CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A012100100001-5
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 19
• Document Creation Date: December 15, 2016
• Document Release Date: January 8, 2004
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: September 20, 1968
• Content Type: REPORT

Approved For Release 2004/03/11 : CIA-RDP79T00975A0121
I&
gat-5
25X1
DIRECTORATE OF
INTELLIGENCE
Central Intelligence Bulletin
Secret
513
State Department review completed 20 September 1968
Approved For Release 2004/03/11 : CIA-RDP79T00975A012100100001-5
 25X1 Approved For Release 2004/03/11 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO12100100001-5
Approved For Release 2004/03/11 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO12100100001-5
 Approved For Release 2004/03hV,'BP79T00975A012100100001-5
No. 0266/68
20 September 1968
Central Intelligence Bulletin
CONTENTS
South Vietnam: Situation report. (Page 1)
Czechoslovakia-USSR: Prague leadership changes are aimed at
satisfying the Soviets without jeopardizing popular support.
(Page 2)
USSR-Berlin: Moscow reaffirms opposition to a greater West
German role in Berlin. (Page 4)
Poland: Regime continues to facilitate the emigration of Jews.
(Page 6)
Rumania-Turke : Buchar%st aiding Turks in building refinery
and petrochemical plants. (Page 7)
France: A revival of student violence has been at least tem-
porarily averted. (Page 8)
Mexico: Army occupation of university will intensify student-
government conflict. (Page 9)
Honduras: Government trying to force an end to the general
strike. (Page 10)
India-USSR: Despite recent misgivings New Delhi intends to
maintain close relations with Moscow. (Page 11)
India: Government employees' strike resulted in violence but
did not hamstring operations. (Page 12)
Israel-Jordan: Retaliatory strike closer (Page 13)
Malaysia-Philippines: Trouble over Sabah (Page 13)
Bolivia: University autonomy violated (Page 13)
Guinea: World Bank loan (Page 14)
Approved For Release 2004/03(g]p(]qlt4~P79T00975A012100100001-5
 Approved For Release 2004/ ' jRIMDP79T00975A012100100001-5
{ BINH
LO'. G. /
uany"-
VINH
BINH
PHU
YEN
KHANH-f
HOA i~
92091 9-68 CIA Approved For Release 2004/Q1A f DP79T00975A012100100001-5
25X1
 Approved For Release 2004/0c.ICDP79T00975A012100100001-5
L South Vietnam: President Thieu continues to
demonstrate some nervousness over coup possibilities.
Although Thieu probably feels that in the cur-
rent rash of rumors there is no immediate threat to
his position, he is, nevertheless, concerned lest
persistent low-level intrigue have a corrosive ef-
fect on his government.
The President, for example, has recently shifted
Marine units out of Saigon and replaced them with
Rangers. The Marines are commanded by an officer re-
sponsive to Vice President Ky and the shift coincided
with early September coup rumors which subsequently
proved unfounded.
Although Thieu's confidence, built up over months
of gradually consolidating his position, may be shaken
by some of the maneuvering going on around him, he
probably believes that this kind of remedial action
will allow him to keep the upper hand.
In the ground war the Communists continued to
exert military pressure in key areas. Sporadic
fighting took place just south of the Demilitarized
Zone and west of the provincial capital of Quang
Ngai on 18-19 September. In III Corps and the delta
Communist activity was confined to shellings. 25X1
20 Sep 68 Central Intelligence Bulletin
Approved For Release 2004/ T RDP79T00975A012100100001-5
 Approved For Release 2004/SALWL1RV-IPrRDP79TO0975AO12100100001-5
Czechoslovakia-USSR: The leadership changes
announced in Prague are another partial step toward
satisfying Soviet demands for "normalization," but
are also designed not to jeopardize popular alle-
giance to the regime.
Former deputy premier Sik's reassignment as
an economic adviser in the Czechoslovak Embassy in
Belgrade was followed yesterday by the resignation
of Foreign Minister Jiri Hajek and the temporary as-
sumption of his duties by Premier Cernik.
