort out its priorities before spending the es-
timated $28 million that the complex would cost. If the
project ever goes ahead it will be built in three stages;
the first stage to produce 500,000 tons per year of am-
stage to produce phosphate.
CIA/OER
28 May 1975
CONFIDENTIAL
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