CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A020700020001-9
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 17
• Document Creation Date: December 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: March 20, 2003
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: December 10, 1971
• Content Type: REPORT

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DIRECTORATE OF
INTELLIGENCE
Central Intelligence Bulletin
Secret
N? 042
10 December 1971
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SECRET
No. 0295/71
10 December 1971
Central Intelligence Bulletin
INDIA-PAKISTAN: Pakistani resistance in the East
appears on the verge of collapse. (Page 1)
EAST GERMANY - WEST GERMANY: Inner-Berlin talks
remain stalemated. Page 5)
CAMBODIA: Government forces seek to relieve enemy
pressure in Phnom Penh area. (Page 7)
ROMANIA-USSR: Ceausescu seeks talks with Brezhnev
to ease tensions. (Page 8)
ARGENTINA: Government's economic goals will be
difficult to achieve. (Page 9)
POLAND: Premier outlines economic policy. (Page 10)
CHAD: Frictions within regime over student strike.
(Page 12)
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4. Indian attack
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SECRET
C INDIA-PAKISTAN: Pakistani. resistance in East
Pakistan appears on the verge of collapse as Indian
troops close in on Dacca.
Although Pakistani forces continue to hold on
in some isolated areas, the Indians are maintaining
their momentum throughout most of the province. The
most important action is now going on in the area
around Dacca. Daudkandi and Chandpur reportedly
have fallen, and the Indians claim to have crossed
the Meghna River in. two places and to have captured
Narayanganj, the key port town just six miles south
of the capital. If Pakistani forces should make a
stand at Dacca, they probably could not hold out
more than a few days.
The Indian commander on the eastern front told
reporters that retreating Pakistani soldiers were
being attacked from the air as they try to reach
Dacca and the port of Chittagong in sampans, barges,
and river boats. Press reports also indicated that
some Pakistani units were trying to make their way
to the ports of Narayanganj and Barisal. Indian
Chief of Staff Manekshaw broadcast: an appeal yester-
day to Pakistani troops to surrender and told them
they faced "certain death" if they tried to escape
by sea.
The Indians reportedly are now shifting some
aircraft from the eastern to the western front,
where the opposing air forces are now generally
comparable. Most of Pakistan's fighters are based
in the north, where they are supporting ground
operations and reportedly continuing to attack In-
dian airfields near the border. The Pakistani
fighter squadrons at Karachi, however, have appar-
ently been unable to offer much resistance to In-
dian bombers.
On the sea, the Pakistanis have apparently
given up trying to contest the approaches to their
ports in both the west and the east. The Indian
10 Dec 71 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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Az DTi
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Pesh ar Isla
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c Navy--particularly the Soviet-supplied Osa cruise
missile patrol boats--has driven most of the major
Pakistani naval units into Karachi port. Both sides
claim to have damaged or sunk enemy submarines, but
there is a lack of independent evidence.
The Indian Navy and Air Force bombarded the
Karachi area again yesterday. On 8 and 9 December
their air strikes hit the harbor area and dealt a
malor blow to West Pakistan's POL supply 25X1
E a bout
percent of the port's oil storage capacity--some 15
percent of the country' total--has been destroyed
or seriously damaged. 25X1
there was a strong possibility
that the rest of t e storage area would go unless
the oil fires could soon be brought under control.
On the western front, the Indians claim to have
beaten back several attacks around Poonch in Kashmir
and to have recrossed a river near Chhamb, where the
Pakistanis have been mounting their largest offensive.
Islamabad claims to have halted an Indian drive in
the Sialkot area. Indian forces continue to advance
virtually unopposed in Sind Province, but thus far
they have captured little of importance there. There
have been no further reports on the fighting north
of Poonch at Tithwal and Kargil.
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UN efforts to stop the war may soon shift back
from the General Assembly to the Security Council.
There appears to be a consensus at the'UN that the 3
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SECRET
Security Council must seriously consult on the
conflict within the next two or three days. Both
Indian Foreign Minister Singh and Pakistani Foreign
Minister-designate Bhutto were expected to arrive at
the UN by today. Pakistan already has formally ac-
cepted the General Assembly's demand for a cease-
fire and troop withdrawal. Both India and the Soviet
Union, however, are expected to continue to resist
proposals that would halt the fighting, at least
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EAST GERMANY -? WEST GERMANY: The inner-Berlin
talks remain sta emate .
