CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A012900140001-3
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 16
• Document Creation Date: December 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: February 13, 2003
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: January 22, 1969
• Content Type: REPORT

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DIRECTORATE OF
INTELLIGENCE
Central Intelligence Bulletin
Secret
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22 January 1969
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No. 0019/69
22 January 1969
Central Intelligence Bulletin
CONTENTS
South Vietnam: Situation report. (Page 1)
Czechoslovakia: Prague leaders seek to prevent
Further disorders and convince Soviets of their
control of the situation. (Page 2)
Arab States - Israel: Iraq has become the most
militant of the Arab states directly embroiled
with Israel. (Page 4)
USSR-Cuba: Soviet military aid deliveries appear
to be under way again. (Page 5)
USSR: Moscow is seeking Western technology for
its truck-building industry. (Page 6)
Japan: Student violence may develop into a major
challenge to the government. (Page 7)
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Pakistan: The opposition met with mixed success
nL efforts to organize a nationwide protest. (Page 9)
Burma-India: Rice sale (Page 10)
Uruguay: Labor unrest (Page 10)
Bolivia: State of siege (Page 10)
Ecuador: Students elect Communist (Page 11)
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C South Vietnam: The recent upsurge in small-
unit actions by Communist local force and guerrilla
units continued on 20-21 January, although enemy
regulars remained relatively inactive.
These actions, consisting largely of shellings
and limited ground probes, have been directed pri-
marily against remotely deployed allied troop con-
centrations and field positions, with only occa-
sional forays against major allied bases and urban
areas. Hamlets and villages in widespread sectors
have also come under intensified pressure in recent
days, with a number of terrorist incidents and mass
abductions reported.
The stepped-up harassment against South Viet-
nam's countryside appears intended both to neutral-
ize the government's drive to consolidate its mili-
tary and administrative influence over contested
rural areas through the Accelerated Pacification
Campaign and to reinforce the Communists' claims
that they are controlling ever larger numbers of
people at the grass-roots level. (Map)
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Czechoslovakia: Dubcek and his colleagues are
searching for means to deter further public disturb-
ances while attempting to convince the Soviets that
they are in full control of the situation.
Prague's top leaders--Dubcek,; President Svo-
boda, Premier Cernik, and National Assembly Presi-
dent Smrkovsky--met with university officials on
20-21 January in an attempt. to mollify students
incensed by the self-immolation of two Czechoslovak
youths who attributed their acts to despair over
the political situation. The leadership must come
up with a compromise satisfactory to the students
or face the possibility of other suicide attempts
and demonstrations.
The first "human torch," Jan Palach, will be
given a "hero's funeral" on 25 January and will be
buried alongside the country's great composers,
intellectuals, and writers. The ceremony will be
private, but it will undoubtedly attract youths
from all over the country who are intent on demon-
strating in Prague.
During the demonstrations of 18-20 January,
the police apparently initiated no special security
precautions, and no military forces were seen in
the streets. However, Cernik told the Czech trade
union congress on 21 January that some of the stu-
dent actions were "antisocialist" and that the
security police would clamp down on any future dem-
onstrations. Attempts by the police to break up
such gatherings could lead to disturbances that
would undoubtedly worsen the situation for the
Dubcek leadership.
The Soviets have warned Czechoslovak leaders
that they must control the situation. TASS has
condemned the student acts as anti-Communist prov-
ocations, and Pravda, in describing Palach's sui-
cide, appeared to have deliberately misrepresented
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the Prague leadership's sympathetic attitude.
Pravda also noted that the Czechoslovak author-
ities will permit no further demonstrations to take
place, leaving the impression that the.Dubcek lead-
ership is prepared to take strong measures to pre-
vent them.
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Arab States - Israel: Iraq's attitude has be-
come the most militant and intransigent of all the
Arab states directly embroiled with Israel.
