CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A027100010010-8
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 21
• Document Creation Date: December 21, 2016
• Document Release Date: May 11, 2006
• Sequence Number: 10
• Publication Date: April 19, 2000
• Content Type: REPORT

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Top Secret
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National Intelligence
Bulletin
State Dept. review completed
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National Intelligence Bulletin
October 23, 1974
CONTENTS
PAKISTAN-USSR: Bhutto to arrive in Moscow tomorrow for
official visit. (.Page 1)
CYPRUS: Greek Cypriots planning protests at the US em-
assy. (Page 3)
CANADA: Export sales of wheat suspended until frost
damage to the crop can be assessed. (Page 4)
WESTERN EUROPE - LABOR: ETUC.to consider affiliation
request by France's Communist-dominated labor organiza-
tion. (.Page 5)
CHINA: National People's Congress may be convened
shortly. (Page 6)
SOUTH VIETNAM: Opposition groups organizing chapters
in the provinces. (Page 9)
AUSTRALIA: Recent local election defeats are another
reason for Labor not to call national elections soon.
(Page 12)
NEW ZEALAND: Prime Minister Rowling unlikely to call
early elections, despite rumors that he is considering
doing so. (Page 13)
ETHIOPIA: Security in Addis Ababa increased for the
trial of former officials. (Page 15)
FOR THE RECORD: (.Page 17)
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National Intelligence Bulletin October 23, 1974
PAKISTAN-USSR
Pakistani Prime Minister Bhutto arrives in Moscow
on Thursday for a three-day official visit.
' Bhutto, who last traveled to the USSR in March 1972,
probably feels the trip is necessary to maintain his
credentials as an important figure among leaders of de-
veloping nations. In addition, he will try to convince
the Soviets to take a more even-handed approach regarding
Pakistan's differences with Afghanistan, Bangladesh, and
India. He will probably avoid making major concessions
to the Soviets that would damage his good relations with
the US and, especially, his close ties with China.
Bhutto may sound out the Soviets on prospects for
increasing their economic aid to Pakistan. He might
even probe the possibility of getting them to resume
supplying arms, in an effort to put himself in a position
to intimate to the US that he has the option of turning
more toward Moscow if Washington. does not ease its em-
bargo on weapons shipments to Pakistan. The Soviet Union
briefly furnished arms to Pakistan in the late 1960s,
when Moscow was attempting to establish a more balanced
position between Islamabad and New Delhi, but there have
not been any signs that the Soviets are considering re-
suming such aid.
Bhutto has been unhappy about Pakistan's inability,
since the Indian nuclear explosion last May, to obtain
big-power guarantees to protect Pakistan against an Indian
nuclear threat. He may seek private assurances from the
Soviets that they will try to restrain India from estab-
lishing a nuclear weapons program. He is also concerned
about Moscow's extensive military assistance programs in
India and Afghanistan, and he may complain to the Soviets
about alleged Afghan aid to subversive elements in Pakistan.
From time to time Bhutto and other Pakistani officials
privately voice the suspicion that the USSR, India, and
Afghanistan are conspiring together to undermine Pakistan's
security and territorial integrity.
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National Intelligence Bulletin October 23, 1974
The Soviets, for their part, would probably like
to wean Islamabad from its heavy reliance on Peking.
With this objective in mind, they will seek Bhutto's
endorsement of their long-standing proposal for a Soviet-
sponsored Asian collective security system.
Moscow's focus on Pakistan's adversaries--India
and Afghanistan--as the keys to Soviet influence on the
subcontinent places sharp limits on any Soviet courtship
with Pakistan. In fact, the Soviets have already shown
some coolness toward Bhutto's visit, twice postponing it
earlier this year. Now they have scheduled it to overlap
with Secretary Kissinger's visit, which may serve to
limit Bhutto's access to the top Soviet leadership.
Moscow is pushing the line that Pakistan is economi-
cally the most viable country in South Asia, and conse-
quently it probably will not offer much new economic aid.
The Soviets may agree to some limited economic initia-
tives, such as expediting the construction of a Soviet-
aided steel mill near Karachi.
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National Intelligence Bulletin October 23, 1974
edly is among those organizing the demonstrations,
all of which will carry the underlying theme of support
Greek Cypriots are planning to hold a number of pro-
test demonstrations in Nicosia this week,. including one
today and another on Friday at the US embassy. Em-
bassy officials are taking precautionary measures and
report that demonstrations held yesterday at the Greek
embassy and outside acting President Clerides' office
were very orderly. The embassy's security measures are
being coordinated with UN officials, the National
Guard, and the police.
The demonstrations are expected to focus on such
issues as the refugee problem, US foreign policy, the
presence of Turkish military forces, and continued
overflights by Turkish airplanes. Vassos Lyssarides, a
leftist political leader and Makarios supporter, report-
for the return of Archbishop Makarios?
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National Intelligence Bulletin
October 23, 1974
The Canadian Wheat Board has suspended export sales
until the recent frost damage can be assessed. Exports
had already been curtailed since July pending an early
crop assessment, forcing some buyers to purchase US
wheat.
