CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A027300010046-8
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 21
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Sequence Number: 46
• Content Type: REPORT

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National Intelligence Bulletin
January 15, 1.975
CONTENTS 25X1
TURKEY-US: Ankara?s reaction to possible US aid cutoff
on February 5. (Page 1)
PORTUGAL: Coalition jeopardized by dispute over single
a or organization. (Page 2)
JAPAN-USSR: No real progress is likely during Japanese
'foreign miminister?s visit to Moscow. (Page 4)
ARAB STATES: Libya and Algeria apparently unwilling to
participate in war fund. (Page 5)
CYPRUS: New cabinet composed of men who have proven
their loyalty to Makarios. (Page 7)
TURKEY-GREECE: Ankara's apparent decision to explore for
o1 in the Aegean is likely to increase tensions with
Greece. (Page 9)
ICELAND - WEST GERMANY: Fishing dispute continues.
Page 10)
SOUTH VIETNAM: Military situation. (Page 17)
FOR THE RECORD: (Page 19)
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National Intelligence Bulletin
TURKEY-US
January 15, 1975
The Turkish government reportedly is seeking alter-
native sources of armaments in the expectation that US
military assistance will stop after the deadline of
February 5 the US has assigned for showing substantial
progress toward a Cyprus settlement. In a further re-
action to the expected aid cutoff, members of parliament
are calling for a review of Turkish-American relations.
Turkish officials had previously appeared to be
assuming that a way would be found to avoid the aid cut-
off. The temporary ban instituted last month, however,
apparently shocked the Turks out of their complacency.
At the same time, 16 deputies of the Republican Peo-
ple's Party have called for a parliamentary debate on
Turkish-American relations, and a senator is pressing for
a senate investigation. The proposed debate would focus
on three items: mutual defense commitments; measures to
fill the gap if the aid cutoff is implemented; the devel-
opment of a national war industry.
The US embassy in Ankara re-
ports that whatever form the debates tak ,US-Turkish re-
lations will suffer.
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National Intelligence Bulletin January 15, 1975
The Portuguese Armed Forces Movement is caught
in a tangle trying to keep the three-party coalition
government together.
The Popular Democrats and the Socialists have
threatened to walk out if the Communists succeed in
pushing through a law allowing only a single labor
organization. Leaders of the Armed Forces Movement
are trying to placate both sides; they are trading off
concessions to the Popular Democrats and the Socialists
on the proposed economic plan that could lead them to
withdraw their objections to the Communist-sponsored
labor legislation.
There is no indication, so far, how the Popular
Democrats and Socialists have reacted to the trade-off
proposal. The alternative to it, leaving the Communists
to govern by themselves, is not a viable option. A
cabinet meeting scheduled for Friday has been advanced
to tomorrow.
The Communists will not surrender the control they
now have over the labor movement. Furthermore, they
think they have found an issue that will cause consid-
erable disarray in the government and might even lead
to postponement of the election now expected in April.
The Communists have been searching for ways to delay
the election until they can build up their strength.
The Communists held a mass rally last night to
show "popular support" for their labor law. The
Socialists are planning a counter-demonstration to-
morrow. The scheduling of these rallies increased
speculation that one side or the other might try a
coup in connection with the demonst
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National Intelligence Bulletin January 15, 1975
Japanese Foreign Minister Miyazawa arrives in Moscow
today on a three-day official visit, advertised as yet
another effort by the two sides to make progress on the
matter of a World War II peace treaty.
Any progress seems highly unlikely, however, so
long as both sides remain unwilling to make basic con-
cessions on the territorial issue--Japan's demand for
the return of the small islands off eastern Hokkaido
that were seized by the Soviets at the conclusion of the
war.
Since there has been no sign of new flexibility by
either party, the Miyazawa visit seems primarily designed
to keep the dialogue on a peace treaty alive. Tokyo, for
its part, also wants to keep the onus on the Soviets for
persistent failure to reach agreement. From broader
perspective, Tokyo sees the visit as part of an effort
to balance the relatively rapid progress of the past year
in Japan's relations with China. Tokyo and Peking appear
set to move, over the next few months, toward conclusion
of a "friendship" treaty. For their part, the Soviets
probably see value in initiating a dialogue with the
new leadership in Tokyo.