1wnat was to nave been a
routine conference of Arab defense ministers and
chiefs of staff in Cairo from 9 to 12 January was
disrupted by Iraq's insistence that future Israeli
attacks on any single Arab state be met by a mili-
tary response on all fronts. The head of the
Iraqi delegation charged that the other Arab states
were only halfheartedly carrying out their military
responsibilities and were thereby betraying the
Arab cause. The other Arab representatives were
said to have been stunned by the Iraqi attack.
In rebutting the Iraqi charges, the repre-
sentatives of Egypt, Jordan, and even Syria argued
that the Arabs do not now have the capability even
to defend themselves against Israel, much less to
mount any offensive actions. The Egyptians and
Syrians were "paragons
of moderation roug ou e conference, agreeing
fully with the normally cautious Jordanians, being
very realistic about Arab military capabilities,
and remaining relatively objective in discussing
the desirability and difficulties of achieving
peace.
The only explanation, and probably a partially
correct one, the other delegations could give for
the Iraqis' behavior was that they were either
seeking some propaganda advantage or hoped to pro-
voke external troubles in order to distract atten-
tion from increasingly serious domestic diffi-
culties.
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USSR-Cuba: Soviet military aid deliveries to
Cuba appear to be under way again after a hiatus
of almost a year.
The Soviet freighter Yuni y Leninets, expected
to arrive in Cuba on or about 23 January, appears
to be carrying a military cargo. During the ship's
current voyage it unloaded military equipment in
Syria and Egypt. Another Soviet ship, IIlya Kulik,
which may also be carrying arms, has de red for
Cuba and could arrive by the first week in Febru-
ary.
This activity may stem from agreements reached
during the Cuban deputy armed forces minister's
trip to Moscow in November. The last Soviet mili-
tary aid deliveries to Cuba took place in Febru-
ary 1968. Shipments had averaged about two a
month during the preceding 18 months. These de-
liveries were probably the result of a military
aid agreement concluded in the spring of 1966.
The resumption of arms shipments would coin-
cide with the partial muting of public polemics
and other signs that Soviet-Cuban relations have
improved since Castro's statements 'su portin the
Soviet invasion of Czechoslovakia.
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USSR: The USSR is seeking assistance from
truck manufacturers in Western Europe and the US in
an effort to upgrade its truck-building industry.
The Soviets recently raised their truck pro-
duction target for 1970 to 750,000, nearly double
the output level of 1965. Truck production has
increased at a rate of only seven to eight percent
a year since 1965, however, and the plan for 1969
of about 500,000 makes the attainment of the re-
vised 1970 goal highly unlikely. In addition to
the slow increase in output, the Soviets are dis-
satisfied with the low level of technology of their
truck industry.
The latest Soviet effort to acquire Western
truck know-how was made during the trade talks with
France earlier this month. A Soviet proposal that
France supply a plant capable of producing 150,000
trucks a year will be discussed further in March.
An earlier offer to purchase a truck and bus plant
from the Leyland Company, a British firm, is also
pending.
Some technical assistance from the free world
for the truck industry is already available to the
USSR. A contract with FIAT to build the passenger
car plant at Tol'yatti also provides for furnishing
expertise in the renovation and modernization of
the Soviet motor vehicle industry. In addition,
the Leyland Company recently agreed to provide a
program of technical assistance to the Soviet truck
industry for one year.
The US has not aided the Soviet truck industry
since World War II, although machinery and equip-
ment are now being sold to equip both the Tol'yatti
plant and the Moskvich passenger car plant in Mos-
cow. A Detroit firm's request for permission to
export a $65 million foundry to produce engines for
ZIL trucks is currently under onsideration,
however.
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Japan: Violence at Japanese universities may
develop into a major challenge to Prime Minister
Sato's government.
Radical factions of the Zengakuren, a leftist
student confederation,, regard the struggle with
university authorities over educational policies
and administration as only a preliminary skirmish
in their battle with the Japanese "establishment,"
their main target. Moreover, in_provoking campus
disorders throughout the current academic year,
Zengakuren militants are testing tactics for their
planned campaign of violence against the extension
of the US-Japan security agreement in 1970.