The harvest is expected to reach only 1303 million
tons, nearly a 20-percent reduction from last year. Be-
cause the quality also has been severely affected, an
unusually large amount will be suitable only for feed-
ing livestock.
Overall exports will probably not exceed 10.5 mil-
lion tons--the smallest amount in five years and almost
10 percent less than last year Even to export this
amount, reserves will have to be drawn down by roughly
2 million tons. Canada's stockpile of 10.r.3 million tons
equals more than one third of the total stocks held by
non-communist countries, but Ottawa opposes a sharp
cutback in inventories because of concern over Canadian
self-sufficiency.
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National Intelligence Bulletin October 23, 1974
At its meeting on October 25, the policy-making
body of the European Trade Union Confederation (ETUC)
is expected to act on the request from France's Commu-
nist-dominated General Confederation of Labor (CGT) that
talks be opened on the question of CGT affiliation.
The ETUC secretary general told US officials last
month that the Secretariat would strongly recommend
that the CGT's bid for affiliation be rejected. In July,
however, the Communist-dominated Italian labor federa-
tion was admitted to membership in the ETUC.
. The CGT expects various national confederations
that are adamantly opposed to affiliation--the West German
Trade Union Federation and the French Force Ouvriere--
to call for an immediate vote on the question, knowing
that the necessary two-thirds majority could not be
mustered at this time.
The CGT's allies will try to head off this move by
presenting a motion to form a committee to study the
question of affiliation. This procedural move, which
requires only a simple majority for adoption, would be
supported by the British Trades Union Congress and the
French Democratic Workers Confederation and might well
pass. The CGT hopes through this strategy to gain
several months' time in which to lobby for support.
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National Intelligence Bulletin October 23, 1974
The long-delayed National People's Congress may at
last be convened.
There has been no National People's Congress since
1965. A meeting was slated to be held following the
Ninth and the Tenth Party Congresses in 1969 and 1973,
but political division and then the poor health of key
leaders forced delays.
The country's political wounds have not healed,
but there has apparently been enough improvement so
that the congress can be held soon. Mao, Chou, and sev-
eral other Politburo members have serious health problems,
but their recent activities indicate they are capable
of participating in a show of unity.
Drafting of the new state constitution has been a
contentious issue; arguments about it helped precipi-
tate the Lin Piao affair in 1971. If this issue has
been resolved, the major additional work of the congress
will be to approve a slate of government ministers.
Most of the known ministries have heads, but the
Defense Ministry is a major exception; an appointment
would help define the balance of political forces in
Peking. The two most likely candidates are Politburo
members Yeh Chien-ying and Chen Hsi-lien. Yeh, an
ally of Premier Chou, has been de facto defense chief
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National Intelligence Bulletin
October 23, 1974
since Lin Piao's fall. Chen is somewhat younger than Yeh,
who at 76 is the same age as the Premier. Chen is, how-
ever, a representative of the regional military commanders,
many of whom have been under pressure during the anti-
Confucius campaign. Nevertheless, Chen himself has been
virtually immune from criticism. One of the first acts
of the anti-Confucius campaign--a leftist broadside
against the "bourgeois" educational practices--originated
in his former bailiwick of northeast China.
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Can The,
SOUTH VIETNAM
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National Intelligence Bulletin October 23, 1974
SOUTH VIETNAM
Catholic and Buddhist opposition groups currently
active in demonstrations against the Thieu government
are working hard to organize local chapters in the
provinces. The Buddhists' National Reconciliation Force
has formed provincial organizations in three of the
northernmost provinces and also in Hue and Da Nang. The
Catholic-led movement against corruption has opened up
two new chapters in Can Tho and Rach Gia in the delta.
The degree of public backing for these new groups
is not known, but demonstrations in support of them
have been fairly small, with the exception of one last
weekend in Can Tho attended by about 4,000 people. The
US consul general in the delta reports that the Can
Tho demonstration was peaceful.
Longtime leftist gadfly Madame Ngo Ba Thanh took
to the streets in Saigon during the weekend and suc-
ceeded in getting foreign press coverage of a small
rock-throwing demonstration against South Vietnam's
National Assembly building. The demonstrators, however.,
were mostly teenage thugs--numbering about 100--who
were interested mainly in destroying public property
and testing police reaction. Saigon police units re-
acted calmly; no injuries were reported.
There are no signs that the government plans to
modify its lenient attitude toward the protesters.
President Thieu is concerned, however, about reports
that both Catholics and Buddhists are planning wide-
spread demonstrations during South Vietnam's National
Day on November 1, and he has ordered his security
chiefs to monitor the opposition closely.
The other principal protest group, the newspaper
publishers' association, has requested its members not
to send reporters to government-sponsored news con-
ferences and not to publish information based on gov-
ernment news handouts. The boycott is in response to
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National Intelligence Bulletin October 23, 1974
the government's alleged unwillingness to moderate pro-
visions of its press law.