Thus, while Tokyo and Moscow as well may see benefits
in using the Miyazawa visit to underline mutual interest
in closer political and economic relations, no concrete
achievements are anticipated.
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National Intelligence Bulletin
January 15, 1975
Finance and economic ministers meeting in Cairo last
week apparently failed to recruit Libya and Algeria as
contributors to the Rabat War Fund. According to press
reports from Amman, the fund for 1975 still totals only
$1.365 billion--a figure equivalent to pledges received
from Middle Eastern oil producers immediately after the
Rabat meeting last October.
Presidents Boumediene and Qadhafi, although still
willing to provide arms for an Arab-Israeli conflict,
apparently have refused to contribute untied cash to the
fund. Neither leader is convinced that the "belligerent"
countries are committed to a sufficiently hard line
against Israel and, with uncertain oil revenue prospects,
both are beginning to feel some financial pinch.
In view of the shortfall in pledges, Syria and Egypt
will now receive $580 million each, Jordan will receive
$175 million, and the Palestine Liberation Organization
$30 million. Although this is only 58 percent of the
original Rabat aid allocation, these sums are roughly
equal to the cash that belligerent states expected to
receive. The balance of the originally allocated total
was to have been in the form of project assistance,
according to Egyptian Finance Minister Fahmi.
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National Intelligence Bulletin January 15, 1975
CYPRUS
President Makarios yesterday announced the forma-
tion of a new cabinet made up of men who have proved
their loyalty to him in the past.
Five of the nine ministers held cabinet portfolios
at the time of the coup in July, while two others were
important bureaucrats. The other two are holdovers from
the interim Clerides administration, but they do not owe
their political allegiance to Clerides, who is now a po-
tential rival to Makarios for the presidency.
Makarios had earlier considered forming a government
of national unity, composed of representatives of all po-
litical groups, including the left and right extremists.
He abandoned the idea after he could not get agreement
on appointment, particularly to the important ministries
of foreign affairs and interior.
Having excluded all but his supporters from the cab-
inet, Makarios will probably seek regular consultations
with political party leaders in order to maintain a sem-
blance of Greek Cypriot unity.
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National Intelligence Bulletin January 15, 1975
Clerides and Denktash yesterday began preliminary
discussions of political issues and will meet again. to-
morrow to discuss reopening Nicosia airport and the is-
land's seaports, particularly Famagusta. The Greek Cyp-
riots, 80 percent of the island's population, are likely
to call for proportional representation of the two com-
munities in the operation of the airport, under UN aus-
pices, and joint control of Famagusta port.
The Turkish Cypriots are likely to insist on equal
representation in the operation of the airport. They
may also offer the use of Famagusta port to Greek Cyp-
riots, but they are not likely to consent to Greek Cyp-
riot participation in its operation.
The Turkish Cypriot side will be under pressure to
make concessions because of the impending end of US mili-
tary aid to Turkey on February 5. Once the airport and
seaport issues are settled, the negotiators will begin
to talk about the powers of the central government in the
proposed federation. Clerides and Denktash agreed yes-
terday to set up a subcommittee to discuss remaining
humanitarian issues.
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National Intelligence Bulletin January 15, 1975
Ankara apparently has decided to go ahead with oil
exploration efforts in the Aegean, an action that is
likely to lead to an increase in tension with Greece.
In responding to charges of negligence in his
Aegean policy, prime Minister Irmak confirmed yesterday
that the Norwegian seismic survey ship Longva, under
contract to Turkey, would begin prospecting "before long"
in the Aegean off the western coast of Turkey. This
would place the Longva near the disputed zone, where it
could be used by the Turks to reinforce their claim.
Irmak also repeated Turkey's request that the Greeks
agree to a new demarcation line in the Aegean or to a
proposal for joint prospecting.
The US embassy in Ankara reported yesterday that
the Turkish military alert apparently has been extended.
