NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A026700010034-8
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 14
• Document Creation Date: December 16, 2016
• Document Release Date: March 31, 2005
• Sequence Number: 34
• Publication Date: July 8, 1974
• Content Type: REPORT

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National Intelligence
Bulletin
State Department review completed
Top Secret
8 July 1974
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National Intelligence Bulletin
July 8, 1974
CONTENTS
USSR-US: Post-summit commentary indicates Soviets'
satisfaction with agreements. (Page 1)
CHINA: People's Daily photo shows Chou En-lai
ing relatively fit. (Page 4)
ITALY: The government yesterday issued decree laws
implementing an austerity program. (Page 5)
ARGENTINA: Nuclear energy program being pursued.
(Page 7)
MEXICO: Unsuccessful hunt for guerrilla leader.
(Page 11)
FOR THE RECORD: (Page 13)
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National Intelligence Bulletin July 8, 1974
USSR-US
Authoritative post-summit commentary on the meeting
has begun to appear in the Soviet media. The reporting
indicates that the Soviets are sufficiently satisfied
with the agreements reached to stress the achievements
of this summit over the general usefulness of such meet-
ings as the main channel of bilateral consultation. The
latter concept also receives fairly generous play.
The foreign editor of Izvestia, the official gov-
ernment newspaper, confirmed general Soviet satisfaction
with the summit at the Spaso House reception on July 4,
but noted his own feeling that more in arms control might
have been achieved had not domestic difficulties limited
the President's freedom to negotiate in this area. Others
at the reception made the same linkage, one that the
Soviet media have been careful to avoid.
Generally, the Soviet comments at Spaso House were
predictably positive. Several Soviets took particular
relish in their belief that US critics of the summit
had been confounded. The Izvestia foreign editor took
a more cautious approach, however, saying that his news-
paper would await a review of US press reaction to the
summit before offering its own major commentary.
The Soviet turnout for the reception was heavy, with
deputy premiers Kirillin and Arkhipov heading the list.
Although a Politburo member, First Deputy Premier Mazurov,
was the ranking guest last year, the embassy doubts that
any slight was intended. The embassy was told on July 1
that Kirillin would be the ranking Soviet guest. The
absence of Politburo members may have been due to a
Politburo meeting on July 4, the day after the conclusion
of the summit. The following day the Politburo, the
.Presidium of the Supreme Soviet, and the Council of Min-
isters formally announced their approval of Brezhnev?s
report on the results of the summit meeting.
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National Intelligence Bulletin
CHINA
July 8, 1974
A front-page photo of Premier Chou En-lai flanked
by Senator and Mrs. Jackson, appearing in the Peking
newspaper People's Daily on July 6, seems designed to
reassure Chinese at all levels that Chou's illness is
not serious enough to keep him from important matters of
state. In connection with. the Chou-Jackson visit on July
5, however, the Chinese people were told for the first
time that Chou was in the hospital.
The People's Daily photo, which has also appeared
in the US press, contains no hint of Chou's hospitaliza-
tion. He is shown fully dressed and standing; he appears
relatively fit.
Chou's meeting with the Senator had all the appear-
ances of resulting from a last-minute decision. After
seeing Chou, Senator Jackson went directly to a waiting
plane for a provincial tour. The decision to hold the
Chou-Jackson meeting may well have been influenced by
foreign press speculation, vehemently denied on July 4
by a Pekin Foreign Ministry spokesman, that Chou was
dying.
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National Intelligence Bulletin July 8, 1974
ITALY
Following parliamentary approval last week, Italy
yesterday issued decree laws implementing an austerity
program that is designed to increase government revenues
by $4.7 billion. Most of` the funds will be used to lower
the public sector's large deficit.
The program is a first step in improving Italy's
international credit standing, which has been seriously
weakened by extensive reserve losses and political in-
stability. The new tax measures will dampen domestic
demand, and if government estimates are accurate, will
hold growth of the gross national product to between 3
and 4 percent this year. The anticipated drop in demand
will reduce imports by about 10 percent over the next
12 months.
Important features of the program include:
--Corporation taxes will be increased from 25 to
30 percent.
--The value-added tax on beef and some other basic
consumer items will rise to 18 percent from 6 per-
cent and on alcoholic beverages and luxury goods to
30 percent from 18 percent.
--Gasoline taxes will increase 25 cents per gallon.
--Employer and employee health service charges will
increase.
Italy's three main trade union federations have de-
nounced the package as aimed principally at the working
class. They are to hold a meeting on July 13 to decide
what action to take.
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With August vacations approaching, the real test
of the government's program will probably come in the
fall. Meanwhile, the labor unions will watch carefully
to see where the burden of the austerity measures falls
most heavily. The metalworkers' union has already
threatened a strike in September if the austerity meas-
ures pinch lower paid workers too hard. 25X1
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National Intelligence ]Bulletin
ARGENTINA
July 8, 1974
Argentina's nuclear energy program reflects an in-
tent ultimately to develop a program free from dependence
on foreigners.
The National Atomic Energy Commission recently ac-
cepted Argentina's first nuclear power reactor, a 320-
megawatt (electric) natural uranium fueled facility at
Atucha built by Siemens of West Germany. A similar, but
larger, reactor will also be built at Cordoba by Canada.
Both reactors are of the type easily adaptable to plu-
tonium production.
These developments, together with Argentina's sub-
stantial natural uranium reserves, will help to achieve
a completely indigenous fuel-cycle. Technical coopera-
tion agreements with several countries--the latest with
India following its initial nuclear test in May--could
assist Argentina's nuclear aspirations. To date, the
energy program, particularly in the selection of reactor
types that produce residues suitable for nuclear weapons
production, has been influenced by military recommenda-
tions. Argentina has not signed the Non-Proliferation
Treaty, allegedly to keep open its option for developing
nuclear explosives for peaceful purposes,
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National Intelligence Bulletin
July 8,
1974
MEXICO
A joint military operation against guerrilla leader
Lucio Cabanas has not yet produced significant results.
The action, involving about 2,000 troops, was launched
on June 26 in an effort to kill Cabanas and rescue gu-
bernatorial candidate Senator Figueroa, who was kidnaped
with four assistants on May 30.
Mexican naval vessels are patrolling offshore from
the area of Guerrero State where Cabanas is believed to
be hiding and marines have joined army patrols in cordon-
ing off the area. On Ju:Ly 2, army troops discovered an
abandoned camp believed to have been occupied by Cabanas,
but--despite unconfirmed press reports of a guerrilla
ambush and other clashes---they have apparently been un-
able to make contact with the group.
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National Intelligence Bulletin
July 8, 1974
Pakistan-USSR: Prime Minister Bhutto has postponed
his trip to Moscow that was to have begun today.
The two sides have publicly ex-
plained the postponement on the grounds that urgent do-
mestic issues re uire Bhutto to stay in Pakistan.
I
Ethiopia: The tense atmosphere in Addis Ababa ap-
pears to be easing in the wake of Emperor Haile Selassie's
recent agreement to allow military supervision of the
government. Parliament will meet in special session to-
day to consider constitutional changes that will strip
the Emperor of many traditional powers. The military
has eased the ban on travel, permitting the foreign min-
ister to visit Zaire, and soldiers have been withdrawn
from outside banks. Meanwhile, six more top officials
charged with corruption have surrendered to militar
authorities.
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