ANALYSIS OF POSSIBLE FUTURE CONTINGENCIES IN EAST ASIA

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP83M00914R002700030002-2
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 3
• Document Creation Date: December 19, 2016
• Document Release Date: January 24, 2007
• Sequence Number: 2
• Publication Date: November 30, 1982
• Content Type: MEMO

 Approved For Release 2007/01/24: CIA-RDP83M00914R002700030002-2
SECRET
The Director of Central Intelligence
Washington, D. C.20505
23 November 1982
MEMORANDUM FOR: Chairman, National Intelligence Council
FROM: Director of Central Intelligence
SUBJECT: Analysis of Possible Future
Contingencies
Why don't we try to see what the other
geographic NIOs come up with as subjects in their
area for this kind of far out brainstorming.
William J. Casey
Approved For Release 2007/01/24: CIA-RDP83M00914ROO2700030002-2
 Approved For Release 2007/01/igcc i ,-R DP83M00914R002700030002-2
NIC 9700-82
THE DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE
National Intelligence Council
30 November 1982
MEMORANDUM FOR: Director of Central Intelligence
Deputy Director of Central Intelligence
THROUGH : Chairman, National Intelligence Council
FROM
National Intellig
ence Officer for East Asia
SUBJECT : Analysis of Possible Future Contingencies in East Asia
1. has sent you a memo listing contingency papers
he plans to write in a coming months. His papers will address the
consequences of various possible radical changes in his area.
2. East Asia is far more stable than the Near East. Indeed among the
major areas of the world none is more supportive of US foreign policy and
more receptive to US trade and investment than East Asia, with the partial
exception of Western Europe. Accordingly, my list of contingency papers is
fairly short:
-- Sino-Soviet talks are more successful than expected, altering the
geopolitical map in fundamental ways.
-- Philippine base negotiations bog down and collapse, souring US-
Philippine relations