Without an agreement on visits by West Berlin-
ers to East Berlin and East Germany, Bonn will not
initial the completed inter-German agreement on
transit between West Berlin and West Germany. Be-
cause of a series of linkages imposed by the major
powers and Bonn, this delay blocks progress on rat-
ification of Bonn's treaties with Moscow and Warsaw,
signature of the Four-Power agreement on Berlin, and
multilateral preparations for a conference on Euro-
pean security and cooperation.
Both Pankow and West Berlin have stated their
willingness to accept the draft agreement completed
on 3-4 December, but the Western side has objected
vigorously to Eastern attachments to the text am-
plifying and interpreting the terms of the agree-
ment. The effect of these additions is to imply
recognition of East German claims of sovereignty
over East Berlin and a separate political status
for West Berlin. West Berlin negotiator Mueller
met on 7-8 December with Pankow's First Deputy For-
eign Minister Florin, a last-minute substitute for
his "ailing" colleague Guenter Kohrt, to remove some
of the objectionable language. Although Florin
agreed to a number of revisions, he subsequently
suspended the talks, notifying Mueller that West
Berlin's demand that permits for visits to East
Berlin and East Germany be granted on any day of
the week without delay was unacceptable. Florin
claimed that this demand amounted to interference
in internal East German affairs.
In view of the desire of the Brandt government
to achieve some progress in its Ostpolitik before
the federal election campaign next year, Pankow may
hope to maneuver the West into accepting terms that
could be turned to East Germany's advantacre_later
on.
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Tang KouI
Skou 7
KomPon9 i? ham
HNOM PENH
SAIGOCr'
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CAMBODIA: The government has launched several
new clearing operations to help relieve enemy pres-
sure in the Phnom Penh area.
The largest operation, involving seven battal-
ions led by predominantly Khmer Krom troops, is to
sweep the region just south of the city between
Routes 2 and 3. Several hundred enemy troops report-
edly are operating in small units in this region.
West of the capital, another four battalions will
try to maneuver behind suspected Communist positions.
There has been little significant military ac-
tion around Phnom Penh in the past few days. Yester-
day, elements of two government brigades met no re-
sistance when they linked up with a besieged battal-
ion at Phnom Baset, 12 miles northwest of the cap-
ital. Some sharp fighting may be in the offing in
this sector, however, because Cambodian commanders
are reporting sizable enemy troop concentrations
near Phnom Baset.
In the north, the situation along Route 6 re-
mains quiet, but government forces at Tang Kouk ap-
parently are ill-prepared to withstand any deter-
mined Communist attacks. The morale of Cambodian
officers and men at that town reportedly is danger-
ously low, and their defensive planning consists
primarily of laying out zones for air drops and
locating potential escape routes.
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ROMANIA-USSR: Ceausescu's presence at the
Polish party congress appears designed to take the
edge off the Romanian-Soviet tensions of last sum-
mer and to ensure that Romania's voice is heard in
any multilateral talks.
The Romanian party leader, who did not go to
the East German party congress in June, gave long
consideration to the question of attending the Pol-
ish gathering, and the matter reportedly was the
subject of a lively party debate, which eventually
resulted in unanimous approval. An impelling fac-
tor was the opportunity for Ceausescu to talk per-
sonally with Brezhnev. The Romanians have been
anxious for such a meeting and apparently actively
sought, through a third party, to have Brezhnev
stop over in Bucharest after his talks with Tito
in late September.
Talks between the two party leaders will be
difficult in view of the mutual antipathy which
has developed between them. Throughout the summer
they exchanged several protocol snubs. A resolu-
tion of basic differences between the two countries
seems out of the question, although Ceausescu likely
will adopt a responsive, if not conciliatory, pos-
ture.
