CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A030800010070-2
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 11
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Sequence Number: 70
• Content Type: REPORT

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NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY CABLE
Monday 11 September 1978 CG NIDC 78/212
NATIONAL SECURITY INFORMATION
Unauthorized Disclosure Subject to Criminal Sanctions
State Dept. review completed
Top Secret
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National Intelli ence Dail Cable for Monda 11 September 1978
The NID Cable is for the purpose of informing
senior US officials.
LEBANON: Situation Report Page 1
IRAN: Relatively Quiet Weekend Page 2
INDIA-USSR: Visit to Moscow Page 3
RHODESIA: Situation Report Page 4
CUBA: Fishing for Hard Currency Page 5
UN: North - South Dialogue Page 6
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LEBANON: Situation Report
The steady erosion of the 9 August cease-fire in
Le anon continued this weekend with sporadic, heavy fighting
between Syrian soldiers and Christian militiamen in Beirut.
Fighting was centered in the Christian district of Ayn Rummanah
but also spread to the port area.
On each day, there was sniping in the late afternoon,
followed by artillery and mortar fire by both sides during the
night. The port area, as well as residential sections, were
shelled. One US ship unloading PL 480 foodstuffs was forced to
withdraw early Sunday, and the port was closed..
The Syrians appear to be using the Camp David talks
as an opportunity to keeps up the pressure'on the Christians in
Beirut. Nonetheless, Damascus probably does not want the fight-
ing to escalate at this time, especially as Syrian President
Assad is traveling to West Germany today and will be there until
Saturday. Moreover, the head of the pro-Syrian wing of the Leb-
anese Baath Party told US officials in Beirut that Syrian troops
in Beirut are still under orders not to fire unless fired upon.
In an interview with West German television yesterday,
Assad stressed that Syria has broad support for its role in Leb-
anon from the Muslim population as well as from such Christian
leaders as former President Fraajiyah. Assad argued that Syria's
goal in Lebanon was security, but that Israel was inciting the
militias toward war. Assad also said that Syrian forces were
ready-to withdraw from Lebanon if the Lebanese Government re-
quests that.
Most Christian leaders probably want to avoid a major
flareup at this time as well, but militia hardliners have been
intent on provoking a major crisis for some time and may exploit
the current fighting to achieve that objective.
In any case, the Christian militiamen in the streets
are often poorly disciplined and are likely to continue sniping
attacks and other provocations against the Syrians. Extremist
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National Liberal Party leader Camille Shamun yesterday reiter-
ated his call for an end to the Arab peacekeeping force's man-
date, which expires on 27 October.
IRAN: Relatively Quiet Weekend
mained relatively
visibly shaken by
to liberalization
//Iranian cities under martial law have re-
calm during the past two days. The Shah, while
recent events, has reconfirmed his commitment
and free parliamentary elections in 1979.//
Some gunfire was heard in Tehran on Saturday, but the
city was generally quiet over the weekend. The government has
arrested a number of political and religious leaders opposed
to the Shah, although the roundup apparently includes only
those involved in the illegal demonstrations on Thursday and
Friday.
//Ambassador Sullivan over the past few days
has met with the Shah, two cabinet members, and several high-
ranking military officers. He found some support, not only with-
in the military but in the cabinet as well, for reimposition of
a strong authoritarian regime to suppress the opposition. He
also found, however, that a significant group within the lead-
ership, including the Shah, remains determined to press on with
political liberalization and social and economic reforms--in-
cluding a clampdown on official corruption.//
//The Shah was described by the Ambassador
yesterday as "tired and unhappy but considerably more spirited"
than he had been a week earlier. He categorically denied that
he would abdicate or flee the country and accepted the proba-
bility that Iran will be in for a period of terrorist acts,
sabotage, and industrial strikes.//
The government presented a new program yesterday,
emphasizing protection of individual rights, freedom of expres-
sion, and creation of "a secure environment" in which free elec-
tions can be held. During the introduction of the program, a
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few opposition and independent deputies marched out to protest
the deaths that occurred in clashes between demonstrators and
troops on Friday.
On Saturday, the Shah accepted the resignation of
Minister of Court Amir Abas Hoveyda. Hoveyda has long been a
close adviser to the throne and was prime minister from 1965 to
1977. He has long been rumored to be a Bahai, a sect strongly 25X1
denounced by Muslim leaders, and his ouster could be another
conciliatory gesture by the Shah toward at least his moderate
opponents within Muslim ranks.
//Indian Foreign Minister Vajpayee arrives in
Moscow today to test Soviet willingness to supply India with
nuclear fuel, assure Soviet leaders about his forthcoming trip
to China, and raise the issue of Soviet involvement in Afghan- 25X1
istan.//
//Vajpayee will also seek to reassure the So-
viet leadership about his planned visit to Peking later this
year. He is likely to assure Moscow that any improvement in
Sino-Indian relations would not jeopardize relations with the
USSR, and that the border issue between India and China is not
likely to be settled easily or soon because of resistance with-
in India's ruling Janata coalition.//
//In wide-ranging discussions about political
trends in Asia, Vajpayee is likely to reiterate India's concern
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about President Taraki's narrowing political base in Afghani-
stan. The Indians fear that, if disaffected officers move to
overthrow the regime, Pakistan might become involved and Taraki
would call for Soviet military assistance. Vajpayee is likely
to advise Moscow against any such action because New Delhi be-
lieves it would seriously undermine the power balance in the
area.//
//The Soviets, while reiterating their support
for the Taraki regime, will try to assure Vajpayee that Moscow
shares the same concerns and, in any event. would. be very re-
luctant to commit troops to Afghanistan.