Thieu last week sent e a iona
Assembly proposals for amendments that would ease the
restrictions somewhat but would still give the govern-
ment authority to confiscate, censor, or suspend the
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National Intelligence Bulletin October 23, 1974
Labor's overwhelming defeat in local elections in
the Northern Territory last weekend will further dis-
courage the government from calling early national elec-
tions. Prime Minister Whitlam a few days previously
had raised the possibility of new elections if the op-
position continued to obstruct Labor's legislative
program.
In the Northern Territory voting, the Liberal-
Country opposition took at least 17 of the 19 seats in
a new territorial assembly. A local Labor Party leader,
commenting that his organization was "annihilated,"
blamed the results on public dissatisfaction with the
state of the economy under the Labor government.
The defeat closely follows other rebuffs to Labor
in local elections. Last month, Labor lost about two
thirds of the city and town councils it had held in
New South Wales, and its share of the vote in the Capi-
tal Territory dropped by six percentage points.
Public opinion poll results released over the
weekend show that only a little over 40 percent of the
electorate favors Labor. This is a drop of 9 percent
since the elections last May that narrowly continued
Labor in office. This, plus the recent series of de-
feats, may persuade the party to make do with its less
than satisfactory parliamentary situation, rather than
risk defeat in a national contest.
In the past, the Labor hierarchy has followed the
maxim that local election results have little bearing
at the national level. This attitude is certain to be
reviewed.
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National Intelligence Bulletin
October 23, 1974
Rumors are circulating that the Labor government
may call early elections.
Elections are not scheduled until November 1975.
There is speculation, however, that Prime Minister
Bowling may soon seek a new three-year mandate to take
advantage of the public's sympathy for Labor because of
the recent death of the popular prime minister Kirk.
Local elections have shown a trend against Labor, and
the government may want to move before its standing
slips further. Bowling may also be concerned that the
stringent economic measures the government is contem-
plating are likely to alienate the electorate over the
next year.
There is, however, considerable sentiment within
the Labor Party against early elections. A sizable num-
ber of the Labor members of Parliament were elected by
slim majorities, and they are reluctant to be put to
the test again, in view of Labor's recent setbacks in
local elections. Also, many party members argue that
the government, with its large parliamentary majority,
should feel no compulsion to go to the polls.
The US embassy believes that the odds are against
early elections and that Rowling's failure to scotch
rumors is a tactical move to kee his o tions o en and
the opposition off balance.
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National Intelligence Bulletin
October 23, 1974
The Armed Forces Coordinating Committee yesterday
increased security measures in Addis Ababa in prepara-
tion for the trial of aristocrats and former officials
charged with corruption and abuse of power.
A force of 12 to 16 tanks and supporting infantry
from the Third Division in eastern Ethiopia has been
stationed around the palace in which the prisoners will
be tried by military tribunals established by the coor-
dinating committee last Saturday. The committee's recent
decision to move its headquarters to the same palace may
also have prompted the strengthening of security around
the compound. Former emperor Haile Selassie remains
under detention at Fourth Division headquarters in the
capital, but the committee has made no announcement con-
cerning the possibility of a trial.
The trials may increase tensions within the commit-
tee stemming from differences over how to deal with the
prisoners. The moderates in control of the committee
are concerned with the troublemaking potential of radi-
cal members who favor harsh treatment for the aristo-
crats. Some radicals reportedly have advocated killing
the prisoners without trial. The moderates are also
concerned that supporters of the aristocrats, perhaps
joined by sympathizers in the military, will instigate
disorders during the trials, or even try to free the
prisoners.
Meanwhile, elements of the army's Second Division
reportedly are pursuing Ras Mengasha Seyoum, former
governor general of Tigre Province, and Ali Mira Hanfere,
the Sultan of Afar and a local leader of Afar tribesmen
in Ethiopia. Ras Mengasha, the only remaining important
nobleman at, large, is believed to have connections with
leaders of the Eritrean Liberation Front. He probably
has a few hundred armed followers.
The Sultan of Afar is reported to have fled from his
capital in northeastern Ethiopia toward the neighboring
French Territory of Afars and Issas. He has several
thousand armed followers, and significant numbers of
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October 23, 1974
Afars would probably rally to his cause. Simultaneous
military action against Ras Mengasha, the continuing in-
surgency in Eritrea, and possible armed conflict with
the Afars could seriously overextend Second Division
resources and further strain relations with the populace
in several northern provinces.
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National Intelligence Bulletin October 23, 1974
Argentina: Last week's announcement of plans to
nationalize Standard Electric of Argentina--an ITT sub-
sidiary--and two other foreign-owned telecommunications
firms was apparently triggered by ITT demands for a gov-
ernment takeover. ITT decided to dump Standard after
government cancellation of a major contract left Stand-
ard with debts of nearly $100 million against assets of
around $140 million. The resulting shortage of cash
and the deteriorating business climate led ITT to offer
to sell Standard for book value (apparently $50 million)
plus government assumption of debts. Following rejec-
tion of this offer, ITT offered simply to surrender the
company in return for cancellation of debts.
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Top Secret
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