Three pro-Soviet officials were also involved
in the shifts. Internal Trade Minister Pavlovsky
and the chief of the National Communications Board
have been ousted from their posts. Former presidium
member Drahomir Kolder was exiled to a new embassy
job in Sofia.
There have been recurrent reports that Dubcek
will be replaced by Slovak party chief Husak, al-
though the latter's receptivity to Soviet overtures
is as yet unclear. In recent speeches, nevertheless,
Husak has been implicitly critical of the Dubcek
leadership for its failure to control "antisocialist
forces" prior to the intervention.
Dubcek is still to lead a high-level Czechoslo-
vak delegation to Moscow within a few days--possibly
next week--reportedly to explain Prague's responses
to Soviet demands. Western correspondents have re-
ported that he will be accompanied by President
Svoboda, Premier Cernik, Husak, presidium member
Spacek, and possibly others. Czechoslovak fears con-
cerning the meeting are giving rise to rumors that
it will be a showdown, with the Soviets insisting on
the ouster of Dubcek and National Assembly President
Smrkovsky, as well as strict Czechoslovak adherence
in the future to the Russian interpretation of the
Moscow agreement. President Svoboda allegedly will
20 Sep 68
Central Intelligence Bulletin
Approved For Release 2004/03/11 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO12100100001-5
SECRET
 Approved For Release 20041c -&X-RDP79T00975A012100100001-5
tell the Soviets that if some Czechoslovak leaders
must quit, the entire Dubcek team, including Svoboda,
will resign.
A hard-line Pravda article yesterday suggested
that the Soviets ins tend to adopt an uncompromising
attitude during talks with the beleaguered Czechoslo-
vak leaders. The article argues forcefully for
strengthening both discipline within the party and
the party's position as the guiding force within the
state. It also repudiates a variety of economic,
cultural and political reforms, in effect calling
for abandonment of an earlier pledge not to interfere
in Czechoslovak domestic affairs. 25X1
20 Sep 68 Central Intelligence Bulletin
Approved For Release 2004/OWLU. p1E-'1 OP79T00975A012100100001-5
 Approved For Release 2004ffi .bi -RDP79T00975A012100100001-5
USSR-Berlin: In an extension of its propaganda
attacks on West Germany, Moscow has reaffirmed spe-
cifically its objection to any expansion of West
Germany's role in West Berlin.
Izvestia yesterday raised the Berlin question
in a row-page article. Like Pravda the day before,
Izvestia insisted that the USSR has the legal right
under international agreements to act "in case of
the renewal of a policy of aggression" by West Ger-
many. It said that these rights apply "in equal
measure" to West German actions affecting West Ber-
lin.
In the face of West German activities scheduled
for the city this fall, Moscow restated its long-
standing assertion that West Berlin "had not, does
not, and will not belong to West Germany." Bonn has
scheduled a "work week" of Bundestag committee meet-
ings in West Berlin late in October, and the Chris-
tian Democratic Union plans to hold its federal
party convention there early in November. The Ber-
lin element of the National Democratic Party, the
"neo-Nazi" group especially odious to the Communists,
plans to hold its first party congress in West Berlin
on 19-20 October.
Moscow's expression of increasing alarm over
West German intentions may be largely synthetic and
a means of diverting attention from the Czechoslovak
issue, It cannot be excluded, however, that the
Soviets are leading up to an intensification of pres-
sures on the West German position in Berlin.
Soviet diplomats have given assurances in the
West that Moscow contemplated no moves against West
Berlin in the wake of the invasion of Czechoslovakia.
This does not preclude actions by East Germany, how-
ever. Pankow is circulating reports that some un-
specified East German moves against the city are in
the offing.
(continued)
20 Sep 68
Central Intelligence Bulletin
Approved For Release 20011A-RDP79T00975A012100100001-5
 Approved For Release 2004 CRRi-RDP79T00975A012100100001-5
The East Germans have also taken a step to
dramatize Soviet support for their position on Ber-
lin. The East German news agency yesterday reported
a meeting between Ulbricht and the Soviet ambassador.
