NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A030200010006-9
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 10
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: July 25, 2006
• Sequence Number: 6
• Publication Date: June 3, 1977
• Content Type: REPORT

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NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY CAE3LE 0
Friday June 3, 1977 CG NIDC 77-128C
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NATIONAL SECURITY INFORMATION
Unauthorized Disclosure Subject to Criminal Sanctions
State Dept. review completed
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National Intelligence Daily Cable for Friday, June 3, 1977.
ITne NIL) e is tor a purpose o in orming
senior US o icials.
CONTENTS
CHINA-ZAMBIA: Military Aid
Page 2
FRANCE: Defense Cooperation
Page 3
YUGOSLAVIA: Leadership Changes
Page 4
USSR-RHODESIA-MOZAMBIQUE: Tass Statement
Page 5
CANADA: Party Quebecois
Page 5
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CHINA-ZAMBIA: Military Aid
//China's reported agreement to provide as-
sistance to the Zambian air force symbolizes continued Chinese
political support to President Kaunda and Peking's intention
to maintain its competition with the USSR in southern Africa.//
//This is the first substantial new Chinese
military ai agreement with a black African country in several
years and could represent a multi-million dollar deal.
//Peking also may be considering a broader
military aid program. The day before Zuze returned from China,
a Chinese military delegation arrived in Lusaka and was met at
the airport by the Zambian secretary of defense and the commander
of the Zambian army. For several months a Chinese military train-
ing group reportedly has been training regular
Zambian troops. in the past, China's training effort in Zambia
had been confined to the Zambian national service, a home-guard
type of organization.//
//As the USSR has become more involved in
southern A rica, Peking has shown increased interest in Kaunda's
position as a moderating influence in the region. Chinese offi-
cials in the region believe that the Soviets want to weaken
Kaunda's domestic political position, and thus divert him from
seeking a moderate solution to the problems of southern Africa.
By giving him support, Peking may hope to bolster Kaunda's po-
sition at home.//
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Kaunda, facing increasing danger of Rhodesian attacks,
wishes to improve Zambia's military capabilities without turn-
ing solely to the USSR and its allies. The Zambian leader is
suspicious of Soviet intentions and apparently still hopes that
a negotiated solution to the struggle in Rhodesia might be found.
Although the Chinese support black nationalist military efforts
against Rhodesia, Peking may not be adverse to a negotiated
settlement that works against Soviet interests.
FRANCE: Defense Cooperation
I I A French defense official has said that his country
might participate in some of the Zong-term NATO defense projects
proposed by Secretary Brown in Brussels last month if the proj-
ects were pursued through the Conference of National Armaments
Directors, an organization established after France puZZed out
of NATO in 1966.
I J The use of this forum, which includes all members of
NATO but is outside the NATO structure, would mean that national
control over defense decisions was preserved. The organization's
agenda is set by a directorate of the four principal Western
powers, on which France sits as an equal partner.
The official said that the areas of special interest
to France are:
--The licensing of common equipment designs.
--Air defense.
--Electronic warfare.
--Battle-management systems.
In March, France announced its decision to join the
NATO communications system and is considering participating in
NATO's airborne radar system.
French cooperation with other Western powers in these
areas--principally relating to conventional forces--is consis-
tent with the concepts of French defense policy stated by Presi-
dent Giscard and his chief of staff, General Mery, last June,
emphasizing the need for defense cooperation with the allies.
I I
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YUGOSLAVIA: Leadership Changes
I Yugoslav officials are leaking word that the party
wz soon establish a seven-man group to run its affairs. Other
party changes being mentioned are reducing the 47-man presidium
by half and renaming its 12-man executive committee the party
secretariat. If these changes are made, this will be the first
significant step the Yugoslavs have taken in over a decade to
streamline the party structure.
I I The new group will reportedly include President Tito,
Stane Do anc--Tito's second-in-command--and five other senior
leaders. No military figure has been mentioned. The absence of
a military figure is surprising given the current prominence of
the Yugoslav military and its expected importance in the future.
Such structural changes could play a role in clarify-
ing Tito-is wishes regarding a party successor. Dolanc will "lead
the work" of the new "political bureau" thus giving him a
stronger claim to be "first among equals" in the party's leader-
ship. Dolanc is younger and has less party leadership experience
than the other proposed members of the new group.