A long-standing rivalry within Zengakuren has
now erupted into a bitter power struggle between
those supporting the Japan Communist Party and
those backing more extreme Trotskyite tactics. In
an effort to isolate their radical rivals, pro-
Communist Zengakuren factions have joined with po-
litically neutral, moderate elements of the stu-
dent body in seeking an accommodation with school
authorities. Thus far, however, the Trotskyite
factions have prevented any easing of the situation.
Students are currently disrupting normal op-
erations in some 50 schools throughout the country,
including Tokyo University, Japan's most pres-
tigious educational institution. The police suc-
cessfully quelled disorders over the weekend, but
mounting public concern stems not only from the
breakdown of order at the schools but also from
the very real threat to students' careers posed by
the possible closure of several universities. The
wave of violence at Tokyo University has left the
school heavily damaged and has forced the govern-
ment to cancel entrance examinations for the next
freshman class.
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Pakistan: The newly formed united opposition
movement has met with mixed success in its first
attempt to organize nationwide antigovernment pro-
tests.
Peaceful demonstrations were staged in West
Pakistan's major cities last week with sizable
turnouts, and opposition leaders expressed satis-
faction with the response. In East Pakistan, how-
ever, the demonstration fizzled before it got un-
der way; police and military contingents cowed
would-be participants by moving in quickly and en-
forcing restrictions on public assembly.
Some violence did occur when police in Dacca,
the capital of East Pakistan, clashed with students
who had been prevented from joining the opposition
protest. One student was killed and many were in-
jured or arrested in encounters over the weekend
as the students continued to defy the government.
Military police patrolled Dacca streets yesterday
during a 24-hour strike which the students called.
The eight disparate parties of the united op-
position movement have announced plans to stage
further protests as the 1969-70 elections approach.
Their campaign has been endorsed by several re-
spected former government officials who joined
the opposition late last year.
President Ayub Khan has been plagued with
antigovernment disorders since early November 1968
and has thus far ridden out the storm. He is un-
likely to yield to this current pressure, which is
mainly designed to force a change in an indirect
electoral system stacked in his favor, but he has
not yet ruled out some concessions which might
take some of the steam out of the opposition move-
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Burma-India: The sale of Burmese rice to India
under a recently concluded agreement will help Ran-
goon's balance-of-payments situation, but excessive
government controls and mismanagement will continue
to cripple the economy. The 200,000-ton sale will
bring in $28 million, which is about 30 percent of
Burma's realized export earnings last year. Rangoon
had to renege on export commitments last spring be-
cause it was unable to collect sufficient rice from
the farmers, and later in the year, when rice was
available, found that its s had gone else-
where.
Uruguay: Labor unrest has again become a prob-
lem for the government. One worker was killed and
several were injured yesterday when civil servants
demonstrating for payment of their back wages clashed
with police in Montevideo. The government is still
operating under a limited state of siege, and secur-
ity forces should prove able to contain demonstra-
tions of this nature. The government has not alle-
viated the workers' legitimate wage complaints how-
ever, and new labor conflicts are likely. 25X1
Bolivia: The declaration of a state of siege
on 18 January may have been designed to provide an
excuse for President Barrientosto arrest and exile
the more obstreperous opposition leaders. There
have been rumors of guerrilla activity which might
have justified the declaration, but these have not
been confirmed. Arrests so far have totaled only
a dozen or more students and union leaders, and
early opposition reaction has been confined to ver-
bal protests. [Students, however, are attempting
to organize a protest for he evening of 22 Jan-
uary. ,
(continued)
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Ecuador: A Chinese-line Communist was elected
president of the student federation at Central Uni-
versity in Quito, Ecuador's largest, on 17 January
by an absolute majority in a field of four. Ecua-
dorean politicians have a strong interest in stu-
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