It said that the two discussed questions concerning
the "evident intensification" of Bonn's "revanchist
and militarist course" and its "illegal presum tions,"
a reference to Bonn's ties with West Berlin. 25X1
i
20 Sep 68
Central Intelligence Bulletin
Approved For Release 2004/ -1DP79T00975A012100100001-5
 Approved For Release 2004/NEC)NIApDP79T00975A012100100001-5
Poland: The regime is continuing to facilitate
emigrat not of Polish Jews, in line with party leader
Gomulka's offer last year to permit such departures.
The monthly total of exit permits to Israel
granted Jews by the Polish Government has been stead-
il rising
e regime
-A
Many Jews who already had visas and exit per-
mits apparently have hastened their departure as a
result of the invasion of Czechoslovakia. According
to Jewish relief agencies in Vienna, 342 Polish
Jews have arrived there since 1 September, which
they characterize as a "sharp rise" compared with a
similar preinvasion period.
7
The regime's relatively liberal policy probably
is designed in part to counter its anti-Semitic im-
age, especially since the purge of Jews from the
party and state apparatus earlier this year. Al-
though the anti-Semitic campaign is no longer as
flagrantly obvious in public media, anti-Semitic
pressures and sporadic dismissals of Jews continue.
In addition, there are signs that even those Jews
who do not fear for their jobs believe that long-
range prospects for Polish Jewry are bleak, and are
taking the opportunity to emigrate now.
20 Sep 68
Central Intelligence Bulletin 6
25X1
25X1
25X
25X1
Approved For Release 2004/03/11 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO12100100001-5
SECRET
 Approved For Release 2004/05d9,C1 iiPDP79T00975A012100100001-5
Rumania-Turkey: Bucharest will assist the
Turks in constructing a petroleum refinery and petro-
chemical plants.
Rumania offered last fall to provide a credit
to finance an oil refinery, but the amount involved
was not specified. Bucharest has expressed an in-
terest in undertaking petroleum exploration, but thus
far has only supplied a heavy drilling rig.
According to the press, Rumania also has ex-
tended a credit to finance the construction of a dam
and hydroelectric power station, and additional aid
may be forthcoming. The Rumanian minister of petro-
leum, now visiting Ankara, stated his country could
help Turkey build bauxite and aluminum production
facilities, presumably in exchange for bauxite and
alumina to meet Bucharest's needs. Rumanian geolo-
gists have been surveying deposits in southeast
Turkey.
20 Sep 68 Central Intelligence Bulletin
25X1
Approved For Release 2004/03/s1 64j 1 P79T00975A012100100001-5
 Approved For Release 2004/03} CPf:.IPP79T00975A012100100001-5
France: Minister of Education Faure appears
to have averted, at least temporarily, a revival of
last May's student violence.
Attempts by extremist students to disrupt uni-
versity examinations, which were postponed last
spring, have failed to rally widespread student sup-
port, and the exams are taking place with only minor
incidents. Faure seems to have won over most stu-
dents by spelling out his precise plans for experi-
mental schools and by making clear that he is deter-
mined to carry out more than nominal reforms despite
opposition from within the cabinet and the Gaullist
party. Faure's willingnes-s to engage in dialogue
with radical as well as moderate student leaders has
also eased the situation.
Many government officials are still edgy about
what will happen when classes are fully resumed in
October, however. While Faure attempts to win over
students through reform, Minister of Interior Mar-
cellin is working to avert disorder through a harsh
crackdown on student dissenters. Radical student
leaders are being drafted
I Moreover, police reserves
have been expanded and riot squads retrained to en-
able them to move in quickly on demonstrators.
Some observers fear that these methods will
eventually lead to a new explosion. The charge of
"police brutality" was the rallying cry of the stu-
dents during the May crisis, and police-student
clashes touched off the massive protest movement at
that time. F__ I
20 Sep 68
Central Intelligence Bulletin
25X1
Approved For Release 2004,0 1REITRDP79T00975A012100100001-5
 Approved For Release 2004/03/V(S4l2'bP79T00975A012100100001-5
C Mexico: The army occupation of the National
University is bound to have serious repercussions
and in all likelihood will intensify the student-
government conflict.