RHODESIA: Situation Report
Prime Minister Smith announced a partial imposition
of martial Law in Rhodesia yesterday, and the government began
arresting political officials of the internal wing of the Zim-
babwe African People's Union.
Smith disclosed few details, but said specific mea-
sures would be implemented soon as conditions warrant. He said
the government had also considered a general mobilization but
indicated that he hoped such an action could be avoided. Smith's
statement represents an attempt to boost sagging white morale
and dampen growing criticism of the government in the wake of
the shooting down of a Rhodesian airliner by ZAPU guerrillas
last week.
Smith's announcement could spur more whites to con-
sider leaving Rhodesia. White emigration has been running high
because of the lack of progress toward ending the insurgency.
Smith made no mention of any new settlement initiatives, and
some whites probably will view the new measures as further evi-
dence of the failure of the internal settlement with moderate
blacks.
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CUBA: Fishing for Hard Currency
Cuba, with help from the USSR, has developed a com-
petitive high seas fishing fleet that has become an earner of
hard currency second only to sugar. The modern Cuban fleet has
increased its catch significantly over the past decade and
plans a 60-percent increase over its 1977 catch by 1980. Some
foreign waters traditionally worked by Cuban fishermen are or
will be closed, posing a strong challenge to Havana to exploit
new areas that will be needed to make up for expected short-
faZls.
Cuban fishing, once confined to local waters, now
ranges from Canadian and US waters to West Africa, the central
Atlantic off Argentina and Brazil, and the southeastern Pacific
off South America. In 1966, Cubans started fishing in waters
off Canada and the northeastern US; these areas, together with
the west coast of Africa, have accounted for most of the in-
crease in Cuba's fish catch since the. early 1970s.
Since 1960, Cuba's fish catch has increased more than
sixfold to around 220,000 tons a year in 1977. By 1980, Cuba
plans to_increase its catch to 350,000 tons.
Hard-currency earnings from the fishing industry have
increased along with the catch and now stand at $84 million--up
from $23 million in 1970 and only $1 million in 1960. Shrimp
and lobster account for 90 percent of these earnings. Much of
the lobster and shrimp is taken from Mexico's Campeche Bay and
the Gulf of Mexico. Cuba, however, has agreed to end lobster
and shrimp'fishing in Mexican waters by 1980. Restrictions in
waters off Argentina, Brazil, and the US will also reduce Cuba's
total fish catch and could cause hard-currency earnings to de-
cline if new fishing areas are not found.
The Cubans, like the Soviets, have strengthened ties
with other countries through technical cooperation agreements
for maritime fisheries. In 1972, they signed an agreement with
Guyana to develop a fish processing complex.
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Yemen, Peru, Sao Tome/Principe, and Vietnam. Cuban assistance
includes full-time training at Cuba's fisheries school and
the provision of boats and equipment. In return, the Cubans
have gained access to fishing grounds within their partners'
200-mile maritime zones.
Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Guyana, Jamaica, Mozambique, South
Cuba has fishing agreements with Angola, Benin,
25X1 Much of Cuba's future success in fishing will depend
on whether it can efficiently exploit new fishing areas. If
the new ventures do not live up to their potential, it: may be
difficult for Havana to meet its planned catch of 350,000 tons
in 1980. Its new ventures in West African waters and off Guyana
would be able to make up the expected shortfall resulting from
25X1 newly imposed restrictions, but these areas have not yet been
fully exploited.
UN: North - South Dialogue
and monitor discussions between industrialized and developing
countries on international economic issues was suspended shortly
after it convened on Friday because of an impasse over the role
and functions of the committee. The issue of clarifying the
committee's mandate, originally drawn up by the UN General As-
sembly in December, will now have to be resolved by the 33rd
General Assembly, which convenes next week. The developing
countries are likely to view the meeting's failure, and espe-
ciaZZy perceived US intransigence on this and other issues, as
another indication of the Zoss of momentum in the North-South
dialogue.
A meeting of the new UN committee created to 2versee
o the committee's mandate--which reflect the underlying dis-
agreements in establishing the committee--have stymied any sub-
stantive progress from the beginning. The industrialized coun-
tries insist that the committee's mandate specifically precludes
Differences of opinion regarding the interpretation
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a negotiating role. They view the committee as a forum for
in-depth review of international economic issues to facilitate
negotiations in other UN organizations.
The developing countries, however, want a negotiating
role for the committee and concrete commitments on the part of
industrialized countries. They had also hoped that through the
committee they could influence technical negotiations conducted
by specialized UN agencies.
A session in May had ended inconclusively when par-
ticipants could not agree on any final documents reflecting
committee discussions. Informal consultations held during the
summer failed to define the role of the committee, and this
session opened amid growing tension and uncertainty among the
participants over the committee's future, and more broadly over
the state of North-South relations in general.
The committee's suspension prior to the opening of
the General Assembly will undoubtedly affect the attitudes of
both developing and industrialized countries as they shape
policies for the General Assembly, and also for the prepara-
tions under way on the Fifth UN Conference on Trade and Develop-
ment scheduled for next May. 25X1
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