Ceausescu took a moderate line in his speech
at the Polish congress. Although he upheld stand-
ard Romanian principles, he avoided the defiant
phraseology that characterized his speech at the
Soviet party congress in April. Ceausescu's will-
ingness to gloss over differences was also apparent
in his failure to mention specifically the India-
Pakistan conflict. Romania's policy of neutrality
in this situation is at variance with the Soviet
attitude, expounded by Brezhnev at the Polish con-
gress.
mutual force reduc-
tions might be discussed by the Warsaw Pact party
chiefs either during or after the congress.
Ceausescu would be anxious to have a voice in such
talks.)
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ARGENTINA: The government's recently announced
economic program for 1972 is a politically inspired
compromise that will do little to solve the coun-
try's economic problems.
The government apparently hopes to maintain
real wages as a stimulus to economic growth and
social peace, but this will be difficult to achieve
in the face of worsening inflation. Effective 1
January, wages and family allowances are to be in-
creased but, because price controls also are being
relaxed, the raises are likely again to accelerate
Argentina's inflation rate. Inflation this year
is expected to reach 36 percent, despite the tem-
porary price freeze instituted in September which
is still partially in effect.
The program also sets forth a number of other
goals that will be difficult to achieve. The cur-
rent abnormally large budget deficit is to be re-
duced, many taxes are to be lowered, public services
are to be improved, meat exports are to be increased
from 1971's low levels, and industrial output is to
be raised behind "reasonable duty protection."
Some of these goals are overambitious and others
contradictory. Moreover, it is doubtful that they
will have the desired effect of smoothing the way
for the election now planned for early 1973.
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POLAND: In the major economic address delivered
at the party congress, Premier Jaroszewicz looked
ahead to a brighter economic future, but he made it
clear that the road would be long and arduous.
Jaroszewicz cited, as have all Polish officials
since party chief Gierek came to power a year ago,
the importance with which the regime views consumer
interests. The premier promised increased avail-
ability of food, housing, and heating supplies, and
improved urban transport facilities, but he also
emphasized the importance of industrial development:
Jaroszewicz noted that the increased consumption
provided for in the plan is based to a great extent
on the production of enterprises that are just now
being, or soon will be, constructed.
The plan's foremost goals are more efficient
use of investments and a resultant increase in in-
dustrial production. The premier asserted it will
be necessary to utilize foreign credits more fully
'Co import the wherewithall for modernizing domestic
industry and for increasing consumer goods output.
Taroszewicz stressed the importance of Poland's re-
lationship with the USSR and the need to increase
ties with the other members of the Council for Mu-
Lual Economic Assistance.
Warsaw apparently is in the process of devising
changes in the system of planning and management,
but will move very cautiously to avoid engendering
Soviet displeasure, The regime, stressing the need
,;or strengthened central planning, apparently will
concentrate its efforts on determining broad social
bjectives and the major trends of economic deveop-
ment. Managers of individual enterprises will be
liven greater responsibility for their own day-to-
day operations. The role of profitability is to be
increased and enterprises permitted to make inde-
pendent investments from their own funds and from
bank credits.
a continued)
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The relative economic improvement registered
over the past year may give the regime a measure of
flexibility that it would otherwise not have. Nei-
ther rapid implementation of changes nor immediate
economic improvement, however, can be anticipated.
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CHAD: Frictions within the regime have devel-
oped over the handling of Chad's first student
strike; a shake-up could follow.
President Tombalbaye in a radio speech strongly
condemned the National Political Bureau for its use
of force and its inept mediation in dealing with a
strike that erupted in Fort Lamy's secondary schools
late last month during his absence from the capital.
Accusing some of his colleagues of letting the strike
get dangerously out of hand, the President promised
an investigation and severe punishment for those re-
sponsible. Politburo members reportedly acknowledge
these shortcomings, but nevertheless are upset about
Tombalbaye's failure to back their actions and about
his accommodation of the students.
The schools reopened Wednesday in apparent calm
after Tombalbaye met with the students. He asserted
that their strike was justified and promised to end
alleged discrimination by French teachers against
Chadian students and to consider readmitting the six
students whose expulsion triggered the strike.
Tombalbaye may now bring some younger and more
pragmatic replacements into the leadership to avoid
another rash confrontation with Chad's heretofore
quiescent youth. None of Tombalbaye's hard-line as-
sociates appears to have the stature or following
to challenge seriously such a move.
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