The government's unprecedented take-over of the
autonomous and nationally symbolic university plainly
shows the authorities' intolerance for any further
extension of student disturbances, but will probably
lead to further disruption. Student outrage appears
to be reflected in the entire academic community,
and the extremist national strike council may have
won increased support for its threat to continue
pressing student demands. Even the university rector,
a government appointee, has publicly criticized the
army seizure as an excessive act and declared that
youth problems require understanding rather than
violence.
All indications are that the students will not
back off.
25X1
25X1
25X1
Large numbers of students reportedly intend to
regroup away from the university. This and other
expected student reactions, and the government's
resolution to stop the movement, offer a strong
possibility for violent confrontations. 25X1
20 Sep 68
Central Intelligence Bulletin 9
Approved For Release 2004/0g1gU--t*~A&DP79T00975A012100100001-5
 Approved For Release 20040 IR`RDP79T00975A012100100001-5
Honduras: The government is trying to pressure
union leaders into calling off the general strike
that began yesterday.
Labor and government have been at odds since
he 31 arc munici al elections against op-
position candidates. Since that time, union leaders
have been using a low-key campaign to press for var-
ious economic and political reforms. The sudden
general strike marks an abrupt change of tactics.
The unpopularity of recent tax hikes on consumer
goods may have convinced the union rank and file that
they could count on general public support for a more
militant position.
Minister of Economy Acosta Bonilla admits the
government failed to explain the new taxes adequately
but says the laws will be enforced with the rifle,
if necessary." A nationwide state of siege has been
declared, and the army in the important north coast
city of San Pedro Sula has been placed on full alert.
The hard-line counsel of such cabinet members
as Zuniga and Acosta Bonilla points up the danger
that President Lopez may overreact with harsh meas-
ures that would make martyrs of union leaders and
further harden labor's position. As long as the
military supports President Lopez, however, the
strikers will have no more than limited success.
20 Sep 68 Central Intelligence Bulletin 10
Approved For Release 2004/0 /11 p fDP79T00975A012100100001-5
25X6
 Approved For Release 2004/039(4ik-- DP79T00975A012100100001-5
India-USSR: The recently concluded Indo-Soviet
ministerial-level talks apparently reaffirmed an in-
tent to maintain close relations, despite recent
Soviet actions which disturbed New Delhi.
During the talks, the Indians noted the pres-
sure to which they have been subjected by widespread
public and parliamentary opposition to the Soviet
intervention in Czechoslovakia. In response the
Indians received only the standard, rigid Soviet
line.
According to an Indian Foreign Ministry official,
the Indians argued against the Soviet decision to
sell arms to Pakistan, but were assured by the USSR
that closer Soviet-Pakistani relations would not be
detrimental to Soviet relations with India. The
Indians were again informally assured that India
had nothing to worry about regarding the type and
quality of Soviet arms for Pakistan.
The Soviets stated their intent to avoid in-
volvement in the Ganges water dispute and said a
solution should be worked out bilaterally between
Indian and Pakistan. India has feared Moscow fa-
vored mediation that could be prejudicial to India.
With regard to Kashmir, the Soviets also expressed
preference for a bilateral settlement rather than
UN involvement, but failed to give any assurances
that the Soviets' pro-India position at the UN
would remain unchanged.
Another round of bilateral talks of this same
general nature--similar to those recently held be-
tween India and the US--is tentatively scheduled
for next summer in Moscow.
20 Sep 68 Central Intelligence Bulletin
25X1
Approved For Release 2004/0f.F1C1Rl-'DP79T00975AO12100100001-5
 Approved For Release 2004/03/11 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO12100100001-5
SECRET
India: Partial defiance of the strict ban on
yesterday's government employees' strike resulted
in violence but failed to halt government operations.
Fragmentary reports indicate that, although
most of the some three million civil servants prob-
ably refrained from active participation in the
strike, many lower level employees defied the harsh
sanctions. Arrests so far number 4,000, including
prominent strike leaders. Violent incidents resulted
in hundreds wounded and a number of deaths. The
state-owned railroads apparently operated almost on
schedule in most areas, except near Calcutta and in
the northeast.