In addition to air force and paramilitary units, ground
force units at Corlu, west of Istanbul, have also been
placed on alert. A Turkish pilot based at Murted, one
of the airfields on alert, said that Turkish military
units increased their readiness because of pending Turk-
ish oil explorations in the Aegean Sea. The Turkish
units on alert would protect the ship in the event of
any Greek effort to interfere with its explorations.
The embassy concludes that the alert measures taken
thus far' do not suggest that the Turks intend to initiate
military action.
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National Intelligence Bulletin January 15, 1975
ICELAND - WEST GERMANY
Another incident in the fishing dispute between
Iceland and West Germany and Reykjavik's lukewarm re-
sponse to the possibility of resuming talks between the
two countries have increased tensions.
On January 12, an Icelandic ship cut the trawls of
a West German fishing vessel allegedly found fishing
within Iceland's self-declared 50-mile zone. It was the
first incident at sea since November, when a German
fishing vessel was fired upon and seized by the Icelandic
coast guard,
In the meantime, Foreign Minister Agustsson recently
confirmed press speculation that Iceland had received an
invitation from Bonn to reopen negotiations aimed at
ending the dispute, Talks have been suspended since
October because of disagreements within Iceland's govern-
ing Progressive and Independence parties,
This recent incident, however, could lead to a
resumption of the talks, despite Agustsson's reported
statement that his government had not taken a position on
Bonn's proposal because it is not clear that new talks
would produce resultsm-
The West Germans are reluctant to let the situation
get out of hand and may be willing to make concessions.
The Icelanders are looking for a tougher agreement than
the one that ended the cod war with the UK in 19730
Iceland would like to limit, if not completely ban, West
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National Intelligence Bulletin
January 15, 1975
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National Intelligence Bulletin January 15, 1975
SOUTH VIETNAM
Sporadic combat activity continues northwest of
Saigon in Tay Ninh Province. Unconfirmed reports suggest
that the North Vietnamese 9th Division will move to the
province later this month. Civilians are already leaving
Tay Ninh city, and the threat of major attacks there, fol-
lowing the recent loss of Phuoc Long Province, may neces-
sitate reinforcement by additional government troops.
President Thieu has previously stated that it is impera-
tive that Tay Ninh remain in government hands.
Government forces supported by air strikes have
broken a month-long siege of a district capital in Binh
Tuy Province. This could provide a psychological lift
after the recent losses elsewhere in MR 3. The two com-
munist regiments involved have reportedly suffered heavy
casualties, primarily from air and artillery strikes.
Combat activity in the northern delta has increased
during the past four days. Communist forces are again
threatening principal towns in Kien Tuong Province near
the Cambodian border. The most recent attacks point to
another upsurge of fighting throughout this area.
The South Vietnamese air force on January 13 struck
a 400-vehicle truck convoy in the triborder area of MR 2.
The government believes it was carrying elements of the
968th Division from Laos into South Vietnam. Initial
claims were 205 trucks destroyed, 171 soldiers killed,
and numerous secondary explosions.
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National Intelligence Bulletin January 15, 1975
Iraq-Kurds: Kurdish rebels reportedly have attacked
Iraqi troops and forced them to withdraw into the Mosul
valley from positions in a province near the Iraqi border
with Turkey. The Voice of Kurdistan claimed that the
Kurds launched a major offensive, killing some 200 Iraqi
soldiers in two days of fighting last week. This is the
first major Kurdish initiative since winter weather
brought military activity to a near standstill. Any
Kurdish gains in this area must be matched by successes
in the more critical area of the Rawanduz basin, where
the Iraqi army has pushed to within 30 miles of the
Iranian border. if the Kurds are unable to retake posi-
tions in this area over the winter, their supply lines
will be in danger when action resumes on a larger scale
in the spring.
Poland: Polish party leader Gierek will make a
brief stopover in Lisbon this Friday on his way home
from Havana. The visit, which was apparently arranged
only recently, will be the first to Portugal by an East
European party leader. Lisbon has steadily sought to
improve relations with the Warsaw Pact states. Portu-
gal's Communists and the East European regimes are con-
cerned, however, that rapid movement might evoke an anti-
communist reaction within Portugal.
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