According to the leaked information, Dolanc will give
up his current post as head of the party executive committee,
and another younger politician, Branko Mikulic--party leader of
Bosnia-Hercegovina--will take over the secretariat. Mikulic has
a reputation as an energetic disciplinarian; this would be his
first important position in Belgrade. Dolanc and Mikulic have
had policy differences in the past.
I I A compact group would probably become the focal point
for decision-making. In the present party structure, collective
decision making supposedly rests with the presidium, but it is
too large to do this. In practice, Tito makes most key deci-
sions, and party structures rubber-stamp and implement them.
A "political bureau would be better able than the current pres-
idium to make decisions after Tito leaves the scene.
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The Soviets' decision to issue a Tass statement
yester ay condemning the latest Rhodesian raid into Mozambique
probably was prompted in part by their desire to appear no less
resolute than the US in supporting black African nationalism.
The Soviets may also have been seeking to please the Mozambic-
ans, who may have asked for some sign of Soviet support.
The Soviets probably were surprised by the US react-
ion to Rhodesia's move and may have hoped to gain some propa-
ganda advantage. Soviet media have condemned earlier Rhodesian
raids into Mozambique, but not at this level.
The language of the Soviet protest was strong. It
warned the Rhodesians that they were risking "grave inter-
national consequences" and reminded them of the USSR's recently
concluded friendship treaty with Mozambique.
Moscow's action is unlikely to impress the Africans.
The Soviets made no specific threats against the Rhodesians,
and the Soviet protest was not issued until several hours after
Rhodesia had announced that it had already withdrawn its forces.
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CANADA: Party Quebecois
//The Canadian provincial government in Quebec is
making a strong effort to build a moderate political image,
despite pressure from radical supporters to get on with the
business of independence. A Parti Quebecois convention last
weekend passed a resolution calling on the provincial govern-
ment to seek the greatest possible autonomy while remaining
a province, in sharp contrast to the referendum-before-negotia-
tions approach previously taken by the party. The convention
also dropped from the party constitution a demand for the gov-
ernment to withdraw from NATO and NORAD.//
//Provincial Premier Levesque left little doubt
at the convention that he intends to be his own boss. He made
it clear that his government will not be bound by party resolu-
tions, particularly demands for radical social legislation,
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which do not accord with his views. Provincial Culture Minister
Laurin underscored the theme by noting that the Quebec govern-
ment will be weighing modifications to the controversial lan-
guage bill that has spurred bitter opposition from business and
English-speaking interests.//
//The convention provided little of the expected
confrontation between government moderates and party militants,
but radical party activists can be expected to bring more pres-
sure on the Levesque government. They apparently were able to
elect at the convention a sizable bloc on the party's executive
committee, despite strong opposition from Levesque. Moreover,
the activists have the backing of many militants in Quebec's
major labor unions, who tend to see the establishment of a
socialist society as the province government's primary goal.//
//The labor unions have become the most outspoken
critics o the Parti Quebecois government. Some observers at-
tribute this to the heavy infiltration of the unions by leftists,
who are much more interested in class struggle than in Quebec
nationalism.//
//At Quebec's economic summit two weeks ago, lead-
ers of militant trade unions openly attacked government and
business representatives during what Levesque had hoped would
be a policy consensus session. Levesque at one time had believed
that he could use the strong feelings of euphoria and self-
confidence among the French-speaking population following his
party's election last November to rally broad support for a
comprehensive social and economic program.//
//The Quebec government also has the problem of
maintaining business confidence. The provincial government has
tried to take the edge off the militants' complaints with prom-
ises of anti-scab legislation and closed shops. This has fur-
ther unsettled the business community, which sees such conces-
sions as adding to the already high costs of doing business and
as another drag on industrial growth in Quebec.//
//There also remains the uncertainty of the govern-
ment's intentions on the language issue. Laurin on Monday
charged that the English-speaking business community has sys-
tematically excluded French speakers from head offices and up-
per administrative positions and that studies show English-
speakers are "over-represented" in higher positions, while
French-speakers handle most of the menial jobs.//
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//Levesque clearly would like to regain the popu-
larity an momentum his government enjoyed immediately follow-
ing the election. He apparently wants to play down independence,
thus allaying both labor's fears of unacceptable belt-tightening
among workers and the business community's nervousness about the
possible disruption of operations.//
//Levesque also seems to be moving the Parti Que-
becois toward becoming a middle-of-the-road political party.
In doing so, he runs the risk of provoking an open split with
the party's more radical followers, but in turn he is likely
to gain considerable support. amon both the French- and
-
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