The strike was calculated to dramatize demands
for a "need-based" minimum-wage scale, a full offset
cost-of-living allowance, and a revised scale of
retirement pay. Government employees have been par-
ticularly hard hit by a continuing rise in prices
because there has been no general revision of their
wages since 1959.
The government consistently has taken a hard
line toward the demands of its employees. When.nego-
tiations with strike leaders broke down last week?
a controversial ordinance was issued prohibiting
strikes in essential services--transportation, com-
munications, and "any service in connection with
affairs of the union." In addition, ministry direc_,
tives threatened immediate suspension and loss of
seniority privileges to all strikers. Police and
army reserves were also placed on standby alert; and
plans were made to protect government facilities
and nonstrikers.
Unrest is not confined to the ranks of central
government employees. Several state governments
have been plagued by similar strikes, and troublesome
labor-management problems still beset industrial
areas. An eight-week strike recently closed the
major English-language newspapers. Moreover, a
strike by dock workers scheduled for 24 September
threatens to cripple the major ports.
20 Sep 68
Central Intelligence Bulletin
25X1
Approved For Release 2004/03/11 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO12100100001-5
SECRET
 Approved For Release 2004/03AI~(lR4Ui~bP79T00975A012100100001-5
NOTES
(Israel-Jordan: Yesterday's terrorist ambush
of an Israeli patrol on the west bank of the Jordan
River in which six Israelis including a lieutenant
colonel were killed brings closer a major Israeli
retaliatory strike. The Israelis have been rela-
tively restrained in their response to recent in-
cidents, holding this almost to a tit-for-.tat basis.
In recent days, however, Western observers have taken
note of a growing Israeli mood of concern over their
border confrontations. They suspect that the Israelis
may be building a case for some more drastic pre-
Malaysia-Philippines: Kuala Lumpur has reacted
to a Philippine note regarding a law on territorial
waters by announcing that it will withdraw its dip-
lomatic staff from Manila., The note failed to af-
firm that Manila respects Malaysian sovereignty over
Sabah. Kuala Lumpur also indicated that it could no
longer cooperate with Manila in antismuggling activ-
ities, and requested the withdrawal of Filipino
customs officials stationed in Sabah. The develop-
ments followed President Marcos' signature on 18
September of a bill referring to Philippine ?'domini
and sovereignty" over Sabah.
Bolivia: Army troops entered the university
in Cochabamba on 17 September, reportedly arresting
28 persons and removing a cache of arms and ammu-
nition, The army's action was strongly denounced by
the university rector who charged that the troops
found no arms but did wreck and "sack" the school
premises. Tensions have remained high among Bolivian
students since the violent disorders of August, and
this move will provide them with the additional issue
of government violation of university autonomy.
20 Sep 68
(continued)
Central Intelligence Bulletin 13
25X1
Approved For Release 2004/g.EiUR(RRDP79T00975A012100100001-5
 Approved For Release 2005 Q (~1 CIA-RDP79T00975A012100100001-5
Guinea: The World Bank's extension of a $64.5-
million loan to Guinea on 18 September is a personal
triumph for President Toure. The loan is to cover
the foreign exchange costs of constructing ancillary
facilities needed to exploit high-grade bauxite
deposits at Boke. Psychologically, the project
should also alleviate some of the internal discon-
tent resulting from Guinea's economic stagnation,
although the official expectation that it will be a
panacea for all economic woes is unrealistic. Pro-
jected hard-currency earnings from the development
will probably fall far short of covering Guinea's
expected $25-million annual balance-of-payments deficit
over the next few years. Guinean leaders are still
unwilling to undertake fundamental economic reforms.
The United States Intelligence Board on 19
September 1968 approved the following national in-
telligence estimate:
NIE 11-4-68, "Main Issues in Soviet Militar
Policy"
20 Sep 68 Central Intelligence Bulletin
25X1
Approved For Release 2004/03/11 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO12100100001-5
SECRET
 Seentoved For Release 2004/03/11 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO12100100001-5
Secret
Approved For Release 2004/03/11 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO12100100001-5