BOARD ESTIMATE OF THE CURRENT OUTLOOK IN IRAN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79R00904A000100040038-8
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 6
• Document Creation Date: December 19, 2016
• Document Release Date: January 9, 2006
• Sequence Number: 38
• Publication Date: August 13, 1953
• Content Type: MF

Approved For Release 2006 . 79R00904A000100040038-8
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ra-0 IDENT I AL1
deg might succeed in securing a nominal
s elections. through the open ballet
awe for rigging eleotions, the opersti
difficult one. Moiseadeq would probably
invading the feudal stronghdlds of
ard class which retained a conmider
1952 el:etiens. in addition,
support of Eashani? whose local ;motors
Lu 1952. Milan Mbseedel would
im Tmilrma and possibly other urban
? lft any event, Nassaiml is unlikely
than in the past in findinglesn he
after they are elected. Although
go tough with new eleetions so /ong
of reinfOrcing his position, they are
hie With only a short respite from
Wes
he in libel
nee in Iran.
? 10. In likely
to be me more critical of the US in his o st*tsits.
He sill almost otny acept any genuino concessions the
USSR mey offer him and, if offered
mints, might go so far as to t
and to Pledge Iran to refrain from entering. in 1./
arrangement with the West. Such moves are likely
in a &aline in VS prestige, an Improvement in the popular
standing of the pro.Soviet element, and possibly widened
opportunities for Soviet propaganda and severs/on
11, In the domestic: field, Mossadeq mill probably continue
to rely on Nish support in his efforts to dominate his non-
Communist opponents. As a result, be will probdta7 feel con,
polled to permit the continuation of Tudeh demonstrations
and the re.emergence of Tudeh as an acknowledged political
party. Re might go so far as restore Tudeh's legal status,
and might even bring some Tudeh sympathisers into the governmen
12. Despite the inherent dangers in these policies how
ever we do not believe they will result in lranle earning
directly or indirectly under Communist domination during 2953.
With respect to the USSR, we do not believe that
uld grant the USSR oil ooneessions permit BoTiit
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